Formula For the Unthinkable

[USSoccer]

That isn't pie in the sky optimism.

 

I respectfully disagree.

 

Are you going to refute anything I say or are you just disagreeing?

[MembersOnlyJacket]

The Cubs are not just chasing the Astros; they are chasing five clubs. The baseball season goes so fast, that it's human nature to keep the blind faith in hopes that the season can continue just a little bit longer --- and have meaning. The Cubs are not going to win the Wild Card, but they sure could spoil it and allow one of the clubs in the East to grab it!

[neely crenshaw]

2 really sad points= 1. if we the rest of games we will win 102. that's .620 baseball, st louis is playing .640...win 42 straight and we still wouldn't catch them.

look at st louis lineup, then atlanta. then houston(except for pitching) and san diego....if we had done anything at all in the offaeason we would be a shoe in for the nl.

these lineups are brutal! unfortunately, hendry has left us just as bad and now we are in a huge hole...probably too big. it's just another wasted year by the front office.

st louis has a great lineup but you remove walker,sanders,molina and rolen and they are not scary. the braves are basically playing their triple a team and running away with it.

[Jimy is a misspell]

That isn't pie in the sky optimism.

 

I respectfully disagree.

 

Are you going to refute anything I say or are you just disagreeing?

 

What do you want me to say? I like you guys over here, and have been posting here for a long time. I don't see any reason to kick someone when they're down, you guys are struggling and that's painful enough. I just think it's a little far fetched to start talking post season when you've won 1 game after losing 8 straight.

[biittner77]

That isn't pie in the sky optimism.

 

I respectfully disagree.

 

Are you going to refute anything I say or are you just disagreeing?

 

What do you want me to say? I like you guys over here, and have been posting here for a long time. I don't see any reason to kick someone when they're down, you guys are struggling and that's painful enough. I just think it's a little far fetched to start talking post season when you've won 1 game after losing 8 straight.

 

If you look at the original post there are 8 things listed that all have to happen for the Cubs to have a chance. It's a pretty small chance but it's still a chance. Pie in the sky optimism would be to say the Cubs are in the driver's seat or even to say "I like our chances". It's not very likely and I don't see where anyone is saying they are confident of a playoff birth.

 

At the same time, you of all people should know that strange things happen in baseball. Your team was given up for dead last season and came back to win the WC. Heck, your team was given up for dead this season and leads the WC.

 

Then again, you came here more or less stating that you didn't believe your team could do it last year, saying something to the effect of "Thanks for getting our hopes up" after the ill fated (for Cubs' fans) series. As virtually the only Astros fan that posts here your thoughts on that particular subject stand out. At the time I would have agreed with you that the Astros didn't have much of a chance.

 

I don't believe the combination of things that need to happen will. I certainly hope that we're both wrong again.

[Bull]

That isn't pie in the sky optimism.

 

I respectfully disagree.

 

Are you going to refute anything I say or are you just disagreeing?

 

What do you want me to say? I like you guys over here, and have been posting here for a long time. I don't see any reason to kick someone when they're down, you guys are struggling and that's painful enough. I just think it's a little far fetched to start talking post season when you've won 1 game after losing 8 straight.

 

If you look at the original post there are 8 things listed that all have to happen for the Cubs to have a chance. It's a pretty small chance but it's still a chance. Pie in the sky optimism would be to say the Cubs are in the driver's seat or even to say "I like our chances". It's not very likely and I don't see where anyone is saying they are confident of a playoff birth.

 

At the same time, you of all people should know that strange things happen in baseball. Your team was given up for dead last season and came back to win the WC. Heck, your team was given up for dead this season and leads the WC.

 

Then again, you came here more or less stating that you didn't believe your team could do it last year, saying something to the effect of "Thanks for getting our hopes up" after the ill fated (for Cubs' fans) series. As virtually the only Astros fan that posts here your thoughts on that particular subject stand out. At the time I would have agreed with you that the Astros didn't have much of a chance.

 

I don't believe the combination of things that need to happen will. I certainly hope that we're both wrong again.

 

So what you're saying is that those 8 things are a formula not for the definite, or even for the likely, but for the unthinkable. I get it now!

 

...*glances at thread title*

 

:wink: [/b]

[USSoccer]

That isn't pie in the sky optimism.

 

I respectfully disagree.

 

Are you going to refute anything I say or are you just disagreeing?

 

What do you want me to say? I like you guys over here, and have been posting here for a long time. I don't see any reason to kick someone when they're down, you guys are struggling and that's painful enough. I just think it's a little far fetched to start talking post season when you've won 1 game after losing 8 straight.

