Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-16-26

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa vs. St. Paul, 1:08 pm
Knoxville vs. Rocket City, 1:00 pm
South Bend at Great Lakes, 12:05 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Hill City, 5:35 pm

Both DSL teams have the day off

Probable Starters:

Iowa: LHP Jordan Wicks
Knoxville: RHP Kevin Valdez
South Bend: LHP Ethan Flanagan
Myrtle Beach: TBD

[Illiterate Scholar]

Kepley 3/4 with a homer. Off to quite the start at AA

[Funky-daddy]

I’d be thrilled to eat my words about Kepley. Can he possibly develop 15-20 homer power ?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[lfg26]

Kepley with 15-20 homer power is a consistent MLB all-star. And projecting that many homers for him definitely isn't that big of a stretch. I'd love it if Kepley unlocks .450+ slugging at the MLB level, which he might....  however, he's so good at everything else that it seems strange to have that be the stat that gets him over the top.

I feel like all the Kepley haters on NSB might have to indeed eat their words within the next couple years.... whether he's on the Cubs or on another MLB team. Personally, if he continues to progress like he has, I want him as our starting LF for the next decade. The hate I see for him on here is honestly incredibly confusing. I understand wanting more SLG potential for an outfielder. I understand that he's never been a blue-chip prospect. He's got such a unique and effective game though. He just keeps proving people wrong over and over.... I love those prospects. 

[profisme]

1 hour ago, lfg26 said:

Kepley with 15-20 homer power is a consistent MLB all-star. And projecting that many homers for him definitely isn't that big of a stretch. I'd love it if Kepley unlocks .450+ slugging at the MLB level, which he might....  however, he's so good at everything else that it seems strange to have that be the stat that gets him over the top.

I feel like all the Kepley haters on NSB might have to indeed eat their words within the next couple years.... whether he's on the Cubs or on another MLB team. Personally, if he continues to progress like he has, I want him as our starting LF for the next decade. The hate I see for him on here is honestly incredibly confusing. I understand wanting more SLG potential for an outfielder. I understand that he's never been a blue-chip prospect. He's got such a unique and effective game though. He just keeps proving people wrong over and over.... I love those prospects. 

A don’t disagree that having a bit of diversification in your lineup is a good thing. He offers a very rich man’s Brett Bateman profile but with more slug and a bit more speed possibly? 

[profisme]

Or a poor man’s Brian Giles?

[lfg26]

51 minutes ago, profisme said:

Or a poor man’s Brian Giles?

Yeah one of the "problems" with Kepley is that he lacks good comps for us to think about. I don't think Brett Bateman or Ty Southisene are great comps (zero SLG for them, and just levels worse at baserunning, and BB/K), even though I wish them well. In another thread, Steven Kwan came up and I think that's pretty solid, although I see a potentially higher ceiling for Kepley. The other comps I've come up with are a poor man's Ricky Henderson, or Kevin McGonigle with less SLG and defense WAR, but more steals. I guess I don't hate "a rich man's Brett Bateman". lol

Edited yesterday at 02:36 AM by lfg26

[Bertz]

I think the problem with Kepley is still we don't know how much of a haircut his production is going to take when he's forced to swing the bat.

Kepley this year is swinging 34.4% of the time.  That would be the 3rd lowest rate since 2021 (min 300 PAs) if he were a major leaguer.  He has below average power, and his contact numbers (86-87%) are good not elite.

If the contact ratchets up a gear (and in a tiny initial sample at AA, it has) you can see something in the Kwan/Hoerner/early career Brett Gardner neighborhood.  

On the flipside Jakob Marsee has a pretty similar toolkit and had pretty similar minor league numbers through the same level, and sailing has not been nearly as smooth since he got to the upper minors.  He's probably going to stick as a major leaguer but looks very much like a reserve at this point.

[Outshined_One]

11 hours ago, lfg26 said:

Yeah one of the "problems" with Kepley is that he lacks good comps for us to think about.

