Regarding Hendry

[rsmoler]

In my mind, this is the year to really evaluate Hendry. Last year he was hamstrung by Sosa's contract and wondering if he was going to be able to trade Sosa or not. He also had the Ramirez signing hanging over his head. The club was full of major questionmarks (the bullpen, Patterson, the bench, Hollandsworth, etc.) and there were few established prospects to maneuver with.

 

This year Hendry has all the latitude in the world. He's got a lot of money to spend with the departure of Sosa, Hawkins, Remlinger, etc., he has legitimate prospects to trade for some A rated players if he wants to part with Cedeno, Hill, Murton, Williams, Mitre, etc., the only major signing he has to deal with is Dempster (who's contract should be managable), and, I think, he's got a much better idea of the capabilities of his club. If he messes up this off season, then I think it will be time to look for a new GM. My guess is he'll get the job done.

 

I look for Hendry to get a leadoff man (Furcal), a lefty for the bullpen to supplement Ohman, and possibly one outfielder to play either left or right (I think Murton will be the 4th outfielder). If Maddux doesn't come back he'll also get a starting pitcher. He should be able to put the whole team together for well under $100 million in total salary, which will give him plenty of room to maneuver at the trade deadline.

[DougDascenzo]

just one outfielder???

 

who do you plan on keeping? Burnitz or Patterson?

 

IMO we cant go into next year depending on either.

 

I say move Nomar to second and let Walker go. True Walker would be cheaper, but if we're going to have a poppy caca on D second baseman it should be Nomar over Todd Walker...besides nomar will be fairly cheap anyway. I say also retain Neifi to back up both Ronny and Nomar, and also fill in for Nomar if/when he gets hurt.

 

Try to get Giles. If you cant get giles, then trade for cliff floyd or adam dunn or someone..anyone

 

CF could be addressed in a number of ways. just imagine if we got giles and Damon

 

Damon

Cedeno

Giles

Lee

Ramirez

Nomar

Murton

Barret

 

probly not likely to get both tho :(

 

So a lead off hitting centerfielder needs to be acquired. Jacque Jones? Juan Pierre? Podsednik? I dont know but this is the trickiest part.

 

If all else fails i guess go with a Patterson Hairston platoon until Pie is ready....This should be the last option

 

Use the remaining money to get two good arms for the bullpen and a power back up infielder like say mackowiak or someone similar who could play 1b and 3b...

[CubsWin]

Remember that movie starring Harrison Ford called Regarding Henry. It was about a guy who survives a shooting only to find he can't remember anything. Boy, was that a bad one.

 

For a second, I thought this thread was going to be a parody of that somehow involving Jim Hendry. Maybe Hendry gets hit in the head by a foul ball and doesn't remember anything about baseball, but he returns to his job as GM of the Cubs after reading Moneyball. The Cubs win the world series and everyone lives happily ever after.

 

What do you think? Should we make it? :wink:

[DougDascenzo]

It was about a guy who survives a shooting only to find he can't remember anything. Boy, was that a bad one.

 

:

 

that movie was awesome what are you talking about???

[YearofDaCubs]

Maddux is coming back for sure. He already has said that he is. I dont care if Sosa needed to go or not, I still hold Hendry accountable for this year and next.

[craig]

This year Hendry has all the latitude in the world. He's got a lot of money to spend with the departure of Sosa, Hawkins, Remlinger, etc., he has legitimate prospects to trade for some A rated players if he wants to part with Cedeno, Hill, Murton, Williams, Mitre, etc., the only major signing he has to deal with is Dempster (who's contract should be managable), ....

 

Good points. He does have a lot of money and flexibility.

 

Part of that flexibility is having a lot of servicable options internally for open spots, even if some of the internal options aren't great. It's not like he absolutely *has* to get a rotation pitcher; he could hope that Wood will be healthy, and Williams or Rusch or a prospect could handle #5. It's not like he *has* to get a 2B; walker could do that, or Cedeno, or Hairston, or perhaps Nomar. It's not like he *has* to get a SS; Cedeno could do, or Neifi wouldn't be the end of the world (if some other spots were upgraded significantly, a team could win with Neifi at SS..), or Nomar might be a possibility again. It's not like he *has* to get a LF; Murton might be a good guy there, or Murton/Hairston combo, or perhaps sign Nomar to play left; or even resign Burnitz to play left instead of right, and to platoon or share with Murton. It's not like Hendry *has* to get an outside CF; he could go with Hairston, and hope that Corey would bounce back, or Pie would be ready sooner rather than later. And it's not like he *has* to get an outside RF. Burnitz isn't going to carry you, but he wasn't awful, and if the rest of the team was clicking, having Burnitz be an average RF wouldn't be the end of the world. Or Nomar could perhaps be resigned, but used in RF.

