Bears week 9: vs Tampa SNF on NBC

[jersey cubs fan]

The NFC South hopefuls are streaking, with 2 straight wins against divisional foes despite their qb throwing like 5 times for 7 yards. They’ve run the ball against crappy teams and the Bears have struggled against the run, sort of, but have made a major upgrade in their interior DL. 
 

theoretically, Chicago should go into the bye week with a relative cake walk. But this is the NFL and everybody is good enough to make things difficult for even the best teams. 
 

bears 33-9

[Banedon]

Bears opened at 6.5 point favorites.

[Derwood]

Will we ever play at noon again?

[Tryptamine]

26 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Will we ever play at noon again?

Let Simmons get his fill, poor guy hadn't played a primetime game since 2023 before last night.

[jersey cubs fan]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

Will we ever play at noon again?

After the bye they have 4 consecutive noon scheduled starts. 3 on a Sunday 

[Banedon]

10 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

After the bye they have 4 consecutive noon scheduled starts. 3 on a Sunday 

I think that Bears-Jags game has a good possibility of being flexed to primetime, but yeah...plenty of noon games coming up.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I guess Benedet hurt his shoulder last night. Hopefully it’s minor. He’s been playing really well.

 

Grady spoke to the media last night and Adam Jahns got the impression his groin injury shouldn’t be an issue. 

[The_Achiever]

No letdowns before the bye please.  

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, The_Achiever said:

No letdowns before the bye please.  

Absolutely have to take care of Tampa and NO before that hellacious last 8 games where every team but Miami is likely a playoff team.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Classic let-down situation here. Go for the throat

[bukie]

1 minute ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Classic let-down situation here. Go for the throat

I don't think the team and staff will let down here. The Bucs are better than their record, and probably still the best team in that NFC South division.

[Wilson A2000]

4 hours ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

I guess Benedet hurt his shoulder last night. Hopefully it’s minor. He’s been playing really well.

 

Grady spoke to the media last night and Adam Jahns got the impression his groin injury shouldn’t be an issue. 

I heard separated shoulder. I don’t think Trapillo played at all yesterday.

[Banedon]

Johnson's didn't mention Benedet as an injury at all in his postgame.  The whole separated shoulder rumor comes from on reporter thinking he heard something.  Kinda skeptical since no reports from the local beat guys.

[Brian707]

Soldier Field going go be nuts with Simmons in first home game.

Bears 41 Bucs 17

[Bobson Dugnutt]

47 minutes ago, Banedon said:

Johnson's didn't mention Benedet as an injury at all in his postgame.  The whole separated shoulder rumor comes from on reporter thinking he heard something.  Kinda skeptical since no reports from the local beat guys.

FWIW, I got shoulder injury from the Hoge & Jahns podcast today but they were extremely light on details.

[raw]

FWIW, Theo was seen with a big ice pack on his shoulder after the game. I saw someone getting interviewed and Theo walked by looking like Quasimodo. So I think the shoulder separation is real. 

Nicholas Moreano heard him literally say the words "separated shoulder" to someone. Guessing we'll get details today the injury report coming out, though I believe there is just a walk thru, if even that.

[Banedon]

1 minute ago, raw said:

FWIW, Theo was seen with a big ice pack on his shoulder after the game. I saw someone getting interviewed and Theo walked by looking like Quasimodo. So I think the shoulder separation is real. 

Nicholas Moreano heard him literally say the words "separated shoulder" to someone. Guessing we'll get details today the injury report coming out, though I believe there is just a walk thru, if even that.

Yeah, Moreano is who I was referring to in my post.  It's just...kind of weird that there's been no actual reporting about this, just..."I overheard another conversation that used a phrase"...I dunno.

[raw]

THIS WAS ALWAYS THE WAY.

All the nerdy analysis during the offseason was that the Bears were a big regression candidate.

- "They aren't going to lead the league in takeaways again!"
- "They won 7 one-score games, they aren't going to get that luck again!"
- "The 4th quarter comebacks are unsustainable!"
- "They didn't add pass rush help!"

While those were legitimate concerns from the outside looking in, I think anyone that watched this team last year could see that these conversations needed to be had with a lot more nuance. The Bears got off to pretty slow starts last year. They were playing from behind a lot while trying to learn one of the most detailed oriented offenses in the league. Two of the top 4 pass catchers were rookies. Rookie at RB. 4 new offensive linemen. This was a team that got better as the game went on, and performed a lot better when they could stop sweating the details and just try to get points in a hurry....which just so happened to be what they did best. 

I went back and looked at all of the turnovers from last year. I can't remember where I put the data, but the more of the Bears turnovers took points OFF the board, rather than put points ON the board. Again, a nuanced conversation. The Bears actually weren't given a bunch of short fields from their turnovers. Over 1/2 the turnovers they took away were when the opponents were in FG range. So obviously, the turnovers were a huge factor, and they were winning because of the takeaways, but it was always a scenario where just getting actual stops 1 or 2 times per game would make up for the lack of takeaways. Also, turnovers are a lot less necessary to get, when you don't turn the ball over yourself. Caleb is literally the best QB in NFL history at keeping the ball out of harm's way. He doesn't throw picks. He doesn't fumble much. So to win turnover margins the Bears didn't have to keep up a historic level of INTs. Just needed a fumble here. A pick there. A banana punt getting muffed every few weeks.

And while the Bears did win 8 one-score games (including playoffs), they were actually a very modest 8-5 in those games. This year they are 2-1 in one-score games. One in the monsoon, with Caleb tearing his hamstring while assumingly taking the lead. The 2 wins were games the Bears otherwise dominated vs Atlanta and New England, and never actually trailed....but ended with a 1 score difference. Clearly, a different formula to end up with around the same result.

And that formula was always the key. You don't need 4th quarter comebacks if you play with the lead. I'd argue it was an anomaly that the Bears even needed comebacks with the fact that they had the league's best run game. Teams that lead the league in rush are usually those teams that are playing with leads. Of the Bears 19 games last year, they played with the lead the majority of the game, only 6 times. So theoretically, a strong run game and a QB that doesn't turn the ball over, and 11 guys on the field that are in Year 2 of a difficult offense should be able get leads early and hold onto to them, because they aren't going to beat themselves by turning the ball over or being forced to throw the ball around like GB is right now. And the run game hasn't even been THAT good the last few weeks without Monangai.

While there is still a long way to go this season and the Bears could certainly still miss the playoffs if they don't beat division teams, it looks like the expectations of the Bears' demise were greatly exaggerated. And I'm feeling big "I told you so" energy. 

Oh, and now they have pass rush help too!

 

[raw]

35 minutes ago, Banedon said:

Yeah, Moreano is who I was referring to in my post.  It's just...kind of weird that there's been no actual reporting about this, just..."I overheard another conversation that used a phrase"...I dunno.

The Bears haven't really been together since the injury though. They stayed in Seattle overnight and flew back yesterday. No practices/meetings have happened. Theo played thru the injury and never left the field. IDK how many beat guys were in the lockeroom or even paying attention (Bears beat isn't the best). I just think there hasn't been an opportunity for an update/reporting. 

[Wilson A2000]

1 hour ago, Banedon said:

Yeah, Moreano is who I was referring to in my post.  It's just...kind of weird that there's been no actual reporting about this, just..."I overheard another conversation that used a phrase"...I dunno.

The Bears are weird on injuries. I don’t think they said what Kmet’s injury actually was and they never said what grade injury Caleb had to his hammy.

[raw]

1 hour ago, Wilson A2000 said:

The Bears are weird on injuries. I don’t think they said what Kmet’s injury actually was and they never said what grade injury Caleb had to his hammy.

I feel like teams are always vague with QBs. Like the Ravens haven't even said what Lamar did to his thumb, even though we could see it turned the wrong way. They haven't said he's out for the year, just said will have surgery. Cincy has done similar with Burrow. Philly was very non-committal to the Hurts injury for the first week. It's always "week to week" or "out for the season" with a QB just because of the nature of that position. At least with Kmet, we have been told he's done for the season, even though "ACL tear" hasn't been thrown out there officially.

[Banedon]

Speaking of injuries

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, Banedon said:

Speaking of injuries

That's too bad, was just thinking of him, he started playing really well.

[Wilson A2000]

57 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

That's too bad, was just thinking of him, he started playing really well.

He was. It’s unfortunate that Braxton can’t stay healthy.

[Tryptamine]

Braxton out for the year, Benedet with a separated shoulder and Trapilo is very much not physically ready to be an every down left tackle. LT might be your biggest deadline need behind CB now.