Wily Mo to the Red Sox

[UK1679666180]

I wouldn't be shocked if this was a move based on Pena's behavior. The one thing Krivsky is trying to bring is discipline. Pena might've not met the standards of Krivsky/Narron. They've already released players for being overweight. Edited March 20, 2006 by UK

[TheDude]

Oh I know that, but if you are really trying to improve your staff wouldn't you be willing to take that hit in the salary cap?

 

If you look at traditional projection tools, Clement and Arroyo project out to have very close stat-lines (assumes Arroyo on the Red Sox)...14-10 record each, Clement with a .150 ERA advantage, Arroyo with .041 WHIP advantage. Clement with 30 more Ks.

 

The salary difference however, is huge, far more significant than the slight differences in stat-lines.

[Cubzfan64]

Just listened to Boston sports radio on the way home. In general, more than half of the callers are not real favorable on the trade, HOWEVER it seems to be more of a "we liked Bronson" much more than any skill set.

 

The "knowledgeable" folks (including Theo) are saying that Pena gives them what they hope for now is a real threat against left handed pitching and they seem to be convinced that Pena is a very hard worker who takes the game seriously and wants to become better. Apparently they feel that the fact that he was signed to a major league contract at such a young age with the Reds forced Cincinatti to bring him up to the big club sooner than he should have been, therefore his "growth" and development have taken a hit (again, in their opinion).

 

All in all, Boston seems to believe that they while they understand Pena's weaknesses in regards to defense and SO ratio, they believe that he has a MUCH MUCH higher ceiling than Arroyo does.

 

They plan to likely platoon him in RF with Nixon. There was some talk of 1B, but the belief is that something like that would take place in an offseason and that for now, he's on OF and their coaches are going to start working hard with him.

 

IMHO - Boston got a very good potential player and although they didn't say it, I think in their vision of the perfect future, Pena blossoms into a "Sosa" like player and fills into LF as soon as Ramirez is gone.

[Outshined_One]

Pena has a much better ceiling and much better potential to reach his ceiling than Arroyo, imo. He's young, fairly athletic, mediocre defensively, and has jaw-dropping power.

 

I think this one will end up coming back to bite the Reds when all is said and done.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

They plan to likely platoon him in RF with Nixon. There was some talk of 1B, but the belief is that something like that would take place in an offseason and that for now, he's on OF and their coaches are going to start working hard with him.

 

That would be a pretty nice platoon, IMO. Wily Mo's 883 OPS vs lefties and Trot's 955 vs righties. Too bad the Cubs won't try anything like that.

[CubinNY]

Did the trade happen or is this still speculation?

 

If it did happen, I think this is a good deal for Boston, but a pretty fair trade. However, if Pena lives up to his potential it could be a real steal for Boston. Big Poppi better teach him some plate discipline though.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Did the trade happen or is this still speculation?

 

If it did happen, I think this is a good deal for Boston, but a pretty fair trade. However, if Pena lives up to his potential it could be a real steal for Boston. Big Poppi better teach him some plate discipline though.

 

Done deal

[cjbucks]

Isn't Arroyo another fly ball pitcher in the GAB?

[Outshined_One]

Isn't Arroyo another fly ball pitcher in the GAB?

 

Career-wise, he's .98 in GB/FB.

 

This will turn out well.

[goonys evil twin]

Isn't Arroyo another fly ball pitcher in the GAB?

 

Career-wise, he's .98 in GB/FB.

 

This will turn out well.

 

I noticed MLB.com lists the stat as GO/AO, defining it as ground outs and fly outs. And they have him at .97. Is GB/FB, for all balls put in play? Is there a difference in stats here or are they just labeled differently?

[Outshined_One]

Isn't Arroyo another fly ball pitcher in the GAB?

 

Career-wise, he's .98 in GB/FB.

 

This will turn out well.

 

I noticed MLB.com lists the stat as GO/AO, defining it as ground outs and fly outs. And they have him at .97. Is GB/FB, for all balls put in play? Is there a difference in stats here or are they just labeled differently?

 

Not sure, to be honest with you. I was using ESPN's stats.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

In the last three seasons, Pena has produced an OPS+ of 66 in 03, 121 in 04, and 100 in 05. He's 24, so he's likely to be a productive player for the next few seasons.

