Winter Meetings Thread

[Derwood]

9 hours ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Now, I'm dizzy, nauseous, and nervous. To an extreme. I gotta get this sorted out for my own sanity. And I find it sad that many here don't like me. It's getting on my nerves. This is by far the worst reception I've ever received. 😞

Anyway, what do you think about the trade-off between velos and diverse repertoires?

 

I mean this with as much kindness as I can muster: maybe the internet isn't for you

[Guest]

38 minutes ago, Derwood said:

 

I mean this with as much kindness as I can muster: maybe the internet isn't for you

Anyway, these winter meetings were very quiet. Jed left away with his wonderful money, and we got two pitchers... what other trades do you think we'll have by January? Honestly, it's Jed's fault that the MM is less than it is going to be...

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Geographyhater8888]

4 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

All right... well, I'm going to put this behind me, and please do this as well. You remind me of my dad for some reason. I'm not going to post any more about this, OK? I don't know if you believe in Jungian cognitive typing (I don't), but I'm surprisingly a NiTeFiSe (INTJ) and not an INFJ. I'm a softie on here but not in the real world...

Anyway, these winter meetings were very quiet. Jed left away with his wonderful money, and we got two pitchers... what other trades do you think we'll have by January? Honestly, it's Jed's fault that the MM is less than it is going to be...

And don't get me wrong--you're awesome. (I like the GIFs, by the way. And when I commited spelling/grammar errors, you were the first to notice. 🙂 )

The middle paragraph is the only thing people care about in here. No one will make it that far after reading the first sentence either. 

[Bertz]

Mostly convinced the Cubs are either only in on FA starters to try and hold leverage in trade or they're okay spending a little more than we're used to.  You pretty much can't get a decent FA starter for less than $20M, and while you can *technically* square that with treating the LT as a red line Occam's Razor is clearly indicating the opposite.

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The middle paragraph is the only thing people care about in here. No one will make it that far after reading the first sentence either. 

I have a question about post-winter meetings for you: Do you think we'll walk away with Imai? And terms/length of the contract, if so? Or is Edward Cabrera a better fit?

[Bertz]

I was reminded this AM that Murakami's posting was earlier than the two other big time NPB guys.  Murakami's posting window closes next Monday the 22nd.  So realistically he probably needs to agree with a team by next Friday/Saturday?  Kind of wild how quiet it's been with him given how that deadline is coming up.

[Dfan25]

That Kelly deal smells like trouble for the Cubs and their limited budget . If a 37 year old is getting 20 per year , the chances of the them getting a top tier SP went down in my opinion . 
 

 

Edited December 14, 2025 by Dfan25

[Dfan25]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I was reminded this AM that Murakami's posting was earlier than the two other big time NPB guys.  Murakami's posting window closes next Monday the 22nd.  So realistically he probably needs to agree with a team by next Friday/Saturday?  Kind of wild how quiet it's been with him given how that deadline is coming up.

The Korean 3B deadline is also in the coming week I believe . 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

The Korean 3B deadline is also in the coming week I believe . 

Good call.  Assuming he makes similar money to Kim who the Dodgers signed last year I'd be really in on him

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

That Kelly deal smells like trouble for the Cubs and their limited budget . If a 37 year old is getting 20 per year , the chances of the them getting a top tier SP went down in my opinion . 
 

 

The flip side of that is that Dylan Cease was supposed to set the high-end of the market and with his deferrals, the real-world-AAV is under $27m. So I think everything in the middle is pretty much what we expected; the Cubs will probably have to pay $20m-$24m, but I don't think anyone thought King, Imai or anyone they'd be in on at that level is really very different. 

It could push them to the trade market, though, if we're that worried.

[Rcal10]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

The flip side of that is that Dylan Cease was supposed to set the high-end of the market and with his deferrals, the real-world-AAV is under $27m. So I think everything in the middle is pretty much what we expected; the Cubs will probably have to pay $20m-$24m, but I don't think anyone thought King, Imai or anyone they'd be in on at that level is really very different. 

It could push them to the trade market, though, if we're that worried.

Agreed. I don’t think the Cubs thought they could get King or Imai under $20M a year. Maybe each is closer to $23M. I think the years are the bigger hang up. Maybe King for 4 and Imai for 7. That is, IMO the bigger issue. Will they go that long for either? 
Or they need to make a trade for a pitcher. 

[Dfan25]

Will Sammon and Heyman follow this account btw .  No mention of the Cubs. Maybe he is just focused on the AL east teams with his mentions , so let’s see what happens 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Will Sammon and Heyman follow this account btw .  No mention of the Cubs. Maybe he is just focused on the AL east teams with his mentions , so let’s see what happens 

Carrabis works for NESN and I don't know the other guy but he's listed as being in Massachusetts.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Carrabis works for NESN and I don't know the other guy but he's listed as being in Massachusetts.

Interesting to see the Cubs not as involved there (based on the report) as you'd assume....

[Dfan25]

Regardless of what happens , it’s nice to finally see and hear about movement on the SP market 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Interesting to see the Cubs not as involved there (based on the report) as you'd assume....

