Are the Cubs REALLY out of it??

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Look, no long-timer here is under any illlusion about my opinion regarding the current incarnation of the Cubs and its brain-trust, such as it is. Shoot, my sig alone should tell eveything regarding where I've been on the matter (such siggy existing for nearly three YEARS now). And we're all (presumably) lucid and sane regarding the Cubs disaster that is 2006 and the reasons forthwith. Yet....

 

I can' shake the thought that we're just 9.5 games out of the wild card with 5.5 weeks yet to play. We have one of the five best pitchers in baseball (Z), a bonafide all-star at 3B and C, several interesting young starting pitchers, a deep bench, an respectable leadoff man/CF, and a nice bullpen. So...

 

Is it possible??

[Sabermetrician]

No.

 

(too many teams to catch)

[Big Fergie J]

My answer is the same as the one above me.

[otis89]

Possible? Yes. Anything's possible. Likely? No.

[USSoccer]

I'll play along...

 

In order for Cobs to be considered as being in the race by 9/15, they would have to go on a Dodger-like tear where they win 17 out of 18 or so. During Baker's nearly 4 years as manager, the longest win streak Cobs have had is 7, IIRC. We do have a top-5 SP, but after that top-5 SP, we have nothing near the potential for consistency you would require to sustain that kind of run. Not to say that Mateo hasn't been very encouraging, and that Hill has performed better of late, but can you envision our SP pitching well enough over a 3 week stretch to only lose 1 game? I can't, and nor do I think our offense is potent enough to be able to absorb the occasional disaster start by O'Malley, Hill, Mateo, Marmol and Guzman, and that's not even bringing Rusch into this. We couldn't even run off that kind of streak with Wood, Prior, Z, Clement and Maddux as our rotation, AND with a much better offense in 2004. So I don't think it's possible, because even if the stars alligned and we did rip off a 17 of 18 type streak, there's a real chance we'd still be 6-7 games back even after all that, because nearly the entire league is ahead of us.

 

What I think is possible is the team getting to within 5-10 of .500 by the end of the season, which is a shame, since this division was really, really winnable, and we were not able to field the proper team to take advantage of a weak dog of a NL.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

USS,

 

I'm with you, but that's what so maddening. The Dodgers? Why can't the Cubs replicate that? Unlikely yes, but.....

 

Perpetually and hopelessly a Cub fan......

[NCCubFan]

Is it possible??

Yes, just like it's possible I'll become a millionnaire in the next lottery drawing. And I think their chances are about the same as that happening.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

 

What I think is possible is the team getting to within 5-10 of .500 by the end of the season, which is a shame, since this division was really, really winnable, and we were not able to field the proper team to take advantage of a weak dog of a NL.

 

The sad thing is the Cubs have the best record in the division at 36-28. So, they have taken advantage of weak competition within the division. They have the best record in the NL against the Central, and the worst record in the NL against the other two divisions. They also went 4-11 in interleague play. It's not a case of the Cubs not traveling well because they have the worst home record in the NL as well. It's been a strange season and the Cubs will be lucky to win 75 games.

[UMFan83]

USS,

 

I'm with you, but that's what so maddening. The Dodgers? Why can't the Cubs replicate that? Unlikely yes, but.....

 

Perpetually and hopelessly a Cub fan......

 

The Dodgers have talent?

[USSoccer]

USS,

 

I'm with you, but that's what so maddening. The Dodgers? Why can't the Cubs replicate that? Unlikely yes, but.....

 

Perpetually and hopelessly a Cub fan......

 

We can't replicate it because the Dodgers have a much better pitching staff than we do.

 

I wish it would happen, too, Don. It's just far too unlikely given what we have to work with, and given our recent history.

[polosprt009]

I agree with everyone so far on this matter, even though there is always a part of me feeling like there is still a chance, no matter how far out of it they may be. While we sit 9.5 gb with 5 1/2 to go, part of me is thinking "well, if they crawl 1.5 or 2 games up the wildcard latter a week, there is a chance." But then the reality hits in that there are way too many teams to sneak past to defeat this feat. Looking to the past, there have been miraculous come backs before, for example the 78 Yankess. In mid July, they were 14gb, behind three teams. By mid august, they were in first place in their division and eventually went to the post season. That makes ya wonder about how a team was able to go from 14 games back to first place in one months time, though they had a great team with a winning percentage of over .500 even when they were 14 games back. It would take a team of mainly talented players to accomplish quite a surprise comeback like that (which we don't have), and also not have that many teams to crawl past (back then- 3, us-11).

