Cubs-Padres Game Three Thread: Sudden Death Baseball

[Brandon Glick]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Padres pitching dominated Cubs hitters on Wednesday, forcing a winner-take-all Game 3 in Chicago. The starters are right-handers Jameson Taillon for Chicago and Yu Darvish for San Diego. In 2025, Taillon posted a 3.68 ERA, and Darvish a 5.38 as an injury-plagued season limited him to only 15 starts. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) tells a different story, though; Taillon has a 2025 FIP of 5.00, and Darvish has a 4.83 FIP. This game is unlikely to become a pitcher's duel, at least until both teams reach into their respective bullpens.

Cubs Bullpen Usage
Game 1 (Tuesday), Chicago’s relief corps delivered 4 2/3 perfect innings behind starter Matthew Boyd. The sequence was Daniel Palencia for 1 2/3, then Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Kittredge, and Brad Keller covering the final three innings. In Game 2 (Wednesday), the Cubs used an opener approach. Andrew Kittredge handled the 1st, followed by Shota Imanaga for bulk innings. After that, lefty Caleb Thielbar, righty Colin Rea, and lefty Taylor Rogers finished it off; their batters faced were Kittredge 5, Imanaga 17, Thielbar 4, Rea 6, Rogers 3.  Kittredge is the only Cubs pitcher to appear in both games so far, and he is likely out for Thursday's game as a result. 

Padres Bullpen Usage
Game 1, San Diego followed starter Nick Pivetta with Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller, and Jeremiah Estrada. In Game 2, Dylan Cease started and worked 3 2/3. Adrian Morejon covered 2 1/3 innings and threw 33 pitches, Mason Miller struck out the first five batters he faced and threw 27 pitches, and Robert Suarez recorded a four-out save to close a 3-0 win. It's likely that both Morejon and Miller will be unavailable for Thursday's game, but given the nature of the situation, it might be all hands on deck for Mike Shildt.

Padres Batters Vs Jameson Taillon

Jameson Taillon vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Xander Bogaerts	R	28	28	6	3	0	0	2	0	5	.214	.214	.321	.536	0	0	0	0	1
2	Ryan O'Hearn	L	17	16	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	.188	.235	.188	.423	0	0	0	0	1
3	Martín Maldonado	R	16	14	4	1	0	1	1	1	2	.286	.375	.571	.946	0	0	1	1	1
4	Luis Arráez	L	13	13	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.231	.231	.231	.462	0	0	0	0	0
5	Jose Iglesias	R	13	13	7	2	0	1	3	0	1	.538	.538	.923	1.462	0	0	0	0	0
6	Gavin Sheets	L	11	10	3	1	0	0	0	1	3	.300	.364	.400	.764	0	0	0	0	0
7	Fernando Tatis Jr.	R	6	6	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	.333	.333	.833	1.167	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manny Machado	R	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.200	.000	.200	0	0	0	0	0
9	Jake Cronenworth	L	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
10	Freddy Fermin	R	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 10/2/2025.

Cubs Batters Vs Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Justin Turner	R	27	24	5	1	0	1	1	3	10	.208	.296	.375	.671	0	0	0	0	0
2	Dansby Swanson	R	22	19	3	1	0	0	1	3	6	.158	.273	.211	.483	0	0	1	0	0
3	Ian Happ	B	14	13	2	0	0	0	2	1	6	.154	.214	.154	.368	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nico Hoerner	R	11	10	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	.200	.273	.400	.673	0	0	0	0	0
5	Carson Kelly	R	10	10	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	.300	.300	.300	.600	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kyle Tucker	L	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.167	.167	.167	.333	0	0	0	0	0
7	Seiya Suzuki	R	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	2	.250	.400	.500	.900	0	0	0	0	0
8	Michael Busch	L	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
9	Pete Crow-Armstrong	L	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 10/2/2025.

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[Brandon Glick]

It all comes down to this, folks.

I know who I'm rooting for.

[Outshined_One]

[Brian707]

[gflore34]

I suspect Shildt is going to have a very quick hook with Darvish, Cubs have to get to him early.

[ILMindState]

The Cubs when they put up a 5 spot in the 1st inning against Yu Darvish.

[Neuby]

I'd be shocked if they let Darvish go more than 3 innings

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Come on Cobs, I know there's some runs in there.

[gflore34]

12 minutes ago, Neuby said:

I'd be shocked if they let Darvish go more than 3 innings

At most, once through the lineup, maybe, the Cubs can make all academic by scoring some runs.  A horsefeathers ton of runs would be nice.

