Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

My understanding is that in Japan Christmas and Christmas Eve are fairly big, while New Years is huge.  So between that and the logistics of all this stuff I'd suspect it's fairly likely he signs by Christmas and it would be a major shock if he makes it through next weekend unsigned.

Christmas is a lover's holiday in Japan like Valentine's day here. Why they're obsessed with KFC on Christmas, I couldn't tell you though. New Year's is the big holiday in Japan.

[mk49]

36 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Christmas is a lover's holiday in Japan like Valentine's day here. Why they're obsessed with KFC on Christmas, I couldn't tell you though. New Year's is the big holiday in Japan.

I didn't know the KFC thing in Japan, but KFC must have done great marketing.

[Tryptamine]

https://x.com/theyanksonly/status/2001795095629295718?s=20

[Dfan25]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

https://x.com/theyanksonly/status/2001795095629295718?s=20

Interesting , Phillies are a big threat however 

[Bertz]

26 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Interesting , Phillies are a big threat however 

I know Dombrowski loves good starting pitching, and he's got the rings to get the benefit of the doubt, but man putting all your money towards another SP when your outfield is that bad would be a really questionable choice.

If the Yankees are truly out I feel really good about the Cubs chances, though the Mets and Giants lurk.  Mets claim they won't go a bunch of years and Giants are crying poor, but either could easily be a smokescreen.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I know Dombrowski loves good starting pitching, and he's got the rings to get the benefit of the doubt, but man putting all your money towards another SP when your outfield is that bad would be a really questionable choice.

If the Yankees are truly out I feel really good about the Cubs chances, though the Mets and Giants lurk.  Mets claim they won't go a bunch of years and Giants are crying poor, but either could easily be a smokescreen.

I really like the Cubs chances if this is true. And I feel like we might be 48 hours or less to this wrapping up.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

I don’t get it. He says they aren’t likely to sign him but then says to stay tuned. Stay tuned for what? Him signing somewhere else soon? The Yankees making a different transaction soon?

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

I don’t get it. He says they aren’t likely to sign him but then says to stay tuned. Stay tuned for what? Him signing somewhere else soon? The Yankees making a different transaction soon?

Yeah I took it as the Yankees are out on Imai but will be doing something else of substance (Bellinger, I assume?) instead.  Cashman is pretty good at that, last year I think he pivoted from Soto to Fried and Devin Williams within a few days.

Edited December 19, 2025 by Bertz

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

I really like the Cubs chances if this is true. And I feel like we might be 48 hours or less to this wrapping up.

Two weeks ago, I thought we had less than 5% chance of signing Imai.  Now, a lot higher, more like 30~40%, but I try not to expect too much, because I don't want to be disappointed.   

[Bertz]

IF this makes it across the finish line and IF we hold our assumptions about payroll, the team would be mostly tapped out after this.  There'd be enough for several $1-2M moves, presumably a backup infielder and several relievers, but that's about it.

Would be curious to see if they'd indeed pack it in or if there'd be any substantial move(s) from there.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I took it as the Yankees are out on Imai but will be doing something else of substance (Bellinger, I assume?) instead.  Cashman is pretty good at that, last year I think he pivoted from Soto to Fried and Devin Williams within a few days.

Yeah; this only makes me nervous that the Yankees are going to steal him before the Cubs demonstrate sufficient interest... it's Cub paralysis that will ultimately destroy us all. That's why the meetings were so quiet.

[mul21]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

IF this makes it across the finish line and IF we hold our assumptions about payroll, the team would be mostly tapped out after this.  There'd be enough for several $1-2M moves, presumably a backup infielder and several relievers, but that's about it.

Would be curious to see if they'd indeed pack it in or if there'd be any substantial move(s) from there.

If they do this and it puts them close, I'll be very surprised if they don't go over the first level CBT.

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, mul21 said:

If they do this and it puts them close, I'll be very surprised if they don't go over the first level CBT.

Really? Not me. I think if they got Imai and were sitting around $16M under the high spending would be done. Maybe they give out a $5M contact to a pen arm or bench bat, but that isn’t. I expect them to be $7M to $10M under. I absolutely understand the arguments why they should go over and why this year is different. But until they actually do it I can’t be surprised they don’t. 

[CubinNY]

I would imagine if they lose the bidding, they will have to turn to a trade for a pitcher, which (IMO) isn't the worst outcome. 

[Tryptamine]

35 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I would imagine if they lose the bidding, they will have to turn to a trade for a pitcher, which (IMO) isn't the worst outcome. 

Given the cost of Shane Baz, we're all gonna be pretty unhappy with the price. I'm not saying don't do it, but the cost is going to be higher, likely a good bit higher than we anticipate.

[CubUgly]

4 hours ago, mul21 said:

If they do this and it puts them close, I'll be very surprised if they don't go over the first level CBT.

Really?  What makes you think this?  I think at first the excuse was Covid and of recent years the upcoming CBA and impending work stoppage as reasons not to exceed the first level and I fully expect that they will stick with that whether it is a legit reason or not it's how they are operating now.

Will that change after the new collective bargaining agreement, or will this be their M.O. even after that?  Time will tell. 

[Dfan25]

I think that Bob Nightendale tweet about Gallen and the Cubs will end up right  Multi year at 22 per  year . 

Edited December 19, 2025 by Dfan25

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Really?  What makes you think this?  I think at first the excuse was Covid and of recent years the upcoming CBA and impending work stoppage as reasons not to exceed the first level and I fully expect that they will stick with that whether it is a legit reason or not it's how they are operating now.

Will that change after the new collective bargaining agreement, or will this be their M.O. even after that?  Time will tell. 

Because there's just no way to get even near the CBT for 2027 with all the money they have coming off the books.  Therefore, it makes sense to spend the money now on a longer term deal, be over the first level of the CBT in 2026 and then you drop back under in 2027 so you're not a repeat offender.

[CubUgly]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Because there's just no way to get even near the CBT for 2027 with all the money they have coming off the books.  Therefore, it makes sense to spend the money now on a longer term deal, be over the first level of the CBT in 2026 and then you drop back under in 2027 so you're not a repeat offender.

It makes sense to me, but not sure it makes sense to them.  I hope so though. 

[CubUgly]

5 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I think that Bob Nightendale tweet about Gallen and the Cubs will end up been right  Multi year at 22 per  year . 

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes - but I hope not - I'm just not bullish on Gallen. 

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I think that Bob Nightendale tweet about Gallen and the Cubs will end up been right  Multi year at 22 per  year . 

[Dfan25]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Yeah , and they seem to be penny pinching as well , to get to that point . How sad would that be . 

[Dfan25]

Jesse Rogers commenting on King / Imai and the Cubs . Doesn’t sound all that optimistic about Imai 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2025 by Dfan25

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Jesse Rogers commenting on King / Imai and the Cubs . Doesn’t sound all that optimistic about Imai 

 

 

IIRC, Jesse Rogers was also the guy throwing water on the Cubs/Tucker trade talks, too. Not shutting him down entirely here, but he does have a track record of being the negative nancy of group at times.

[Dfan25]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

IIRC, Jesse Rogers was also the guy throwing water on the Cubs/Tucker trade talks, too. Not shutting him down entirely here, but he does have a track record of being the negative nancy of group at times.

Maybe he did at some point , but I do remember him during the winter meetings saying Tucker to the Cubs smoke was real .
 

Thing with Rogers is that sometimes I am not sure if what he says is his opinion or based on what he is hearing .  I do think he is reliable with the info he gets .