College Football - Championship Week

[Andy]

Sun Belt Championship Game (7 pm Friday, ESPN)

Troy at (25) James Madison

 

American Championship Game (8 pm Friday, ABC)

(24) North Texas at (20) Tulane

 

Mountain West Championship Game (8 pm Friday, FOX)

UNLV at Boise State

 

Conference USA Championship Game (8 pm Friday, CBSSN)

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State

Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington, TX (12 pm, ABC)

(11) BYU vs (4) Texas Tech

 

MAC Championship Game in Detroit (12 pm, ESPN)

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan

 

SEC Championship Game in Atlanta (4 pm, ABC)

(3) Georgia vs (9) Alabama

 

Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis (8 pm, FOX)

(2) Indiana vs (1) Ohio State

 

ACC Championship Game in Charlotte (8 pm, ABC)

Duke vs (17) Virginia

Dec. 13
Army vs Navy - in Baltimore (3 pm, CBS)

Edited December 3, 2025 by Andy

[Andy]

So the Vegas odds telegraphed last night's committee-rankings move of Alabama jumping Notre Dame.

Bama probably should have (at least by resume) been ranked ahead of ND to begin with, but that they made that move after Bama barely escaped crappy Auburn and ND routed another bad team made it pretty transparent why the move was made. Basically the committee has now ensured that Alabama won't be trap-doored out of the playoff by a bid thief (BYU) if it comes to pass this time; they were last year.

The only reason I'm not panicking that the committee is going to invoke head to head and vault Miami past ND is that those same Vegas odds don't seem to think it will occur.

It looks like the current plan is:

If chalk holds and UGA/TT win - Bama probably falls one spot behind ND and both teams remain in the field. This would also avert the rematches that are currently slotted, which isn't supposed to be considered, but come on. It would be ND at OU and Bama at A&M.

If BYU wins - BYU bumps ND out and the rest of the field probably stays the same regardless.

I also think if Duke beats UVA, the committee will dump ND out for Miami to placate the ACC because them not having any teams in the playoff would be a total embarrassment for them.

Not that I didn't already think this, but man just get the BCS computers out and have them set the field. This whole committee thing has for some time been an obvious cover for the powers that be doing whatever they want.

[Soul]

This Lane Kiffin thing is cray cray.  Dude leaves wreckage in his wake wherever he goes.  I’ve heard rumors his dream job is the Cowboys.  I can’t think of a more fitting destination for him.  Also, kudos to Rebels fans for figuring out what was happening by monitoring flight track data.  That’s creative.

[Old Style]

1 hour ago, Soul said:

This Lane Kiffin thing is cray cray.  Dude leaves wreckage in his wake wherever he goes.  I’ve heard rumors his dream job is the Cowboys.  I can’t think of a more fitting destination for him.  Also, kudos to Rebels fans for figuring out what was happening by monitoring flight track data.  That’s creative.

That’s nothing new. Flight trackers have been used for well over a decade in this manner. Probably closer to two. 

[cwood218]

Sources: Penn State focusing search on Iowa State's Campbell

It looks like PSU may have found someone to go to the prom with.

Or maybe Campbell is just trying to get a pay raise from ISU like 37 other coaches have done this year.

[CubinNY]

Go Broncos!

[CubColtPacer]

So with BYU officially out, the Notre Dame/Miami discourse will hit peak levels.  We will see if Alabama joins that discussion soon.

With Oregon sitting at 5, I don't see any way that either Ohio State or Indiana doesn't get a bye.  I'm sure there will be a small push if Indiana gets destroyed, but even then I don't see them slipping past Oregon.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Alabama/Georgia's ranking with an Alabama win.  I can't imagine Alabama jumping 5 spots unless they have just an utterly dominant game, and even then I have to squint.  I would think you would have three Big 10 teams get byes at that point.

And then the Duke situation tonight is a fun little subplot, definitely rooting for them.

[cwood218]

Baring a miracle in the last 7 minutes BYU is out of the playoff. 

EDIT: beat me to it.

Edited December 6, 2025 by cwood218

[bukie]

I remain convinced that the SEC has a bunch of good teams, but no great teams. I hate that the committee somehow made this about ND/Miami and not 6 SEC teams that are varying levels of good.

I have a feeling that if Duke wins, they'll put Miami in so there's an ACC team in the playoff.  If Virginia wins, they'll put ND in.

 

What I'd like to see is having ND and Miami both in, 3 B1G teams and TT with byes, Tulane and JMU in (I think they're both better options than Virginia too). 4 spots left for the SEC, and you could easily say A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss belong, and then choose your 4th between Bama, OK, TX, and Vandy (obv if Bama wins the convo is simple)

[Derwood]

Penn State fires a guy who was 15-28 against the top 25 and replaces him with someone who was 16-27. 
 

Upgrade?

Edited December 6, 2025 by Derwood

[Rex Buckingham]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Penn State fires a guy who was 15-28 against the top 25 and replaces him with someone who was 16-27. 
 