 

My point is, Hendry doesn't really need to go after roster-fill players to plug any of the holes. He's got acceptable hole-fillers for each of the open spot, guys who look decent enough so that if he was to focus his spending and successfully upgraded 2-4 of the spots, he could just leave things alone and settle with the internal candidates at a couple of the other spots that don't get addressed with outside pickups.

 

He'll clearly have the capacity to make several big moves this winter, unlike last year.

 

I don't think he's got it any lighter in terms of return contracts, though. Last year Aramis was the only major return contract, other than Walker and Nomar. He'll have at least as many FA returners to decide about (Nomar, Dempster, possibly Rusch if he opts out but Hendry wants him back, Burnitz..). And whereas last year Aramis and Dempster (edit: I mean Barrett...) were the only guys entering possible free-agency years, this year DLee, Aramis, and Wood will all be entering a year where they'll have the freedom to become FA's after the year.

Edited September 20, 2005 by craig

[DougDascenzo]

he may have a lot of options position wise preventing him to be hamstrung in terms of HAVING to acquire a SS or HAVING to acquire a CF...

 

But he is handicapped in that he needs to fill specific roles... for instance: a leadoff hitter, a preferably left handed power bat, solid bullpen dudes.

 

This gives other teams more leverage... But like you said, these specific roles can come conceivably at many positions, with in house viable options to fill around them....

[BigbadB]

This year Hendry has all the latitude in the world. He's got a lot of money to spend with the departure of Sosa, Hawkins, Remlinger, etc., he has legitimate prospects to trade for some A rated players if he wants to part with Cedeno, Hill, Murton, Williams, Mitre, etc., the only major signing he has to deal with is Dempster (who's contract should be managable), ....

 

Good points. He does have a lot of money and flexibility.

 

Part of that flexibility is having a lot of servicable options internally for open spots, even if some of the internal options aren't great. It's not like he absolutely *has* to get a rotation pitcher; he could hope that Wood will be healthy, and Williams or Rusch or a prospect could handle #5. It's not like he *has* to get a 2B; walker could do that, or Cedeno, or Hairston, or perhaps Nomar. It's not like he *has* to get a SS; Cedeno could do, or Neifi wouldn't be the end of the world (if some other spots were upgraded significantly, a team could win with Neifi at SS..), or Nomar might be a possibility again. It's not like he *has* to get a LF; Murton might be a good guy there, or Murton/Hairston combo, or perhaps sign Nomar to play left; or even resign Burnitz to play left instead of right, and to platoon or share with Murton. It's not like Hendry *has* to get an outside CF; he could go with Hairston, and hope that Corey would bounce back, or Pie would be ready sooner rather than later. And it's not like he *has* to get an outside RF. Burnitz isn't going to carry you, but he wasn't awful, and if the rest of the team was clicking, having Burnitz be an average RF wouldn't be the end of the world. Or Nomar could perhaps be resigned, but used in RF.

 

My point is, Hendry doesn't really need to go after roster-fill players to plug any of the holes. He's got acceptable hole-fillers for each of the open spot, guys who look decent enough so that if he was to focus his spending and successfully upgraded 2-4 of the spots, he could just leave things alone and settle with the internal candidates at a couple of the other spots that don't get addressed with outside pickups.

 

He'll clearly have the capacity to make several big moves this winter, unlike last year.

 

I don't think he's got it any lighter in terms of return contracts, though. Last year Aramis was the only major return contract, other than Walker and Nomar. He'll have at least as many FA returners to decide about (Nomar, Dempster, possibly Rusch if he opts out but Hendry wants him back, Burnitz..). And whereas last year Aramis and Dempster were the only guys entering possible free-agency years, this year DLee, Aramis, and Wood will all be entering a year where they'll have the freedom to become FA's after the year.

 

I agree with everything here except Neifi. If Neifi is given the shortstop job, he'll be hitting at the top of the order and that is a recipe for failure.

