Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Jason Ross]

Sharma dropped a nugget on his recent podcast that the Cubs and Tarik Skubal have mutual interest in each other. While I'd hesitate to go bananas over that information, considering that every team wants a great pitcher and Skubal likely wants to get paid (and the Cubs could conceivably pay him), coming from the source, this is likely a good sign.

The Cubs aren't going to be unaware of the price due to his agent and his market and they aren't going to think there's going to be a sweetheart deal here. That puts them in the ballpark of understanding. They might not win a bidding war, but if you're on Team Tarik (and for the record, I am on Team Tarik) this is a good first sign.

[macarthur31]

58 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Sharma dropped a nugget on his recent podcast that the Cubs and Tarik Skubal have mutual interest in each other. While I'd hesitate to go bananas over that information, considering that every team wants a great pitcher and Skubal likely wants to get paid (and the Cubs could conceivably pay him), coming from the source, this is likely a good sign.

The Cubs aren't going to be unaware of the price due to his agent and his market and they aren't going to think there's going to be a sweetheart deal here. That puts them in the ballpark of understanding. They might not win a bidding war, but if you're on Team Tarik (and for the record, I am on Team Tarik) this is a good first sign.

Nice find.  I like Sharma and Mooney, but I find that the podcast feels like at times how they're workshopping articles - and since I read their articles consistently, it just feels a bit redundant. (But that's just me - I'm just glad we got 'em writing on the beat.)

That aside, this is a very interesting nugget in that the mutual interest is now out in the open.  Given that Boras and Hoyer have worked together on "win/win" deals very recently (like Bregman) suggests to me that this has entered "realm of possibility" which is slightly better than "hypothetical."

Of course, a counter to this could be - this is just idle chatter to stoke the Skubal derby - but, to your point, Jason, this was already gonna be the main event in this offseason.  The wondering is whether or not it gets done before CBA expires -I'm inclined to think so, as I infer that Skubal would want to have peace of mind heading into the lockout, and he doesn't live too far from Sloan Park, right?

[Rcal10]

If they do get Skubal I hope they plan on spending big after him. I really won’t be happy if it is Skubal and then they go with low end pitchers for the last 2 they need. I don’t want May and Buehler because we can spend more. And that goes for the 3 bats they need too. If Skubal means they fill the rest of the team with pitchers like May, Peterson and/or Buehler or any number of other guys like them, and then fill in the bats with guys like Conforto, Taylor, Ward, Robert, Bell and guys like that. I’m not sure they are a 90+ win team. Love the idea of Skubal, but if they get him I hope they don’t stop there and go cheap everywhere else. I know they can’t spend big everywhere. But maybe at least one more MOR starter and/or a bat they spend $10-$15M on. Basically, if they are going to go big, go big! 

[Nolo]

52 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If they do get Skubal I hope they plan on spending big after him. I really won’t be happy if it is Skubal and then they go with low end pitchers for the last 2 they need. 

Exactly, this is my fear. They should have the money even after a Skubal contract, especially on an AAV basis. But I don’t want them to just be satisfied after Skubal. We need a true #1 and #2. And likely a #3 rotation anchor. Skubal would be a great start though. 

[Jason Ross]

I think we are manufacturing fears. At no point has Hoyer gone with what felt like "half measures" in which they do one big thing and then punt the rest. We can point out times when they left themselves short, or maybe times you didn't love what they did, but they always put together what feels like a full off-season. 

If they sign Skubal, I am confident it won't be an off-season in which that's the only winning move they pull. 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Exactly, this is my fear. They should have the money even after a Skubal contract, especially on an AAV basis. But I don’t want them to just be satisfied after Skubal. We need a true #1 and #2. And likely a #3 rotation anchor. Skubal would be a great start though. 

