Random trade speculation

[JD94]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Whoever wins the highest bid on Skubal is definitely going to give up a lot,  Wonder if there's a comparitive pitcher in recent years ago was traded at TDL to compare.

Can't think of a better player to have for a playoff run than an elite TOR.  Sad to say, but similar to how we used Chapman in 2016, teams are probably even more willing to ride a rental pitcher hard in the playoffs if they don't have to worry about injury repercussions don't the road.

I saw a tweet yesterday somebody put together over like the last 15 years when TORP were traded and almost every single prospect dealt were busts. Like 90% of them. Maybe the guy missed some guys, I didn’t fact check his work, but it was pretty eye opening. We all know most prospects bust anyways 

[profisme]

35 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Whoever wins the highest bid on Skubal is definitely going to give up a lot,  Wonder if there's a comparitive pitcher in recent years ago was traded at TDL to compare.

Can't think of a better player to have for a playoff run than an elite TOR.  Sad to say, but similar to how we used Chapman in 2016, teams are probably even more willing to ride a rental pitcher hard in the playoffs if they don't have to worry about injury repercussions don't the road.

Randy Johnson to the Astros and CC to the Brewers. 

[Stratos]

23 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I saw a tweet yesterday somebody put together over like the last 15 years when TORP were traded and almost every single prospect dealt were busts. Like 90% of them. Maybe the guy missed some guys, I didn’t fact check his work, but it was pretty eye opening. We all know most prospects bust anyways 

Interesting. We don't even have any top 50 prospects.  Hartshorn is #60 and Rojas #63.  Do we even have enough to get Skubal?

We only got Canario and Kilian for Bryant though lol, but he wasn't quite Skubal.

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Interesting. We don't even have any top 50 prospects.  Hartshorn is #60 and Rojas #63.  Do we even have enough to get Skubal?

We only got Canario and Kilian for Bryant though lol, but he wasn't quite Skubal.

GM’s aren’t clicking MLB Pipeline Top 100 to determine what a player is worth. I mean Hartshorn could be a top 20 prospect in the game this time next year. Or he could completely fall off like Wiggins. Most headliners in trades for players of Skubal’s caliber will be top 100, and the Dodgers for example have a plethora of those players, but that doesn’t automatically mean the Tigers would prefer the Dodgers package. Maybe Jed gets crazy and offers Brown along with Hartshorn and the Dodgers offer Hope ++ but the Tigers prefer Brown and Hartshorn. Do I think that happens? No. But just an example of how actual rankings don’t determine how GM’s pick their preferred package. 

[JD94]

Luis Castillo to the White Sox 

[KCCub]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Luis Castillo to the White Sox 

 

[Stratos]

Just now, JD94 said:

GM’s aren’t clicking MLB Pipeline Top 100 to determine what a player is worth. I mean Hartshorn could be a top 20 prospect in the game this time next year. Or he could completely fall off like Wiggins. 

This is true.  I mean we fans barely know anything about Hartshorn at this point.  We have no idea how teams evaluate anyone.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

Bet that means they keep Hancock and Kirby. Damn. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Stratos said:

This is true.  I mean we fans barely know anything about Hartshorn at this point.  We have no idea how teams evaluate anyone.

Just to show the spread BA has him a top-30 at #29. Where as FanGraphs has him 48. And I've seen him lower than 50. Much depends on whether or not you see him in RF long term or not. Most everyone is convinced on the bat. 

[Bertz]

I knew Luis Castillo was diminished but yeeeeesh he's fallen off.  I'd like to think the Sox are getting some cash in the deal?

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I knew Luis Castillo was diminished but yeeeeesh he's fallen off.  I'd like to think the Sox are getting some cash in the deal?

 

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Bet that means they keep Hancock and Kirby. Damn. 

Haven’t they been trying to dump Castillo for a couple years now though? Plus with Anderson close for them, probably not quite as big of a deal to move a couple guys

[PeanutPunch33]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

It’s good to know that despite their recent success, the Sox are still a dumb organization 😂

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Haven’t they been trying to dump Castillo for a couple years now though? Plus with Anderson close for them, probably not quite as big of a deal to move a couple guys

They had, but they're likely not going to trade two starters from their depth mid-year and try for a playoff spot. That's not robbing Peter to pay Paul, that's gutting Peter to do it. Pitching injuries come fast and hard; depth will matter. They can still trade either in the offseason and acquire offense without moving them.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

L

O

L

I know Getz's start to his tenure was rocky but it seemed like he fully had his crap together by this point.

[Stratos]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I knew Luis Castillo was diminished but yeeeeesh he's fallen off.  I'd like to think the Sox are getting some cash in the deal?

What's the motivations of Seattle in this deal?  Cutting payroll and needing a reliever?  Not liking Castillo or his salary for next year?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

What's the motivations of Seattle in this deal?  Cutting payroll and needing a reliever?  Not liking Castillo or his salary for next year?

The Mariners were going with a 6-man rotation and I don't think Castillo was happy about it.