 

As much as Neifi has been a trooper as a utility/replacement guy this year, Dusty can't be trusted with him on the roster. If Cedeno and Neifi were to go into ST battling for the starting job at SS, Cedeno would have to hit like Miguel Tejada to beat Neifi out of the starting job. Reality.

 

It's because of this that Nomar will need to be resigned. Cedeno gets one more year to be an understudy, or becomes the starter in the event Nomar gets hurt. Murton's OBP is currently over .400. Yet, Murton is batting 6th and 7th right now. In a game the other day, Macias and Neifi were batting #1 and #2 in a game that Murton was also playing.

 

Dusty just doesn't get it. Because he doesn't get it, you have to load up the roster in a way that Dusty can't mess it up. This will be Hendry's biggest test this offseason. If he brings back Neifi, Macias or any other hack with an OBP below .300, the season will be on his shoulders.

 

A team that has the financial latitude, the talent to trade, and quality talent already on the roster has no excuse for putting guys who can't get on base on the roster.

[goonys evil twin]

he may have a lot of options position wise preventing him to be hamstrung in terms of HAVING to acquire a SS or HAVING to acquire a CF...

 

But he is handicapped in that he needs to fill specific roles... for instance: a leadoff hitter, a preferably left handed power bat, solid bullpen dudes.

 

This gives other teams more leverage... But like you said, these specific roles can come conceivably at many positions, with in house viable options to fill around them....

 

Actually, this team could thrive with Walker at leadoff. Depending on who they get in the OF, they could also live with Hairston in that role. The only true need they have is one good bat in the OF. After that they have lots of options to mix and match.

[RockTheIvy]

he may have a lot of options position wise preventing him to be hamstrung in terms of HAVING to acquire a SS or HAVING to acquire a CF...

 

But he is handicapped in that he needs to fill specific roles... for instance: a leadoff hitter, a preferably left handed power bat, solid bullpen dudes.

 

This gives other teams more leverage... But like you said, these specific roles can come conceivably at many positions, with in house viable options to fill around them....

 

Actually, this team could thrive with Walker at leadoff. Depending on who they get in the OF, they could also live with Hairston in that role. The only true need they have is one good bat in the OF. After that they have lots of options to mix and match.

 

It would be so sweet to have Lofton and Walker batting 1-2, or even Murton batting second. Since Lofton took off, the Dusty has refused to put table setters at the top of the order. But Lofton is a Dusty guy that actually has some skills.

[AAApittsburgh]

I don't think Hendry is dumb enough to go after Lofton. His inevitable decline will happen when he's wearing a Cubs uni. Mike Cameron plz.

[erik316wttn]

he may have a lot of options position wise preventing him to be hamstrung in terms of HAVING to acquire a SS or HAVING to acquire a CF...

 

But he is handicapped in that he needs to fill specific roles... for instance: a leadoff hitter, a preferably left handed power bat, solid bullpen dudes.

 

This gives other teams more leverage... But like you said, these specific roles can come conceivably at many positions, with in house viable options to fill around them....

 

Actually, this team could thrive with Walker at leadoff. Depending on who they get in the OF, they could also live with Hairston in that role. The only true need they have is one good bat in the OF. After that they have lots of options to mix and match.

 

I never understood why Walker wasn't leading off more. He can walk, he can hit for average. He won't steal 30 bases, but the steal is a lost art anyway. But he can get on base.

 

Murton should be batting 2nd.

 

And Walkers D IS NOT THAT BAD!!! (from a few posts upthread)

 

People talk about him like he's the absolute worst defensive 2Bman the game has ever known. Get over it, people. He's adequate enough to hold it down. He's not going to be the 2nd coming of Sandberg out there. Get that straight.

[DougDascenzo]

he may have a lot of options position wise preventing him to be hamstrung in terms of HAVING to acquire a SS or HAVING to acquire a CF...

 

But he is handicapped in that he needs to fill specific roles... for instance: a leadoff hitter, a preferably left handed power bat, solid bullpen dudes.

 

This gives other teams more leverage... But like you said, these specific roles can come conceivably at many positions, with in house viable options to fill around them....

 

Actually, this team could thrive with Walker at leadoff. Depending on who they get in the OF, they could also live with Hairston in that role. The only true need they have is one good bat in the OF. After that they have lots of options to mix and match.

 

I never understood why Walker wasn't leading off more. He can walk, he can hit for average. He won't steal 30 bases, but the steal is a lost art anyway. But he can get on base.

 

Murton should be batting 2nd.

