Random trade speculation

[Dfan25]

What is this nonsense I am reading that the Cubs may trade Suzuki ? WTF ? Who could they possibly get in another trade to replace him ?

[Dfan25]

Detmers went only 5 last night , 2 ER and struck out 9 . Interesting they kept him at 85 pitches only 

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

What is this nonsense I am reading that the Cubs may trade Suzuki ? WTF ? Who could they possibly get in another trade to replace him ?

It's dumb conjecture by a guy who writes here and makes absolutely zero sense.

[Dfan25]

3 minutes ago, mul21 said:

It's dumb conjecture by a guy who writes here and makes absolutely zero sense.

I read something about Heyman mentioning this as well 

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, mul21 said:

It's dumb conjecture by a guy who writes here and makes absolutely zero sense.

So, we should probably be clear here: this didn't start with North Side or an author here. It started with Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal - and those two shouldn't be taken lightly. I'll also say this; the line sounds like a throwaway line and one based on opinion not industry knowledge. But here is where it is coming from:

Source - The Athletic, 7/23

Quote

Three Cubs right-handed hitters of varying experience — right fielder Seiya Suzuki, infielder/outfielder Matt Shaw and outfielder Kevin Alcántara — could appeal to the Mariners.

Also, note that it doesn't say the Cubs are shopping him, only that Seiya could appeal to the Mariners. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo probably appeal to the Cubs, too, but the Mariners aren't trading them, either.

But this isn't the first time the Cubs have been linked to possibly trading offense at the deadline for pitching (Nico Hoerner came up in the same way). I think both times it was an extreme long shot. And I would highly, highly doubt the Cubs would actually do anything like it. But important to note the original sourcing here.

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

So, we should probably be clear here: this didn't start with North Side or an author here. It started with Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal - and those two shouldn't be taken lightly. I'll also say this; the line sounds like a throwaway line and one based on opinion not industry knowledge. But here is where it is coming from:

Source - The Athletic, 7/23

Also, note that it doesn't say the Cubs are shopping him, only that Seiya could appeal to the Mariners. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo probably appeal to the Cubs, too, but the Mariners aren't trading them, either.

But this isn't the first time the Cubs have been linked to possibly trading offense at the deadline for pitching (Nico Hoerner came up in the same way). I think both times it was an extreme long shot. And I would highly, highly doubt the Cubs would actually do anything like it. But important to note the original sourcing here.

Sure, but those guys didn't write 1,000 words and post a video about it.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Sure, but those guys didn't write 1,000 words and post a video about it.

Right. But also understand; it's out there in the zeitgeist and talking about what that might look like isn't a bad idea. It isn't like they're just making horsefeathers up, or basing it on conjecture. This is a website, we do post content and ideas. Exploring that is just what writers do sometimes. Dan Syzmborski wrote a whole article making trades which included Devers to the White Sox and eating most of the contract (unlikely) and that one isn't even traced back to an idea in an article by two of the better "insiders" around. And I say that with all of the love for Dan; he's a personal favorite of mine for many reasons. It's deadline season and playing around with it is natural. 

I think we both agree on this: the Cubs trading Seiya Suzuki is probably among the most unlikely things that's going to happen between today and August 4th. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

34 minutes ago, mul21 said:

It's dumb conjecture by a guy who writes here and makes absolutely zero sense.

Ah great, there goes one of our 120+ hitters.

[chibears55]

Be interesting to see what teams like the Padres Mariners and Marlins will do come the 3rd.

theyre staying close to a WC spot as of now, just wonder if pulling the trigger on guys will come down to winning or losing these next couple games and if they feel they have enough to compete or if it worth holding onto guys and trying to

[squally1313]

We don't have a scheduled starter for Friday. Civale hasn't pitching since Sunday and Assad hasn't pitched since Saturday, so I assume it will be one/both of them. But that seems very dumb because they are both bad at pitching. Trade for someone. 

[Derwood]

Bleacher Nation seems to think that Sandy Alcantara is now off the market

 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

We don't have a scheduled starter for Friday. Civale hasn't pitching since Sunday and Assad hasn't pitched since Saturday, so I assume it will be one/both of them. But that seems very dumb because they are both bad at pitching. Trade for someone. 

I would guess even if the Cubs traded for someone tonight that it would be very hard to get that new SP into the rotation by Friday. Just as a few examples:
Clay Holmes - still on IL, pitched last night
Reid Detmers - pitched last night
Sandy Alcantara - pitched last night
Joe Ryan - Hurt
Tarik Skubal - pitched today

Kevin Guasmann could go, he last pitched the 26th and would put him on schedule to throw Friday. But it's probably close enough to Friday that outside of a guy who was already scheduled to go then, that it'd be Civale/Assad regardless.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Bleacher Nation seems to think that Sandy Alcantara is now off the market

 

Comes from Sammon and Rosenthal, originally. But yes, both of them reported earlier today that the Marlins would listen on their young position players to see if someone would pay out the ass but were likely keeping all of their pitchers.