Edited October 2, 2025 by gflore34

[gflore34]

Got revenge on the Giants for 1989, now, it's the Padres turn for 1984.  I remember Gary Templeton talking some thrash after the Cubs went up 2-0, time to beat these fucks and their horsefeathers stained uniforms.

[Bruno7481]

I’m more excited and looking forward to watching the Cubs in a meaningful game than I am nervous about the outcome.  70/30 I’d say.  It is nice to feel this again after years of irrelevance.  

Having said that, that might flip as soon as the Padres threaten in the first inning!

Don’t want to be a broken record, but yes, the Cubs need to score early.  It would be nice to take the lead first and play from ahead for a change.

[Old Style]

So the death will be sudden? That’s better than suffering through 9 innings. 

[Bertz]

I think the big questions today are:

- How deep does Shildt let Darvish go?  I think he definitely doesn't get twice through the order unscathed but once maybe he can bob and weave enough

- Do Darvish or Taillon get any extra juice from being able to shorten up?

- Are Miller or Morejon available?  The answer *should* be no, but the Padres have an almost pathological need to fail the marshmallow test.  And this is probably their last run (mayyybe next year)

- Does Craig make the lineup as dangerous as possible for Darvish, knowing it might make the Padres' bullpen have an easier time in the back half of the game?

- Darvish is one of the worst pitchers in the league at holding runners, but Fermin's got a great arm.  So is this game a track meet or played more straight up?

[Saldabomber]

23 minutes ago, Neuby said:

I'd be shocked if they let Darvish go more than 3 innings

if the bats play the same way they did yesterday they could have him go for 5 until they bring in Morejon, Miller and Suarez to finish us off. 

[Outshined_One]

40 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

The Cubs when they put up a 5 spot in the 1st inning against Yu Darvish.

I'd rather Darvish pull a Seth Rollins on the Padres.

[squally1313]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

- Does Craig make the lineup as dangerous as possible for Darvish, knowing it might make the Padres' bullpen have an easier time in the back half of the game?

Looking at Ballesteros, McGuire, and Castro on the bench and trying to figure out a way to get them in there and not really coming up with any solutions. Castro was markedly worse against RHPs this year (though for his career he's pretty split neutral), and he's a step down defensively from Shaw. Do you start McGuire knowing you're going to pull him three innings in, and if so does that take away any chance of Ballesteros PHing down the stretch?

[Bruno7481]

I fully expect Morejon and Miller to pitch if they need them to.  I don’t think they are off limits at all.

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Saldabomber said:

if the bats play the same way they did yesterday they could have him go for 5 until they bring in Morejon, Miller and Suarez to finish us off. 

Darvish doesn't have the stuff of Pivetta or Cease anymore, it's mainly about spin with location for him.

[Bertz]

27 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Looking at Ballesteros, McGuire, and Castro on the bench and trying to figure out a way to get them in there and not really coming up with any solutions. Castro was markedly worse against RHPs this year (though for his career he's pretty split neutral), and he's a step down defensively from Shaw. Do you start McGuire knowing you're going to pull him three innings in, and if so does that take away any chance of Ballesteros PHing down the stretch?

I think I would do Castro for Shaw but otherwise play it straight up to start.  Then I'd be very willing to PH Ballesteros as soon as a good PH opp comes up knowing that I can bring Shaw in at 3rd and shift Castro wherever needed.

If this is a regular season game, even a relatively important one, I probably start McGuire over Kelly.  But here to your point the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze for what's likely one AB.

[chibears55]

Happ, Tucker, and PCA need to go off today

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I just walked around Petco and put a hex on the team. Tuck is having a big day today.

[Outshined_One]

Can we also discuss the fact that Matt Shaw's sole offensive contribution to date was a sac bunt?  I (vaguely) get the hate for everyone else, but the guy's avoided criticism around these parts so far.

[Bertz]

Craig playing it straight

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

4 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Can we also discuss the fact that Matt Shaw's sole offensive contribution to date was a sac bunt?  I (vaguely) get the hate for everyone else, but the guy's avoided criticism around these parts so far.

Matt Shaw. Has escaped criticism. Around here?

[Outshined_One]

1 minute ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Matt Shaw. Has escaped criticism. Around here?

People are crapping on PCA and Happ for not hitting, but he's been as bad as them without anyone commenting on it.