2006 Cubs' ZIPS projections

[wade]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

 

Didn't see this elsewhere.

 

Any thoughts?

 

I found the lack of love for Todd Walker's OBP chances strange. 336 would be a huge drop for him.

 

I think these are not considered as accurate as PECOTA, but it's interesting nonetheless.

[imb]

I'll take an almost 1000 ops from lee. Ill take Barrett's season too.

 

Oh, and if Cedeno is really just 70 points of slugging below Nomar, give me Ronny.

[AAApittsburgh]

Pitching not too impressive.

[CuseCubFan69]

Pitching not too impressive.

 

Especially the pen...yikes.

[sethuel1]

14 homers and 16 doubles in 470 at-bats for Murton?

[imb]

something to think about

 

Nomar - .287 .335 .483

 

Ronny - .287 .332 .412

 

Furcal - .282 .352 .431

 

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[rocket]

the good news is that if you go buy the pitcher's predicted win totals the cubs will have 168 wins next season

[imb]

the good news is that if you go buy the pitcher's predicted win totals the cubs will have 168 wins next season

 

that might be a record

[wade]

the good news is that if you go buy the pitcher's predicted win totals the cubs will have 168 wins next season

 

that might be a record

 

They'd still blow the division in the last week.

[Hector Villanuevas Pants]

Has anyone ever gone back and tested the accuracy of these projections? It's easy to create a forecasting model (OK, not really), but before I start getting happy or concerned I'd like to know if these projections have a history of being accurate.

[Jehrico]

who the heck is oliver?

[wade]

Has anyone ever gone back and tested the accuracy of these projections? It's easy to create a forecasting model (OK, not really), but before I start getting happy or concerned I'd like to know if these projections have a history of being accurate.

 

The site I found those projections on did.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2515

 

ZiPS is labled as "Primer" in the comparison.

 

I'll need Bob's Keeper's cliff notes version to understand it, though.

[wade]

who the heck is oliver?

 

I suppose it's crafty left-hander Darren Oliver.

[USSoccer]

14 homers and 16 doubles in 470 at-bats for Murton?

 

I see between 15-25 HR's, but waaaay more doubles for Murton. He's not slow, and 450 AB's is a lot.

[CuseCubFan69]

Rumor has it that Murton has switched to a wiffle ball bat to increase his bat speed. That may have something to do with the lack of power.

[sethuel1]

14 homers and 16 doubles in 470 at-bats for Murton?

 

I see between 15-25 HR's, but waaaay more doubles for Murton. He's not slow, and 450 AB's is a lot.

 

Precisely. You can't peg Neifi at nearly twice as many doubles in approximately the same number of at-bats as Murton.

[CubsWin]

Does anybody know how to find an archive to their previous projections? I look around that site, but couldn't find any.

[hardcorecubfan]

Has anyone ever gone back and tested the accuracy of these projections? It's easy to create a forecasting model (OK, not really), but before I start getting happy or concerned I'd like to know if these projections have a history of being accurate.

 

Agreed, where/who is doing this research, what odds making team in Vegas has he been working for. anybody/moron can slap a webpage up these days. got to go to get my webpage up and running

[Laura]

Here's the discussion thread for the '05 projections. The link to the actual projections isn't working anymore.

[NewUserName]

I dont understand the minor league players numbers. Are these the numbers they will have in AAA or AA or are these the numbers they would have if they played in the majors? I am sure it was on there somewhere I just didnt see it.

[CubsWin]

Here's the discussion thread for the '05 projections. The link to the actual projections isn't working anymore.

Thanks for finding last year's thread, Serena. Can it be accessed by none Premium members? I tried using the same url but just deleting the premium part, but that didn't work.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here's the discussion thread for the '05 projections. The link to the actual projections isn't working anymore.

Thanks for finding last year's thread, Serena. Can it be accessed by none Premium members? I tried using the same url but just deleting the premium part, but that didn't work.

 

I just took out the Premium portion and it worked fine.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Here's the discussion thread for the '05 projections. The link to the actual projections isn't working anymore.

Thanks for finding last year's thread, Serena. Can it be accessed by none Premium members? I tried using the same url but just deleting the premium part, but that didn't work.

 

It did for me: viewtopic.php?t=16243&highlight=cubs+zips

[SouthSideRyan]

I dont understand the minor league players numbers. Are these the numbers they will have in AAA or AA or are these the numbers they would have if they played in the majors? I am sure it was on there somewhere I just didnt see it.

 

In order to get a decent enough sample, players are projected out to more ABs/Gs than they would get. All #s are based on major league stats.

[CoolHandLuke]

I dont understand the minor league players numbers. Are these the numbers they will have in AAA or AA or are these the numbers they would have if they played in the majors? I am sure it was on there somewhere I just didnt see it.

 

In order to get a decent enough sample, players are projected out to more ABs/Gs than they would get. All #s are based on major league stats.

 

How do they do a guy like Brandon Sing then? by the way if Sing can put up those number then I say give him a spot on the bench.