Are the Cardinals vulnerable?

[The Voice of Reason]

From Jayson Stark, link to complete story attached.

 

"That's a team whose window to win may be closing," said one GM. "They'll still be good. But they're getting thinner, and they're getting older, and they're getting more vulnerable."

 

And what happened at these winter meetings -- when a starting pitcher they clearly wanted to sign didn't bite on the "You Should Take A Little Less Because We're The Cardinals" sales pitch -- could be an indication of just how much more vulnerable they really are

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2253019

Edited December 9, 2005 by The Voice of Reason

[E.J.]

The thing that I don't get with the Cardinals is that they bring in fans every year, they have a new stadium which will bring in new revenue, so why aren't they spending money? If the Trib did this Cub fans would be up in arms.

[K-Town]

The thing that I don't get with the Cardinals is that they bring in fans every year, they have a new stadium which will bring in new revenue, so why aren't they spending money? If the Trib did this Cub fans would be up in arms.

 

Cardinal fans ARE up in arms (see the PD message board).

 

I'm not. What do you sugget they spend their money on? Jacques Jones? Johnny Damon? Kevin Millwood?

 

No thanks.

[E.J.]

The thing that I don't get with the Cardinals is that they bring in fans every year, they have a new stadium which will bring in new revenue, so why aren't they spending money? If the Trib did this Cub fans would be up in arms.

 

Cardinal fans ARE up in arms (see the PD message board).

 

I'm not. What do you sugget they spend their money on? Jacques Jones? Johnny Damon? Kevin Millwood?

 

No thanks.

 

So you're happy with your team as is?

[UK1679666180]

Well, so far I don't think Cubs fans would be content with their team in their current state.

 

I don't think Cards or Astros fans would be as well.

 

All 3 teams would be happy to finish around .500 in their current state.

[cubbyvirus00]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

[The Voice of Reason]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

Hopefully some of the Cubs pitchers will have "lucky" years this year. :wink:

[UK1679666180]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

Having no RF'er in its current state will put this offense back to '04 levels as well as counting on Lee to produce exact numbers as last year.

[Tim]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

Having no RF'er in its current state will put this offense back to '04 levels as well as counting on Lee to produce exact numbers as last year.

It also seems as though people just assume that Aramis will actually stay healthy for a full year, too.

[BigbadB]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

Having no RF'er in its current state will put this offense back to '04 levels as well as counting on Lee to produce exact numbers as last year.

It also seems as though people just assume that Aramis will actually stay healthy for a full year, too.

 

Which is why Nomar's return should have been priority #1 this offseason. If Aramis isn't healthy, Nomar plays 3rd. If Furcal isn't signed and Cedeno is playing 2nd, Nomar plays SS. If we don't get an impact RFer, Nomar plays RF. If Aramis is healthy, we have an impact bat in RF and we have Furcal in left, Nomar would probably give us his blessing to move him to a team that would give him the opportunity to play everyday if we truly didn't have a spot for him.

 

But, now I'm crying over spilled milk.

[snoodmonger]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

What makes you say Carpenter was lucky?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

I think that's a very REALISTic assessment.

[Andy]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

What makes you say Carpenter was lucky?

 

Carpenter's tats

 

2000 - 6.26 ERA

2001 - 4.09 ERA

2002 - 5.28 ERA

2003 - did not play

2004 - 3.46 ERA

2005 - 2.83 ERA

 

Career high for IP before 2005 - 216.2 (in 01)

2005 IP - 242.2

 

HR allowed in 01, 02, and 04 - 30, 29, 24 (in fewer IP may I remind you)

HR allowed in 05 - 18

 

Career high SO before 2005 - 157

2005 SO - 213

 

Career high W's before 2005 - 12

2005 W's - 21

 

I could go on but you should get the gist by now.

[indifferent]

I agree with the original post, the Cards will score less runs this year as currently constructed (and there's not much out there to think this will change drastically).

 

As far as Carp's "luck" is concerned, this is a unique instance where the stats guys need to step away from the computer. He has always had the stuff and he was plagued by injuries. Did you see him pitch in person over the last two years? No fluke and no luck involved (other than staying healthy). Of course, he very well could be injured again. I could go on about lucky, flukish players on the Cards, but Carp's not one of them.

[Andy]

I agree with the original post, the Cards will score less runs this year as currently constructed (and there's not much out there to think this will change drastically).

 

As far as Carp's "luck" is concerned, this is a unique instance where the stats guys need to step away from the computer. He has always had the stuff and he was plagued by injuries. Did you see him pitch in person over the last two years? No fluke and no luck involved (other than staying healthy). Of course, he very well could be injured again. I could go on about lucky, flukish players on the Cards, but Carp's not one of them.

