Jayson Stark Believes There Will Be A Big August Deal

[HoopsCubs]

I listened to him this morning on Mike and Mike's radio show on ESPN (around 7:30 AM CDT).

 

While the "bulk" of the timeslot was spent discussing Palmeiro, he was asked in the last few minutes about deals in August and players clearing waivers, and he stated his opinion that as more teams fall out, we could see 1 or 2 big trades.

 

The names he rattled off (in terms of players he believe will be clearing waivers): Mike Sweeney, Ken Griffey, Manny Ramirez, Edgardo Alfonzo.

 

He didn't say that one of those guys would be dealt, but implied, they'd be the right type of player to be moved, i.e., multi-year contract with big money playing for teams not in it (Manny being the exception).

 

I guess we'll see what transpires. I have a hunch that the Angels, Yankees and Dodgers are going to try and do something.

 

 

Hoops

[TripJ]

What about the Cubs, Hoops, do you think Hendry will be content to sit tight with what they've got, or do you think there could be a waiver-wire move for another impact player if they're still close?

[HoopsCubs]

What about the Cubs, Hoops, do you think Hendry will be content to sit tight with what they've got, or do you think there could be a waiver-wire move for another impact player if they're still close?

 

Hard to say. One of my sources told me that Hendry is going to look at the next 16 games (3 @PHL, 3 @NYM, 3 CIN, 4 STL, 3 @HOU) and then take stock on August 18 - off day.

[SCCubbieFAN]

What about the Cubs, Hoops, do you think Hendry will be content to sit tight with what they've got, or do you think there could be a waiver-wire move for another impact player if they're still close?

 

The problem the Cubs face with trying to make a waiver deal is that it is unlikely any of the players on their 40 man roster will clear waivers so they can be traded. So the Cubs will most likely have to trade from those not on the 40 man roster.

[TheDude]

The trouble is, IMO, July 31 no longer serves as a reasonable trade deadline. Too many teams are in the hunt and just don't know whether to commit at the deadline or not.

 

Then, the few sellers out there decide they have a major advantage (being one of 4 sellers), and start placing an absurd seller's market premium on their trade talent.

 

I think MLB should look at moving the trade deadline back to August 15, and shorten the waiver time to two weeks. That extra two weeks will weed out more buyers and help create an actual even-keeled market.

[LoneStarCubFan]

Actually, the trade deadline should be August 31.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Actually, the trade deadline should be August 31.

 

Problem is, then you only have the acquisitions for a month + postseason if you make it. I think the end of July is the right balance of length into the season to determine who is competitive, and time left in the season for acquisitions to have a substantial impact.

[UBlink]

Actually, maybe it should be moved the other direction so that we don't have the potential for last minute re-shaping of teams just prior to the playoff hunt. I know the July tradig season created lots of attention in the Transactions forum, but a lot of that attention came away from the actual games. Why should a 2 month rental of Carlos Beltran make the difference in a playoff race? The continuity of players on teams has gotten bad enough, we don't need instituitional changes to further encourage it.

[Garwilly]

Actually, the trade deadline should be August 31.

 

Problem is, then you only have the acquisitions for a month + postseason if you make it. I think the end of July is the right balance of length into the season to determine who is competitive, and time left in the season for acquisitions to have a substantial impact.

 

 

While I am niether advocating moving the dealing, it has been done before with against opposition with the same reasoning.

[Wheelimus]

Almost wish they'd just get rid of the deadline. There's no drama anymore with the deadline because of the wildcard, so just get rid of it. That way there's always a little drama, because you never know what team is going to really load up for the playoffs at the last minute.

[Garwilly]

Almost wish they'd just get rid of the deadline. There's no drama anymore with the deadline because of the wildcard, so just get rid of it. That way there's always a little drama, because you never know what team is going to really load up for the playoffs at the last minute.

 

No drama? 2004 Nomar trade?

[Beer Kaese]

The trouble is, IMO, July 31 no longer serves as a reasonable trade deadline. Too many teams are in the hunt and just don't know whether to commit at the deadline or not.

 

Then, the few sellers out there decide they have a major advantage (being one of 4 sellers), and start placing an absurd seller's market premium on their trade talent.

 

I think MLB should look at moving the trade deadline back to August 15, and shorten the waiver time to two weeks. That extra two weeks will weed out more buyers and help create an actual even-keeled market.

 

The later the trade deadline is the more it favors big market teams. I like the way it is. Small market teams benefit when marque players do not change hands.

[SCCubbieFAN]

Almost wish they'd just get rid of the deadline. There's no drama anymore with the deadline because of the wildcard, so just get rid of it. That way there's always a little drama, because you never know what team is going to really load up for the playoffs at the last minute.

 

But that can lead to deals in which teams "borrow" players just for the playoffs. In other words acquiring a player late in the season and then trading that player back to the same team after the season is over.

[CubbieSouthpaw]

Almost wish they'd just get rid of the deadline. There's no drama anymore with the deadline because of the wildcard, so just get rid of it. That way there's always a little drama, because you never know what team is going to really load up for the playoffs at the last minute.

 

But that can lead to deals in which teams "borrow" players just for the playoffs. In other words acquiring a player late in the season and then trading that player back to the same team after the season is over.

 

Haven't saw that as much as the player traded returns to his previous team and signs again as a FA.

