Are the Cardinals vulnerable?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm being completely serious, but if the season started today with each team in the NL Central having the exact players they have now, the Brewers should be the favorites.

[CubinNY]

I'm being completely serious, but if the season started today with each team in the NL Central having the exact players they have now, the Brewers should be the favorites.

 

I agree Vance. I think Pittsburgh is going to be better than last year too. If the Cubs don't land Tejada or a big bat for the outfield I will be very worried about fighting it out for last place with Cincinnatti.

[wolf stansson]

I'm being completely serious, but if the season started today with each team in the NL Central having the exact players they have now, the Brewers should be the favorites.

I disagree. There's not much dropoff sliding Reyes in for Morris, and add Rolen. Our lineup with Luna, Taguchi, and JRod would put us ahead of Milwaukee. Our bullpen could screw us over, but not if current rumors of a Rincon and Dotel signing are true. Probably aren't though.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm being completely serious, but if the season started today with each team in the NL Central having the exact players they have now, the Brewers should be the favorites.

I disagree. There's not much dropoff sliding Reyes in for Morris, and add Rolen. Our lineup with Luna, Taguchi, and JRod would put us ahead of Milwaukee. Our bullpen could screw us over, but not if current rumors of a Rincon and Dotel signing are true. Probably aren't though.

 

All bias aside, I don't think the Cards would be the favorites if the season started today. You will be getting Rolen back, but I don't think you will ever see the Rolen of 2004 again. Taguchi and J-Rod on the corners is just weak. Eckstein and Carpenter had career years they are highly unlikely to repeat. Even if you signe Rincon (who isn't as good as King) and Dotel (won't pitch till June), your bullpen is suspect. I agree with Vance that Milwaukee has a slightly stonger team as of this minute.

 

The Central division picture is really cloudy right now. If the season started tomorrow, I don't think there would be a 90-win team in the division. Good thing there is a lot of hot stove action to come.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wow, that seems to be really underrating the Cardinals to say they don't look to be a 90 win team next year. It's possible they could regress to below 90 wins next year, but I think on paper they definitely look better than that.

[XZero771679666304]

Wow, that seems to be really underrating the Cardinals to say they don't look to be a 90 win team next year. It's possible they could regress to below 90 wins next year, but I think on paper they definitely look better than that.

 

Well, if the season started tomorrow, they certainly wouldn't be nearly as good as they were last year. I think that is pretty clear, and I don't think that is underestimating them.

 

Fortunately for the Cards, Cubs and Astros the season does not start tomorrow, though.

[UK1679666180]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/375575p-319169c.html

 

Good news: Those backloaded contracts are starting to rear its ugly head.

 

Despite vigorous denials from GM Walt Jocketty and manager Tony La Russa, the rumblings around baseball are that Cards general partner Bill DeWitt and his partners, who are on the hook for nearly $200 million for construction of the new ballpark opening next season, have severely tightened the purse strings. The Cardinal payroll is being kept at $90 million, despite some huge raises via backloaded contracts to Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen and evidence of a huge increase in revenues.

 

Bad News: They've priced themselves out of Jones' range.

 

Meanwhile, much as the Cardinals need to replace Sanders' 25-homer pop in the outfield, Jocketty is on record as saying free agents Jacque Jones and Juan Encarnacion are out of his price range.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/375575p-319169c.html

 

Good news: Those backloaded contracts are starting to rear its ugly head.

 

Despite vigorous denials from GM Walt Jocketty and manager Tony La Russa, the rumblings around baseball are that Cards general partner Bill DeWitt and his partners, who are on the hook for nearly $200 million for construction of the new ballpark opening next season, have severely tightened the purse strings. The Cardinal payroll is being kept at $90 million, despite some huge raises via backloaded contracts to Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen and evidence of a huge increase in revenues.

 

Bad News: They've priced themselves out of Jones' range.

 

Meanwhile, much as the Cardinals need to replace Sanders' 25-homer pop in the outfield, Jocketty is on record as saying free agents Jacque Jones and Juan Encarnacion are out of his price range.

 

Walt Jocketty is one of the most patient GM's in baseball. I'm not in panic mode... yet.

[UK1679666180]

Walt Jocketty is one of the most patient GM's in baseball. I'm not in panic mode... yet.

 

With what resources?

 

Right now at OF, there is little supply, greater demand, and a higher price since the supply can't meet the demand.

 

2B- There's no supply, somewhat of a demand unless you're comfortable with Luna, and once again no money.

 

Last year, when he got Grudzielanek, Eckstein, and Molina, they was decent quailty avail. as well as the money to get them or in the case of Molina slide him in there.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Walt Jocketty is one of the most patient GM's in baseball. I'm not in panic mode... yet.

