Please educate me

[Peoriaman]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

[goonys evil twin]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

 

3/$15m right fielder

3 good prospects + $5.75m + potentially many more millions of dollars

$2.8m

 

 

Do you seriously need this explained to you?

[Sammy Sofa]

I think it's still a stretch to say Corey is a "favorite" at this point. Like it was just pointed out, given how much he would have cost he's the lesser of 3 evils when compared to Jones or Pierre.

[soapy]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

 

3/$15m right fielder

3 good prospects + $5.75m + potentially many more millions of dollars

$2.8m

 

 

Do you seriously need this explained to you?

What he said.

 

The biggest beef with Jones and Pierre (for many people) is the amount paid and/or given up for them. You could have Patterson in CF giving you the same prediction (over the course of the season, so far) as Pierre and save money and still have the three pitchers given up in the Pierre trade.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

 

3/$15m right fielder

3 good prospects + $5.75m + potentially many more millions of dollars

$2.8m

 

 

Do you seriously need this explained to you?

What he said.

 

The biggest beef with Jones and Pierre (for many people) is the amount paid and/or given up for them. You could have Patterson in CF giving you the same prediction (over the course of the season, so far) as Pierre and save money and still have the three pitchers given up in the Pierre trade.

 

Thirded

[Peoriaman]

OK, I was thinking statistically, not financially. Thanks.

[dalgreen]

OK, I was thinking statistically, not financially. Thanks.

 

This will likely tick a lot of people off, but I still think there is a bias for young home grown players. I hate the contracts and what we gave up to get Jones and Pierre, but I don't blame them for signing contracts they knew they'd only get from the Cubs. Should I be hated because I signed a $5 million a year contract even though I've not played competitive baseball since I was 12?

 

Again, I hate what we gave up and the contracts they have, but I think they'd be stupid for not signing any overpaid contract. Hendry seems to have a fixation with this.

[goonys evil twin]

This will likely tick a lot of people off, but I still think there is a bias for young home grown players.

 

This is true. I would prefer to see homegrown guys instead of journeyman. But a lot of that is based on the fact that using homegrown guys is more efficient than going out and signing/trading for other guys.

 

I'd have had no problem if they replaced Patterson with some expensive stud. My problem is they didn't really upgrade but spent a lot anyway.

[Outshined_One]

My other problem is that they gave up CPatt for a whole lot of nothing.

 

Granted, his trade value wasn't very high at the time, but neither prospect the Cubs got for him will likely amount to much...if anything.

[Backtobanks]

Of course, the real question is whether Corey would have produced those numbers with the Wrigley boobirds, the Chicago media, and most of the posters at NSBB pressuring him. I always liked Corey, but he had to leave under the circumstances.

[cheapseats]

Of course, the real question is whether Corey would have produced those numbers with the Wrigley boobirds, the Chicago media, and most of the posters at NSBB pressuring him. I always liked Corey, but he had to leave under the circumstances.

 

I'm not saying that pressure doesn't have an effect, but he's producing almost exactly at his PECOTA projection, and that projection took last season into account - in fact, it weighted it more heavily than any other season.

 

I think the fans would have been forgiving this year if he were in the 7 or 8 spot, where he should have been all along.

 

And his speed would actually be useful at those spots in the order.

 

Hendry sold Patterson when his value was at rock bottom. It would have been better to have held onto him even if he were going to be the fourth outfielder.

 

And Hendry has a history of doing things like this. Juan Cruz was ranked higher than Carlos Zambrano and, at one time, Mark Prior, but Hendry held onto him too long and ended up getting Andy Pratt.

 

All that to say goony's point is valid.

 

Corey is actually producing at a level above what he is being paid, and Jacque/Juan are producing at a level below what they're being paid. And we gave up Ricky Nolasco, who would have been the Cubs 3rd best starting pitcher this year. The two pitchers directly above him in VORP rankings are Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez. And he's making league minimum.

 

Awful, awful decisions in the offseason.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

 

There is NO WAY under the current REGIME in Chicago, that Patterson would have put up those numbers in Chicago. Now I hate the fact that Hendry paid out 3 prospect + $15 mill (competing with the Royals for Jones, btw) for two players very similar statisically to Patterson.

 

Let's face it.....CPatt will never be the player the Cubs hyped him up to be. And while the Cubs got nothing for him, it was still the best course of action for both the franchise and Patterson. Agree with the decision or not, it was made. And now we have to hope that Felix Pie doesn't become the NEW CPatt.

[DiamondMind]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

 

3/$15m right fielder

3 good prospects + $5.75m + potentially many more millions of dollars

$2.8m

 

 

Do you seriously need this explained to you?

 

I don't think he ever asked for you to explain anything to him.

 

Patterson's lack of plate discipline and situational hitting cancels out his OPS in my opinion. Stolen bases from the 6-slot in the order aren't critical to a team's offensive production either. Jones, however, has just as bad discipline and situational hitting and also plays a very easily replaceable corner outfield position. I think Pierre would be better suited as a 2-hole hitter due to his ability to make contact and lay down the bunt. As far as the 2007 leadoff and 2-hole hitter for the Cubs, I have no idea.