 

In all reality, unless the cubs just go on a terror spree like the Dodgers, I don't see the stars lining up for the Cubs this year, even though it is nice to dream..

[UMFan83]

Here's another reason why the Cubs can't do it. Consider the .500 mark the barrometer for a WC (which of course is a bit of a stretch)

 

Sure the Cubs have played decent lately, but during their little "run", they've played 7 games over .500 over a 25 game stretch (16-9). They would need to play 16 games over .500 over a 40 game stretch (28-12). And then pray that one of the 11 teams above us doesn't somehow play well enough to win 82 games.

 

 

NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN :)

[JGalt73]

Per Baseball Prospectus odds:

 

Cubs chance for postseason: 0.114%

 

As mentioned above, the sad fact is that the NL is so weak:

 

Average # of wins to take the NL Central: 86

Average # of wins to take the NL Wild Card: 84.5

[CubinNY]

I think the Cubs are out of it.

 

However, if by some miricle that they manage to get back into by mid-september, to a large extent, it will be because of rookies and young players.

 

I hope this fact isn't lost on Dusty and Jim.

 

Even if they don't get back into it, they've played much better as of late.

 

But even if they do it will be in spite of Dusty and not becuase of Dusty.

 

FREE MATT MURTON!

[rawaction]

I'll be rooting for the Cubs to win every single game from here on out, but the best thing for this franchise would be to wind up as the 15th best team in the NL. First of all, gives them the 4th draft pick. Secondly, it gets rid of Baker. Thirdly (and most importantly), it doesn't give this management any false hope. If the Cubs end within 5 games of the wildcard, I believe management will look at it as a positive. I think Hendry will see a team that lost Lee, Wood, and Prior for at least 2/3 of the season each, suffered thru Pierre struggling horribly to start the year and still somewhat competed and not think his team needs a major overhaul...which is bad for this organization.

 

That being said, the Cubs do have 19 games left vs. a division they have nearly dominated. They end with a Rockies team that has slumped badly at times in the 2nd half. But they also have 7 vs. the Phillies who have played well as of late. And 3 vs. the Dodgers who have been world beaters.

 

Basically, they do have a chance to make a mini-run, but not enough to win the wildcard. At worst, they are still ahead of the Pirates. I think at best, they finish among the teams like Atlanta and Milwaukee, 4-6 games back of the WC, and about 8th to 10th best team in the NL.

[Backtobanks]

Look, no long-timer here is under any illlusion about my opinion regarding the current incarnation of the Cubs and its brain-trust, such as it is. Shoot, my sig alone should tell eveything regarding where I've been on the matter (such siggy existing for nearly three YEARS now). And we're all (presumably) lucid and sane regarding the Cubs disaster that is 2006 and the reasons forthwith. Yet....

 

I can' shake the thought that we're just 9.5 games out of the wild card with 5.5 weeks yet to play. We have one of the five best pitchers in baseball (Z), a bonafide all-star at 3B and C, several interesting young starting pitchers, a deep bench, an respectable leadoff man/CF, and a nice bullpen. So...

 

Is it possible??

 

No it's not going to happen this year, but for all of the naysayers I think there is a possibility that this team could be in contention next year. Probably the biggest reason is that it's the NL Central, but I've said all along that I'm hoping for 1 FA signing (Schmidt), 1 impact bat acquired in a trade involving a package of Murton/Cedeno/Pie, Marshall/Hill/Guzman/Marmol/Mateo, plus other prospects, and our share of luck and health (Cubs are way overdue). It would be great if Miller can stick as #4 or #5 starter.