 

And Walkers D IS NOT THAT BAD!!! (from a few posts upthread)

 

People talk about him like he's the absolute worst defensive 2Bman the game has ever known. Get over it, people. He's adequate enough to hold it down. He's not going to be the 2nd coming of Sandberg out there. Get that straight.

 

Walker's merely adequate defense (the descriptor 'adequate' being arguable at best and downright false in some people's opinion) would be acceptable if we didn't have complete defensive liabilities at SS and 3B

 

an infield of walker nomar and ramirez didn't and wont work. either SS or 2b need to be upgraded defensively. This means getting rid of either Nomar or Walker...or moving one to the outfield (not an attractive option to me) If i had to choose between the bats of Nomar and Walker, i take nomar. Nomar will come at a discount next year, and if we retain Cedeno and Neifi we are somewhat protected against an injury to Nomar...

 

As i see it this would leave two holes in the outfield, assuming murton stays on and continues a good level of play. (perhaps an unfair assumption)

[AAApittsburgh]

he may have a lot of options position wise preventing him to be hamstrung in terms of HAVING to acquire a SS or HAVING to acquire a CF...

 

But he is handicapped in that he needs to fill specific roles... for instance: a leadoff hitter, a preferably left handed power bat, solid bullpen dudes.

 

This gives other teams more leverage... But like you said, these specific roles can come conceivably at many positions, with in house viable options to fill around them....

 

Actually, this team could thrive with Walker at leadoff. Depending on who they get in the OF, they could also live with Hairston in that role. The only true need they have is one good bat in the OF. After that they have lots of options to mix and match.

 

I never understood why Walker wasn't leading off more. He can walk, he can hit for average. He won't steal 30 bases, but the steal is a lost art anyway. But he can get on base.

 

Murton should be batting 2nd.

 

And Walkers D IS NOT THAT BAD!!! (from a few posts upthread)

 

People talk about him like he's the absolute worst defensive 2Bman the game has ever known. Get over it, people. He's adequate enough to hold it down. He's not going to be the 2nd coming of Sandberg out there. Get that straight.

 

Walker's merely adequate defense (the descriptor 'adequate' being arguable at best and downright false in some people's opinion) would be acceptable if we didn't have complete defensive liabilities at SS and 3B

 

an infield of walker nomar and ramirez didn't and wont work. either SS or 2b need to be upgraded defensively. This means getting rid of either Nomar or Walker...or moving one to the outfield (not an attractive option to me) If i had to choose between the bats of Nomar and Walker, i take nomar. Nomar will come at a discount next year, and if we retain Cedeno and Neifi we are somewhat protected against an injury to Nomar...

 

As i see it this would leave two holes in the outfield, assuming murton stays on and continues a good level of play. (perhaps an unfair assumption)

I know. We can go after Grudz and KGonz for next year's middle infield. Think of how awesome the defense would be.

[SouthSideRyan]

an infield of walker nomar and ramirez didn't and wont work.

 

It didn't? Based on what? The 3 weeks they played together?

[DougDascenzo]

an infield of walker nomar and ramirez didn't and wont work.

 

It didn't? Based on what? The 3 weeks they played together?

 

all three have been on the team all year. It hasn't worked. And yea the 3 weeks they played together, i believe they played sub .500 ball for the only stretch we have to go on.

 

I dont understand how others dont see it... the defense is horrible and has been for a good portion of the season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

an infield of walker nomar and ramirez didn't and wont work.

 

It didn't? Based on what? The 3 weeks they played together?

 

all three have been on the team all year. It hasn't worked. And yea the 3 weeks they played together, i believe they played sub .500 ball for the only stretch we have to go on.

 

I dont understand how others dont see it... the defense is horrible and has been for a good portion of the season.

 

The Cubs are 4th in the NL and 12th in MLB in Defensive Efficiency. Link

[DougDascenzo]

i believe my eyes over some stat that i know nothing about. and no, i dont want to know how its calculated or anything. My eyes and brain tell me the defense is horrible.

 

IMO there are just too many variables involved with Defense for one statistic to have any relevance. Just MO tho im sure you think otherwise

 

looking at that list only two relevant teams, Atlanta and Florida are worse than ChN by the way.

 

Teams w/ better DEf Eff:

Oakland

White Sox

Cleveland

Houston

Saint Louis

Philadelphia

Minnesota

Angels

Seattle (the only bad team)

Mets

 

What do all those teams have in common??? They all have better records than the Cubs (except Seattle and the Mets who are .001 ahead of the cubs and as i write this have the same record) Notice also the teams closest to chicago on this list are the poorest teams ON the list.

