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Posted
5 minutes ago, mk49 said:

More pitchers.😄  Hopefully, some of them will be good.

if even a couple of them outside Townsend end up contributing in some way it's probably considered a victory. it's really hard to get good major leaguers out outside of the 1st round

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Posted

Not surprising but a few updates I've got from my guy Savermetrics. 
- Blomker will sign
- Meyers will sign
- Emmanuel Hernandez has changed all social medias over to Cubs stuff and belief is he will sign

(If it's on socials, Savermetrics finds it. Yags is a savant).

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Posted

I'm in the like it but don't love it (yet) camp. Oddly enough, my favorite picks addressed this system's biggest non-pitching weakness with Sorrell and Bailey because they both have the sort of raw power we haven't seen in a minute, even if neither is projected to end up at a premium position.

Otherwise, I said it before, but this is the sort of haul you get when you pick 23rd in a down-ish draft without a big pool. It's a good version of that draft, but it remains to be seen how good it is.

Posted
Just now, Outshined_One said:

I'm in the like it but don't love it (yet) camp. Oddly enough, my favorite picks addressed this system's biggest non-pitching weakness with Sorrell and Bailey because they both have the sort of raw power we haven't seen in a minute, even if neither is projected to end up at a premium position.

Otherwise, I said it before, but this is the sort of haul you get when you pick 23rd in a down-ish draft without a big pool. It's a good version of that draft, but it remains to be seen how good it is.

I just got done typing up my writeup of the full thing so I won't spoil it, but I'm probably closer to this than over the moon, myself. But I also don't want that to sound like a negative; I dig the draft overall and get it. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, bjam12 said:

Sorry I haven't read this through this thread much but can any of these pitchers contribute this season? 

If you're not super big on the MLB draft a rule of thumb is: no one taken in an MLB draft should be counted on to help immediately. It's incredibly rare for a player to contribute a year after the draft (unless you're the Angels who have a tendency to promote all of their top picks to the MLB nearly immediately - they're also a mess of an organization, so there's that, too) let alone this year. Very rare times you might see a special reliever fly through a system, but that's very, very rare.

Most of these picks won't be on the MLB radar for two+ years. Some of them won't be on the radar for seven years. Justin Steele was a prep pick in 2015 and debuted at 26. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, bjam12 said:

Sorry I haven't read this through this thread much but can any of these pitchers contribute this season? 

Nope. Teams realized that hot-shotting guys from the draft to the majors wasn't a particularly great idea, and most pitchers have already seen extensive use as is this season thanks to college coaches who don't always prioritize health.

Posted
1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

Nope. Teams realized that hot-shotting guys from the draft to the majors wasn't a particularly great idea, and most pitchers have already seen extensive use as is this season thanks to college coaches who don't always prioritize health.

Thanks. Didn't think so but do remember in the past some guys getting used like Chris Sale out of the bullpen. Ryan Johnson last year. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I just got done typing up my writeup of the full thing so I won't spoil it, but I'm probably closer to this than over the moon, myself. But I also don't want that to sound like a negative; I dig the draft overall and get it. 

I'm currently toying with my Top 20 post-draft (under the assumption everyone signs). With Ramirez and Alcantara graduating, I'm putting Rojas/Hartshorn as my 1-2 (in some order), followed by Wiggins (3), Kepley/Conrad as 4-5 (again, in some order), and then it's open to debate. Townsend probably slots ahead of Long/Triantos/Ayers and maybe Wing, so he's around 6 or 7.  Sorrell ends up behind that group, so he's between 10-15, and Bailey slots in the 15-25 netherworld.

Everyone else probably ends up off the Top 30, which isn't a bad thing. This system seems to have replenished the depth that's been missing the last two years, and I'm guessing most everyone else is off to the pitch lab, so we probably won't be seeing most of these pitchers until next season.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm currently toying with my Top 20 post-draft (under the assumption everyone signs). With Ramirez and Alcantara graduating, I'm putting Rojas/Hartshorn as my 1-2 (in some order), followed by Wiggins (3), Kepley/Conrad as 4-5 (again, in some order), and then it's open to debate. Townsend probably slots ahead of Long/Triantos/Ayers and maybe Wing, so he's around 6 or 7.  Sorrell ends up behind that group, so he's between 10-15, and Bailey slots in the 15-25 netherworld.

