National (Alvarez) vs Cubs (Pomeranz): 9/7/25, 1:20pm

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Brewers hitters have been about 35% better than the Cubs' in the 2nd half and better than the Cubs were in the 1st half as well. They will probably win the division by 10+ games. 

[BKHoo]

Is PCA playing tomorrow?

[Stratos]

This is the 3rd season in a row where our top reliever or SP (all homegrown) went down with an arm injury in early Sept.

If things follow exactly how the last 2 seasons went, Palencia will have a stint on the IL and come back in late Sept, then suck early next season and go down with a serious injury needing surgery to the same part of arm he hurt in Sept.

I don't even know how CC can sit there and call it "shoulder tightness".   That's a pretty severe reaction to "tightness".   Pain seemed to be involved unless Palencia was overreacting.  I don't even know why he was left in the game.

This team is limping across the finish line.  They're going to need a heap of luck to pitch and play well throughout Oct because they've been setting themselves up like a house of cards.

Edited September 8, 2025 by Stratos

[soccer10k]

5 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Look man, I made one post today about how the 81-62 that is 10 games clear of a playoff spot is not a terrible team. There are dozens of negative posts from the same people (typically people that have showed up in the last two years) every time we give up a run. The guy who has like 100% negative posts and has called out Palencia for being mentally weak and Ben brown for ‘not putting in the work’ or whatever the ****** comment was, both totally baselessly, in particular set me off. 
 

the other teams absolutely matter because for the cubs to lose like so many people here are clearly waiting for with baited breath, other teams have to beat them. 90% of the complaints rehashed here can be applied to all the other playoff teams, and ultimately someone has to win here. 
 

the team absolutely has flaws, the trade deadline and the end of the offseason were botched in very critical ways, and the lack of pitching depth is probably going to die them in when we turn the ball over to Ryan brasier or whatever in the fifth inning of game 2. Losing 2/3 to the nationals while Tucker and PCA are pretty voluntarily out in a spot in the season where the leadership has clearly prioritized rest and health (because we’re more than comfortably in a playoff spot) is absolutely not an indictment of anything meaningful, and it certainly doesn’t mean the team is garbage and awful and has no chance of doing anything in the playoffs. 3 months is more relevant than 9 games, and 5 months is more relevant than 3 months. 

I'm aware that the overly negative people suck also. I already said that. Personally it's very easy for me to scroll right past their stupidity. But it really bothers me to have someone who generally appears to be pretty intelligent and logical about all things baseball trying to use a a 5-4 stretch against 3 of the worst 6 teams in the majors (which you tried to do with your point about the latest homestand) as part of your proof that this team is still good. Especially when he pops in at the end of a lot of losses to try and say how everything is still great.

The other teams don't matter in this case. I'm evaluating the Cubs. I'm aware that they're aren't any great teams this year. That doesn't mean we have to say the best few teams are great.

I am willing to discount the first couple months because it was clearly a hot streak by the offense. When you score runs like one of the best 30 offenses for 2 months, sorry, but that likely isn't sustainable. And they haven't come close to continuing to do that. Arbitrary end points because I have to pick a date, but OPS pre June 1 vs after June 1, Carson Kelly is 270 points worse, Tucker is 105 points worse, Suzuki 196 points worse, PCA 130 points worse, Amaya (.819 OPS) is injured. Happ is 71 points better, Dansby basically the same, Shaw basically the same (though much better since the ASB), Busch basically the same.

We know Tucker got hurt at some point and we also don't know how much that affected him since he hit well for a bit after the one injury we know about (unless I missed something). But he also might not be healthy the rest of the year. Kelly's hitting wasn't going to continue. Maybe the league adjusted a bit to PCA's free swinging, I don't know. His July was great but his August has been abysmal. Both aren't likely to continue. Seems unlikely it would take the league 4 months to figure a guy out but maybe they did. Suzuki's numbers overall are now fairly close to his career numbers. Amaya is still injured and who knows when he'll be back. I'm not sure there's anyone in there where you can be confident they'll go back to hitting like they did in April/May, and certainly not most or all of them.