Have to hope they are all in on Imai. But then Jed can’t get scared away by the price or the length of the contract. 

[Derwood]

$20M AAV for a 37 year old pitcher is kinda wild. 

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Interesting to see the Cubs not as involved there (based on the report) as you'd assume....

I take it as they have an AL East-centric view of the world.  But yeah to me Michael King is in this awkward spot of being the least exciting of the fun arms but the best of the consolation prizes.  So hopefully this is a sign we're locked into something on the higher end and we'll get some resolution soon.

FWIW Jesse Rogers at the meetings said something like "gun to my head they end up with King."

[Rcal10]

If they don’t end up with a FA pitcher and end up trading Shaw for Gore, Cabrera or Ryan and then sign Keller or Fairbanks and Okamato, how would that off season look? I don’t see Bregman as an option in any scenerio. Same with Bichette. But if they did trade for one of those pitchers they should have enough money for at least one more good pen arm and also Okamato. 

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The flip side of that is that Dylan Cease was supposed to set the high-end of the market and with his deferrals, the real-world-AAV is under $27m. So I think everything in the middle is pretty much what we expected; the Cubs will probably have to pay $20m-$24m, but I don't think anyone thought King, Imai or anyone they'd be in on at that level is really very different. 

It could push them to the trade market, though, if we're that worried.

🙄 This again?

You don't seem to understand Jed at all. This will likely not mobilize Jed at all; he probably already has an internal strategy, and that most likely involves Imai. You're missing the point when you're talking about Cease... ceaselessly. I'm not an expert on prices, and I don't pretend to be, but the analysis is off-point.

Likely scenario: The Cubs will sign Imai for around 5 years. Why? Because he's more of a temporary stabilizer, as @ToolDRTmentioned. He will likely not be as much of a cornerstone on the team, nor would Jed permit such longevity and money--ever heard of Jed Hoyer, bud?

Rebuttals, anyone?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

If they don’t end up with a FA pitcher and end up trading Shaw for Gore, Cabrera or Ryan and then sign Keller or Fairbanks and Okamato, how would that off season look? I don’t see Bregman as an option in any scenerio. Same with Bichette. But if they did trade for one of those pitchers they should have enough money for at least one more good pen arm and also Okamato. 

Agreed. I'm leaning towards Cabrera--Gore would be a good alternative, but Cabrera has a higher repertoire and has two high-velo pitches, and he's more even in terms of his portfolio. I highly doubt Ryan; he relies too heavily (51% on his four-seam, which is roughly 90 MPH). But Cabrera, conversely, is way more even in terms of pitchers (26%, 24%, 21%, 17%, 13%), and his changeup seems really valuable for what the team wants at this point.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I take it as they have an AL East-centric view of the world.  But yeah to me Michael King is in this awkward spot of being the least exciting of the fun arms but the best of the consolation prizes.  So hopefully this is a sign we're locked into something on the higher end and we'll get some resolution soon.

FWIW Jesse Rogers at the meetings said something like "gun to my head they end up with King."

Yeah, heard that one when he was on, Waddy and Silva the other day (I think?). I'm fine with the Cubs ending up with Michael King, as well. He hits a lot of markers with Cubs pitching recently; including the lack of truly a long term deal. In today's money he kind of sits around what Jameson Taillon signed a few years. 

[imb]

36 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The flip side of that is that Dylan Cease was supposed to set the high-end of the market and with his deferrals, the real-world-AAV is under $27m. So I think everything in the middle is pretty much what we expected; the Cubs will probably have to pay $20m-$24m, but I don't think anyone thought King, Imai or anyone they'd be in on at that level is really very different. 

It could push them to the trade market, though, if we're that worried.

yeah, the kelly deal feels more like the salary floor for a capable starter more than something that's gonna push the mid-tier targets into higher prices

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, imb said:

yeah, the kelly deal feels more like the salary floor for a capable starter more than something that's gonna push the mid-tier targets into higher prices

Let me explain why I believe this is fundamentally incorrect. 

There's another user on here who I think needs a basic lesson of economics and how they apply to baseball. (@imb, you're at least funny, so I'll pardon you.) @Dfan25, you're completely right--that's how demand works. If one player (Kelly) has a value of a certain amount, that means that the demand curve is shifted to the right, reflecting an increase in price. If there's more demand for the aforementioned players (King, Imai, etc.), guess what happens--an increase in price! And if you argue that this is comparing an experienced starter to someone like Imai, I beg to differ.

I would argue that Imai is a capable starter, or at least a capable No. 2. He and Kelly are actually grossly similar in terms of their utility, I would argue, because Kelly's experience is a counterpart to Imai's raw power, but both are INCREDIBLY divided in terms of their repertoires. You can't ignore this similarity. They're simply quite similar and have a similar dynamic. 

This will inevitably raise the price. As someone who's not even an economist, as the demand for starting pitchers increases, that means that there will be less consumer (organizational) surplus. It's basic math. 

 

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

 

I mean this with as much kindness as I can muster: maybe the internet isn't for you

Don't worry--I'm back now, back to baseball. 

Now, I'm trying to explain how as the demand for a certain type of pitcher increases, the price increases. Seems like a no-brainer, right?