I mean, if they work with Skubal and get some deferred money into the deal so maybe he only counts as $35M AND they actually go to $90M, they can probably still add someone like Holmes and then find a guy under $15M as the 3 pitcher they sign. And still have maybe $17M-$22M for 3 bats. Not enough for a guy like Arozarena or Suzuki and not even enough for Happ. But maybe Conforto, Ward, Robert, Taylor etc…. are guys you can pick from. Things still need to go right, but a rotation of Skubal, Holmes, Peterson, Steele and Cabrera has a possibility of being very good And if Brown can pitch out of the pen, the pen should be good too. Plus they would still have Garrett and Assad to fill in on the rotation and/or be in the pen. It can work. They can do all of this and be good. But the questions marks going into the season have to be answered positively. Steele and Brown needs to be healthy and Cabrera needs to pitch to what they expected out of him. 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think we are manufacturing fears. At no point has Hoyer gone with what felt like "half measures" in which they do one big thing and then punt the rest. We can point out times when they left themselves short, or maybe times you didn't love what they did, but they always put together what feels like a full off-season. 

If they sign Skubal, I am confident it won't be an off-season in which that's the only winning move they pull. 

He traded for Tucker and then traded Bellinger for nothing but salary relief. That is the definition of making a big move and then following it up with punting. Why not trade Bellinger for a pitcher who might make the same amount of money. If he was going all in he would do that. They have a budget. He will stick to it. I just hope it is a budget he can add $90M this season. 
I am not saying he will punt if he gets Skubal. I am just saying I hope the budget is where he can add $90M. Because if all it is, is Skubal and the. A bunch of cheap signings it will not be enough. I do believe Jed will do what he can and generally does a decent job in the off season. But if they sign Skubal I hope it signals they plan on living in the high end of what we hope they spend. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He traded for Tucker and then traded Bellinger for nothing but salary relief. That is the definition of making a big move and then following it up with punting. Why not trade Bellinger for a pitcher who might make the same amount of money. If he was going all in he would do that. They have a budget. He will stick to it. I just hope it is a budget he can add $90M this season. 
I am not saying he will punt if he gets Skubal. I am just saying I hope the budget is where he can add $90M. Because if all it is, is Skubal and the. A bunch of cheap signings it will not be enough. I do believe Jed will do what he can and generally does a decent job in the off season. But if they sign Skubal I hope it signals they plan on living in the high end of what we hope they spend. 

The Cubs attempted to still sign Bregman and Scott. You can be upset he came up short but Hoyer didn't just trade Bellinger. He attempted to get the best 3b and the best reliever. His failure does not constitute inaction.

Again, I think we are creating things to be fearful of. If the Cubs sign the biggest contract in club history by nearly 2x the size of the last I have no doubt they will spend plenty to put an immediate winner behind him out. 

Let's sign the best SP on the market first, anyways, before we even begin to worry. 

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs attempted to still sign Bregman and Scott. You can be upset he came up short but Hoyer didn't just trade Bellinger. He attempted to get the best 3b and the best reliever. His failure does not constitute inaction.

Again, I think we are creating things to be fearful of. If the Cubs sign the biggest contract in club history by nearly 2x the size of the last I have no doubt they will spend plenty to put an immediate winner behind him out. 

Let's sign the best SP on the market first, anyways, before we even begin to worry. 

Going to just respond to the last sentence. I absolutely agree. That is an awesome start. Then let’s watch the rest of the off season. I was just trying to see what a team could look like. And at $90M to spend they can make a very good team several different ways, even with Skubal taking a large chuck. Wasn’t meant to be doom and gloom “Jed won’t do anything after”. It was thinking outloud as to what they can do once they sign him. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

If they do get Skubal I hope they plan on spending big after him. I really won’t be happy if it is Skubal and then they go with low end pitchers for the last 2 they need. I don’t want May and Buehler because we can spend more. And that goes for the 3 bats they need too. If Skubal means they fill the rest of the team with pitchers like May, Peterson and/or Buehler or any number of other guys like them, and then fill in the bats with guys like Conforto, Taylor, Ward, Robert, Bell and guys like that. I’m not sure they are a 90+ win team. Love the idea of Skubal, but if they get him I hope they don’t stop there and go cheap everywhere else. I know they can’t spend big everywhere. But maybe at least one more MOR starter and/or a bat they spend $10-$15M on. Basically, if they are going to go big, go big! 