Everyone else probably ends up off the Top 30, which isn't a bad thing. This system seems to have replenished the depth that's been missing the last two years, and I'm guessing most everyone else is off to the pitch lab, so we probably won't be seeing most of these pitchers until next season.

Yeah, quick mental rankings would be like:
Rojas, Hartshorn    |      Wiggins, Conrad, Townsend, Kepley, Ayers    |     Long, Triantos, McGwire, Bailey, Sanders 

With the breaks between tiers. I think you can mostly move the names around in almost any order within those tiers. I'd almost have Wiggins above one, but the injury has me bumping him back a bit. Also forgive me if I forgot a blatant name, quick napkin rankings off my head.

Posted
Just now, Outshined_One said:

Bailey over Sorrell or nah?

Ah, yeah see there's a name I forgot! Put Sorrell in the same group. They're my group of "I can see MLB upside, but like, they have some glaring flaw" tier. 

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Posted
53 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, quick mental rankings would be like:
Rojas, Hartshorn    |      Wiggins, Conrad, Townsend, Kepley, Ayers    |     Long, Triantos, McGwire, Bailey, Sanders 

With the breaks between tiers. I think you can mostly move the names around in almost any order within those tiers. I'd almost have Wiggins above one, but the injury has me bumping him back a bit. Also forgive me if I forgot a blatant name, quick napkin rankings off my head.

curious where you'd put ramirez, alcantara, and ballesteros if they hadn't technically graduated.

Posted

I wrote this yesterday

Quote

FWIW if I were doing a farm ranking today it'd look something like this (not necessarily in order within tiers)

Tier 1: Hartshorn, Rojas

Tier 2: Wiggins, Conrad, Ayers

Tier 3: Kepley, Sanders, Wing, Caple

Tier 4: McGwire, Beck, Southisene, Cepeda, Reid

Tier 5 would be where it really opens up and I don't feel like listing every name, but a combo of lower ceiling guys closer to the majors (Long, Triantos, Trice) and higher ceiling guys a million miles away (Lovich, Mule, the complex league guys, etc.)

Feels like Townsend is clearly Tier 2, I'd probably have him 6th in the org overall

Sorrell and Bailey clearly Tier 3.  I'd probably have them right next to each other 9th/10th?  Behind Kepley/Wing but ahead of Sanders/Caple?

Jasa, Blomker, and Morton in Tier 4.  Maybe this order: Beck, McGwire, Cepeda, Jasa, Southisene, Reid, Blomker, Morton?  This actually brings us to a nice even Top 20.

Barring some intel we have not yet seen no one else would make a top 30 IMO.  Pretty big drop from Morton to Marionneaux and the rest of the gaggle of new college pitchers.

Posted
8 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

curious where you'd put ramirez, alcantara, and ballesteros if they hadn't technically graduated.

Probably have put Ramirez at the top of the second grouping with Wiggins for similar sample size reasons. Ballesteros in group 2 because the bat I believe in enough but I don't know where he's going to sit defensively. As a catcher he's tier 1 as a DH he's tier 2. Kevin Id have probably put in group 2 or group 3 as I waffle on him. One day I see the K% drop and the power and think "yeah that's an MLB regular" and other days I just wonder if he ends up more short-side platooner and that's a 3rd tier. I think I'd probably end up in tier 2 however because part of me thinks it's fatigue more than anything and that it's a bias not reality. 

Posted

Ok, here's how I'd go:

1. Hartshorn
2. Rojas
___
3. Wiggins
4. Townsend
5. Conrad
6. Ayers
___
7. Kepley
8. Sorrell
9. Wing
___
10. McGwire
11. Beck
12. Cabada
13. Bailey
14. Caple
---
15. Long
16. Sanders
17. Cepeda
18. K. Valdez
19. Coppola
20. Southisene

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