Pirates (Chandler) vs Cubs (Taillon): 4/12/26, 1:20pm

[Gjfificifjdej]

I still hate Taillon but hell yeah

[Brian707]

12 hours ago, Derwood said:

Brewers are 1 game out of last place. 

The Vaunted Brewers don't get going until June usually 

[Wilson A2000]

16 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Teams have these stretches, my guy. From May 4th to May 19th the Dodgers went 6-9 last year. They were swept by the Angels and lost a series to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Here is a Dodger's fan' reddit post from that time period: Link here.

You're only focusing on this stretch because we focus on the beginning more than we do other arbitrarily. It'll be fine. There's no pressure.

Lol, my guy. The Dodgers were 29-19 on May 19th last year, were in first place, and had a significantly better roster than the Cubs currently have. That’s just a terrible example.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Lol, my guy. The Dodgers were 29-19 on May 19th last year, were in first place, and had a significantly better roster than the Cubs currently have. That’s just a terrible example.

No it is not. He isn’t suggesting the Cubs are as good as the Dodgers. He is saying even great teams have bad stretches. The Dodgers are a perfect example of that. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Lol, my guy. The Dodgers were 29-19 on May 19th last year, were in first place, and had a significantly better roster than the Cubs currently have. That’s just a terrible example.

You ignored the most important part: you're only focusing on it because it's the start. It's an arbitrary end point. Baseball fans live in such a bubble (more so than other sports because it doesn't allow us to breathe with how many games they throw at us) that we ignore we aren't special, we aren't snowflakes. Every team sucks for 2-3 weeks every year at bare minimum. It doesn't matter if it's in May or the first week of April, it all balances out. The Dodgers were a very good team last year who won 1 of 6 games against the ****** Angels. Good teams lose to bad teams all the time, and good teams have bad runs all the time.

The first time the Dodgers won a W.S under Friedman they famously had a 10-game-win streak and a 10-game losing streak n the same year! 

In 2024, the Houston Astros started the year 4-11 (April 12th). They finished with 88 wins, won the AL West by 5 games. There's another example. And one that fits your oh-so-narrow category of "the start of April".  That team had Alex Bregman on it, you know, the guy on this very Cub team. I'm sure he was just fine. 

But hey, you go creating false panic for a 162-game season on April 12th, which represents under 10% of the entire season. It's going to be a really long year if this is how you're going to handle it. 

[Wilson A2000]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

No it is not. He isn’t suggesting the Cubs are as good as the Dodgers. He is saying even great teams have bad stretches. The Dodgers are a perfect example of that. 

Right, but the Cubs were never a great team to start the year and without Horton and possibly other starters they don’t have nearly the roster to withstand stretches like this. That’s why they currently have a 38% chance to make the playoffs according to Fangraphs. 

[Wilson A2000]

13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

You ignored the most important part: you're only focusing on it because it's the start. It's an arbitrary end point. Baseball fans live in such a bubble (more so than other sports because it doesn't allow us to breathe with how many games they throw at us) that we ignore we aren't special, we aren't snowflakes. Every team sucks for 2-3 weeks every year at bare minimum. It doesn't matter if it's in May or the first week of April, it all balances out. The Dodgers were a very good team last year who won 1 of 6 games against the ****** Angels. Good teams lose to bad teams all the time, and good teams have bad runs all the time.

The first time the Dodgers won a W.S under Friedman they famously had a 10-game-win streak and a 10-game losing streak n the same year! 

In 2024, the Houston Astros started the year 4-11 (April 12th). They finished with 88 wins, won the AL West by 5 games. There's another example. And one that fits your oh-so-narrow category of "the start of April".  That team had Alex Bregman on it, you know, the guy on this very Cub team. I'm sure he was just fine. 

But hey, you go creating false panic for a 162-game season on April 12th, which represents under 10% of the entire season. It's going to be a really long year if this is how you're going to handle it. 

Is Fangraphs causing false panic? No. Will the Cubs play a lot better? Hopefully. Is there some justified pressure on this team and playoff uncertainty. Yes. 

Edited Monday at 01:58 PM by Wilson A2000

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Is Fangraphs causing false panic? 

No. You're misusing playoff odds to create false panic. As of today, the playoff odds are essentially, meaningless. They factor such things as "strength of schedule". Because everyone's record is essentially the same right now, it messes with the data. From Fangraphs own explanation of playoff odds " Early in the season, teams share so many opponents that SOS divergences are generally small." This is just one aspect that goes into playoff odds. 

There are also many projections. FG's projections have the Cubs at 40% or so. But if you switch to their WAR based model it jumps to 56%. Another reason that zeroing in on a single on and creating this idea that there will be tons of "pressure on Counsel and the team" on April 12th is silly. 

We can talk playoff odds much later in the year when things have settled and we're not in "one bad series throws a whole wrench in the situation". One good series swings everything in the opposite direction. They'll be much more interesting when we have a significant sample size. Until then, it's really not worth it to even look. 

[Bertz]

I think I might have fallen into the same trap with Hendricks two years ago so I'm not full throated on this, but I think I'm more encouraged by the extra bats Taillon is missing than I am discouraged by everything else.

[gflore34]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think I might have fallen into the same trap with Hendricks two years ago so I'm not full throated on this, but I think I'm more encouraged by the extra bats Taillon is missing than I am discouraged by everything else.

Two of the HR's were of the wind aided Wrigley Field type, one was a legit HR.  He did settle down, did not let the game get completely out of hand.

[CubUgly]

23 hours ago, Derwood said:

Cohen was chill (for him) in that first inning. Maybe someone told him to stop being such a tryhard 

It also appears to me JD is making a more concerted attempt to engage him in conversation.  They still have zero chemistry but JD's one word answers to his questions last year made me actually feel sorry for the poor guy.   But I agree the try hard was strong with that one last year. 

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

No. You're misusing playoff odds to create false panic. As of today, the playoff odds are essentially, meaningless. They factor such things as "strength of schedule". Because everyone's record is essentially the same right now, it messes with the data. From Fangraphs own explanation of playoff odds " Early in the season, teams share so many opponents that SOS divergences are generally small." This is just one aspect that goes into playoff odds. 

There are also many projections. FG's projections have the Cubs at 40% or so. But if you switch to their WAR based model it jumps to 56%. Another reason that zeroing in on a single on and creating this idea that there will be tons of "pressure on Counsel and the team" on April 12th is silly. 

We can talk playoff odds much later in the year when things have settled and we're not in "one bad series throws a whole wrench in the situation". One good series swings everything in the opposite direction. They'll be much more interesting when we have a significant sample size. Until then, it's really not worth it to even look. 

Pecota-baseball prospectus, gives the Cubs a 76% chance of making the playoffs. Why are projections so different. FYI, I think Pecota is closer to the correct odds. But like you said, too early to really worry about that. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Pecota-baseball prospectus, gives the Cubs a 76% chance of making the playoffs. Why are projections so different. FYI, I think Pecota is closer to the correct odds. But like you said, too early to really worry about that. 

Projections are formula based and each projection weighs things different. Especially with half a month of data only, you'll get wide and varying results.