Right, Hoyer puts his money in Skubal and then goes out and gets cheap bullpen arms, defeats the purpose 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Right, Hoyer puts his money in Skubal and then goes out and gets cheap bullpen arms, defeats the purpose 

That wasn’t really my point. I was just trying to figure out how they can maneuver $90M in additional payroll to get what they need after signing Skubal. Basically thinking out loud. And the pen isn’t a place I would spend money in anyway. I didn’t want to turn this into a Jed bashing of things he won’t do. I just hope the budget is $90M. If it is there are a lot of ways they can be good. And adding a pen arm would be way down my list. 

[mk49]

If we sign Skubal (highly unlikely), they could just re-sign Peterson.  Then, trade for another SP.  Even with Skubal and Peterson signed, they still have about $30 million.  It'll be a very interesting winter.

Edited 19 hours ago by mk49

[Bertz]

5 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Sharma dropped a nugget on his recent podcast that the Cubs and Tarik Skubal have mutual interest in each other. While I'd hesitate to go bananas over that information, considering that every team wants a great pitcher and Skubal likely wants to get paid (and the Cubs could conceivably pay him), coming from the source, this is likely a good sign.

The Cubs aren't going to be unaware of the price due to his agent and his market and they aren't going to think there's going to be a sweetheart deal here. That puts them in the ballpark of understanding. They might not win a bidding war, but if you're on Team Tarik (and for the record, I am on Team Tarik) this is a good first sign.

I am not on Team Tarik, but I do think an offseason where the team likely has in the vicinity of $100M to spend and 70-80% of that is going to go towards starting pitching is the time to make this happen if you're ever going to consider it.

[Gjfificifjdej]

Im all for max spending (we are the 2nd richest team in the NL FFS) but im hard nope on Skubal. Dude is already on the pudgy side, already has shown how little he cares about team with his conduct towards the Tigers/Team USA in 2026. Yuck. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, mk49 said:

If we sign Skubal (highly unlikely), they could just re-sign Peterson.  Then, trade for another SP.  Even with Skubal and Peterson signed, they still have about $30 million.  It'll be a very interesting winter.

I don’t the they have anything to trade to get a cheap good young pitcher. I would rather just sign a 3rd pitcher. If they sign just Skubal and Peterson they should have closer to $35-$40M to still spend. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

That wasn’t really my point. I was just trying to figure out how they can maneuver $90M in additional payroll to get what they need after signing Skubal. Basically thinking out loud. And the pen isn’t a place I would spend money in anyway. I didn’t want to turn this into a Jed bashing of things he won’t do. I just hope the budget is $90M. If it is there are a lot of ways they can be good. And adding a pen arm would be way down my list. 

That just the thing though, if 90 mil is Hoyer max, signing Skubal will cost at least half that. 

Leaves them with about 45 to add 2 corner OFers, maybe another SP, backup catcher, possibly a DH bat, and a now hes putting together a bullpen on the cheap end.

So you got your ace, but once again the pen will or could be a bunch of guys that will struggle to hold leads 

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, chibears55 said:

That just the thing though, if 90 mil is Hoyer max, signing Skubal will cost at least half that. 

Leaves them with about 45 to add 2 corner OFers, maybe another SP, backup catcher, possibly a DH bat, and a now hes putting together a bullpen on the cheap end.

So you got your ace, but once again the pen will or could be a bunch of guys that will struggle to hold leads 

