Lee's impact

[CubfaninCA]

He is definitely valuable. There aren't too many All-Stars who aren't valuable to their team. I wonder how well the Cardinals would be doing if they had to go three weeks without Pujols let alone six to eight weeks. However, this goes to show that Hendry had another subpar off-season. Many of us on here said we needed a corner outfielder with a high OPS. I will give him props for improving the bullpen, but he still didn't get the lead-off guy we needed-- unless you call a guy with speed, who doesn't get on base a good leadoff guy. Admittedly, I don't know who we could've gotten in terms of a corner outfielder, especially since many Cub fans inexplicably deem Prior or Wood as an untouchable. I'm still scratching my head as to why we have Perez, Hairston and Bynum on the team. I can see one of them, maybe even two of them, but all three?

 

there you have it. who could we have got. rf's don't grow on trees.

 

I said corner outfielders, or heck anybody with a high OPS. The problem is a lot of fans want to complain about the offense, but also want to call certain players "untouchable". I couldn't believe all the upset people at the Prior/Tejada rumor. Or the Prior/Abreu rumor from last season. I'll say what many of us said going back to before spring training: Everything would have to go right for this to be a really good season. And so far plenty hasn't gone right.

 

i think murton has done pretty good and so has cedeno. tejada would be making a huge difference now though.

 

Also, lots has to go right. Not everything. This team has enough talent to win, but they can't if Prior & Wood sit out a couple more months. Few teams are going to win with 3 rookies pitching.

[Sammy Sofa]

Lee

 

=

 

http://www.bwtf.com/tfg1/tvshow/tftm/day2/22.jpg

 

Lee's got the touch.

 

Lee's got the power.

[srbin84]

It's pretty bogus to suggest that Lee's absence is what's causing this dearth of offense. Yes, Lee was extremely productive. And yes, we miss him terribly, and so does the team. But the overall suckiness of the entire lineup has less to do with Lee than it does with the terrible performance of the players who are actually playing.

 

yes, some guys have sucked, but lee's absence could trim a run or two per game. that's a lot!

Ok, now you've just called Lee the most valuable player in the history of baseball. a run or 2 a game=240 runs over an average replacement first baseman, who will most likely get 100 or so rbi+runs in a season...

Lee, your 200 RBI, 140 run MVP!

 

Lee could produce those kinds of numbers.......in MVP baseball.

[CubfaninCA]

It's pretty bogus to suggest that Lee's absence is what's causing this dearth of offense. Yes, Lee was extremely productive. And yes, we miss him terribly, and so does the team. But the overall suckiness of the entire lineup has less to do with Lee than it does with the terrible performance of the players who are actually playing.

 

yes, some guys have sucked, but lee's absence could trim a run or two per game. that's a lot!

Ok, now you've just called Lee the most valuable player in the history of baseball. a run or 2 a game=240 runs over an average replacement first baseman, who will most likely get 100 or so rbi+runs in a season...

Lee, your 200 RBI, 140 run MVP!

 

um, neifi & hairston are getting lots of pt now, and aram isn't much protection behind walker.

[MPrior]

It's pretty bogus to suggest that Lee's absence is what's causing this dearth of offense. Yes, Lee was extremely productive. And yes, we miss him terribly, and so does the team. But the overall suckiness of the entire lineup has less to do with Lee than it does with the terrible performance of the players who are actually playing.

 

Well whats going on now really dosent back your statement up, with the exception of 1 game (sunday at St louis) we have been hard pressed to get a hit let alone a run

 

Lee if nothing else provided protection and we were scoring when he was there, now thats not the case

 

hell if we had 1 run in this game, we wouldve won it

 

What's going on right now supports my point excellently. You said it yourself: we've been hard pressed to get a hit, let alone a run. That, as I said, has much more to do with the atrocious performance of the players on the field than it does with the absence of one off the field. Forget Lee. Let's just say that Aramis, Pierre, Jones, Hairston, and even Neifi were currently hitting somewhere around their career averages. I'm not saying they're hitting the cover off the ball, here - just their career averages - we would have scored more than five runs in seven games. And in addition to those underperformers, Barrett hasn't done much since he jammed his finger, Walker's been pretty quickly coming back down to earth, as has Cedeno, and Neifi and Bynum are getting far too much playing time. No one is hitting well right now, and our good luck with RISP earlier in the season has been completely reversed.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