 

Arroyo has posted ERA+ of 121 in 2004 but 98 in 2005. (He had a 227 ERA+ in 2003, but that was in only 17.3 IP of relief). He's 29. He's likely to be an average pitcher for the remainder of his deal. His ERA+ will float around 100. He's better than a lot of fifth starters, will be decent as a number four, and would be a below average #2 or #3 starter. He's an older and more expensive Jerome Williams. (For those who'd like to disagree, here are Williams ERA+ for 2003-2005: 130, 105, 100.)

 

Pena at age 24 has a chance to blossom into a very good hitter. With Arroyo, what you see is what you get.

 

Boston made a steal here, and that's even if Pena doesn't pan out to much. Arroyo was the sixth starter behind Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wells, and Wakefield. Papelbon is likely a better pitcher than Arroyo, and with Lester coming along, Arroyo was useless. Pena will make an excellent platoon for Nixon and gives them another young outfielder to pair with Crisp for the future of the franchise.

 

I understand the Reds need pitching, but is Arroyo really the type of pitching they need? He's not a difference maker and they aren't an Arroyo away from competing. Now their offense (which was their one strength) is weaker and their pitching isn't appreciably better.

 

I can't fathom that there wasn't a better deal out there to be made.

[EricG]

Will Arroyo's stats improve by moving to the NL?

[Geech]

ERA+ is based on the league average, so you probably shouldn't expect any improvement from that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Didn't Boston all but gaurantee Arroyo that they wouldn't trade him after he took less money to stay there? I'd be PISSED if I were him.

 

That's what I was wondering. If I recall wasn't that a big part of the reason he signed such a reasonable contract?

 

 

Arroyo left a TON of money on the table with his contract. He signed an 3 year/11.3M deal. He would've got more than the annual salary in first year arbitration alone. They didn't guarantee him he wouldn't be traded, but said they wouldn't shop him, only trade him if somebody bowled them over. I'm quite sure they lied to him. So fine, blame Arroyo for being stupid and not getting a no trade clause for leaving 5M on the table, but don't ever complain about a lack of loyalty from a player when a player like Arroyo went out of his way to be loyal to a team and place that he loved and had his loyalty stomped on and he was sent away.

[BWcubs21]

WOW- Wily Mo is going to crush in Fenway-

 

Reds=HOSED

 

to bad thats all he can do, whats his career BA and OBP? But I would still rather have his potential over Arroyo.

[Derwood]

Food for thought:

 

Career K/BB ratios:

 

Reggie Jackson: 1.88

Jose Hernandez: 3.63

Rob Deer: 2.45

Gorman Thomas: 1.92

Wily Mo Pena: 5.33 :shock:

[Cubzfan64]

Didn't Boston all but gaurantee Arroyo that they wouldn't trade him after he took less money to stay there? I'd be PISSED if I were him.

 

That's what I was wondering. If I recall wasn't that a big part of the reason he signed such a reasonable contract?

 

 

Arroyo left a TON of money on the table with his contract. He signed an 3 year/11.3M deal. He would've got more than the annual salary in first year arbitration alone. They didn't guarantee him he wouldn't be traded, but said they wouldn't shop him, only trade him if somebody bowled them over. I'm quite sure they lied to him. So fine, blame Arroyo for being stupid and not getting a no trade clause for leaving 5M on the table, but don't ever complain about a lack of loyalty from a player when a player like Arroyo went out of his way to be loyal to a team and place that he loved and had his loyalty stomped on and he was sent away.

 

I listened to an interview with Theo Epstein today and he denies that they ever made any kind of "wink wink" gentleman's agreement with Arroyo when he signed his home town discount contract.

 

The word all around Boston when Arroyo signed that is that he was setting himself up to be traded and that's exactly what happened. From all I could tell by listening to people here today, Arroyo's agent tried to convince him not to take that contract with Boston without the guarantee, but he liked Boston and thought they would keep him here - he even said as much in spring training.

 

You're correct that Bronson showed a definite sense of loyalty, but as much as you hate to admit it, baseball IS a business and Theo can distance himself from all of this too in the fact that he wasn't part of the negotiating with Arroyo, so he doesn't owe him anything.

[Cubzfan64]

In the last three seasons, Pena has produced an OPS+ of 66 in 03, 121 in 04, and 100 in 05. He's 24, so he's likely to be a productive player for the next few seasons.

 

Arroyo has posted ERA+ of 121 in 2004 but 98 in 2005. (He had a 227 ERA+ in 2003, but that was in only 17.3 IP of relief). He's 29. He's likely to be an average pitcher for the remainder of his deal. His ERA+ will float around 100. He's better than a lot of fifth starters, will be decent as a number four, and would be a below average #2 or #3 starter. He's an older and more expensive Jerome Williams. (For those who'd like to disagree, here are Williams ERA+ for 2003-2005: 130, 105, 100.)

