Clemens,Carpenter, or Willis for Cy Young? (edit)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This debate has been raging, so I guess it's time for its own thread.

 

Here are a few numbers:

 

ERA:

Clemens: 1.32

Carpenter: 2.25

 

Wins:

Clemens: 11

Carpenter: 17

 

Losses:

Clemens: 4

Carpenter: 4

 

WHIP:

Clemens: 0.93

Carpenter: 0.98

 

BAA

Clemens: .186

Carpenter: .212

 

HR Allowed

Clemens: 6

Carpenter: 12

 

K's

Clemens: 148

Carpenter: 169

 

A few other notes, Clemens has 14 starts where he has allowed one run or less, Carpenter has 12 such starts. On the other hand, Clemens has yet to have a start where he's allowed more than four runs while Carpenter has three such starts.

 

Based on the huge advantage in ERA and the simple dominance Clemens has in every start (only one with four runs and none with more than that), this one seems like a no-brainer in favor of Clemens.

Edited September 25, 2005 by vance_the_cubs_fan

[XZero771679666304]

Since I believe wins are a team stat, and Clemens is statistically dominating, I think the choice is clear. If Clemens were on the Cards, he'd have 20 wins by now.

 

I hate Roger and think he has enough awards, but he has been the best NL starter.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Since I believe wins are a team stat, and Clemens is statistically dominating, I think the choice is clear. If Clemens were on the Cards, he'd have 20 wins by now.

 

I hate Roger and think he has enough awards, but he has been the best NL starter.

 

I agree. I'm no fan of Clemens, and before a Cardinal fan accuses me of anti-Cardinal bias, I hate the Astros as much, if not more, than I hate the Cardinals. It's just when looking at the numbers, Clemens is on an entirely different plane. Carpenter has been good, no doubt. And since around mid May, he's been almost as good as Clemens. But Clemens has just been dealing. It's almost unheard of a pitcher going an entire season with no starts where he's allowed four or more runs. Wow!

 

When was the last time a starter finished the season with a lower ERA than what Clemens has? It's unheard of...especially pitching in the ballpark in which he plays! That makes it even more remarkable.

[indifferent]

Objectively, if the season ended today, Clemens would win the CY and Lee would win MVP. If Clemens does have a balky back, it could swing the momentum in Carp's favor.

 

To add to Vance's criteria for consideration, Carp has a major league leading six complete games and 16 more IP that Clemens. One COULD argue that if Clemens had the ability to go more innings in his efforts, he could have notched a few more wins for himself. And like it or not, Cy Young voters have given substantial weight to wins in the past.

[UK1679666180]

Clemens has DIPS ERA of 1.92, Carpenter 2.89.

 

Clemens has saved 41 runs over an avg. pitcher this, Carpenter has saved 31.

[wolf stansson]

Clemens. I don't know if a pitcher has had a season like this since Bob Gibson in '68. Someone with a high speed connection and more motivation than myself should do a statistical comparison between Gibby and Rocket's seasons.

 

That's who deserves it. Carp could easily get it because of the wins, the Cardinals record, and the St. Louis hype machine. In the past, St. Louis media and (management/players/Tony) hasn't been shy about publicly lobbying for their players to get awards. A good example was 3 years ago. Barret Jackman (my favorite hockey player) got the Calder trophy when Henrik Zetterberg probably was more deserving. In fact Zetterberg won the players/coach vote for R.O.Y., but Jackman won the media vote for the Calder largely due to the local lobbying.

 

Of course I'd rather Carp get it just because I have a huge hetero man crush on him.

[PujolsPower]

Clemens ERA is amazing. The one negative is that he hasn't been able to go as deep into games, which has contributed to his win total being lower than expected. Clemens hasn't completed a game this year and has gone 8 innings three times. Carpenter has pitched 9 innings 7 different times (one time against Zambrano was not a complete game). He has gone 8 innings or more on 6 other occasions. Head to head, Carpenter pitched a complete game shutout (which I was lucky enough to attend).

 

In MLB this year, there have been eight games in which the pitcher compiled a gamescore of 90 or better. Carpenter has pitched three of those eight games, and has the highest gamescore of 94. Clemens' high gamescore is 87.