Those wins are banked and they can't be taken away. But if I'm evaluating how the Cubs are as a whole, yes, I'm going to discount an unsustainable hot streak by the offense. It's no different than how nobody really thinks the Brewers are some 100 win juggernaut. Sure they went 39-9. Those wins are banked also. They're on pace for 100 wins. But nobody in their right mind expects them to play at that pace again, right? Well, I don't expect the Cubs to score runs like one of the best 30 offenses ever. And guess what, when they stopped doing that, they went from playing at a high 90's win pace to a mid 80's win pace. Which again, will still get them into the playoffs and will still give them a shot to make and win the World Series. But that doesn't mean we have to be happy about how they've played for 3 months or use 9 game samples against shitty teams to sugar coat things and make it seem like nothing is wrong.

You got a legitimate reason why things are going to turn around, I'd love to hear it. But 9 game samples aren't it.

Edited September 8, 2025 by soccer10k

[Geographyhater8888]

7 hours ago, soccer10k said:

I'm aware that the overly negative people suck also. I already said that. Personally it's very easy for me to scroll right past their stupidity. But it really bothers me to have someone who generally appears to be pretty intelligent and logical about all things baseball trying to use a a 5-4 stretch against 3 of the worst 6 teams in the majors (which you tried to do with your point about the latest homestand) as part of your proof that this team is still good. Especially when he pops in at the end of a lot of losses to try and say how everything is still great.

The other teams don't matter in this case. I'm evaluating the Cubs. I'm aware that they're aren't any great teams this year. That doesn't mean we have to say the best few teams are great.

I am willing to discount the first couple months because it was clearly a hot streak by the offense. When you score runs like one of the best 30 offenses for 2 months, sorry, but that likely isn't sustainable. And they haven't come close to continuing to do that. Arbitrary end points because I have to pick a date, but OPS pre June 1 vs after June 1, Carson Kelly is 270 points worse, Tucker is 105 points worse, Suzuki 196 points worse, PCA 130 points worse, Amaya (.819 OPS) is injured. Happ is 71 points better, Dansby basically the same, Shaw basically the same (though much better since the ASB), Busch basically the same.

We know Tucker got hurt at some point and we also don't know how much that affected him since he hit well for a bit after the one injury we know about (unless I missed something). But he also might not be healthy the rest of the year. Kelly's hitting wasn't going to continue. Maybe the league adjusted a bit to PCA's free swinging, I don't know. His July was great but his August has been abysmal. Both aren't likely to continue. Seems unlikely it would take the league 4 months to figure a guy out but maybe they did. Suzuki's numbers overall are now fairly close to his career numbers. Amaya is still injured and who knows when he'll be back. I'm not sure there's anyone in there where you can be confident they'll go back to hitting like they did in April/May, and certainly not most or all of them.

Those wins are banked and they can't be taken away. But if I'm evaluating how the Cubs are as a whole, yes, I'm going to discount an unsustainable hot streak by the offense. It's no different than how nobody really thinks the Brewers are some 100 win juggernaut. Sure they went 39-9. Those wins are banked also. They're on pace for 100 wins. But nobody in their right mind expects them to play at that pace again, right? Well, I don't expect the Cubs to score runs like one of the best 30 offenses ever. And guess what, when they stopped doing that, they went from playing at a high 90's win pace to a mid 80's win pace. Which again, will still get them into the playoffs and will still give them a shot to make and win the World Series. But that doesn't mean we have to be happy about how they've played for 3 months or use 9 game samples against shitty teams to sugar coat things and make it seem like nothing is wrong.

You got a legitimate reason why things are going to turn around, I'd love to hear it. But 9 game samples aren't it.

What gets me the most is not just the expected regression to the mean from Seiya and PCA but how their power numbers have completely flat lined. Even with an expected drop in slug they were locks for 30+ home runs by September, and they’re still sitting in the high 20’s. I know June 1st is the before and after date you’ve set but Michael Busch’s second half OPS has dropped 302 points from what he posted in the first half. 
 

Out of curiosity what website do use to sample stats by date? 

Edited September 8, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[javy knows my name]

13 hours ago, Hankchifan said:

Tucker, Walsh and PCA all out at the same time, leaves too big a hole in the lineup.  We need to start hitting Walsh and PCA against lefties, as their replacements are worse.