[WindyCity]

What about the Cubs, Hoops, do you think Hendry will be content to sit tight with what they've got, or do you think there could be a waiver-wire move for another impact player if they're still close?

 

The problem the Cubs face with trying to make a waiver deal is that it is unlikely any of the players on their 40 man roster will clear waivers so they can be traded. So the Cubs will most likely have to trade from those not on the 40 man roster.

 

The Cubs have a ton of guys that will be eligible for the rule 5 draft this off-season and not enough slots for all of them obviously. IMO that gives Hendry plenty of value that he can send to another team w/o worrying about getting them through waivers (so we don't necessarily need to have any current 40-man Cubs clear waivers to be able to complete an August waiver deal). If there's a player on another team that clears waivers and would be a good addition to this year's Cubs and possibly the future, Hendry will get a deal done.

[craig]

Hard to say. One of my sources told me that Hendry is going to look at the next 16 games (3 @PHL, 3 @NYM, 3 CIN, 4 STL, 3 @HOU) and then take stock on August 18 - off day.

 

MacLynchHendry have often done this, and made August deals. IIRC, they've traded Mulholland, Fassero, Gordon, Muehler, Tyler Houston, Frank Castillo in September deals.

 

Most of these have been motivated by salary dump (even if it's only a few hundred thousand dollars...), or to clear 40-man roster space, or to clear out a bad attitude, or simply to give a veteran a shot to get into the playoffs.

 

Obviously it requires that a guy pass waivers and that some team be interested in picking him up. When St. Louis picked up Fassero in 2002, I was surprised. Remlinger could possibly be a comparable.

[NorthsideAvenger]

The trouble is, IMO, July 31 no longer serves as a reasonable trade deadline. Too many teams are in the hunt and just don't know whether to commit at the deadline or not.

 

Then, the few sellers out there decide they have a major advantage (being one of 4 sellers), and start placing an absurd seller's market premium on their trade talent.

 

I think MLB should look at moving the trade deadline back to August 15, and shorten the waiver time to two weeks. That extra two weeks will weed out more buyers and help create an actual even-keeled market.

 

The OTHER problem I see---at least this yr---is that you have a few pseudo contending teams, still thinking they are in contention. The NL West is a pseudo division this yr, cause they got NO team that deserves to be in the playoffs, but somebody has to go. So there is 4 pseudo contenders...the Cubs could be consider pseudo contending....Mets, Phils,Baltimore,Toronto...etc...weren't ready to convince their fan base they weren't contenders.

 

But I do agree the trade deadline should be adjusted. But, imo, baseball should start their season about 1/2 weeks before April hits, and the deadline should be move to around the 17th of August, thus giving teams an additional 5 week---couple the moving back the deadline with starting earlier---to figure out if they are contending or not.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Jayson Stark is a fanboy buffoon. His "sources" are pretty much a Magic 8-ball and a large bottle of glue. Meh.

[Roast]

I agree with stark here. I have mentioned it in two or three threads already. I really think there will be some fairly large deals, and I personally dont think the cubs are 100% done yet. There are far too many teams still in the race, hense the lack of trades at the deadline. I guess now is the time when we wait and see.

[Jazz]

Adam Dunn, and Austin Kearns should b on that list as well. If the reds cant move these guys by the waiver deadline, the reds management should be hit with rotten tomatoes

[Roast]

Adam Dunn, and Austin Kearns should be on that list as well. If the reds cant move these guys by the waiver deadline, the reds management should be hit with rotten tomatoes

 

There is no way on gods green earth that Dunn clears waivers. And, they had a golden opprtunity to trade one/both of them at the deadline, their GM is jsut an idiot.

[UBlink]

Adam Dunn, and Austin Kearns should be on that list as well. If the reds cant move these guys by the waiver deadline, the reds management should be hit with rotten tomatoes

 

There is no way on gods green earth that Dunn clears waivers. And, they had a golden opprtunity to trade one/both of them at the deadline, their GM is jsut an idiot.

 

Now Griffey would be a different matter. :pr:

[rawaction]

I agree with Stark. I'm really surprised that Griffey, Sweeney and Alfonzo are still on their same teams after they've brought interest. All 3 will end up getting traded, and probably for a lot less than they've would have brought a week ago.

[UBlink]

I agree with Stark. I'm really surprised that Griffey, Sweeney and Alfonzo are still on their same teams after they've brought interest. All 3 will end up getting traded, and probably for a lot less than they've would have brought a week ago.

 

Compared to a week ago, the demand will continue to decrease as fewer teams remain contenders. However, the supply of tradeable players was dramatically reduced as now only players who can clear waivers are available. So I think Griffey, Sweeney, et al are actually worth more now that they don't have to compete with Dunn, Huff, etc.

[rawaction]

I agree with Stark. I'm really surprised that Griffey, Sweeney and Alfonzo are still on their same teams after they've brought interest. All 3 will end up getting traded, and probably for a lot less than they've would have brought a week ago.

 

Compared to a week ago, the demand will continue to decrease as fewer teams remain contenders. However, the supply of tradeable players was dramatically reduced as now only players who can clear waivers are available. So I think Griffey, Sweeney, et al are actually worth more now that they don't have to compete with Dunn, Huff, etc.

 

Fewer players available, but also fewer teams. I guess it could go either way. But you also have to factor in the time lost. The players should be cheaper simply because instead of 2 months of that player, you have 1 1/2 months.