 

The Cy Young Predictor developped by Bill James and Rob Neyer gives Carpenter a large lead in the race for the NL Cy Young.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

 

I could see either pitcher winning the Cy Young this year, but I think the last month and a half could still decide it.

 

Last year's voting seemed to reward Clemens for his number of wins.

 

2004 Record and ERA

Jake Peavy 15-8 2.27

R Johnson 16-14 2.60

Ben Sheets 12-14 2.70

Carlos Zambrano 16-8 2.75

Clemens 18-4 2.98

Oliver Perez 12-10 2.98

Carl Pavano 18-8 3.00

Roy Oswalt 20-10 3.49

 

Cy Young Voting

1. Clemens

2. Johnson

3. Oswalt

4. Schmidt

5. Zambrano

6. Pavano

7. Gagne

8. Lidge

8. Sheets

[jaydee]

Clemens. I don't know if a pitcher has had a season like this since Bob Gibson in '68. Someone with a high speed connection and more motivation than myself should do a statistical comparison between Gibby and Rocket's seasons.

 

That's who deserves it. Carp could easily get it because of the wins, the Cardinals record, and the St. Louis hype machine. In the past, St. Louis media and (management/players/Tony) hasn't been shy about publicly lobbying for their players to get awards. A good example was 3 years ago. Barret Jackman (my favorite hockey player) got the Calder trophy when Henrik Zetterberg probably was more deserving. In fact Zetterberg won the players/coach vote for R.O.Y., but Jackman won the media vote for the Calder largely due to the local lobbying.

 

Of course I'd rather Carp get it just because I have a huge hetero man crush on him.

 

So thats why Bertuzzi laid Jackman out on that absolutely brutal hit! He was doing it for Zetterberg. kidding kidding

 

anyways, no doubt Clemens is better this year than Carpenter. Unfortunately, the media is not exactly unbiased, and a lot of voters will probably look at W-L first and other stats second. As much as Clemens deserves it, Carpenter will probaby undeservingly get the award.

[TB_11]

Normally I'd say Clemens, but given that he didn't deserve his last two Cy Youngs and received them them based on his number of wins, he should be get a taste of his own medicine and the award should go to Carpenter.

 

/spite

[rawaction]

If Houston was gonna continue to play sub .500 baseball, then Carpenter would have won it. But Houston will likely win the WC, thus Clemens will get it.

[ManEatingTarp]

My heart say Carp.

 

My head says Clemens.

 

until he gets busted for roids in a couple weeks ;)

[fallingpieces]

Unfortunately I think in the end the Win total is going to play a factor in it, so at this point I'm going to say it goes to Carpenter. I'm actually for Carpenter winning it at this point because I'm sick of the media hyping Clemens to no end.

[wolf stansson]

Yeah the media is giving Clemens a lot of attention, but every bit is deserved. This is one of the best pitching seasons ever.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If Clemens finishes with his 1.32 ERA, that will be the lowest season ERA for a starter since Mordecai Brown in 1910. Does anyone fathom that?

 

Even if his ERA rises 23 points, it will still be the lowest since Greg Maddux's 1.56 in 1994.

 

What Clemens is doing is unheard of during the modern era. Wins or no wins, if Clemens isn't given the CY Young award if he finishes with a sub 1.50 ERA, something is seriously wrong.

[gus_dog]

Clemens will win. IMO. Carpenter should start seeing how he looks in Yankee pinstripes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Clemens will win. IMO. Carpenter should start seeing how he looks in Yankee pinstripes.

 

Why would the Cards trade him? He's signed through 2007 with an option for 2008.

[reggiemiller rules]

If Clemens finishes with his 1.32 ERA, that will be the lowest season ERA for a starter since Mordecai Brown in 1910. Does anyone fathom that?

 

Even if his ERA rises 23 points, it will still be the lowest since Greg Maddux's 1.56 in 1994.

 

What Clemens is doing is unheard of during the modern era. Wins or no wins, if Clemens isn't given the CY Young award if he finishes with a sub 1.50 ERA, something is seriously wrong.