Particularly closers,

We've talked an nauseum about how Walsh's numbers are only as good as they are because he's been protected from tough lefties. I'm tired of hearing that doing this is hurting Walsh's ability to help us win games. Walsh is at his Walshiest when he's facing righties and I'm good with leaving things as-is

If I've said this once, I've said it 1000 times - Turner is better at hitting lefties than Walsh is

Edited September 8, 2025 by javy knows my name

[CubinNY]

Yes, I think it's important to keep an eye on the big picture during times like yesterday. The Cubs are a good team even when they aren't playing their best baseball. There are no great teams this year during the regular season. 

The playoffs are an entirely different season, so getting in is all that matters. 

We all know that they refuse to exploit the advantages they have over the divisional competition. It doesn't change the calculus even when Plancia is doing his best, Zambrano. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

This is the 3rd season in a row where our top reliever or SP (all homegrown) went down with an arm injury in early Sept.

If things follow exactly how the last 2 seasons went, Palencia will have a stint on the IL and come back in late Sept, then suck early next season and go down with a serious injury needing surgery to the same part of arm he hurt in Sept.

I don't even know how CC can sit there and call it "shoulder tightness".   That's a pretty severe reaction to "tightness".   Pain seemed to be involved unless Palencia was overreacting.  I don't even know why he was left in the game.

This team is limping across the finish line.  They're going to need a heap of luck to pitch and play well throughout Oct because they've been setting themselves up like a house of cards.

Losing May-June-July Palencia is a real loss that either can’t be or isn’t likely to be overcome. Unfortunately they lost that player in August, not yesterday afternoon

[squally1313]

8 hours ago, soccer10k said:

I'm aware that the overly negative people suck also. I already said that. Personally it's very easy for me to scroll right past their stupidity. But it really bothers me to have someone who generally appears to be pretty intelligent and logical about all things baseball trying to use a a 5-4 stretch against 3 of the worst 6 teams in the majors (which you tried to do with your point about the latest homestand) as part of your proof that this team is still good. Especially when he pops in at the end of a lot of losses to try and say how everything is still great.

The other teams don't matter in this case. I'm evaluating the Cubs. I'm aware that they're aren't any great teams this year. That doesn't mean we have to say the best few teams are great.

I am willing to discount the first couple months because it was clearly a hot streak by the offense. When you score runs like one of the best 30 offenses for 2 months, sorry, but that likely isn't sustainable. And they haven't come close to continuing to do that. Arbitrary end points because I have to pick a date, but OPS pre June 1 vs after June 1, Carson Kelly is 270 points worse, Tucker is 105 points worse, Suzuki 196 points worse, PCA 130 points worse, Amaya (.819 OPS) is injured. Happ is 71 points better, Dansby basically the same, Shaw basically the same (though much better since the ASB), Busch basically the same.

We know Tucker got hurt at some point and we also don't know how much that affected him since he hit well for a bit after the one injury we know about (unless I missed something). But he also might not be healthy the rest of the year. Kelly's hitting wasn't going to continue. Maybe the league adjusted a bit to PCA's free swinging, I don't know. His July was great but his August has been abysmal. Both aren't likely to continue. Seems unlikely it would take the league 4 months to figure a guy out but maybe they did. Suzuki's numbers overall are now fairly close to his career numbers. Amaya is still injured and who knows when he'll be back. I'm not sure there's anyone in there where you can be confident they'll go back to hitting like they did in April/May, and certainly not most or all of them.

Those wins are banked and they can't be taken away. But if I'm evaluating how the Cubs are as a whole, yes, I'm going to discount an unsustainable hot streak by the offense. It's no different than how nobody really thinks the Brewers are some 100 win juggernaut. Sure they went 39-9. Those wins are banked also. They're on pace for 100 wins. But nobody in their right mind expects them to play at that pace again, right? Well, I don't expect the Cubs to score runs like one of the best 30 offenses ever. And guess what, when they stopped doing that, they went from playing at a high 90's win pace to a mid 80's win pace. Which again, will still get them into the playoffs and will still give them a shot to make and win the World Series. But that doesn't mean we have to be happy about how they've played for 3 months or use 9 game samples against shitty teams to sugar coat things and make it seem like nothing is wrong.