 

Pena at age 24 has a chance to blossom into a very good hitter. With Arroyo, what you see is what you get.

 

Boston made a steal here, and that's even if Pena doesn't pan out to much. Arroyo was the sixth starter behind Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wells, and Wakefield. Papelbon is likely a better pitcher than Arroyo, and with Lester coming along, Arroyo was useless. Pena will make an excellent platoon for Nixon and gives them another young outfielder to pair with Crisp for the future of the franchise.

 

I understand the Reds need pitching, but is Arroyo really the type of pitching they need? He's not a difference maker and they aren't an Arroyo away from competing. Now their offense (which was their one strength) is weaker and their pitching isn't appreciably better.

 

I can't fathom that there wasn't a better deal out there to be made.

 

I agree with everything you said except that Bronson wasn't going to be useless to the Red Sox this year. Their bullpen is still up in the air, and Arroyo has shown that he has the rubber arm and temperament to pitch anywhere they ask him as opposed to Wells and Clement. Papelbon may end up having to pitch in the bullpen and there's no indication that Wells will be able to continue pitching decently.

 

I agree that it was a good deal for Boston - especially as they look forward to 2007-2009, but it could backfire for 2006.

[Diffusion]

Very classy of the Red Sox to give Bronson Arroyo assurances that they wouldn't trade him this off-season, and then trade him this off-season.

[TheDude]

In the last three seasons, Pena has produced an OPS+ of 66 in 03, 121 in 04, and 100 in 05. He's 24, so he's likely to be a productive player for the next few seasons.

 

Arroyo has posted ERA+ of 121 in 2004 but 98 in 2005. (He had a 227 ERA+ in 2003, but that was in only 17.3 IP of relief). He's 29. He's likely to be an average pitcher for the remainder of his deal. His ERA+ will float around 100. He's better than a lot of fifth starters, will be decent as a number four, and would be a below average #2 or #3 starter. He's an older and more expensive Jerome Williams. (For those who'd like to disagree, here are Williams ERA+ for 2003-2005: 130, 105, 100.)

 

Pena at age 24 has a chance to blossom into a very good hitter. With Arroyo, what you see is what you get.

 

Boston made a steal here, and that's even if Pena doesn't pan out to much. Arroyo was the sixth starter behind Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wells, and Wakefield. Papelbon is likely a better pitcher than Arroyo, and with Lester coming along, Arroyo was useless. Pena will make an excellent platoon for Nixon and gives them another young outfielder to pair with Crisp for the future of the franchise.

 

I understand the Reds need pitching, but is Arroyo really the type of pitching they need? He's not a difference maker and they aren't an Arroyo away from competing. Now their offense (which was their one strength) is weaker and their pitching isn't appreciably better.

 

I can't fathom that there wasn't a better deal out there to be made.

 

The Reds need pitching desperately, particularly pitching they can afford. Arroyo becomes their best pitcher (even if he should be a servicable 3rd), and allows them to shift Dunn back to LF, and possibly add another pitcher .

 

Pena may seem like a lot of talent to give up, but the Reds could afford to give him up (and clearly favored Kearns more), and they still might be able to acquire another pitcher with the financial flexibility Arroyo provides.

 

It really is a smart move for them, as well as Boston.

[Warpticon]

In the last three seasons, Pena has produced an OPS+ of 66 in 03, 121 in 04, and 100 in 05. He's 24, so he's likely to be a productive player for the next few seasons.

 

Arroyo has posted ERA+ of 121 in 2004 but 98 in 2005. (He had a 227 ERA+ in 2003, but that was in only 17.3 IP of relief). He's 29. He's likely to be an average pitcher for the remainder of his deal. His ERA+ will float around 100. He's better than a lot of fifth starters, will be decent as a number four, and would be a below average #2 or #3 starter. He's an older and more expensive Jerome Williams. (For those who'd like to disagree, here are Williams ERA+ for 2003-2005: 130, 105, 100.)

 

Pena at age 24 has a chance to blossom into a very good hitter. With Arroyo, what you see is what you get.

 

Boston made a steal here, and that's even if Pena doesn't pan out to much. Arroyo was the sixth starter behind Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wells, and Wakefield. Papelbon is likely a better pitcher than Arroyo, and with Lester coming along, Arroyo was useless. Pena will make an excellent platoon for Nixon and gives them another young outfielder to pair with Crisp for the future of the franchise.