 

I'm not talking postseason. The very first qualifier I wrote was that you can't take the rest of the post seriously, and can't think of yourself as a contender until you're above .500.

 

Second of all, I don't think that it's unrealistic to think, if things go our way just a bit, that we could be within 4 games of Houston going into the final series. That's making up 3.5 games. If the Cubs get hot again (as they've done each time they went on an extended losing streak), they could be within 4 by next Friday, since we have 3 with you guys next week.

 

So it's not as if I'm saying that the Cubs are a lock, or that they can catch St Louis, or even that they have a better than 25% chance at the WC. What I am saying is that, given the preconditions i've set, it's not impossible that we could be within 4 going into Houston.

[USSoccer]

*bump*

 

So far, Nomar and Corey have been solid, and the Cubs have had good starting pitching, masking their middle relief. Lawton has picked it up a little bit, and the Cubs have gotten some luck, with the Macias PH 2 run single tonight. That's 4 keys successfully executed.

 

More importantly, we gained 1 game on Houston, putting us 6.5 back with 7 weeks to go. We need to gain at least 1 game per week, and we cannot drop any series the rest of the way.

 

3/4 from St Louis is a good start. Now, we have Houston. 2/3 is the minimum. The pitching matchups break our way, as we miss Clemens and get Oswalt matching up with Z. Game 1 is the critical game. We have to have Rusch step up and give us 6-7 strong innings.

[CubfaninCA]

Jmo & maybe a little out there, but Kerry Wood = key.

 

Just seems like the team goes on a losing streak every time he goes on the DL. He's essentially the heart of the team. If he keeps dominating teams every other game out of the pen, the Cubs will be difficult to beat down the stretch. With the off days coming up, Baker can skip either Williams and Rusch a few times and can use Wood on the days Maddux and Williams or Rusch pitch. Just need to have Prior shut down teams like Z does. The offense may just need to score more than 3 runs per game.

[da bears]

*bump*

 

So far, Nomar and Corey have been solid, and the Cubs have had good starting pitching, masking their middle relief. Lawton has picked it up a little bit, and the Cubs have gotten some luck, with the Macias PH 2 run single tonight. That's 4 keys successfully executed.

 

More importantly, we gained 1 game on Houston, putting us 6.5 back with 7 weeks to go. We need to gain at least 1 game per week, and we cannot drop any series the rest of the way.

 

3/4 from St Louis is a good start. Now, we have Houston. 2/3 is the minimum. The pitching matchups break our way, as we miss Clemens and get Oswalt matching up with Z. Game 1 is the critical game. We have to have Rusch step up and give us 6-7 strong innings.

 

I personally am not going to get excited unless they sweep houston, and thats going to be tough. I will continue to watch the games. but its gonna take an absolutely monster month and a half, and unless they go on a stretch unprecedented to the Chicago Cubs franchise, Im not going to get my hopes up.

[biittner77]

*bump*

 

 

3/4 from St Louis is a good start. Now, we have Houston. 2/3 is the minimum. The pitching matchups break our way, as we miss Clemens and get Oswalt matching up with Z. Game 1 is the critical game. We have to have Rusch step up and give us 6-7 strong innings.

 

The problem is that 3/4 isn't good enough. The Cubs need to play .800 ball in order to win the 93-95 games it's going to take to win the WC.

 

I'm not sure if any team has ever maintained that level of play for that long of a stretch.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I personally am not going to get excited unless they sweep houston, and thats going to be tough. I will continue to watch the games. but its gonna take an absolutely monster month and a half, and unless they go on a stretch unprecedented to the Chicago Cubs franchise, Im not going to get my hopes up.

 

The franchise we know as The Chicago Cubs is currently in it's 130th season of competition in the National League. To casually throw around phrases like "unprecedented to the ..... franchise" suggests that you have done little or no research on this team. You may want to start with 1935.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

*bump*

 

 

3/4 from St Louis is a good start. Now, we have Houston. 2/3 is the minimum. The pitching matchups break our way, as we miss Clemens and get Oswalt matching up with Z. Game 1 is the critical game. We have to have Rusch step up and give us 6-7 strong innings.

 

The problem is that 3/4 isn't good enough. The Cubs need to play .800 ball in order to win the 93-95 games it's going to take to win the WC.

 

I'm not sure if any team has ever maintained that level of play for that long of a stretch.

 

In order for the Wild Card leading Astros to win 93 games, they have to play .667 ball from here on out, with 10 of those games against the Cubs. If the Cubs make a run, they won't need to win 93-95 games to win the WC.

[sweetpeteman]

Big difference between the '04 Astros and '05 Cubs:

 

The Astros started winning when they FIRED THEIR MANAGER!