You got a legitimate reason why things are going to turn around, I'd love to hear it. But 9 game samples aren't it.

Some assorted thoughts:

• You weren't 'discounting' the first two months. You were ignoring them entirely with all the 84 win team talk (I've got 45-40 translating to 86 win team, but splitting hairs). Ignoring them because they were so historically good makes even less sense. They showed elite levels of production for two months. That absolutely holds some weight.
• If you had some all powerful/all knowing deity come down and tell you that this team was a true talent 84 win team, and then you told me that since June 1, they would have by far the biggest disparity, in a negative direction, between their xwOBA and their wOBA (no other team is above 20 points, we're at 27)....I would expect them to play a lot worse than at an 84 win pace? I mean, you could also argue that the statistic as a concept is some degree of flawed/worthless, obviously a different conversation, but setting that aside the Cubs are a pretty extreme outlier.  Now you could argue we've been on the other side of that luck on the pitching side but I don't think there's any way to say it's been overall equal. And I've been very negative/critical of the pitching staff and the way it was assembled/wasn't supplemented at the TDL. But I also expected Boyd or Horton to go on the shelf by now, and every day is another day closer to the playoffs with them still penciled in for 2 of the 3 first round starts. We all bemoaned the concept of having to start Matt Shaw every day and not getting Suarez, and we've all seen what's happened since. Hitting can turn quickly. 
• I'm sorry but the other teams still matter. Cubs are 45-40 since June 1. We're very likely to play the Padres in the first round, probably in a three game series all at Wrigley. The Padres are 46-41 since June 1. The Dodgers are 43-42 in that stretch. Theoretically by that measure they also 'don't have a legitimate reason to turn around'. The Brewers, historical stretch, discount/toss that out, 11-10 since the start of the 5 game Cubs series. I guess Phillies will just cakewalk? Because they've played 2.5 games better than us over a 2ish month stretch? The 2025 Cubs don't have to beat the 2016 Cubs to have success in the playoffs. They need to beat three or four similarly flawed teams in what are glorified coin flips. 
• I get your point on the sample size, and I'm very aware 9 games or whatever is dumb. It was mostly reactionary in that every. single. loss becomes this referendum of 'see, I told you they were bad'. Every loss is 'horsefeathers pathetic' etc etc etc. But we've yet to have a truly bad stretch, which is something you can't say about any of the other teams. 90 win teams don't win 55% of their games every week. They get hot, they play mediocre, and ultimately that's where they end up.

Edited September 8, 2025 by squally1313

[mul21]

2 hours ago, javy knows my name said:

We've talked an nauseum about how Walsh's numbers are only as good as they are because he's been protected from tough lefties. I'm tired of hearing that doing this is hurting Walsh's ability to help us win games. Walsh is at his Walshiest when he's facing righties and I'm good with leaving things as-is

If I've said this once, I've said it 1000 times - Turner is better at hitting lefties than Walsh is

Who the horsefeathers is Walsh?

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Who the horsefeathers is Walsh?

[mul21]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

I had it figured out with context clues but how does someone who's been watching this team all year do that?  Multiple times.

[soccer10k]

12 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Some assorted thoughts:

• You weren't 'discounting' the first two months. You were ignoring them entirely with all the 84 win team talk (I've got 45-40 translating to 86 win team, but splitting hairs). Ignoring them because they were so historically good makes even less sense. They showed elite levels of production for two months. That absolutely holds some weight.

It holds a small amount of weight but not much when it goes against all other evidence. Again I ask, which of those hitters would you reasonably expect to revert back to how they hit from April and May? I'll give you Tucker if he was healthy, which he's not. So four of those hitters way overperformed what was expected of them and the fifth is injured, why on earth should I reasonably expect that offense to return? Is it possible? Sure. But it's not smart to expect the 1-5% end of the bell curve to happen again.