[CubColtPacer]

My prediction is that we'd have to go 30-10 to win the wildcard-the number of teams don't concern me very much since nobody can seem to break .500-4 or 5 over will probably win the wildcard, and we'd have to go 30-10 to get there. Is that possible? Yes-is it going to take a great deal of luck with this team? Absolutely. It would be interesting though if those 6 games against Cincy in September matter at all.

[rawaction]

Look, no long-timer here is under any illlusion about my opinion regarding the current incarnation of the Cubs and its brain-trust, such as it is. Shoot, my sig alone should tell eveything regarding where I've been on the matter (such siggy existing for nearly three YEARS now). And we're all (presumably) lucid and sane regarding the Cubs disaster that is 2006 and the reasons forthwith. Yet....

 

I can' shake the thought that we're just 9.5 games out of the wild card with 5.5 weeks yet to play. We have one of the five best pitchers in baseball (Z), a bonafide all-star at 3B and C, several interesting young starting pitchers, a deep bench, an respectable leadoff man/CF, and a nice bullpen. So...

 

Is it possible??

 

No it's not going to happen this year, but for all of the naysayers I think there is a possibility that this team could be in contention next year. Probably the biggest reason is that it's the NL Central, but I've said all along that I'm hoping for 1 FA signing (Schmidt), 1 impact bat acquired in a trade involving a package of Murton/Cedeno/Pie, Marshall/Hill/Guzman/Marmol/Mateo, plus other prospects, and our share of luck and health (Cubs are way overdue). It would be great if Miller can stick as #4 or #5 starter.

 

I agree that the Cubs can compete next year, but you are also counting on nobody else making any kind of moves. The Mets will still be the class of the NL. They will be a major player for Zito, IMO. The Cards aren't gonna be happy with this season and I don't think we can count on them settling for mediocrity in LF, RF, and 2B. The Brewers have a lot of young guys that will be a year older, they will have a healthy Sheets and money this offseason. The Phillies will have money.

[snoodmonger]

So you're saying there's a chance!

[Soul]

So you're saying there's a chance!

 

:lol: nice one.

[biittner77]

. If the Cubs end within 5 games of the wildcard, I believe management will look at it as a positive. I think Hendry will see a team that lost Lee, Wood, and Prior for at least 2/3 of the season each, suffered thru Pierre struggling horribly to start the year and still somewhat competed and not think his team needs a major overhaul...which is bad for this organization.

 

.

 

I understand what you're saying but if they are able to play that well with the team they have to they really need an overhaul? The pitching is young and should improve. Hendry has already said he's not going to count on "certain guys" to be healthy. A healthy Lee makes this offense much more potent. Free Cedeno and Murton from the current coaching staff and they should improve upon their rookie year production.

 

This team does have some serious flaws. But the division- which is bad this year- doesn't look to get much better in 07. The Cards have lost their luster. The Astros may lose their 2 best starting pitchers in Clemens and Oswalt. The Reds won't get the kind of pitching they got this year. The Brewers will probably be favord to win the division. The Brewers!

 

In any case it doesn't matter. Hendry's not going to overhaul this team. He needs to win now to save his job.

[Yestheydo]

Not without Neifi

[soccer10k]

Only if the Cubs are allowed to play St. Louis every day for the rest of the year.

[goonys evil twin]

I can' shake the thought that we're just 9.5 games out of the wild card with 5.5 weeks yet to play. We have one of the five best pitchers in baseball (Z), a bonafide all-star at 3B and C, several interesting young starting pitchers, a deep bench, an respectable leadoff man/CF, and a nice bullpen. So...

 

Is it possible??

 

One day later and they're 10.5 games back of the wild card with just 39 to play.

 

Oh, and they don't have a deep bench either, they have an awful bench.

[Dirt Dog Sparly]

 

One day later and they're 10.5 games back of the wild card with just 39 to play.

 

Oh, and they don't have a deep bench either, they have an awful bench.

 

 

That is why they dont have a realistic chance. Bynum will turn into the new Neffi and get ABs someone else should be getting. Cedeno needs to play. Period. Only way he gets better.

 

Mabry needs to sit and watch and get a spot start once every 7 to 10 days. When Nevin and Pagan are your power off the bench....

 

Its been look forward to next year about two weeks after DLees wrist. Just another tease from the Cubs.