 

this is funny because the Astros didnt start winning till mid-August and fired their manager in mid-July... a nice month difference...

[cubbieinexile]

The Cubs are 6.5 games back and have 5 teams ahead of them. Surpassing Houston is not the only obstacle to the Wild Card. The Cubs most definitely will need to win at least 90 games to even have a serious shot at the wild card. To achieve 90 wins they need to play .750 ball here on out for 44 games. Even if we lock everybody else into their current winning % the Cubs would need to win 88 games to win the Wild CArd which would mean the Cubs would need to win 31 games and have a .705 winning %. No matter how you slice it the Cubs are a long shot. Now if the Cubs had been in second place for the Wild Card and 6.5 games back with 10 games against the Wild Card leader in 44 games I would say that a decent shot, not a good or great shot but a good one. Unfortunately the Cubs are not in second place for the wild card.

[cubbieinexile]

*bump*

 

 

3/4 from St Louis is a good start. Now, we have Houston. 2/3 is the minimum. The pitching matchups break our way, as we miss Clemens and get Oswalt matching up with Z. Game 1 is the critical game. We have to have Rusch step up and give us 6-7 strong innings.

 

The problem is that 3/4 isn't good enough. The Cubs need to play .800 ball in order to win the 93-95 games it's going to take to win the WC.

 

I'm not sure if any team has ever maintained that level of play for that long of a stretch.

 

The 1906 Cubs went 50-8 to end the season, a .862 winning %.

 

On July 24th the Cubs were 61-28 at the end of the season they had 36 losses and had another 55 wins.

[Satch80]

"The problem is that 3/4 isn't good enough. The Cubs need to play .800 ball in order to win the 93-95 games it's going to take to win the WC. "

 

I don't think it will take that much. Houston, the leader is playing at an 88 win pace right now. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and have been shut out 3 times. This team has had trouble scoring all season and when Berkman and Ensberg aren't hitting they don't score. Point is, even with their pitching this team is also flawed and no lock to win the WC.

And we have 10 games remaining with them to do some damage plus they

still have a series with WC contenders Fla and Phil.

 

WC contender Phil, for exp, has 10 games left with Wash, 6 with the Mets and 6 with Fla. Basically the NL East WC contenders get to cannibalize themself, and we also have one more series against Fla to take them down.

 

Bottom line, these are all flawed teams, teams that run hot and cold just like us. There's no reason to expect any of them to play lights out for the final 6 weeks.

 

Because of the set-up where the WC contenders are playing each other in the east and 10 games left with Houston, we have an excellent chance to be there at the end if we play winning baseball. I would not be surprised if 88-89 took the WC unless we absolutely collapse against Houston or one of the NL east teams takes everyone down.

 

So go Cubs! Movin' on up...

[Larry Horse]

I personally am not going to get excited unless they sweep houston, and thats going to be tough. I will continue to watch the games. but its gonna take an absolutely monster month and a half, and unless they go on a stretch unprecedented to the Chicago Cubs franchise, Im not going to get my hopes up.

 

The franchise we know as The Chicago Cubs is currently in it's 130th season of competition in the National League. To casually throw around phrases like "unprecedented to the ..... franchise" suggests that you have done little or no research on this team. You may want to start with 1935.

 

Start with 1935? For a little more relevant argument, how about going back 20 years and pull out the years when the monster last month carried the Cubs into the playoffs.......

[biittner77]

"I don't think it will take that much. Houston, the leader is playing at an 88 win pace right now. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and have been shut out 3 times. This team has had trouble scoring all season and when Berkman and Ensberg aren't hitting they don't score. Point is, even with their pitching this team is also flawed and no lock to win the WC.

And we have 10 games remaining with them to do some damage plus they

still have a series with WC contenders Fla and Phil.

 

WC contender Phil, for exp, has 10 games left with Wash, 6 with the Mets and 6 with Fla. Basically the NL East WC contenders get to cannibalize themself, and we also have one more series against Fla to take them down.

 

Bottom line, these are all flawed teams, teams that run hot and cold just like us. There's no reason to expect any of them to play lights out for the final 6 weeks.

 

Because of the set-up where the WC contenders are playing each other in the east and 10 games left with Houston, we have an excellent chance to be there at the end if we play winning baseball. I would not be surprised if 88-89 took the WC unless we absolutely collapse against Houston or one of the NL east teams takes everyone down.

 

So go Cubs! Movin' on up...

 

Historically, the WC team has had to win at least 93 games. I haven't looked it up but I'm not sure any team has won the WC with less than 90.