 

Gibson finished with an ERA of 1.12 so it will be the lowest since then not 1910.

[wolf stansson]

Gibson finished with an ERA of 1.12 so it will be the lowest since then not 1910.

That being the modern era record set in 1968. As a direct result of that season (pitchers absolutely dominated) they lowered the mound 6 inches.

So thats why Bertuzzi laid Jackman out on that absolutely brutal hit!

No I think he laid that hit mainly because he loves to hurt people with an unquenchable blood lust that will one day land him in jail where he belongs after that Steve Moore hit. Or maybe I'm just letting my blinding hate for Bertuzzi blind me. But I doubt it.

[indifferent]

No I think he laid that hit mainly because he loves to hurt people with an unquenchable blood lust that will one day land him in jail where he belongs after that Steve Moore hit. Or maybe I'm just letting my blinding hate for Bertuzzi blind me. But I doubt it.

 

Adam Moore, but yeah!

[wolf stansson]

Adam Moore, but yeah!

Adam Moore. My bad. Thanks.

[indifferent]

My bad, wolf. Reports say Steve and I could've sworn it was Adam. My mistake.

[wolf stansson]

WINNAR!

 

JK, it doesn't matter. The fact remains that Bertuzzi is an evil man. Anybody else notice that he looks exactly like Kragan from Highlander? There can be only one Bertuzzi!

[gus_dog]

Clemens will win. IMO. Carpenter should start seeing how he looks in Yankee pinstripes.

 

Why would the Cards trade him? He's signed through 2007 with an option for 2008.

 

I was making a (very small) joke. :wink:

[UK1679666180]

You can make a case for Clemens having the best season in modern history, which includes the 1.12 in '68 by Gibson.

 

Runs Saved above avg. per 9..

Clemens 2.25

Gibson 1.89

 

Dips ERA

Clemens 1.92

Gibson 2.47

 

I'm not going to say Clemens in '05 was better, b/c I didn't see Gibson in '68. I doubt many in here can dispute it under that same premise, though.

 

Imagine what Clemens could do with a higher mound, bigger parks, and a softer baseball..

[K-Town]

You can make a case for Clemens having the best season in modern history, which includes the 1.12 in '68 by Gibson.

 

Runs Saved above avg. per 9..

Clemens 2.25

Gibson 1.89

 

Dips ERA

Clemens 1.92

Gibson 2.47

 

I'm not going to say Clemens in '05 was better, b/c I didn't see Gibson in '68. I doubt many in here can dispute it under that same premise, though.

 

Imagine what Clemens could do with a higher mound, bigger parks, and a softer baseball..

 

I won't dispute it under that premise, but I will dispute it.

 

Gibson started 34 games in 1968, and completed 28 of them (including 13 shutouts). Clemens has yet to finish a game this year. If Clemens would stick around long enough in games this year, he MIGHT be able to win a few more (his last start was a picture-perfect example), but apparently he's more concerned about keeping his ERA in check, rather than helping his team win games. What Clemens is doing doesn't compare to what Gibson did in 1968, in my opinion

 

Clemens has been spectacular. But the fact that he's not staying in games long enough to get himself into trouble (or to get himself a couple of extra wins) should work against him, in my opinion. Carpenter "toughs it out", every chance he gets, and the extra work load, while possibly costing him a few points on his ERA, has probably kept his bullpen fresh enough to make up for it. Clemens's ERA has been "coddled" a bit by getting him out of games early, in my opinion.

 

Has a starting pitcher ever won a Cy Young Award, without completing a single game? I don't have time to look it up, but I seriously doubt it. Considering that Cy Young himself started 906 games, and finished 815 of them tells me that this should be given SOME consideration (yes, I know it's a competely different era).

 

If Carpenter can win 22 or 24 games, while losing only 4 or 5, and finish with an ERA around 2, and be among the top 3 in strikeouts, it would sure seem like a shame if he didn't win the Cy Young Award. It's amazing that Carpenter is, arguably, having a better season than any NL starting pitcher has had in 6 or 8 years, and all we hear about is his "run support".

 

All of that said, Clemens is having an unbelievable year, also.