What I'm most upset about after the deadline

[UK1679666180]

Tim, here's an interesting look at Abreu's numbers this year compared to his overall career numbers.

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/verducci_v_abreu/

 

That separation between runners on and runners off is amazing, despite the lack of future correlation, it adds value to what he has done this year.

[Guest]

Interesting.

 

The Cubs would look SO much better going into next year with an OF of Murton/Jones/Abreu already in place it's ridiculous.

[neely crenshaw]

we all talk about obp and then you rip abreu because his power is down?

what does he have 4000 walks this season? obp of .900?

if we can add a solid defender(who can actually throw the ball) who has a obp of .400+, whouldn't that be better than a ss who has an obp of .280 with slugging of .330?

yeah he costs more(which is the problem) but we pay jones, pierre, wood, neifi and glendon roughly 30 million dollars a year. i think we could spend a little more wisely.

[goonys evil twin]

we all talk about obp and then you rip abreu because his power is down?

 

Who is "you"?

[neely crenshaw]

no one in general just the posters that feel we shoudln't get abreu because his power is down.

i should have said "they" probably.

[Guest]

no one in general just the posters that feel we shoudln't get abreu because his power is down.

i should have said "they" probably.

"some people" works, too. ;)

[BigbadB]

I'm officially writing off the 2007 season. The Cubs will suck again next year. Book it.

 

Thanks Hendry.

[frostwyrm]

I'm officially writing off the 2007 season. The Cubs will suck again next year. Book it.

 

Thanks Hendry.

I think it's a little early to get that negative about 2007, and I'm a guy who even before opening day wanted the Cubs to quickly fall out of contention in 2006.

[BigbadB]

I'm officially writing off the 2007 season. The Cubs will suck again next year. Book it.

 

Thanks Hendry.

I think it's a little early to get that negative about 2007, and I'm a guy who even before opening day wanted the Cubs to quickly fall out of contention in 2006.

 

Hendry will be back for another year. Neifi, Izturis, Jones will all be back, and quite possibly Pierre as well.

 

Pierre and Izturis will be batting 1/2. Neither is likely capable of providing an OBP better than .320 at the top of the order. Throw in Jones, Cedeno and Neifi, and you have the makings of a pretty horrid offense.

 

If I was Aramis, I would definitely opt out. I'd bet the Padres could match what he's making now and they don't currently have a 3b. Klesko, Park, Piazza and Williams will all be off the books, I believe. There may be other teams interested in paying big bucks for his services as well.

 

This team has no direction and the leadership is chasing its tail. I'm already writing off 2007.

 

It's going to take an incredible offseason to make this a good team, and with Hendry pushing the buttons, I can only expect more of the same.

[biittner77]

If only Hendry could put his finger on what went wrong. :wall:

 

I really believe our only hope is that all the young players get better and one of the craptacular vets has a career year.

 

That's not completely out of the realm of possibility.

[soccer10k]

Hendry will be back for another year. Neifi, Izturis, Jones will all be back, and quite possibly Pierre as well.

 

Pierre and Izturis will be batting 1/2. Neither is likely capable of providing an OBP better than .320 at the top of the order. Throw in Jones, Cedeno and Neifi, and you have the makings of a pretty horrid offense.

 

If I was Aramis, I would definitely opt out. I'd bet the Padres could match what he's making now and they don't currently have a 3b. Klesko, Park, Piazza and Williams will all be off the books, I believe. There may be other teams interested in paying big bucks for his services as well.

 

This team has no direction and the leadership is chasing its tail. I'm already writing off 2007.

 

It's going to take an incredible offseason to make this a good team, and with Hendry pushing the buttons, I can only expect more of the same.

 

Even though Pierre currently has a .325 OBP this year and has never had a year with an OBP less than .320?

[David]

Even though Pierre currently has a .325 OBP this year and has never had a year with an OBP less than .320?

 

These are hairs that don't need to be split. .325 is just as crappy as .320, and Pierre has been right around there for the past 1.5 seasons.

[soccer10k]

Even though Pierre currently has a .325 OBP this year and has never had a year with an OBP less than .320?

 

These are hairs that don't need to be split. .325 is just as crappy as .320, and Pierre has been right around there for the past 1.5 seasons.

 

He has a .350+ OBP in each June, July, and August. In 2005 he only had one month with a .350+ OBP. If he finishes August with a .350+ OBP and does the same in September, he could end the year with close to a .340 OBP. It's not great, but it's much better than April and May.

[CubColtPacer]

Even though Pierre currently has a .325 OBP this year and has never had a year with an OBP less than .320?

 

These are hairs that don't need to be split. .325 is just as crappy as .320, and Pierre has been right around there for the past 1.5 seasons.

 

He has a .350+ OBP in each June, July, and August. In 2005 he only had one month with a .350+ OBP. If he finishes August with a .350+ OBP and does the same in September, he could end the year with close to a .340 OBP. It's not great, but it's much better than April and May.

 

Exactly-it's not an argument for resigning him per se, but if we assume he's already on the roster for next year-it's certainly reasonable that he would post a .340 OBP next year-which is still not great, but is still a step up from having it just be optimistic for him to break .320.

[YearofDaCubs]

Why is Nevin still on this team?

[frostwyrm]

Why is Nevin still on this team?

Because the Knights Who Say "Ne" won't let us trade him or Neifi.