[samhainn77]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

 

3/$15m right fielder

3 good prospects + $5.75m + potentially many more millions of dollars

$2.8m

 

 

Do you seriously need this explained to you?

 

I don't think he ever asked for you to explain anything to him.

 

Patterson's lack of plate discipline and situational hitting cancels out his OPS in my opinion. Stolen bases from the 6-slot in the order aren't critical to a team's offensive production either. Jones, however, has just as bad discipline and situational hitting and also plays a very easily replaceable corner outfield position. I think Pierre would be better suited as a 2-hole hitter due to his ability to make contact and lay down the bunt. As far as the 2007 leadoff and 2-hole hitter for the Cubs, I have no idea.

 

The title of the thread is "Please Educate me"... I believe he wanted an explanation.

 

You can talk about plate discipline and situational hitting (the latter of which I feel could be renamed "wasted at bat") all you want. Compared head to head, without a consideration for what it took to get Pierre, I'd take Patterson over Juan any day of the week. I would have said the same thing last year. An out is an out, unless it's a double play. How exactly does Juan have a far superior plate discipline when he refuses to take a walk? A groundout to 2nd is the same as a strikeout unless there is a runner on first...then it's likely worse. Yet Patterson has the edge in SLG, Defense, Age, throwing arm, and upside. Throw in what it took to get Juan and what we got for Patterson and you're looking at a huge net loss, especially when you consider Pierre is a FA this year.

[wastra]

Patterson 279/313/426

 

Jones 277/315/486

 

Pierre 284/329/382

 

Many people here criticize Pierre and Jones, but aren't they comparable or even better than Patterson, who seems to be now a favorite here? What am I missing?

 

3/$15m right fielder

3 good prospects + $5.75m + potentially many more millions of dollars

$2.8m

 

 

Do you seriously need this explained to you?

 

I don't think he ever asked for you to explain anything to him.

 

Patterson's lack of plate discipline and situational hitting cancels out his OPS in my opinion. Stolen bases from the 6-slot in the order aren't critical to a team's offensive production either. Jones, however, has just as bad discipline and situational hitting and also plays a very easily replaceable corner outfield position. I think Pierre would be better suited as a 2-hole hitter due to his ability to make contact and lay down the bunt. As far as the 2007 leadoff and 2-hole hitter for the Cubs, I have no idea.

 

Stolen bases are not critical to a team's success no matter where they are in the order. Historically, Stolen bases=virtually no correlation to a team's record.

 

Pierre isn't a good leadoff or #2 hitter unless he can hit .325 because he can't get on base otherwise.

[DiamondMind]

 

Pierre isn't a good leadoff or #2 hitter unless he can hit .325 because he can't get on base otherwise.

 

I don't think they are necessarily 'critical' to a teams success either, but something has to be said for the non-measurable attributes speed creates like annoying the crap out of the opposing pitcher and him throwing a fastball that catches too much of the plate.

 

Also, what can be said about players like '03 Lofton, '05 Damon/D. Roberts and '05 Podsednik directly leading to a teams playoff success?

[Soriano12]

Of course, the real question is whether Corey would have produced those numbers with the Wrigley boobirds, the Chicago media, and most of the posters at NSBB pressuring him. I always liked Corey, but he had to leave under the circumstances.

 

I'm not saying that pressure doesn't have an effect, but he's producing almost exactly at his PECOTA projection, and that projection took last season into account - in fact, it weighted it more heavily than any other season.

 

I think the fans would have been forgiving this year if he were in the 7 or 8 spot, where he should have been all along.

 

And his speed would actually be useful at those spots in the order.

 

Hendry sold Patterson when his value was at rock bottom. It would have been better to have held onto him even if he were going to be the fourth outfielder.

 

And Hendry has a history of doing things like this. Juan Cruz was ranked higher than Carlos Zambrano and, at one time, Mark Prior, but Hendry held onto him too long and ended up getting Andy Pratt.

 

All that to say goony's point is valid.

 

Corey is actually producing at a level above what he is being paid, and Jacque/Juan are producing at a level below what they're being paid. And we gave up Ricky Nolasco, who would have been the Cubs 3rd best starting pitcher this year. The two pitchers directly above him in VORP rankings are Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez. And he's making league minimum.

 

Awful, awful decisions in the offseason.

 

spot on..... good post.

 

Lets say you have a stock thats dogging....it has hit rock bottom and you

are 99% sure it can't go any lower..do you sell that stock..or keep it for just a little bit longer...hoping to get more for it...most folks choose the latter.

[DiamondMind]

Hendry does an A+ job in trading to acquire talent, and an F in trading away talent. He'd make a poor day-trader, for sure.

[abuck1220]

 

Patterson's lack of plate discipline and situational hitting cancels out his OPS in my opinion.

 

how can his late of discipline "cancel out" his OPS? his lack of discipline is factored into OPS (thru OBP). that's like saying the outs a guy makes cancels out his batting average.