12 hours ago, squally1313 said:

• I'm sorry but the other teams still matter. Cubs are 45-40 since June 1. We're very likely to play the Padres in the first round, probably in a three game series all at Wrigley. The Padres are 46-41 since June 1. The Dodgers are 43-42 in that stretch. Theoretically by that measure they also 'don't have a legitimate reason to turn around'. The Brewers, historical stretch, discount/toss that out, 11-10 since the start of the 5 game Cubs series. I guess Phillies will just cakewalk? Because they've played 2.5 games better than us over a 2ish month stretch? The 2025 Cubs don't have to beat the 2016 Cubs to have success in the playoffs. They need to beat three or four similarly flawed teams in what are glorified coin flips. 

You're making an argument against a point I'm not even making. I'm not ranking the teams 1-30 where there has to be a best team and a second best team, etc, and I'm not talking about how likely they are to advance in the playoffs. The best team in a season isn't necessarily a great team. This season is different than 2017-2023 where they were 3 or 4 100+ win teams. If you have five dudes who are all between 5'-6" and 5'-10", that doesn't make the 5'-10" guy tall. It just means he's taller than the other guys. The Cubs can be the second or third best team this year without being a great team. And I'm not trying to say they're like the 16th best team.

12 hours ago, squally1313 said:

• I get your point on the sample size, and I'm very aware 9 games or whatever is dumb. It was mostly reactionary in that every. single. loss becomes this referendum of 'see, I told you they were bad'. Every loss is 'horsefeathers pathetic' etc etc etc. But we've yet to have a truly bad stretch, which is something you can't say about any of the other teams. 90 win teams don't win 55% of their games every week. They get hot, they play mediocre, and ultimately that's where they end up.

I would recommend scrolling rght past the dumbasses. It's very easy to because I do it most times I venture into a game thread. Or if you can't scroll past all of them, pick the 3 or 4 dumbest of the dumbasses and block them so you don't even see their posts. Also it's a game thread and people are allowed to overreact a bit. Not everyone is a robot like David. And yes, some are worse than others. So block the worst ones.

[squally1313]

19 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Again I ask, which of those hitters would you reasonably expect to revert back to how they hit from April and May? I'll give you Tucker if he was healthy, which he's not. So four of those hitters way overperformed what was expected of them and the fifth is injured, why on earth should I reasonably expect that offense to return? Is it possible? Sure. But it's not smart to expect the 1-5% end of the bell curve to happen again.

Those are numbers since June 1. The league wide gap between xwOBA and wOBA is currently 11 points (xwOBA is higher), so pretty much every one of those guys above besides Tucker is theoretically not getting the results they deserve to an extent that is, sometimes pretty significantly, beyond league average. If you don't buy into this stuff, fine, to each their own. But also, the expectation doesn't need to be 'return to the historic stretch of production'....it can just be 'marginally better than the 84ish win pace they've produced during this stretch'. There's a middle ground there.

25 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

If you have five dudes who are all between 5'-6" and 5'-10", that doesn't make the 5'-10" guy tall. It just means he's taller than the other guys.

Yeah, but if the rules are that the tallest guy in the room is the World Series champion,  and those are the guys that show up, then the 5'10" guy gets a parade at the end of the year. And if you're making the argument that there are no 'great teams', whatever that means...maybe the grading scale is a little thrown off?

29 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

I would recommend scrolling rght past the dumbasses. It's very easy to because I do it most times I venture into a game thread. Or if you can't scroll past all of them, pick the 3 or 4 dumbest of the dumbasses and block them so you don't even see their posts. Also it's a game thread and people are allowed to overreact a bit.

We've both been here forever, do whatever you want but like...feel free to scroll right past my horsefeathers too then? Someone else called me out for thread copping or whatever, and so I wasn't even replying to anyone in the post that set you off. If people are 'allowed to overreact a bit' but I get called out for saying the 80-60 team playing .500 ball is not pathetic, trash, going to miss the playoffs, like....what are we doing here? The amount of vitriol, some of it increasingly gross lately, towards a team that we're all supposedly fans of pisses me off, I'm going to push back on it.

[javy knows my name]

16 hours ago, mul21 said:

I had it figured out with context clues but how does someone who's been watching this team all year do that?  Multiple times.

Boomers, man