 

Good teams w/ worse Def Eff (excluding any NL west teams, though they are in contention:

 

Washington

Atlanta

Yankees and Red Sox (they obviously have some pretty good O)

Florida

 

So just 3 good teams. interesting that they are all in the NL East

 

I am now going to interpret this for you if you still dont see what im saying.

 

Most good teams are better at fielding. Only 3 decent NL teams are worse and they all are in the same division. With the unbalanced schedules, their defensive weaknesses are minimized or cancelled out when playing their divisional rivals, who all besides Philly are poor Def EFF teams.

 

So you want to look at Defensive Efficiency???

Okay i looked at it and it supports my argument that the Cubs are not good enough defensively.

Edited September 21, 2005 by DougDascenzo

[Tim]

i believe my eyes over some stat that i know nothing about. and no, i dont want to know how its calculated or anything. My eyes and brain tell me the defense is horrible.

 

IMO there are just too many variables involved with Defense for one statistic to have any relevance. Just MO tho im sure you think otherwise

Defensive efficiency is a pretty good measure for the overall defense. It is simply the rate at which balls in play are converted to outs. Apparently the Cubs are the 4th best team in the NL at doing so.

[DougDascenzo]

i believe my eyes over some stat that i know nothing about. and no, i dont want to know how its calculated or anything. My eyes and brain tell me the defense is horrible.

 

IMO there are just too many variables involved with Defense for one statistic to have any relevance. Just MO tho im sure you think otherwise

Defensive efficiency is a pretty good measure for the overall defense. It is simply the rate at which balls in play are converted to outs. Apparently the Cubs are the 4th best team in the NL at doing so.

 

okay Tim

 

Please re-read my above post and tell me what you think.

 

BTW i count 4 NL teams with better Def Eff making the cubs 5th in the NL

 

take a good look and i think you may come to agree with my assesment of the situation.

 

the only real anomaly to me is Atlanta... seems it doesn't matter what that team does, they win their division regardless.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I don't think Hendry is dumb enough to go after Lofton. His inevitable decline will happen when he's wearing a Cubs uni. Mike Cameron plz.

 

Lofton's three year splits:

278/350/424

 

That wouldn't be too bad out of the lead-off spot.

 

This season, he's had a resuggence of sorts, hitting 330/388/418.

 

I wouldn't expect him to hit anywhere near that, but the 350 OBP as a stop gap until Pie is ready would be nice. At least it would solve the revolving door at lead-off. Cameron would not.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

i believe my eyes over some stat that i know nothing about. and no, i dont want to know how its calculated or anything. My eyes and brain tell me the defense is horrible.

 

.

 

Wow...let's criticize something and discount it when we admittedly know nothing about it. :roll:

 

Since we have to trust your eyes over other metrics, can you give me your reference point. What I mean is how many games are you watching weekly that aren't the Cubs? Also what qualifies you to critique defense?

[DougDascenzo]

im also gonna mention the fact that the Cub's current Def Eff is inflated over what it will be next year if we go with a middle infield of Nomar and Walker.

 

It's inflated because Neifi has played in 143 games to date.

 

the defense WILL be worse if we go with a Nomar Walker MI. this dictates getting rid of one of them. If i can only keep one, I keep Nomar. Higher reward for probly what 3 or 4 million more? IMO Nomar cant be any worse than Walker defensively. Im sure someone could come up with a stat showing how awesome Todd WAlker is defensively.

 

to that i say stats are dumb.

[DougDascenzo]

i believe my eyes over some stat that i know nothing about. and no, i dont want to know how its calculated or anything. My eyes and brain tell me the defense is horrible.

 

.

 

Wow...let's criticize something and discount it when we admittedly know nothing about it. :roll:

 

Since we have to trust your eyes over other metrics, can you give me your reference point. What I mean is how many games are you watching weekly that aren't the Cubs? Also what qualifies you to critique defense?

 

did you not read the other 90% of my post? please go back and take a look

[Tim]

So your conclusion is that good teams have good defense and bad teams have bad defense, with a few exceptions? And if we looked at offense, might we find the same thing? If we look at pitching, might we find the same thing?

 

There's a fundamental rule when looking at stats that often gets ignored: don't confuse correlation with causation.