[Tryptamine]

Crazy to me that we're now 5 days from the trade deadline and there has been an entire 1 trade of any note so far. 

[PeanutPunch33]

I've seen the Seiya trade speculation all over the place - from Heyman, from at least 1 prominent Cubs podcaster on YouTube, from a bunch of random Cubs fans on Twitter.  Heyman I can understand because he does this every year - he seems to think the purpose of baseball is for everyone else to help the New York teams be as good as possible. 

But from other Cubs fans it pisses me the horsefeathers off.  Aside from PCA, there is a noticeable drop off in talent and production between Seiya and the rest of the lineup.  Why trade your 2nd best player and a homegrown guy who's been a top 20 hitter in all of baseball since he came from Japan?  

The Cubs gave Swanson and Hoerner a boat load of money for being nothing more than defense first players.  Yet they've been dragging their feet on extending a guy who's consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball across 5 seasons.  It's time to do the right thing and extend Seiya.  Can't think of a player more deserving of it going into the off-season.  

(end of rant) 

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Crazy to me that we're now 5 days from the trade deadline and there has been an entire 1 trade of any note so far. 

3rd wildcard really slows down early trading

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I've seen the Seiya trade speculation all over the place - from Heyman, from at least 1 prominent Cubs podcaster on YouTube, from a bunch of random Cubs fans on Twitter.  Heyman I can understand because he does this every year - he seems to think the purpose of baseball is for everyone else to help the New York teams be as good as possible. 

But from other Cubs fans it pisses me the horsefeathers off.  Aside from PCA, there is a noticeable drop off in talent and production between Seiya and the rest of the lineup.  Why trade your 2nd best player and a homegrown guy who's been a top 20 hitter in all of baseball since he came from Japan?  

The Cubs gave Swanson and Hoerner a boat load of money for being nothing more than defense first players.  Yet they've been dragging their feet on extending a guy who's consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball across 5 seasons.  It's time to do the right thing and extend Seiya.  Can't think of a player more deserving of it going into the off-season.  

(end of rant) 

I like Seiya, and I'm not entirely against extending him, but he doesn't fit the mold of how the Cubs tend to look to acquire or pay hitters. He's about to be 32 and does not have a lot of defensive versatility. Bregman was also 32, but plays a really strong 3b. Seiya plays a decent RF, which is less positionally valuable than 3b. And we know 32 year olds tend to begin lose bat speed. He's also dealt with a lot of niggling knee and muscle issues - enough that you can see that going south at some point.

With the market Suzuki is the best corner OF'er available in FA and I'm not sure the Cubs want to pay him like that, or the years that would go into it. 

We'll see what happens. But that the Cubs didn't prioritize him in the resigning party is in line with how the team has generally operated and not surprising. 

[Tryptamine]

If I'm being honest, I don't see how next year's team isn't fairly significantly worse than this team. There's too many holes to fill and too many question marks. There's money, but the FA class sucks.

[PeanutPunch33]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I like Seiya, and I'm not entirely against extending him, but he doesn't fit the mold of how the Cubs tend to look to acquire or pay hitters. He's about to be 32 and does not have a lot of defensive versatility. Bregman was also 32, but plays a really strong 3b. Seiya plays a decent RF, which is less positionally valuable than 3b. And we know 32 year olds tend to begin lose bat speed. He's also dealt with a lot of niggling knee and muscle issues - enough that you can see that going south at some point.

With the market Suzuki is the best corner OF'er available in FA and I'm not sure the Cubs want to pay him like that, or the years that would go into it. 

We'll see what happens. But that the Cubs didn't prioritize him in the resigning party is in line with how the team has generally operated and not surprising. 

It's very telling though that he's having his 2 best seasons at age 31 and 32.  This is not a guy who is slowing down any time soon.  In terms of defensive flexibility, he can play RF and LF at an above average level and he's even played CF in a pinch last season.  The Cubs are fortunate to have Conforto this year but if he wasn't around, Suzuki would spell PCA on a handful of days in CF.  I see no reason why they can't bring him back for 3 or 4 more seasons.  He's probably the best right handed bat they've had since guys like Bryant/Contreras left town... and similar to Contreras, this guy is just getting better as he ages.  He's a special hitter and I don't see how the Cubs are better off by letting him walk and sticking Shaw/Ramirez/Conforto in RF next season.  

[Irrelevant Dude]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If I'm being honest, I don't see how next year's team isn't fairly significantly worse than this team.

Completely agree.  Ideally, some of the dropoff is offset by better pitching health, but the offense is going to be a struggle to replicate this year.

Edited 9 hours ago by Irrelevant Dude

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If I'm being honest, I don't see how next year's team isn't fairly significantly worse than this team. There's too many holes to fill and too many question marks. There's money, but the FA class sucks.