Exactly my point. Injury prone guy stayed healthy and he was lucky to do so. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior have gotten no such courtesy from the Baseball Gods the last couple years.

[snoodmonger]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

If you think thats not going to ignite the Cubs offense, then you're mistaken.

 

The Cardinals had a problem on offense last year, their problem will be worse this year. Not to mention I don't expect another lucky year for Carpenter.

 

What makes you say Carpenter was lucky?

 

Carpenter's tats

 

2000 - 6.26 ERA

2001 - 4.09 ERA

2002 - 5.28 ERA

2003 - did not play

2004 - 3.46 ERA

2005 - 2.83 ERA

 

Career high for IP before 2005 - 216.2 (in 01)

2005 IP - 242.2

 

HR allowed in 01, 02, and 04 - 30, 29, 24 (in fewer IP may I remind you)

HR allowed in 05 - 18

 

Career high SO before 2005 - 157

2005 SO - 213

 

Career high W's before 2005 - 12

2005 W's - 21

 

I could go on but you should get the gist by now.

 

As far as the ERA goes, he was younger (25 in 2000) and pitching in the American League. it stands to reason that he might get hit a bit harder early in his career for both those reasons.

 

The strikeouts going up might have something to do with him pitching more innings.

 

We've all discussed how little wins mean as far as an individual pitching statsitic, so I dismiss the relevance of that stat.

 

The HR allowed I'll give you; that seems anomolous, and I also agree his durability is questionable. But we've all seen him pitch. He has good stuff, and I don't see why it's out of the realm of possibility that he might just be pretty good.

[Andy]

I don't think wins mean much, either, but nine wins is quite a jump in a career high. If he were an OF and had a proportional jump in home runs then everyone would be clamoring for a steroids test. Which is not to say that Carp is juicing, I'm just saying it's evidence of the magical power of the Cardinals uniform.

[indifferent]

I agree with the original post, the Cards will score less runs this year as currently constructed (and there's not much out there to think this will change drastically).

 

As far as Carp's "luck" is concerned, this is a unique instance where the stats guys need to step away from the computer. He has always had the stuff and he was plagued by injuries. Did you see him pitch in person over the last two years? No fluke and no luck involved (other than staying healthy). Of course, he very well could be injured again. I could go on about lucky, flukish players on the Cards, but Carp's not one of them.

Exactly my point. Injury prone guy stayed healthy and he was lucky to do so. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior have gotten no such courtesy from the Baseball Gods the last couple years.

 

How is that exactly your point? You made no mention of his injuries, you were basing your argument on his career stats.

[Inthecards]

reminds me of some players like these

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3180

except carp found his faster

 

or this guy it took him 3 years to find his too

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2131

 

All I am trying to say is he was considered the bluejay's ace before he got hurt...infront of roy. 02 he only started what 13 games? Geez give the guy a break he probally pitched some of those with a hurt shoulder.

2001 a 4.09 era isnt that bad in the AL.

 

 

No he likely wont have an ERA under 3 again but do you honestly think Z would repeat his 04 performance or Prior's 03?

Sub 3s are great accomplishments and not the norm for every year.

 

I predict it will be a 3.24 and 18 and 6

 

Not to mention ERA are alittle based on your teams defense too :wink:

[wolf stansson]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

That's extremely freaking arguable.

[CubinNY]

Yeah but the Cubs just aquired arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Juan Pierre plays every game, every day.

 

That's extremely freaking arguable.

 

I know. We just had about 30 pages worth.

 

I wish the Cubs would have aquired arguably the best player in baseball.

[Chief_Cardinal]

The thing that I don't get with the Cardinals is that they bring in fans every year, they have a new stadium which will bring in new revenue, so why aren't they spending money? If the Trib did this Cub fans would be up in arms.

 

The thing that the Cardinal fans have suddenly forgotten is that the increase in payroll the past few years was a result of a new stadium coming, as well as all the back loaded contracts. So they are already started spending the money that was expected to come in from the new stadium.

[ManEatingTarp]

Scott Rolen will be the Cardinals big pick up this year.

 

That said, I think they are going to come back to the pack in 06. Things look down right now, but there is still a lot of hot stove left.

[Andy]

Scott Rolen will be the Cardinals big pick up this year.

 

That said, I think they are going to come back to the pack in 06. Things look down right now, but there is still a lot of hot stove left.

If they do indeed come back to the pack, we're the beneficiaries. :D

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Scott Rolen will be the Cardinals big pick up this year.

 

That said, I think they are going to come back to the pack in 06. Things look down right now, but there is still a lot of hot stove left.

 

When it's all said and done I think we'll look like a 90-95 win team. Really, that's all you can ask for.