 

I understand the Reds need pitching, but is Arroyo really the type of pitching they need? He's not a difference maker and they aren't an Arroyo away from competing. Now their offense (which was their one strength) is weaker and their pitching isn't appreciably better.

 

I can't fathom that there wasn't a better deal out there to be made.

 

The Reds need pitching desperately, particularly pitching they can afford. Arroyo becomes their best pitcher (even if he should be a servicable 3rd), and allows them to shift Dunn back to LF, and possibly add another pitcher .

 

Pena may seem like a lot of talent to give up, but the Reds could afford to give him up (and clearly favored Kearns more), and they still might be able to acquire another pitcher with the financial flexibility Arroyo provides.

 

It really is a smart move for them, as well as Boston.

 

I'm sorry, I don't understand "allows them to shift Dunn back to LF."

 

a) how is that positive?

b) Who's playing first if he's in LF?

[Blueheart05]

In the last three seasons, Pena has produced an OPS+ of 66 in 03, 121 in 04, and 100 in 05. He's 24, so he's likely to be a productive player for the next few seasons.

 

Arroyo has posted ERA+ of 121 in 2004 but 98 in 2005. (He had a 227 ERA+ in 2003, but that was in only 17.3 IP of relief). He's 29. He's likely to be an average pitcher for the remainder of his deal. His ERA+ will float around 100. He's better than a lot of fifth starters, will be decent as a number four, and would be a below average #2 or #3 starter. He's an older and more expensive Jerome Williams. (For those who'd like to disagree, here are Williams ERA+ for 2003-2005: 130, 105, 100.)

 

Pena at age 24 has a chance to blossom into a very good hitter. With Arroyo, what you see is what you get.

 

Boston made a steal here, and that's even if Pena doesn't pan out to much. Arroyo was the sixth starter behind Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wells, and Wakefield. Papelbon is likely a better pitcher than Arroyo, and with Lester coming along, Arroyo was useless. Pena will make an excellent platoon for Nixon and gives them another young outfielder to pair with Crisp for the future of the franchise.

 

I understand the Reds need pitching, but is Arroyo really the type of pitching they need? He's not a difference maker and they aren't an Arroyo away from competing. Now their offense (which was their one strength) is weaker and their pitching isn't appreciably better.

 

I can't fathom that there wasn't a better deal out there to be made.

 

The Reds need pitching desperately, particularly pitching they can afford. Arroyo becomes their best pitcher (even if he should be a servicable 3rd), and allows them to shift Dunn back to LF, and possibly add another pitcher .

 

Pena may seem like a lot of talent to give up, but the Reds could afford to give him up (and clearly favored Kearns more), and they still might be able to acquire another pitcher with the financial flexibility Arroyo provides.

 

It really is a smart move for them, as well as Boston.

 

I'm sorry, I don't understand "allows them to shift Dunn back to LF."

 

a) how is that positive?

b) Who's playing first if he's in LF?

 

Narron says Hatteberg at 1B with Dunn in LF.

 

You can forget about Dunn staying at first base. He may get the occasional look there, but he'll be back in left basically full-time, with Hatteberg getting most of the starts at first. I imagine we'll see Aurilia over there a bit more, too.

 

"Adam Dunn is a better left fielder than Wily Mo would be, and Hatteberg will be a better first baseman than Adam Dunn would be," said Jerry Narron. "So I think defensively we helped ourselves, and the pitching part of it is outstanding for us."

[Outshined_One]

Apparently they've been trying to work Hatteberg and Womack (ugh) into the lineup. Dunn was pretty much slated to start in LF from the get-go since he's rather defensively unsound...well, pretty much everywhere. However, that deficiency can be minimalized with him in LF.

 

Pena demanded to be traded earlier in the season if the Reds had no plans of playing him regularly, so that didn't help his case very much.

 

Their offense is still pretty strong with this trade, but with WMP's upside, you'd think they might have gotten something better out of it. Arroyo's career ERA against the NL is over 5, as memory serves me, and tends to be more of a flyball pitcher than a groundball kind of guy.

 

This might turn out well for them in the end...but my gut says otherwise.

[abuck1220]

why is it that everybody's got such a thing for defense these days? do they think it makes them seem 'fundamental'? wow, your lf and 1b defense got better...two pivotal defensive positions. nevermind the 30 homers you just shipped out...those runs will all be more than made up by having a good defensive first baseman. :roll: