Beer Kaese

I don't think that's true at all. Major changes off the top of my head Out or significantly lost talent: Soto, Castro, Garza, Dempster, Marshall In or significantly gained talent: Jackson, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Castillo, Samardzija Pretty close to a wash, imo. Could make a case either way. Ramirez? Soriano? Wells? This is the roster that finished 2011. You can't tell me in any universe that this current team is better than that one. Cheaper? Yes. Younger? Yes. Better? Hell no. . It's been a long 2 years. Four years. The Cubs should have been aggressive sellers beginning in June 2010. Instead, Hendry traded for Garza and signed Pena (deferred half his salary) and five games into the 2011 season the Cubs were toast.

That appears to be the most comprehensive list I've seen on any subject. Well done. The problem is that no one, not even AZPhil, does a list of rule 5 eligible 3 years out. The Cubs have added both top end and depth to the system in the last two years. Both AA and A+ were successful last year. That generally doesn't happen if you don't have a mix of high end and mid range talent with depth. Those guys are moving to AAA and AA next year. If you combine top end and mid range talent with cash available to spend you can see a lot of those names fly off the board in a hurry. Bard? There's a reason that no one does Rule 5 lists 3 years out, and it's not an oversight. Look at the rosters of those MiLB levels you're talking about, and find the players who will be Rule 5 eligible in the coming seasons. It's not a higher caliber than the players the team has exposed in the past, or that every team is forced to expose each year. Players are taken in rule 5 every year. There are rules that govern who is eligible. Is it not service time and players unprotected on the 40 man?

We've discussed the 40 man in quite a few threads. And unless everyone here is missing evaluations on quite a few players, we're no where near having a true crunch. Are we in danger every year of having the Matt Loosen 's of the world plucked from us? Sure. Is it likely to affect us in ANY matter? Hell no. Will we soon be making 3 for 1 trades where we're adding impact players? Hopefully, or else we're all likely to go crazy. But our 40 man is definitely manageable currently. It's not even close to being a real issue, nor is our ability to comprehend the daunting task of looking at it. Kyle summed up our current state pretty well, in my opinion. And with trades or without, we're no where near having an actual crunch. The mistake in Kyle's post is the assumption that all named are likely to be worthless. Most I can buy, all . . . not likely. My guess is that Bryant, Baez, Wilson and other top end prospects combined with mid range prospests and . . . yes . . . free agents and players acquired via trade will eat up a lot of that space.

That appears to be the most comprehensive list I've seen on any subject. Well done. The problem is that no one, not even AZPhil, does a list of rule 5 eligible 3 years out. The Cubs have added both top end and depth to the system in the last two years. Both AA and A+ were successful last year. That generally doesn't happen if you don't have a mix of high end and mid range talent with depth. Those guys are moving to AAA and AA next year. If you combine top end and mid range talent with cash available to spend you can see a lot of those names fly off the board in a hurry. Bard?

Something that none of you seem to see is that we are close to having too many players than a 40 man roster can protect. We are rapidly reaching the point where we MUST move prospects for players.

Sell . . . Hold . . . Buy I was reading a blog last night and post after post of what has been agitating me was made clear. There are some who just want something to happen now, to heck with the future. It is not possible to keep trading one player and get two or three in return while drafting high. Eventually, you have no way to protect them from loss via rule 5. As you approach that point you must reverse course.

I read a number of pieces written about the meeting with season ticket holders and the one thing that sticks out is Theo's comments about August and September. The past two seasons the Cubs went into a tailspin (the Cubs are like an airplane) after the trade deadline. While he did not say it, I take his comments to mean those days are behind us. That said, I do believe they took a half step back last year or maybe better stated as the major league team only took a half step forward. The two major issues were Shark's determination to force the Cubs to bid against the league to retain him (I'd trade him as soon as possible) and Castro . . . enough said.

LOL WUT In other words, who knows what will happen. Just do whatever. http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/09/30/loss-aversion-and-the-stock-ma/ Much of people's reluctance to trade Castro comes from this phenomenon. Nope. I think Kyle's correct. If we use his example and say we owned shares of Industrial Widgets and Tech Phone we would have found that IW declined in value by a greater % than TP. If we found ourselves in need of cash, we would be more inclined to sell shares of TP assuming IW has a greater amount of value to recover. A real life example is, after the dust settled on 9-11, I called my broker and asked how much Airline shares were down. I decided to put some idol cash to work for 9 days and put some money in my pocket. As Nathan Rothschild said, the best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets. The only fear one can legitimately have is that Theo and Jed panic and sell. I have a higher opinion of them than that. They may sell but not because they are in a panic.

Obstructed had a post about the 2002 BP top 100 prospects. The Cubs were loaded with Prior #2 and Big Z #80. The 2002 team had Sosa, Alou, Kid K, A-Gonz and the Farns. They went all in and got A-Ram for Hill #48 and Lee for Choi #40. The difference is we are not in a position to go all in. ah . . . how many of those Boston beards . . . 2014 is a bust, 2015 is when you'll see . . . these monkey cluckers know what they're doing.

23000+ posts and you don't know Vitters can't play Third Base?

This. I think this winter is too soon for the Cubs to move and I would not be surprised to see the Tigers keep Scherzer for a run next year and settle for the comp. They went all in when they signed Fielder.

I think it's a good signing. He's a transition player. He's good enough to prevent junk from floating up from the farm.

I changed my mind. This is why my post count is low. I'd see a post like this and leave for a few months.

Your pessimism is going to look stupid a year from now.

I love the discussion over the last week. There is one more issue that needs to be in the mix. Payroll. Young players (when they offer value) have escalating costs. If you anticipate that you may have a lot of them, you better have a low payroll when they reach the majors. Keeping more than a hand full a year can easily cost . . .5, 7, 10 million a year! in extra payroll. I have to back away from something I posted. I assumed Baez would start in AA and would be a September call up.