[Andy]

 

Pierre isn't a good leadoff or #2 hitter unless he can hit .325 because he can't get on base otherwise.

 

I don't think they are necessarily 'critical' to a teams success either, but something has to be said for the non-measurable attributes speed creates like annoying the crap out of the opposing pitcher and him throwing a fastball that catches too much of the plate.

 

Also, what can be said about players like '03 Lofton, '05 Damon/D. Roberts and '05 Podsednik directly leading to a teams playoff success?

I'll assume you mean '04 with Damon and Roberts (since that was the year the Sox won it all) and give you each guy's numbers for that season:

 

Lofton (with the Cubs) in 2003: 327/381/471

Damon in 04: 304/380/477, 20 home runs

Roberts (with the Sox) in 04: 256/330/442

Podsednik in 05: 290/351/349

 

The answers to your questions are: Lofton and Damon were shots in the arm because they got on base at over a .380 clip, and slugged nearly .500, which is pretty good for a CF, not because of "situational hitting" or stealing bases. (For Damon you also can add in the fact that he hit 20 homers, which any team can and should take out of their leadoff man or CF every time).

 

Roberts probably hurt the Sox more than he helped most of his time there except for that one stolen base, which clouds everyone's judgment on him.

 

Podsednik was no more than average for a leadoff hitter, and when you factor in that he was only 59/82 in SB (72 percent), his running around probably hurt the team more than it helped. Oh, and his .700 OPS was absolutely awful (AWFUL) for a LF. The fact that he is largely credited with that team's success is one of the biggest jokes in baseball history.

[wastra]

 

Pierre isn't a good leadoff or #2 hitter unless he can hit .325 because he can't get on base otherwise.

 

I don't think they are necessarily 'critical' to a teams success either, but something has to be said for the non-measurable attributes speed creates like annoying the crap out of the opposing pitcher and him throwing a fastball that catches too much of the plate.

 

Also, what can be said about players like '03 Lofton, '05 Damon/D. Roberts and '05 Podsednik directly leading to a teams playoff success?

 

 

No one is saying speed doesn't matter. given the choice, you ALWAYS want a guy who can hit a ton AND run well over the guy who can hit a ton and not run well. But according to statistics, it has been shown that stolen bases have no correllation with a team's offensive production over the course of a year. The teams with high SB totals do NOT tend to be the highest scoring teams. I believe Bill James showed that a TEAM has to be successful in something like 80-85% of its steal attempts before it even becomes run-positive over teh course of a year.

 

So whether a guy steals bases or not can be useful in an isolated instance, but over the course of 162 games, it's not going to impact yoru team ina greatly meaningful way.

 

 

Ultimately, James has shown that stastically, OBP is the far and away most important stat, with slugging second. Why? The bottom line is that no matter HOW you get on base, the team that can send more people to the plate in a given inning before making 3 outs tends to score more runs. (another reason why, over the long haul, Baker's infatuation with the sacrifice bunt is hurting our run-scoring ability. giving up outs is a bad idea.)

 

Pierre's problem is that his BP is not the result of patience, it's of getting "lucky" with his weakly hit bloops and grounders finding holes. When he's "on," it's fine. But like all guys who swing away and rarely take pitches, it means he's prone to slumps. If Adam Dunn (let's even ignore the power right now) slumps and hits .210 for a month, he's likely still helping his team because he's still taking walks and getting on base at a .350 clip, creating scoring opportunities each time he does. If Pierre slumps to .210, he's only getting on base at a .230 clip, so he's actually hurting the team through his plate approach in that situation. hence, he needs to hit .325+ to be helping the team.

 

So first things first, the Cubs need patient, high OBP guys at the top of the order. Given a choice between otherwise equal players, obviously take the guy with speed.

[UBlink]

So first things first, the Cubs need patient, high OBP guys at the top of the order. Given a choice between otherwise equal players, obviously take the guy with speed.

 

The Cubs need patient, high OBP guys all through the order.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't think he ever asked for you to explain anything to him.

 

 

It sure as hell looked like he was asking for an explanation.

[fromthestretch]

 

Pierre isn't a good leadoff or #2 hitter unless he can hit .325 because he can't get on base otherwise.

 

I don't think they are necessarily 'critical' to a teams success either, but something has to be said for the non-measurable attributes speed creates like annoying the crap out of the opposing pitcher and him throwing a fastball that catches too much of the plate.

 

Also, what can be said about players like '03 Lofton, '05 Damon/D. Roberts and '05 Podsednik directly leading to a teams playoff success?

 

The only thing that needs to be said is that it doesn't affect pitchers nearly as much as you might think. I don't think you'll find many pitchers that let runners "annoy the crap" out of them. If fast runners consistently have that affect on them, especially at the major league level, perhaps they should see a sports psychologist.

 

Maddux has spent his entire career giving runners the cold shoulder, and it seems to have worked well for him.

[Outshined_One]

There is something to be said for whether or not Corey would be procuding like this in Chicago due to Dusty and his merry band of idiots continuing to wreck him.

 

Cripes, I bet CPatt has nightmares of Gene Clines teaching him how to pick up a high four seam fastball.