It's part of the reason why I'm back and forth on how to evaluate him (and Ayers, to a lesser extent).  On the one hand, he has the sort of present toolkit that says "4th OF in his prime" because you're not entirely sure where his power/hit tool are going to end up once he starts facing ML-quality pitching on the regular, but his defense/speed are strong enough to be an asset off the bench.  On the other hand, he's met every challenge, and now that he's in AA and producing, the power/hit concerns are not as prevalent as they were earlier this year.  This isn't the sort of thing that comes along frequently enough to build a reliable career projection arc, ya know?

I'm still skeptical about the notion that he could regularly be a 15/20 HR threat in the majors, and there's always the chance he falls flat on his face at some point, but even if his bat ends up comparable to Nico's and he's regularly putting up 100ish wRC+ while keeping up his defense and baserunning, that's good enough (although admittedly not ideal) to merit a starting corner OF spot.

The fun question I have right now is how to rank Hartshorn, Ayers, Conrad, and him in the system.  I get the sense that, by the time the AFL wraps up, all four will be in consideration for various publications' Top 100 lists, and that's admittedly a really fun notion.

[Funky-daddy]

8 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It's part of the reason why I'm back and forth on how to evaluate him (and Ayers, to a lesser extent).  On the one hand, he has the sort of present toolkit that says "4th OF in his prime" because you're not entirely sure where his power/hit tool are going to end up once he starts facing ML-quality pitching on the regular, but his defense/speed are strong enough to be an asset off the bench.  On the other hand, he's met every challenge, and now that he's in AA and producing, the power/hit concerns are not as prevalent as they were earlier this year.  This isn't the sort of thing that comes along frequently enough to build a reliable career projection arc, ya know?

I'm still skeptical about the notion that he could regularly be a 15/20 HR threat in the majors, and there's always the chance he falls flat on his face at some point, but even if his bat ends up comparable to Nico's and he's regularly putting up 100ish wRC+ while keeping up his defense and baserunning, that's good enough (although admittedly not ideal) to merit a starting corner OF spot.

The fun question I have right now is how to rank Hartshorn, Ayers, Conrad, and him in the system.  I get the sense that, by the time the AFL wraps up, all four will be in consideration for various publications' Top 100 lists, and that's admittedly a really fun notion.

Does a 100wrc+ really stick as a starting corner OF though ? I guess that’s Kwan for 3/5 of his career and he’s putting up ~3 fwar 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Funky-daddy said:

Does a 100wrc+ really stick as a starting corner OF though ? I guess that’s Kwan for 3/5 of his career and he’s putting up ~3 fwar 

It probably depends on how much offense we're getting out of Swanson/Bregman/Hoerner by that point.  I'm generally a "WAR is WAR" type but there's only so many places you can punt on offense for defense.

The production we're getting from PCA in CF helps.  And if we get positive offense from catcher that helps too.  

[Rex Buckingham]

9 minutes ago, Funky-daddy said:

Does a 100wrc+ really stick as a starting corner OF though ? I guess that’s Kwan for 3/5 of his career and he’s putting up ~3 fwar 

with what we hope his baserunning and defensive value will be, probably. Especially considering PCA in CF gives a much better bat than that average CF

[sneakypower]

14 hours ago, profisme said:

Or a poor man’s Brian Giles?

perhaps, but in the same way i could call myself a poor man's Jeff Bezos

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

It probably depends on how much offense we're getting out of Swanson/Bregman/Hoerner by that point.  I'm generally a "WAR is WAR" type but there's only so many places you can punt on offense for defense.

The production we're getting from PCA in CF helps.  And if we get positive offense from catcher that helps too.  

I tried to tiptoe around this issue, but yeah, this team as-is runs into a potential problem if that version of Kepley is in a corner OF spot in that you're looking at a bunch of guys in the lineup who produce a lot of contact without commensurate power, particularly if Seiya leaves in the offseason.   In that scenario, you're looking at PCA, followed by Bregman, Busch, and Dansby for the thump in your lineup, which...engh.

It's not to say the Cubs *have* to trade Kepley for him to realize his value, but the Cubs are not presently constructed particularly well for the Nico version of him to take over everyday duties in a corner.

[sneakypower]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

if Seiya leaves in the offseason