[USSoccer]

How often are basketball scouts correct in a player's pre-draft evaluation? How many of them are enamored with measurables and physical gifts, and look less at performance on the court? How many of them are picturing what a guy might be rather than what he is?

 

Unless a player is a "Can't Miss", I'd venture a guess that scouts are wrong in basketball about 90% of the time.

How do you measure correctness in drafting? How often are you correct in your assessment of how college basketball players will develop in the NBA? No doubt it's an inexact science, but it strikes me as hubris to dismiss scouts' opinions of a player in favor of your own. That's just my opinion, and I think it's fun to argue about who's likely to do what from the upcoming draft class.

 

I think it's fun, too.

 

I'm just wondering aloud if some of the same inefficiencies that pop up in baseball scouting pop up in basketball scouting. If you take the number of top 15 picks in the last 10 years, out of those 150 players I wonder how many end up being regular NBA players.

 

EDIT:

 

Not including the 2005 class:

 

1995-Stackhouse, Wallace, Garnett, and Damon Stoudamire all had nice careers. Joe Smith and Antonio McDyess were ok. The rest of that top 15 featured Shawn Respert, Bryant Reeves, Ed O'Bannon, Kurt Thomas, Gary Trent, Cherokee Parks, Corliss Williamson, Eric Williams and Brent Barry.

 

1996-Iverson, Allen, Nash, Kobe, Peja all are good. Camby, Abdur Rahim and Antoine Walker are also decent. Then you have Marbury, Lorenzen Wright, Kittles, Samaki Walker, Erick Dampier, Todd Fuller, and Potepenko all being bad.

 

1997-Duncan, Billups, McGrady, and that's about it. Van Horn was servicable, and then you have Antonio Daniels, Tony Battie, Ron Mercer, Tim Thomas, Adonal Foyle, Danny Fortson, Olivier Saint Jean, Austin Croshere, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Kelvin Cato. That's a bad draft if you didn't get a top 3 pick.

 

1998-Bibby, Pierce, Carter, Jamison, the Diggler are all good. Larry Hughes and Harpring are pretty good, and then you have Olowokandi (#1 overall), LaFrentz, Traylor, Jason Williams, Bonzi Wells, Doleac, Keon Clark, and Michael Dickerson. BTW, how does Bryce Drew get drafted 16th?

 

1999-Brand, Hamilton, Marion, Terry and that's about it. Baron Davis and Steve Francis are there, and then you have Odom, Johnathan Bender, Andre Miller, Langdon, Alek Redojevic, Maggette, Avery and Frederick Weis. Artest goes 16th.

 

2000-Mike Miller and maybe K-Mart are it. This is the Swift, Miles, Fizer, DeMarr Johnson, Mihm, Crawford, Pryzbilla, Dooling, Moiso, Etan Thomas, Courtney Alexander, Cleaves, and Collier mess of a top 15.

 

2001-Gasol, Richardson, Battier, Joe Johnson, Radmanovic and Richard Jefferson. The rest was Kwame Brown, Chandler, Curry, Eddie Griffin, Diop, Rodney White, Kedrick Brown, Troy Murphy and Steven Hunter.

 

2002-Yao, Nene, Amare, Caron Butler and that's about it. Jay Williams, Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, Tsikitzvilli, Dajuan Wagner, Chris Wilcox, Haslip, Freddy Jones , Jefferiesand Bostjan Nachbar round out the top 15.

 

2003-James, Anthony, Bosh, Wade, Hinrich, Ridinour, TJ Ford, and Collison were contributors. Darko, Kaman, Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes, Pietrus, Banks and Reece Gaines were not.

 

2004-Howard, Okafor, Gordon, Livingston, Harris, Deng, and Iguodala look to be good. Childress, Araujo, Luke Jackson, Biedrins, Swift, Telfair, Humphries and Al Jefferson do not.

 

If you stretch your criterea to say that you'd take players based on a range from great to decent, you have 63 players that fit that bill out of 150. I'd like to think you should do better than 42% of your top 15 picks being good.