 

While the East teams may beat each other up there's also a chance that one will emerge and will build a lead to the point where the Cubs can't catch them.

 

The Cubs have 10 games remaining against Houston. To make up the ground on them they have to win 8 of those games.

 

The last problem is that when the contenders play each other the Cubs can gain ground on one but will be treading water against the other. Every game that burns off the schedule hurts the Cubs and helps the teams in front of them.

[halplm]

*bump*

 

 

3/4 from St Louis is a good start. Now, we have Houston. 2/3 is the minimum. The pitching matchups break our way, as we miss Clemens and get Oswalt matching up with Z. Game 1 is the critical game. We have to have Rusch step up and give us 6-7 strong innings.

 

The problem is that 3/4 isn't good enough. The Cubs need to play .800 ball in order to win the 93-95 games it's going to take to win the WC.

 

I'm not sure if any team has ever maintained that level of play for that long of a stretch.

 

The 1906 Cubs went 50-8 to end the season, a .862 winning %.

 

On July 24th the Cubs were 61-28 at the end of the season they had 36 losses and had another 55 wins.

 

that's an absurd comparison. You can make a legitimate case that the 1906 Cubs were the greatest baseball team in history (taking into account eras and all that stuff). Of course they would have been able to go on such a streak.

 

the "unprecidented" part of what would be necessary this year, is a team playing less than .500 ball, suddenly turning it on and winning 33 of 44. It's not going to happen.

 

Don't get me wrong... I love taking 3 of 4 from the Cards, and I was really glad to see Prior get the win last night, but it's just prolonging the inevitable.

 

Dusty wants to be fired, just like he wanted to be fired in San Fran. It's only a matter of time... hopefully not another full year...

[Houston_Cub_Fan]

Deep breath. Hold it for five seconds. Exhale.

 

Whew! That's better. I almost started to believe again. Some pretty good arguments for optimism. But pretty good just aint gonna cut it. Even if we beat up on the Stros, it will just move an NL East team into their spot. We're playing for pride now, and the small satisfaction of a winning season.

 

If by some freak of nature we are three (or fewer) games out at the beginning of Sept, I may reconsider this stance. But let's get to .500 first and go from there.

[Scott G. F.]

Bottm line:

wild card is a long shot and this thread is titled correctly.

 

I just would like to see the Cubs play the game correctly. Hit guys over, play smart defense (Am Ram Ugh! Don't think!). The starting pitching has been giving some quality starts and the middle relief seems to be solidfiying with Wood coming in. The Top of the batting order is getting on and we're getting the game breaking hits we were lacking during the losing streaks.

Just keep playing the game the correct way and good things will happen.

 

Don't get to excited, not now there is to much in the way of the wild card right now and we need teams in the way to fall by the way side.

[SouthSideRyan]

*bump*

 

 

3/4 from St Louis is a good start. Now, we have Houston. 2/3 is the minimum. The pitching matchups break our way, as we miss Clemens and get Oswalt matching up with Z. Game 1 is the critical game. We have to have Rusch step up and give us 6-7 strong innings.

 

The problem is that 3/4 isn't good enough. The Cubs need to play .800 ball in order to win the 93-95 games it's going to take to win the WC.

 

I'm not sure if any team has ever maintained that level of play for that long of a stretch.

 

The 1906 Cubs went 50-8 to end the season, a .862 winning %.

 

On July 24th the Cubs were 61-28 at the end of the season they had 36 losses and had another 55 wins.

 

that's an absurd comparison. You can make a legitimate case that the 1906 Cubs were the greatest baseball team in history (taking into account eras and all that stuff). Of course they would have been able to go on such a streak.

 

the "unprecidented" part of what would be necessary this year, is a team playing less than .500 ball, suddenly turning it on and winning 33 of 44. It's not going to happen.

 

 

How bout 34 out of 44? Is that unprecedented? Cause it's what the Astros did last year. Likely? Not at all, but certainly not unprecedented.

[cubbieinexile]

 

that's an absurd comparison. You can make a legitimate case that the 1906 Cubs were the greatest baseball team in history (taking into account eras and all that stuff). Of course they would have been able to go on such a streak.

 

the "unprecidented" part of what would be necessary this year, is a team playing less than .500 ball, suddenly turning it on and winning 33 of 44. It's not going to happen.

 

 

It wasn't a comparison. A question was asked about whether any team has kept up that pace for that long. I pointed out a team that did it. Nor is it the only one.

[BigbadB]

In the last 3 years, Oakland has put together spurts of 37-8 at one point during their season. We are a better team than Oakland.

 

Can it be done? Yes. Will it be done? Doubtful with Dusty filling out the line up card.