Upgrade?

Fair to say the general talent level at PSU is a bit higher than at ISU. So essentially, he performed at Franklin's level with worse players. 

[CubColtPacer]

I'm watching Alabama down at halftime and thinking this.

The conference championship argument is kind of like the Texas argument when playing at Ohio State.  It's fine to say that people are overrating a loss and that a loss in those circumstances should only count a little.  But they have to count some.

In Alabama's case, where the margin between them and ND was so close in the room the past few weeks, to where Alabama's close win over Auburn was the thing that put them ahead by a hair, any kind of loss should put them behind ND.  Miami is a different argument, although I would say Alabama should likely fall behind them too, especially if the loss doesn't end up being one where Alabama is driving for the win at the end.

You only have 12-13 data points.  Each one has to matter, even though these tough games should have way more upside than downside.

[soccer10k]

2 hours ago, bukie said:

I remain convinced that the SEC has a bunch of good teams, but no great teams. I hate that the committee somehow made this about ND/Miami and not 6 SEC teams that are varying levels of good.

Doesn't have to be an either or. Can just lump them all in together.

[soccer10k]

Indiana, OSU and Texas Tech are locks for byes. Georgia gets a bye with a win (and maybe a close loss). Oregon probably gets the bye if Bama wins.

Georgia, Oregon, aTm, Ole Miss ACC/G5 and a G5 team are in.

I think OU gets in regardless of the Bama result so that's 10.

I think if Bama loses but keeps it close, they shouldn't be penalized. But if this continues the way the first half went and they lose something like 31-7, I'm fine penalizing them for it. I also think Miami should get in over Notre Dame. The resume's aren't that much different and Miami beat them. That has to matter. Though if Bama is left out they might both get in anyway.

[bukie]

Here's what I think WILL happen:

- If Duke wins tonight, JMU and Tulane will get into the CFP, and the committee will put Miami in so there is ACC representation. If Virginia wins, it'll be Virgina and Tulane with ND getting in.

- Georgia will get the 2 seed with a win, and the OSU-Indiana loser will get the 4 seed.

- If Georgia blows this, the committee will move Bama all the way up to the 4 seed because reasons.

Here's what I think SHOULD happen:

- Indiana-Ohio State should be 1-2 regardless of tonight's result.

- ND and Miami are the best 2 loss teams by most empirical ratings, they should both get in.

- Tulane and JMU are better than either team in the ACC championship, so they should both get in no matter what the result of that game is.

- Georgia and Texas Tech should get the other byes due to winning conferences, but I think TT is the better team and should be #3.

- Oregon, Texas A&M and Ole Miss should be locks. Last spot should be up for discussion between OK, Bama, Vandy and Texas. 4 teams should be plenty fair for the conference. 

[soccer10k]

6 minutes ago, bukie said:

Here's what I think WILL happen:

- Georgia will get the 2 seed with a win, and the OSU-Indiana loser will get the 4 seed.

Here's what I think SHOULD happen:

- Indiana-Ohio State should be 1-2 regardless of tonight's result.

I hope regardless of the result of OSU-Indiana, that the loser gets either the 2 or the 3 seed so they're on opposite sides of the bracket. Neutral site so it's not like whoever gets the 3 seed would have to play at the 2 seed (like in the FCS playoffs).

[Derwood]

I want Alabama to lose by 50

[CubColtPacer]

Current fanduel odds late 3rd quarter of the SEC title game (these have been bouncing around like crazy the last couple quarters):

Notre Dame:   -1200 yes, +680 no
Alabama:  -300 yes, +235 no
Miami:  +146 yes, -180 no
James Madison:  +152 yes, -168 no
Texas:  +3000 yes
Duke:  +5500 yes

So mainly status quo.  Alabama's odds have slipped by a decent bit since the start of the game but people still think that Miami is the one left out, while Notre Dame's odds have just climbed to a huge number since the start of the day.

[soccer10k]

Is Bama's O-Line awful? They can't run the ball and Simpson has very little time to throw when he drops back.

[bukie]

Neither offense is showing much today. Georgia has taken advantage of two turnovers.

[cwood218]

So basically the current 1-8 OSU to Oklahoma are in. Tulane and Virginia/JMU make 10.

Final two spots are between ...

Notre Dame

Miami

Alabama

[Derwood]

Mendoza hurt on the first play of the game. WELP

[Andy]

Vegas odds much higher on Notre Dame than Alabama. Given the odds swung Bama's way 12 hours before their jumping ND on Tuesday was revealed, that helps.

But I agree with bukie that UVA needs to get the job done for me to feel comfortable. The committee could just blatantly screw over JMU in that case, I guess.

[cwood218]

My only hope was that Indiana didn't get embarrassed anything else would just be gravy. 

[Thurman Merman]

12 minutes ago, cwood218 said:

My only hope was that Indiana didn't get embarrassed anything else would just be gravy. 

I haven't watched any Indiana football this year but Mendoza is legit.