 

With what resources?

 

Right now at OF, there is little supply, greater demand, and a higher price since the supply can't meet the demand.

 

2B- There's no supply, somewhat of a demand unless you're comfortable with Luna, and once again no money.

 

Last year, when he got Grudzielanek, Eckstein, and Molina, they was decent quailty avail. as well as the money to get them or in the case of Molina slide him in there.

 

Stop it - I'm in denial. Leave me alone.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Walt Jocketty is one of the most patient GM's in baseball. I'm not in panic mode... yet.

 

With what resources?

 

Right now at OF, there is little supply, greater demand, and a higher price since the supply can't meet the demand.

 

2B- There's no supply, somewhat of a demand unless you're comfortable with Luna, and once again no money.

 

Last year, when he got Grudzielanek, Eckstein, and Molina, they was decent quailty avail. as well as the money to get them or in the case of Molina slide him in there.

Don't forget Bo Hart! The fans love him!

[K-Town]

Walt Jocketty is one of the most patient GM's in baseball. I'm not in panic mode... yet.

 

With what resources?

 

Right now at OF, there is little supply, greater demand, and a higher price since the supply can't meet the demand.

 

2B- There's no supply, somewhat of a demand unless you're comfortable with Luna, and once again no money.

 

Last year, when he got Grudzielanek, Eckstein, and Molina, they was decent quailty avail. as well as the money to get them or in the case of Molina slide him in there.

Don't forget Bo Hart! The fans love him!

 

What fans? Cardinal fans think he's horrible.

[vaball]

Walt Jocketty is one of the most patient GM's in baseball. I'm not in panic mode... yet.

 

With what resources?

 

Right now at OF, there is little supply, greater demand, and a higher price since the supply can't meet the demand.

 

2B- There's no supply, somewhat of a demand unless you're comfortable with Luna, and once again no money.

 

Last year, when he got Grudzielanek, Eckstein, and Molina, they was decent quailty avail. as well as the money to get them or in the case of Molina slide him in there.

Don't forget Bo Hart! The fans love him!

 

What fans? Cardinal fans think he's horrible.

 

Unfortunetaly, he is.

[CubinNY]

Bo Hart + Augie Ojeda = Neifi Perez Edited December 19, 2005 by CubinNY

[UK1679666180]

Everyone loves the white 5'5" red-head utility IF'er, no talent, but he looks like the bat boy so let's cheer him as STL did w/Hart.

 

I always considered Augie to be more of a mascot than a ballplayer.

[vaball]

Everyone loves the white 5'5" red-head utility IF'er, no talent, but he looks like the bat boy so let's cheer him as STL did w/Hart.

 

I always considered Augie to be more of a mascot than a ballplayer.

 

To be fair, Bo did have a spectacular offensive and defensive month that justified his adoration beyond his WHUFF status.

 

But then his production dropped off the face of the earth . . .

[stitchface]

Two things are certain:

1) Pierre is nowhere close to the best leadoff hitter in baseball

2) Carpenter was not lucky in 2005 and similar results can be expected.

 

That being said, had the Cubs made a couple good acquisitions this winter, the Cardinals would be catchable. Looks to me like neither Houston or Chicago has stepped to the plate this winter so far though. At best we can hope for a four team dogfight.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I don't think Carpenter had a very fluky year.

 

BUT, I do expect somewhat of a dropoff. He looked exhausted at the end of the season and was very hittable, but I still expect him to put up good numbers in the end. He's got great control and his stuff has improved after surgery...so I don't expect a huge fall or anything for him.

[PieOnMyHands]

I don't think Carpenter had a very fluky year.

 

BUT, I do expect somewhat of a dropoff. He looked exhausted at the end of the season and was very hittable, but I still expect him to put up good numbers in the end. He's got great control and his stuff has improved after surgery...so I don't expect a huge fall or anything for him.

 

I don't think it was him being exhausted, so much as him losing focus. He noted that he lost focus after we clinched the division.

 

 

I was very paranoid and figured he was just convering him really ending the season poorly... but then the postseason came, and he had a 2.14 ERA in 21 IP.

 

 

All bias aside, I don't think the Cards would be the favorites if the season started today. You will be getting Rolen back, but I don't think you will ever see the Rolen of 2004 again. Taguchi and J-Rod on the corners is just weak. Eckstein and Carpenter had career years they are highly unlikely to repeat. Even if you signe Rincon (who isn't as good as King) and Dotel (won't pitch till June), your bullpen is suspect. I agree with Vance that Milwaukee has a slightly stonger team as of this minute.

 

The Central division picture is really cloudy right now. If the season started tomorrow, I don't think there would be a 90-win team in the division. Good thing there is a lot of hot stove action to come.