I know people like to pile on when things go bad, but this is a slump plain and simple. By my calculations the Cubs offense is .204/.277/.248 in the last 7 games. Only 8 XBHs and no home runs. They’re lucky to have scored 5 runs in that stretch. Then with the pitching giving up 45 runs, they are also lucky to have won a game. The slump won’t last and at least we are still treading water at .500.

 

On the bright side the Cubs have been more patient at the plate drawing 23 walks in 7 games, after only 55 in the first 21 games; moving them out of last place in walks over Pittsburgh.

[NorthsideAvenger]

The bottomline: I don't believe the Cubs are missing Lee's on-the-field production---per se---I believe they MISS the whole package that Lee brings. Lee is a quietly leader who brings it, everyday. He brings a quiet confidence to the team. I hate to say...the Cubs miss his "swagger", so to speak.

 

But the club stinking worse then 2 day old dog turds, is a GROUP effort.

[Mizzou]

Didn't someone write an article here that said it would cost us 2 or 3 games this year?...turns out it was 2 or 3 games a week.

Yes, and this is why I thought that it was absurd at the time.

[BigbadB]

Didn't someone write an article here that said it would cost us 2 or 3 games this year?...turns out it was 2 or 3 games a week.

Yes, and this is why I thought that it was absurd at the time.

 

I'm not sure how anyone can measure something like this. Last year, we saw how inept the offense could be when you put low OBP guys in front of an offensive machine like Lee was. How many runs and/or games did it cost the Cubs to have Patterson, Neifi and Macias getting a ton of at bats in the top two spots last year? If Lee had OBP machines in front of him, I don't think a 150 RBI season would have been out of the question.

 

This time around, it's poor OBP guys and no Lee. That's probably worse than poor OBP guys and Lee. But, how do you truly and accurately measure the impact 1 player missing from a line up? I don't think you can.

[wastra]

He is definitely valuable. There aren't too many All-Stars who aren't valuable to their team. I wonder how well the Cardinals would be doing if they had to go three weeks without Pujols let alone six to eight weeks. However, this goes to show that Hendry had another subpar off-season. Many of us on here said we needed a corner outfielder with a high OPS. I will give him props for improving the bullpen, but he still didn't get the lead-off guy we needed-- unless you call a guy with speed, who doesn't get on base a good leadoff guy. Admittedly, I don't know who we could've gotten in terms of a corner outfielder, especially since many Cub fans inexplicably deem Prior or Wood as an untouchable. I'm still scratching my head as to why we have Perez, Hairston and Bynum on the team. I can see one of them, maybe even two of them, but all three?

 

there you have it. who could we have got. rf's don't grow on trees.

 

 

Yeah, because no one has added any quality outfield bats in the past 2-3 years. :roll:

[JGalt73]

Didn't someone write an article here that said it would cost us 2 or 3 games this year?...turns out it was 2 or 3 games a week.

Yes, and this is why I thought that it was absurd at the time.

 

In 2005, when Lee was a monster, he added just over 1/2 run per game to the offense. Sure, some days he'll have a HR and 4 RBI, and win a game, but as a whole he'd add less than 1/2 run per game. Now if only the rest of the offense could average the other 4 runs we'd need to win once in a while...

[USSoccer]

Lee's absence has greatly affected the way teams pitch to Ramirez. He gets very few good pitches to hit, and that's contributed to his slow start.

[CubfaninCA]

Didn't someone write an article here that said it would cost us 2 or 3 games this year?...turns out it was 2 or 3 games a week.

Yes, and this is why I thought that it was absurd at the time.

 

I'm not sure how anyone can measure something like this. Last year, we saw how inept the offense could be when you put low OBP guys in front of an offensive machine like Lee was. How many runs and/or games did it cost the Cubs to have Patterson, Neifi and Macias getting a ton of at bats in the top two spots last year? If Lee had OBP machines in front of him, I don't think a 150 RBI season would have been out of the question.

 

This time around, it's poor OBP guys and no Lee. That's probably worse than poor OBP guys and Lee. But, how do you truly and accurately measure the impact 1 player missing from a line up? I don't think you can.

 

yep, definitely very difficult to measure, as baseball's such a situational. not only does replacing lee with neifi, hairson or mabry hurt, but walker and ramirez suffer as well. considering the impact on walker and ramirez as well, i'd wager the cubs are losing at least a run per game.

[treebird]

yep, definitely very difficult to measure, as baseball's such a situational. not only does replacing lee with neifi, hairson or mabry hurt, but walker and ramirez suffer as well. considering the impact on walker and ramirez as well, i'd wager the cubs are losing at least a run per game.

 

albert pujols has a VORP of 27.1. this gives him a VORPr (vorp per game) of .906.

 

not even albert pujols is worth a run over replacement per game, and he's hitting 326/484/874

 

i'll grant you that the cubs fill-ins for lee haven't performed well, but there's simply no way to draw all this together and say that lee was worth as much as you are suggesting.

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS offense for the first 14 games..... (not including Lee's contribution)

 

04/03 - 04/19      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Barrett            46    8   13    2    0    3   24   15    2    4  0.283  0.306  0.522  0.828
Cedeno             46    4   17    5    1    0   24    5    2    5  0.370  0.396  0.522  0.918
Jones              29    4    6    1    0    1   10    4    3    8  0.207  0.273  0.345  0.618
Murton             50    8   14    2    1    2   24    9    5    8  0.280  0.345  0.480  0.825
Pierre             59   10   16    2    1    0   20    2    2    6  0.271  0.295  0.339  0.634
Ramirez            46    6    9    1    0    2   16    5    5    6  0.196  0.288  0.348  0.636
Walker             42    9   17    2    1    2   27    9    2    5  0.405  0.422  0.643  1.065
Blanco              9    1    1    0    0    0    1    0    1    2  0.111  0.200  0.111  0.311
Bynum              12    2    1    0    0    0    1    0    0    5  0.083  0.083  0.083  0.167
Hairston           17    4    6    1    0    0    7    0    1    4  0.353  0.389  0.412  0.801
Mabry              13    2    6    0    0    1    9    3    0    4  0.462  0.462  0.692  1.154
Pagan              19    2    5    1    0    0    6    1    0    4  0.263  0.263  0.316  0.579
Perez              20    3    5    1    0    0    6    3    0    3  0.250  0.250  0.300  0.550
Restovich           0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000

Totals            408   63  116   18    4   11  175   56   23   64  0.284  0.322  0.429  0.751

 

CUBS' offense for the last 14 games........

 

04/21 - 05/05      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Barrett            28    2    8    2    0    1   13    3    5    4  0.286  0.412  0.464  0.876
Cedeno             49    4   12    1    1    1   18    3    2    8  0.245  0.275  0.367  0.642
Jones              46    3   13    2    0    3   24    6    1    7  0.283  0.313  0.522  0.834
Murton             41    4   12    2    0    0   14    8    7    8  0.293  0.396  0.341  0.737
Pierre             53    8   13    3    1    0   18    0    5    5  0.245  0.322  0.340  0.662
Ramirez            45    8    9    3    0    2   18    5    8    4  0.200  0.321  0.400  0.721
Walker             46    1   11    2    0    0   13    4    8    5  0.239  0.352  0.283  0.634
Blanco             14    0    1    0    0    0    1    0    4    2  0.071  0.278  0.071  0.349
Bynum              14    0    4    0    1    0    6    1    1    5  0.286  0.333  0.429  0.762
Hairston           25    3    3    0    0    0    3    2    1    5  0.120  0.154  0.120  0.274
Mabry              17    1    1    0    0    0    1    0    1    5  0.059  0.111  0.059  0.170
Pagan               0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000
Perez              26    0    3    1    0    0    4    0    2    2  0.115  0.179  0.154  0.332
Restovich          11    0    2    1    0    0    3    1    1    4  0.182  0.250  0.273  0.523

Totals            415   34   92   17    3    7  136   33   46   64  0.222  0.304  0.328  0.632

 

Everybody's OPS went down except Barrett, Jones, Pierre, & Ramirez. Barrett & Ramirez aren't hitting or driving in runs, but their keeping their production up by drawing walks. This is good. Jones & Pierre have improved from very crappy to crappy. The whole damned lineup is in a funk, but that's not news, is it ??

 

Also note that Freddie Bynum is outproducing all of Murton, Cedeno, Hairston and Perez during the last 2 weeks. Sure, it's a very small sample size, but why go ballistic because the guy gets a couple of starts ?? It's just that.... a couple of starts in place of 2 guys who weren't producing anyway.

 

Lighten up, boys and girls. This, too, shall pass.

[Soul]

It's not just Lee's statistics, it's his leadership and presence. Losing him is putting more pressure on other players to make up the difference.

 

I'm not saying Lee's absence is the total reason for our downslide. It's not. But his loss goes beyond just the stats he was putting up.

[Guest]

Also note that Freddie Bynum is outproducing all of Murton, Cedeno, Hairston and Perez during the last 2 weeks. Sure, it's a very small sample size, but why go ballistic because the guy gets a couple of starts ?? It's just that.... a couple of starts in place of 2 guys who weren't producing anyway.

I wouldn't call a nearly .400 OBP "not producing" in Murton's case. He's not hittng with any power whatsoever, but he's doing a fantastic job of getting on base.

 

Another big reason why our production is way down over the last couple of weeks is because it is regressing back down to it's expected levels. On April 19th (the day of Lee's injury) the Cubs were scoring 0.146 R/PA but their XR/PA was only 0.125. In other words, they were scoring nearly 20% more runs than they should have beeen based on their component offensive statistics. After yesterday's game those numbers had fallen to .109 and .101, respectively, dropping the difference to less than 8%.

 

There are a multitude of factors causing the Cubs' scoring drought. Blaming it all on Lee's absence is just silly.

[David]

Homer: Not a bear in sight. The "Bear Patrol" is working like a charm!

 

Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.

 

Homer: Thanks, honey.

 

Lisa: By your logic, I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.

 

Homer: Hmm. How does it work?

 

Lisa: It doesn't work; it's just a stupid rock!

 

Homer: Uh-huh.

 

Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?

 

Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock.

[erik316wttn]

Losing Lee isn't the reason we've scored 2 runs this week. He's valuable, but there are 8 other guys (7 if you don't want to count the pitcher) who can drive in runs.

[CubinNY]

Homer: Not a bear in sight. The "Bear Patrol" is working like a charm!

 

Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.

 

Homer: Thanks, honey.

 

Lisa: By your logic, I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.

 

Homer: Hmm. How does it work?

 

Lisa: It doesn't work; it's just a stupid rock!

 

Homer: Uh-huh.

 

Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?

 

Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock.

 

That's a pretty good analogy for the performance of the Department of Homeland Security too. :sunny:

[NCCubFan]

Losing Lee isn't the reason we've scored 2 runs this week. He's valuable, but there are 8 other guys (7 if you don't want to count the pitcher) who can drive in runs.

You've got to count the pitcher, since a Cub pitcher (Maddux) drove in the only run in the past four games.

[BigSlick]

Losing Lee isn't the reason we've scored 2 runs this week. He's valuable, but there are 8 other guys (7 if you don't want to count the pitcher) who can drive in runs.

You've got to count the pitcher, since a Cub pitcher (Maddux) drove in the only run in the past four games.

 

DON'T REMIND ME!

 

Oh lord, what a funk this team is in. And it isn't even against elite competition, so its twice as painful, this is against teams that we SHOULD BE BEATING.