I think the offense will definitely take a step back but the pitching has been so bad this year that going from ranking in the 20s to around 10th isn't such a huge leap to think it's impossible.  It certainly hinges on getting someone at the deadline this year that will be around in the future and much better injury luck than they've had this season.

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If I'm being honest, I don't see how next year's team isn't fairly significantly worse than this team. There's too many holes to fill and too many question marks. There's money, but the FA class sucks.

Quite a bit of low hanging fruit to improve the pitching staff, both from an acquisitions and luck (injuries, dongs) standpoint.

There's not really a realistic way to get position player parity without some monster trade.  But it's not hard to see e.g. the position player group lose 8 wins while the pitching staff gains 10.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

It's very telling though that he's having his 2 best seasons at age 31 and 32.  This is not a guy who is slowing down any time soon.  In terms of defensive flexibility, he can play RF and LF at an above average level and he's even played CF in a pinch last season.  The Cubs are fortunate to have Conforto this year but if he wasn't around, Suzuki would spell PCA on a handful of days in CF.  I see no reason why they can't bring him back for 3 or 4 more seasons.  He's probably the best right handed bat they've had since guys like Bryant/Contreras left town... and similar to Contreras, this guy is just getting better as he ages.  He's a special hitter and I don't see how the Cubs are better off by letting him walk and sticking Shaw/Ramirez/Conforto in RF next season.  

I don't think it's necessarily telling. First, his 129 wRC+ is two points higher than his 127 wRC+ in his first season. Virtually the same. Last year's 123 wRC+ was his worst wRC+ of his MLB career; his best year was his second season. 

No one is "slowing down soon" until they slow down. We know for a fact that bat speed dips heavily at age 32. Tracked and noted by many. We don't see an issue with Seiya on this front yet, but that can come for you quickly. 

Lastly, the reason they can't bring him back for three years is that he isn't signing a three year deal. Someone is giving him more. So let's take that off the table. It's bare minimum four, and probably, five.

At four years you're beginning to push it. For example, there are two hitters in baseball aged 35 or older with a wRC+ over 115: Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Freeman is a HoF'er and has amazing staying ability. But hitters just age like horsefeathers right now. League DH hits 108 wRC+ this year and last year it was 114 wRC+. Seiya has a lot of leg injuries and these compound. At what point is he just a DH? And if you're signing him through ages 35 and 36 then you're looking at probably 2/5ths of that contract under water. 

Can a big market team absorb that? Sure! But it's not surprising to see the Cubs balk at that a bit. They'll likely be toting Swanson and Bregman a bit already on their back ends. They very well may not want another mid-30's hitters soaking up the DH spot too.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't think it's necessarily telling. First, his 129 wRC+ is two points higher than his 127 wRC+ in his first season. Virtually the same. Last year's 123 wRC+ was his worst wRC+ of his MLB career; his best year was his second season. 

No one is "slowing down soon" until they slow down. We know for a fact that bat speed dips heavily at age 32. Tracked and noted by many. We don't see an issue with Seiya on this front yet, but that can come for you quickly. 

Lastly, the reason they can't bring him back for three years is that he isn't signing a three year deal. Someone is giving him more. So let's take that off the table. It's bare minimum four, and probably, five.

I would agree with you about him signing for longer than 3 years if he was an American born player. But he isn’t and we don’t know how long he wants to stay in the country. He may want to go back sooner. So maybe he does take a 3 year deal. We should never speak as if we know what is in the mind of any players. If he likes it in Chicago, feels 3 more years is enough time to stay in the country and the Cubs give him a fair deal he could stay. He could also agree to the QO and take one year at a time. Again, we don’t know.

I do completely agree with you that I wouldn’t want to do more than 3 years on a deal with the Cubs. 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would agree with you about him signing for longer than 3 years if he was an American born player. But he isn’t and we don’t know how long he wants to stay in the country. He may want to go back sooner. So maybe he does take a 3 year deal. We should never speak as if we know what is in the mind of any players. If he likes it in Chicago, feels 3 more years is enough time to stay in the country and the Cubs give him a fair deal he could stay. He could also agree to the QO and take one year at a time. Again, we don’t know.

I do completely agree with you that I wouldn’t want to do more than 3 years on a deal with the Cubs. 

I'm going to be very clear: I did not speak as if I was in his mind. I'm not sure if you're implying that, but if you are, please don't. I was speaking from a market standing point because we do know how the market treats players like Seiya Suzuki. Kyle Schwarber (33) signed for five years. Cody Bellinger (30) signed for five years, Anthony Santander (30) signed for five years. Teoscar Hernandez signed for three years, but he was coming off a significantly worse season. But OF'ers in this age range at the top of the market generally sign for more than three years, we shouldn't act like Suzuki is signing for three.

So let's just treat him like the market should. Anything else is wild speculation.