[CubColtPacer]

One more thing on Pierre-he certainly follows a trend on this team the last few years that position players aquired in the offseason have trouble swinging the bat at first as a Cub. I've looked back through the past 5 years and looked at several first season Cubs. To make this easier I only took what was considered to be the biggest bat acquired each year (I'm going to look at Pierre and Jones this year)

 

2002-Moises Alou-

April-.133/.188/.267 (only 30 at bats here)

May-.211/.276/.274

June-.316/.376/.490

July-.259/.310/.420

August-.318/.392/.492

September-.314/.368/.471

Total-.280/.357/.462

In 2003, his splits evened out dramatically (if you want, I will provide them-along with everybody on this list second year splits)-and he batted .293/.361/.557

 

2003-Mark Grudzielanek (only starter in the first two months that was acquired besides Miller-Grudz is the bigger bat here)

April-.275/.308/.373

May-.297/.355/.366

June-.300/.364/.400

July-.333/.394/.475

August (no numbers-only 8 at-bats)

September-.359/.395/.474

Total: .314/.366/.416

Next year: This one is an incomplete case: Grudz was hurt after starting 7 for 15, struggled when he got back for about a month, then got better and finished with a .307/.347/.432.

 

2004-Derrek Lee

April-.233/.333/.411

May-.275/.351/.431

June-.385/.444/.673

July-.280/.339/.630

August-.270/.325/.514

September-.226/.333/.377

 

Next Year: .335/.418/.662, with every month being above a 1.000 OPS

 

2005 had no free agent acquisitions that survived to this season, so here is 2006

 

First Jones

2006

April-.228/.274/.474

May-.310/.343/.510

June-.337/.358/.538

July-.237/.260/.419

August-.240/.345/.480

 

Next year-Obviously unknown at this point.

 

Juan Pierre

2006

April-.258/.289/.333

May-.226/.267/.290

June-.283/.352/.381

July-.345/.380/.496

August-.297/.350/.378

 

Next year-???

 

This seems to indicate that generally, a person's first year with the Cubs will start out very slowly. I don't know if that's shock at the weather or what, but the splits have been dramatic for all these players over the months in the first year. In the second year, these players tend to start out much better than they did in the first year. Will it happen for Jones and Pierre? I don't know-but they seem to be following the pattern of Alou, Grudz, and Lee. People acquired in the offseason for the most part have had very rough beginnings, but they have usually recovered as the weather heats up to have a decent season. The next season has generally been better then the first (except for Grudz-who was hurt half the season, and had less than 300 at bats on the season including his rehab at bats, and put up about the same season in 04 that he did in 03). Players tend to get better after their first year with the team, and I think Pierre might be no exception to the rule.

[soapy]

This seems to indicate that generally, a person's first year with the Cubs will start out very slowly. I don't know if that's shock at the weather or what, but the splits have been dramatic for all these players over the months in the first year. In the second year, these players tend to start out much better than they did in the first year. Will it happen for Jones and Pierre? I don't know-but they seem to be following the pattern of Alou, Grudz, and Lee. People acquired in the offseason for the most part have had very rough beginnings, but they have usually recovered as the weather heats up to have a decent season. The next season has generally been better then the first (except for Grudz-who was hurt half the season, and had less than 300 at bats on the season including his rehab at bats, and put up about the same season in 04 that he did in 03). Players tend to get better after their first year with the team, and I think Pierre might be no exception to the rule.

I wouldn't say I necessarily disagree completely with your theory that some adjustment time is needed for some players (day games, maybe they switch leagues, etc.). However, the problem with that in regards to Pierre and Jones is that they are not really playing below career norms. Pierre was terrible last year and his only really good season was 2003. I'm not sure how you can expect improvement from him. His struggles date back before he joined the Cubs, same as Jones.

[CubColtPacer]

This seems to indicate that generally, a person's first year with the Cubs will start out very slowly. I don't know if that's shock at the weather or what, but the splits have been dramatic for all these players over the months in the first year. In the second year, these players tend to start out much better than they did in the first year. Will it happen for Jones and Pierre? I don't know-but they seem to be following the pattern of Alou, Grudz, and Lee. People acquired in the offseason for the most part have had very rough beginnings, but they have usually recovered as the weather heats up to have a decent season. The next season has generally been better then the first (except for Grudz-who was hurt half the season, and had less than 300 at bats on the season including his rehab at bats, and put up about the same season in 04 that he did in 03). Players tend to get better after their first year with the team, and I think Pierre might be no exception to the rule.

I wouldn't say I necessarily disagree completely with your theory that some adjustment time is needed for some players (day games, maybe they switch leagues, etc.). However, the problem with that in regards to Pierre and Jones is that they are not really playing below career norms. Pierre was terrible last year and his only really good season was 2003. I'm not sure how you can expect improvement from him. His struggles date back before he joined the Cubs, same as Jones.

 

I'm not sure it works for Pierre, but his 2004 year was actually better than 2003, and his 2001 numbers were better than that

 

2001: .327/.378/.415

2003: .305/.361/.373

2004: .326/.374/.407

 

Here are his career OBP numbers

2000: .353

2001: .378

2002: .332

2003: .361

2004: .374

2005: .326

2006: .328 (right now it has continued to go up this year)

 

Pierre has had 2 miserable OBP years out of 6 before this year, with .326 being his lowest. I see no reason with those career OBP numbers not to expect at least a .340 out of him next year. Does that mean we should re-sign him? I'm not advocating that here-what I am saying is that he should improve. He had 1 terrrible year followed by 2 months of pressing too hard at Wrigley, which plenty of people have done before him. Now, he is pushing his OBP number up daily, and if he continues to do really well he could get it to .340 by the end of this season even with those awful two months.

 

Edit: I'd like to clarify one thing in this post. When I said that Pierre should improve, I did not mean on his high career years. I meant that he should improve on his 2005 and part of 2006 numbers to get back closer to his career norms.

[soapy]

you're right about 2004, I was going to look that up to make sure but didn't. of course I hope I'm wrong, but Pierre's declining numbers since then lead me to believe he's not going to regain that form.