Also he's been really bad

Edited 15 hours ago by Tangled Up in Plaid

[KCCub]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

What's the motivations of Seattle in this deal?  Cutting payroll and needing a reliever?  Not liking Castillo or his salary for next year?

Yes to all that. He was their #6 SP in a 6 man rotation, owed $24m next year (vesting year in 28 for $25m) and rapidly regressing. + Kade Anderson is coming 

Edited 15 hours ago by KCCub

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

What's the motivations of Seattle in this deal?  Cutting payroll and needing a reliever?  Not liking Castillo or his salary for next year?

Seattle saves about half of the money owed to Castillo when you factor in Dominguez' contract. Dominguez is kind of interesting if you squint. And Boston Smith has been crushing baseballs this year. He still has swing and miss concerns but he has like a wRC+ over 190 and can do some catching. Interesting prospect at least.

[JD94]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They had, but they're likely not going to trade two starters from their depth mid-year and try for a playoff spot. That's not robbing Peter to pay Paul, that's gutting Peter to do it. Pitching injuries come fast and hard; depth will matter. They can still trade either in the offseason and acquire offense without moving them.

I understand. And you’re likely right that this keeps them from trading Hancock or Kirby now, but seems like you could go to any team that’s out of the race and get a similar or better version of Castillo for a little of nothing. I mean he’s barely on pace to put up 1 fWAR this season.
 

This looks like a homerun of a trade for the Mariners to get out from under that contract. Now they should have the flexibility to replace him with someone equal or better without the financial commitment. Then that kind of puts them back in a spot where if they did want to trade Hancock or Kirby, they could do so while targeting bats that can help them now and just bring Anderson up to replace whichever one they decided to move because I mean he looks ready right now. 
 

Again I’m sure you’re correct, just giving my opinion. I thought the whole point of moving Hancock or Kirby in the first place was to get big league ready bats knowing they have pitching that’s close to replace them. I just assumed they would dump Castillo regardless and it had no bearing on a bigger move to get some bats that can help. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, JD94 said:

I understand. And you’re likely right that this keeps them from trading Hancock or Kirby now, but seems like you could go to any team that’s out of the race and get a similar or better version of Castillo for a little of nothing. I mean he’s barely on pace to put up 1 fWAR this season.
 

This looks like a homerun of a trade for the Mariners to get out from under that contract. Now they should have the flexibility to replace him with someone equal or better without the financial commitment. Then that kind of puts them back in a spot where if they did want to trade Hancock or Kirby, they could do so while targeting bats that can help them now and just bring Anderson up to replace whichever one they decided to move because I mean he looks ready right now. 
 

Again I’m sure you’re correct, just giving my opinion. I thought the whole point of moving Hancock or Kirby in the first place was to get big league ready bats knowing they have pitching that’s close to replace them. I just assumed they would dump Castillo regardless and it had no bearing on a bigger move to get some bats that can help. 

In theory, you could. But look: the White Sox just probably really overpaid here. They took all of that bad contract and gave them a somewhat interesting lottery ticket to do so. For a player the Mariners had wanted to cut loose and who had complained about the 6-man thing. 

It's found money. 

As it pertains to Anderson, he hasn't even made his debut at Triple-A. Maybe it's "he's ready, save the bullets" stuff, but it's not always that easy. It took Chase Burns half a year to get into it last year. Do the Mariners want to take that chance in the playoff race with no one to replace him? I think they'd rather keep him as a fantastic "break ice" type than just hand him the keys to the castle right now. Tough assignment.

[JD94]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

In theory, you could. But look: the White Sox just probably really overpaid here. They took all of that bad contract and gave them a somewhat interesting lottery ticket to do so. For a player the Mariners had wanted to cut loose and who had complained about the 6-man thing. 

It's found money. 

As it pertains to Anderson, he hasn't even made his debut at Triple-A. Maybe it's "he's ready, save the bullets" stuff, but it's not always that easy. It took Chase Burns half a year to get into it last year. Do the Mariners want to take that chance in the playoff race with no one to replace him? I think they'd rather keep him as a fantastic "break ice" type than just hand him the keys to the castle right now. Tough assignment.

True. But Chase Burns looked pretty good his first year. Definitely was better than his ERA suggested. And I know just promoting Kade straight from AA is very aggressive, but I figured that was their plan. We will see what happens soon enough though 

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, JD94 said:

True. But Chase Burns looked pretty good his first year. Definitely was better than his ERA suggested. And I know just promoting Kade straight from AA is very aggressive, but I figured that was their plan. We will see what happens soon enough though 

 Per The Athletic 7 minutes ago:

Quote

Now Castillo is gone, in a deal to the Chicago White Sox. But the Mariners are nonetheless open to moving Kirby, according to a person briefed on their discussions.

[Post Count Padder]

The return for Castillo seemed light until seeing the White Sox are taking all of his contract. Kudos to them for going for it but also lol. 

[Bertz]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7485963/2026/08/01/cubs-pitching-trade-deadline-plans/

Not gonna lie this reads like the plan is one of the Angels guys, one of Gausman/Peralta/Holmes, and a closer caliber reliever.  Which if they actually do all that....holy horsefeathers