You keep going back to putting together a bullpen on the cheap. I don’t think he is putting together a bullpen at all. I think he has it already. They have Zeferjahn, Palencia, Rolison and Webb all coming back. They have Maton and Miller who should be healthy. They have Garrett and Riley Martin to fight for a left handed spot in the pen. There is Assad for long relief. And if Brown can’t start but can pitch out of the pen that gives them another quality pen arm. Their pen is better equipped going into this off season than it has been in years. Those guys plus some guys like Hollowell, Ferguson, maybe Wiggins, maybe Horton come August, Roberts, maybe Hodge and that is the pen.   
Once we agree the pen isn’t going to be added to we are talking about around $50M to spend. Hopefully Skubal can have some deferral money in his contract bringing the cap total to $40M. If they have Ayers, Shaw, Alcantara and Ramirez all on the ML roster it leaves them with 3 spots to fill offensively. Maybe Triantos takes one. So they have 2 bats and 2 more starting pitchers to sign with $50M to work with. That should get them two bats from guys like Robert, Conforto, Taylor, Ward, Bell, etc…. One pitcher in the range of Holmes ($19-$22M) and one pitcher in the range of Peterson ($14-$16M) 
At most I can see someone like Civale brought back. But not because Jed is being cheap. Because he believes the pen is already pretty solid. Also a slight hedge against Steele and Brown coming back healthy and Cabrera becoming what they hoped he would be when they signed him.

[Nolo]

Cubs have enough money this off season to sign 2 top starting pitchers, an elite bullpen arm, and a corner OF. I think there’s a lot more money on the table than most realize. Even at $260-280M total payroll, that’s a lot of millions to add in one off season.

Then when you factor in the possibility of a trade, this can be a very productive offseason. It’s just unfortunate it’s landing on an offseason with such a compressed time period (1 month possibly) and before a season with so much uncertainty of whether not it’s going to be played or a shortened season. 

[Nolo]

I am seeing reports that Clay Holmes actually hasn’t officially declined his player option yet and Cubs could be working out an extension that could include that option in year 1. If so, Clay could be had for $12M in 2027 which secures a solid spot in the rotation at a nice discount.

I am not getting my hopes up quite yet though.

I check MLBPA myself, he isn’t listed as a cubs FA yet: https://www.mlbplayers.com/post/complete-list-xx-b-free-agents

Edited 5 hours ago by Nolo

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Cubs have enough money this off season to sign 2 top starting pitchers, an elite bullpen arm, and a corner OF. I think there’s a lot more money on the table than most realize. Even at $260-280M total payroll, that’s a lot of millions to add in one off season.

Then when you factor in the possibility of a trade, this can be a very productive offseason. It’s just unfortunate it’s landing on an offseason with such a compressed time period (1 month possibly) and before a season with so much uncertainty of whether not it’s going to be played or a shortened season. 

I remember when I used to think like you do now. Then every off season they didn’t spend what I thought they would. Kind of tempers my enthusiasm a bit on them spending big. Especially since they extended out of their comfort last year. Maybe you are right. But I think I am going to side with the many who don’t agree with your idea of what they can or will spend. 
BTW, I do think they may spend $90M. I am not suggesting otherwise. But I don’t agree that is enough to get Skubal, spend another $20M on a top pitcher, $18M on a elite pen arm and $17M or so on a corner outfielder, and still have to fill 2 more bench spots and another starting pitcher. You are going to $115M+. I don’t see that. They can do some of this, but not all. And I don’t feel they have enough assets to pull of a trade of any consequence for a young starting pitcher. At least not without losing Shaw or Ramirez who I would rather keep. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I am seeing reports that Clay Holmes actually hasn’t officially declined his player option yet and Cubs could be working out an extension that could include that option in year 1. If so, Clay could be had for $12M in 2027 which secures a solid spot in the rotation at a nice discount.

I am not getting my hopes up quite yet though.

I check MLBPA myself, he isn’t listed as a cubs FA yet: https://www.mlbplayers.com/post/complete-list-xx-b-free-agents

This would be a nice start.

[Nolo]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I remember when I used to think like you do now. Then every off season they didn’t spend what I thought they would. Kind of tempers my enthusiasm a bit on them spending big. Especially since they extended out of their comfort last year. Maybe you are right. But I think I am going to side with the many who don’t agree with your idea of what they can or will spend. 
BTW, I do think they may spend $90M. I am not suggesting otherwise. But I don’t agree that is enough to get Skubal, spend another $20M on a top pitcher, $18M on a elite pen arm and $17M or so on a corner outfielder, and still have to fill 2 more bench spots and another starting pitcher. You are going to $115M+. I don’t see that. They can do some of this, but not all. And I don’t feel they have enough assets to pull of a trade of any consequence for a young starting pitcher. At least not without losing Shaw or Ramirez who I would rather keep. 