 

I'll respectfull disagree and argue this: you're undervaluing the addition of Rolen. We're going from Nunez to Rolen. While Nunez had a career year, his OPS was only .704! Rolen's career OPS is something like .890. Even if he doesn't do what he did in 2004, he's undeniably a significant upgrade over Nunez.

[Blueheart05]

I don't think Carpenter had a very fluky year.

 

BUT, I do expect somewhat of a dropoff. He looked exhausted at the end of the season and was very hittable, but I still expect him to put up good numbers in the end. He's got great control and his stuff has improved after surgery...so I don't expect a huge fall or anything for him.

 

I don't think it was him being exhausted, so much as him losing focus. He noted that he lost focus after we clinched the division.

 

 

I was very paranoid and figured he was just convering him really ending the season poorly... but then the postseason came, and he had a 2.14 ERA in 21 IP.

 

 

All bias aside, I don't think the Cards would be the favorites if the season started today. You will be getting Rolen back, but I don't think you will ever see the Rolen of 2004 again. Taguchi and J-Rod on the corners is just weak. Eckstein and Carpenter had career years they are highly unlikely to repeat. Even if you signe Rincon (who isn't as good as King) and Dotel (won't pitch till June), your bullpen is suspect. I agree with Vance that Milwaukee has a slightly stonger team as of this minute.

 

The Central division picture is really cloudy right now. If the season started tomorrow, I don't think there would be a 90-win team in the division. Good thing there is a lot of hot stove action to come.

 

I'll respectfull disagree and argue this: you're undervaluing the addition of Rolen. We're going from Nunez to Rolen. While Nunez had a career year, his OPS was only .704! Rolen's career OPS is something like .890. Even if he doesn't do what he did in 2004, he's undeniably a significant upgrade over Nunez.

 

The Cardinals have no idea what kind of production Rolen will provide. He's rehabbing a shoulder which may affect his swing. Rolen is a question mark until he proves otherwise.

[PujolsPower]

I think that the additions the Cardinals have made and Rolen's return to the lineup should put the Cardinals at close to the same level that they were last year. FWIW, the oddsmakers have the Cardinals and Mets as the betting favorites to be the NL team in the WS. The source is betonsports.com

 

Odds to win the 2006 World Series 

 St Louis Cardinals  +500 

 New York Yankees  +400 

 Boston Red Sox  +650 

 Oakland Athletics  +1300 

 Los Angeles Angels  +1300 

 Chicago White Sox  +900 

 Minnesota Twins  +1600 

 Cleveland Indians  +1300 

 Houston Astros  +1500 

 Atlanta Braves  +2500 

 Chicago Cubs  +1400 

 Florida Marlins  +1600 

 Philadelphia Phillies  +2500 

 New York Mets  +500 

 San Francisco Giants  +3500 

 San Diego Padres  +4000 

 Los Angeles Dodgers  +4000 

 Arizona Diamondbacks  +6000 

 Texas Rangers  +4500 

 Baltimore Orioles  +8000 

 Detroit Tigers  +8000 

 Toronto Blue Jays  +3000 

 Seattle Mariners  +8000 

 Milwaukee Brewers  +8000 

 Washington Nationals  +6500 

 Cincinnati Reds  +8000 

 Pittsburgh Pirates  +10000 

 Colorado Rockies  +12000 

 Tampa Bay Devil Rays  +12000 

 Kansas City Royals  +12000

[PieOnMyHands]

The Cardinals have no idea what kind of production Rolen will provide. He's rehabbing a shoulder which may affect his swing. Rolen is a question mark until he proves otherwise.

 

I'll take my chances with Scott Rolen over Abraham Nunez.

 

AVG 	  OBP 	 SLG     OPS
.235 	.323 	.383 	.706 (roughly 200 injured Scott Rolen at-bats)
.285 	.343 	.361 	.704 (421 Abraham Nunez at-bats)

 

An injured Scott Rolen that experiences pain every time he swings a bat is (slightly) more productive than Abraham Nunez.

[SouthSideRyan]

Nitpick, but Nunez's line is more productive than Rolen's. 20 points of OBP is worth more than 22 points of SLG.

 

And how old are those odds, Marlins at 1600??

[PieOnMyHands]

Nitpick, but Nunez's line is more productive than Rolen's. 20 points of OBP is worth more than 22 points of SLG.

 

And how old are those odds, Marlins at 1600??

 

True, but regardless... that's still saying something about what kind of upgrade we're going to expect.

 

And you can argue that Rolen might not revert back to career form... but he's almost certain to be better than last year, when he would wince in pain when he would swing and miss.

[PujolsPower]

And how old are those odds, Marlins at 1600??

 

Those are the current odds being offered.