[rawaction]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

[srbin84]

Yeah, there were a lot of high end players in the 99 draft.

[USSoccer]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

 

Other than Andre Miller, who was I hard on?

[David]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

 

Other than Andre Miller, who was I hard on?

 

Marbury? I'd hardly call him bad.

[USSoccer]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

 

Other than Andre Miller, who was I hard on?

 

Marbury? I'd hardly call him bad.

 

You'd draft Marbury if you could go back in time?

[DCNashville]

 

If you take the number of top 15 picks in the last 10 years, out of those 150 players I wonder how many end up being regular NBA players.

 

Kurt Thomas, Brent Barry, Stephon Marbury, Lorenzen Wright, Erick Dampier, Austin Croshere, Michael Olowokandi, Jason Williams, Bonzi Wells, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Corey Maggette, Darius Miles,

Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddie Curry

 

I´d say all of those count as ¨regular¨NBA players...all played important roles for their team at some time or another (and many still do). Now, if you want to talk about ¨star¨players, thats a different story.

[rawaction]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

 

Other than Andre Miller, who was I hard on?

 

Marbury has averaged 20 ppg consistently in the NBA. Kurt Thomas has been very successful. Bonzi Wells is at least decent. Tim Thomas, Mercer, Jason Williams, Barry, Odom, Maggette, Gooden are all solid players.

[USSoccer]

 

If you take the number of top 15 picks in the last 10 years, out of those 150 players I wonder how many end up being regular NBA players.

 

Kurt Thomas, Brent Barry, Stephon Marbury, Lorenzen Wright, Erick Dampier, Austin Croshere, Michael Olowokandi, Jason Williams, Bonzi Wells, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Corey Maggette, Darius Miles,

Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddie Curry

 

I´d say all of those count as ¨regular¨NBA players...all played important roles for their team at some time or another (and many still do). Now, if you want to talk about ¨star¨players, thats a different story.

 

If you'll note the range of critera I used was "star" to "decent".

 

Admittedly I am being hard on Miller and Maggette, but the rest of that group is pretty poor. Chanlder is a very good one dimensional player, but was he worth the Brand pick? Bonzi Wells and Marbury may score, but they're both team-killers. Would you draft the,/take them on the Bulls? Jason Williams is not a good point guard. His flaws are seriously masked by being on a team with Shaq and Wade. Croshere is a borderline rotation guy. Thomas, Barry, Wright, Dampier, Olowokandi, Miles, Brown and Curry are all busts based on where they were drafted.

 

If you look at the top 15, picks 1-5 should be starters and all-star caliber players. 5-10 should be 6th men/starters on other teams/role starters. Picks 10-15 should be regular rotation contributers. The place to draft project players is not in the Top 15.

[USSoccer]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

 

Other than Andre Miller, who was I hard on?

 

Marbury has averaged 20 ppg consistently in the NBA. Kurt Thomas has been very successful. Bonzi Wells is at least decent. Tim Thomas, Mercer, Jason Williams, Barry, Odom, Maggette, Gooden are all solid players.

 

Again, would you draft Marbury if you could do it all over again? Would you want him on your team? Ditto for Wells. That next group you mentioned are not successful relative to their draft position.

[rawaction]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

 

Other than Andre Miller, who was I hard on?

 

Marbury has averaged 20 ppg consistently in the NBA. Kurt Thomas has been very successful. Bonzi Wells is at least decent. Tim Thomas, Mercer, Jason Williams, Barry, Odom, Maggette, Gooden are all solid players.

 

Again, would you draft Marbury if you could do it all over again? Would you want him on your team? Ditto for Wells. That next group you mentioned are not successful relative to their draft position.

 

I didn't think that was the point. I thought it was to show that a lot of top 15 picks have not been successful. It wasn't about who I would take on the Bulls or who is successful relative to their draft position.

[USSoccer]

You're a little hard on some players. Some of those players have averaged 20+ points at times in their careers. A lot of other players have had good careers.

 

Other than Andre Miller, who was I hard on?

 

Marbury has averaged 20 ppg consistently in the NBA. Kurt Thomas has been very successful. Bonzi Wells is at least decent. Tim Thomas, Mercer, Jason Williams, Barry, Odom, Maggette, Gooden are all solid players.

 

Again, would you draft Marbury if you could do it all over again? Would you want him on your team? Ditto for Wells. That next group you mentioned are not successful relative to their draft position.

 

I didn't think that was the point. I thought it was to show that a lot of top 15 picks have not been successful. It wasn't about who I would take on the Bulls or who is successful relative to their draft position.

 

My overall point was to look at top 15 picks and not only see who was successful, but who was successful relative to their draft position. I think looking at the draft you see just about every "project" type guy, or one dimensional player ends up being a fringe NBA regular. Very few of them succeed.

 

I mean, if you are the Bulls, and you have the 1st and 15th overall picks, how should you spend them? Should you take a project-type player with that 1st pick like Thomas? As athletic as he is, he is still a work in progress. He has a negligible offensive ability. He doesn't shoot very well. At 6-9 he's an undersized 4. He's not good enough to be a 3 on a team with Deng and Nocioni. He is very good defensively, has the leaping ability and the wingspan, and shows flashes of explosiveness offensively. Plus, your chances of developing such a raw player into a solid NBA player worth that #1 pick are low, looking at the past 9 drafts.

 

Or do you take Noah, a more polished offensive player, just as intense, taller, more mature, with that pick, knowing that your likely range of outcome with Noah is better than with Thomas? Or do you take Roy, knowing that he fills a need, can score, plays defense, and as a senior is more fundamentally polished?

 

Is upside worth more than a more stable commodity? Both Roy and Noah fill more of a need that Thomas, so given that and the risk of drafting a freshman who's raw historically, which way do you go?

[USSoccer]

Also, if you put stock into that website's Best/Worst Case outcomes, Aldridge and Morrison have the best upside and safest downside. I'd say that Noah and Thomas have really "meh" upsides, and frighteningly bad worst cases.

[Outshined_One]

John Paxson has shown a history of drafting guys who perform well in the tournament and who played for the best teams in the tournament (Hinrich, Deng, Gordon). UCLA doesn't have anyone of note in this year's draft, but Florida and LSU have a few guys who looked very good and looked like they could very well play in the NBA now and be effective. Aldridge might end up becoming a decent player, but he just doesn't have that fire underneath.

 

As for Roy, he really reminds me of Deron Williams. Considering I really liked Williams last season, that's a good thing, imo.

[SouthSideRyan]

I equate Thomas and Noah to an athlete draft in baseball, while Aldridge is a numbers guy.

[1908]

Not including the 2005 class:

 

1995-Stackhouse, Wallace, Garnett, and Damon Stoudamire all had nice careers. Joe Smith and Antonio McDyess were ok. The rest of that top 15 featured Shawn Respert, Bryant Reeves, Ed O'Bannon, Kurt Thomas, Gary Trent, Cherokee Parks, Corliss Williamson, Eric Williams and Brent Barry.

 

1996-Iverson, Allen, Nash, Kobe, Peja all are good. Camby, Abdur Rahim and Antoine Walker are also decent. Then you have Marbury, Lorenzen Wright, Kittles, Samaki Walker, Erick Dampier, Todd Fuller, and Potepenko all being bad.

 

1997-Duncan, Billups, McGrady, and that's about it. Van Horn was servicable, and then you have Antonio Daniels, Tony Battie, Ron Mercer, Tim Thomas, Adonal Foyle, Danny Fortson, Olivier Saint Jean, Austin Croshere, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Kelvin Cato. That's a bad draft if you didn't get a top 3 pick.

 

1998-Bibby, Pierce, Carter, Jamison, the Diggler are all good. Larry Hughes and Harpring are pretty good, and then you have Olowokandi (#1 overall), LaFrentz, Traylor, Jason Williams, Bonzi Wells, Doleac, Keon Clark, and Michael Dickerson. BTW, how does Bryce Drew get drafted 16th?

 

1999-Brand, Hamilton, Marion, Terry and that's about it. Baron Davis and Steve Francis are there, and then you have Odom, Johnathan Bender, Andre Miller, Langdon, Alek Redojevic, Maggette, Avery and Frederick Weis. Artest goes 16th.

 

2000-Mike Miller and maybe K-Mart are it. This is the Swift, Miles, Fizer, DeMarr Johnson, Mihm, Crawford, Pryzbilla, Dooling, Moiso, Etan Thomas, Courtney Alexander, Cleaves, and Collier mess of a top 15.

 

2001-Gasol, Richardson, Battier, Joe Johnson, Radmanovic and Richard Jefferson. The rest was Kwame Brown, Chandler, Curry, Eddie Griffin, Diop, Rodney White, Kedrick Brown, Troy Murphy and Steven Hunter.

 

2002-Yao, Nene, Amare, Caron Butler and that's about it. Jay Williams, Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, Tsikitzvilli, Dajuan Wagner, Chris Wilcox, Haslip, Freddy Jones , Jefferiesand Bostjan Nachbar round out the top 15.

 

2003-James, Anthony, Bosh, Wade, Hinrich, Ridinour, TJ Ford, and Collison were contributors. Darko, Kaman, Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes, Pietrus, Banks and Reece Gaines were not.

 

2004-Howard, Okafor, Gordon, Livingston, Harris, Deng, and Iguodala look to be good. Childress, Araujo, Luke Jackson, Biedrins, Swift, Telfair, Humphries and Al Jefferson do not.

 

If you stretch your criterea to say that you'd take players based on a range from great to decent, you have 63 players that fit that bill out of 150. I'd like to think you should do better than 42% of your top 15 picks being good.

What method are you using to evaluate these players? Good, okay and not good strikes me as incredibly simplistic. Kobe and Iverson are HOF players, but they rate the same as Peja? I don't think you can just throw something like this together and expect it to carry any significance.

[1908]

If you look at the top 15, picks 1-5 should be starters and all-star caliber players. 5-10 should be 6th men/starters on other teams/role starters. Picks 10-15 should be regular rotation contributers. The place to draft project players is not in the Top 15.

Why should players taken in those slots fall within those roles?

[Andy]

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bulls are picking Brandon Roy. They love picking guys with a lot of college experience, and Roy was a solid player who has a decent upside.

[1908]

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bulls are picking Brandon Roy. They love picking guys with a lot of college experience, and Roy was a solid player who has a decent upside.

Until we know where the Bulls are picking, it's very difficult to guess whom they will select.

[sethuel1]

Noah, Brewer and Horford aren't coming out.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2401235

[RynoRules]

Not including the 2005 class:

 

1995-Stackhouse, Wallace, Garnett, and Damon Stoudamire all had nice careers. Joe Smith and Antonio McDyess were ok. The rest of that top 15 featured Shawn Respert, Bryant Reeves, Ed O'Bannon, Kurt Thomas, Gary Trent, Cherokee Parks, Corliss Williamson, Eric Williams and Brent Barry.

 

1996-Iverson, Allen, Nash, Kobe, Peja all are good. Camby, Abdur Rahim and Antoine Walker are also decent. Then you have Marbury, Lorenzen Wright, Kittles, Samaki Walker, Erick Dampier, Todd Fuller, and Potepenko all being bad.

 

1997-Duncan, Billups, McGrady, and that's about it. Van Horn was servicable, and then you have Antonio Daniels, Tony Battie, Ron Mercer, Tim Thomas, Adonal Foyle, Danny Fortson, Olivier Saint Jean, Austin Croshere, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Kelvin Cato. That's a bad draft if you didn't get a top 3 pick.

 

1998-Bibby, Pierce, Carter, Jamison, the Diggler are all good. Larry Hughes and Harpring are pretty good, and then you have Olowokandi (#1 overall), LaFrentz, Traylor, Jason Williams, Bonzi Wells, Doleac, Keon Clark, and Michael Dickerson. BTW, how does Bryce Drew get drafted 16th?

 

1999-Brand, Hamilton, Marion, Terry and that's about it. Baron Davis and Steve Francis are there, and then you have Odom, Johnathan Bender, Andre Miller, Langdon, Alek Redojevic, Maggette, Avery and Frederick Weis. Artest goes 16th.

 

2000-Mike Miller and maybe K-Mart are it. This is the Swift, Miles, Fizer, DeMarr Johnson, Mihm, Crawford, Pryzbilla, Dooling, Moiso, Etan Thomas, Courtney Alexander, Cleaves, and Collier mess of a top 15.

 

2001-Gasol, Richardson, Battier, Joe Johnson, Radmanovic and Richard Jefferson. The rest was Kwame Brown, Chandler, Curry, Eddie Griffin, Diop, Rodney White, Kedrick Brown, Troy Murphy and Steven Hunter.

 

2002-Yao, Nene, Amare, Caron Butler and that's about it. Jay Williams, Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, Tsikitzvilli, Dajuan Wagner, Chris Wilcox, Haslip, Freddy Jones , Jefferiesand Bostjan Nachbar round out the top 15.

 

2003-James, Anthony, Bosh, Wade, Hinrich, Ridinour, TJ Ford, and Collison were contributors. Darko, Kaman, Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes, Pietrus, Banks and Reece Gaines were not.

 

2004-Howard, Okafor, Gordon, Livingston, Harris, Deng, and Iguodala look to be good. Childress, Araujo, Luke Jackson, Biedrins, Swift, Telfair, Humphries and Al Jefferson do not.

 

If you stretch your criterea to say that you'd take players based on a range from great to decent, you have 63 players that fit that bill out of 150. I'd like to think you should do better than 42% of your top 15 picks being good.

What method are you using to evaluate these players? Good, okay and not good strikes me as incredibly simplistic. Kobe and Iverson are HOF players, but they rate the same as Peja? I don't think you can just throw something like this together and expect it to carry any significance.

 

I gotta go with 1908 here. It looks like you are judging some of these guys based on whether their teams have won, which really isn't a way to evaluate their individual abilities.

 

For example, you have lumped Kaman in with Reece Gaines, Darkp, and Banks. Meanwhile he is one half of one of the best C-PF combos in the league, on a team that is going to the playoffs.

 

Another example is Childress - do you follow hoops? He has been very good this year, yet you lump him in with scrubs. And you lump Marbury in with Samaki Walker? Odom, Magette and Andre Miller with the likes of Avery and Langdon?

 

That makes absolutely no sense.

[snoodmonger]

Noah, Brewer and Horford aren't coming out.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2401235

 

A year ago, North Carolina junior Sean May said he would return upon the championship Tar Heels returning home. But he later declared. So, it's probably good to wait for the 29th once all the emotion from the title is over before locking in the three Gators for next season.

[sethuel1]

Noah, Brewer and Horford aren't coming out.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2401235

 

A year ago, North Carolina junior Sean May said he would return upon the championship Tar Heels returning home. But he later declared. So, it's probably good to wait for the 29th once all the emotion from the title is over before locking in the three Gators for next season.

 

I have to admit I didn't read the actual article

[Outshined_One]

Noah, Brewer and Horford aren't coming out.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2401235

 

If this is true...nuts. :(

 

Smart decision for Horford if he stays. Another season of coaching will really help elevate his stock.

[Flames24Rulz]

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bulls are picking Brandon Roy. They love picking guys with a lot of college experience, and Roy was a solid player who has a decent upside.

 

i would not be unhappy about that at all. Roy is going to make a very solid pro IMO.