I can understand that. Also I keep mentioning that elite bullpen arm to try and speak it into existence, but I promise I’m not *that* delusional 😆 It’s the one thing I keep bringing up that I want, but don’t really believe will happen. We shall see how everything pans out. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I can understand that. Also I keep mentioning that elite bullpen arm to try and speak it into existence, but I promise I’m not *that* delusional 😆 It’s the one thing I keep bringing up that I want, but don’t really believe will happen. We shall see how everything pans out. 

Speaking of delusional, maybe I am doing the same thing. Maybe me thinking Webb, Zeferjahn, Palencia, Rolison and Brown is a solid core towards a lockdown pen, is delusional and trying to speak that into existence. Add Marton and Miller and maybe even Garrett and perhaps Jed already did the heavy lifting for this years pen.🤷 We obviously both want the same thing. A great Cubs team. And I think there is enough roads to that happening. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You keep going back to putting together a bullpen on the cheap. I don’t think he is putting together a bullpen at all. I think he has it already. They have Zeferjahn, Palencia, Rolison and Webb all coming back. They have Maton and Miller who should be healthy. They have Garrett and Riley Martin to fight for a left handed spot in the pen. There is Assad for long relief. And if Brown can’t start but can pitch out of the pen that gives them another quality pen arm. Their pen is better equipped going into this off season than it has been in years. Those guys plus some guys like Hollowell, Ferguson, maybe Wiggins, maybe Horton come August, Roberts, maybe Hodge and that is the pen.   
Once we agree the pen isn’t going to be added to we are talking about around $50M to spend. Hopefully Skubal can have some deferral money in his contract bringing the cap total to $40M. If they have Ayers, Shaw, Alcantara and Ramirez all on the ML roster it leaves them with 3 spots to fill offensively. Maybe Triantos takes one. So they have 2 bats and 2 more starting pitchers to sign with $50M to work with. That should get them two bats from guys like Robert, Conforto, Taylor, Ward, Bell, etc…. One pitcher in the range of Holmes ($19-$22M) and one pitcher in the range of Peterson ($14-$16M) 
At most I can see someone like Civale brought back. But not because Jed is being cheap. Because he believes the pen is already pretty solid. Also a slight hedge against Steele and Brown coming back healthy and Cabrera becoming what they hoped he would be when they signed him.

Keeping what they have is on the cheap end, meaning not spending money for the pen, and or spending little on if they do add a guy or two.  

The pen was a problem most of year, even when they were getting decent starts. 

Bringing back the same guys or adding 1 or 2 more on the cheap end not going to fix it.

Adding Skubal would be awesome but I dont think itll be enough to help carry this team if Hoyer is going to be limited on spending. 

I think Hoyer if limited on payroll will go for quality over quantity, I think he adds a couple bullpen arms because it was a problem last season and he needs to address it somehow, not just bring back the same guys.

And

He'll add likely 2 new SP, thatll be in the 18-22 per range like you mentioned. 

If theyre going to go with Ayers, Ramirez,  Alcantara,  etc  to replace Kelly, Happ, and Suzuki ABs, the offense will likely be going backwards. 

Again Skubal would be great, but if Hoyer is capped on a set price to spend like that 90 mil, I think it would be pointless to spend most of that money on him if it means the rest of the roster suffers.

[Gjfificifjdej]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Speaking of delusional, maybe I am doing the same thing. Maybe me thinking Webb, Zeferjahn, Palencia, Rolison and Brown is a solid core towards a lockdown pen, is delusional and trying to speak that into existence. Add Marton and Miller and maybe even Garrett and perhaps Jed already did the heavy lifting for this years pen.🤷 We obviously both want the same thing. A great Cubs team. And I think there is enough roads to that happening. 

That bullpen lineup looks more like a team that wants to tank than make a run. Soul crushing watching half of those names attempt to throw a baseball. Jacob Webb cannot get major league innings on a serious team.