Cubs (N/A) vs Day Off: 9/4/25

[BKHoo]

Brewers lost!

[soccer10k]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

Boyd is at 159 IP already, he's well into abuse territory and he's got 2 months to go.   Horton is over 130 IP for the year between levels with 2 months to go. 

Very optimistic of you to say we’ve got 2 months of baseball left. Lol.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Maybe in 2025 we can be a little more curious than claiming an IP number is an injury harbinger like it's an ironclad rule of the universe.  For example, Horton has pitched on 4 days rest in only 7 of his 20 starts. In only 2 of those 7 did he throw more than 80 pitches, and he has thrown more than 90 pitches just 4 times in total(0 times since the All-Star break).  Injury risk increases with fatigue, that's why people use innings as a crude barometer and why pitch counts get highlighted.  The Cubs are almost certainly looking at more detailed markers than that, but it's very clear even using those simplified markers that they're being very careful to avoid Horton hitting the point of fatigue in order to manage the injury risk.

Also for a quick comparison: in 2003 Mark Prior made 17 of his 30 starts on 4 days rest, threw less than 95 pitches once, and threw more than 110 pitches 19 times(regular season only).

Yes pitch counts matter more than IP.   Horton;s situation is better than the IP because he's been throwing strikes and been effective/efficient and avoiding walks and K's.  I'm also not arguing his treatment is as bad as Mark Prior.

But they have 2 months to pitch, and they need to be at their strongest in the playoffs, not running on fumes.  It appears obvious the Cubs have no plans for any significant rest for either Boyd or Horton unless they show fatigue (which Boyd could be?) or get injured.  Were Prior and Wood showing fatigue in 2003?  Who knows but it didn't seem that way from what I remember.  Comparing pitch counts from 20 years ago to now is also not 1:1.

Some preventative caution doesn't seem unreasonable at all.  When the load on a part of the body is too much it can cause injury in an instant, it doesn't always come with warnings.  The data shows pitching injuries dramatically increased in 2021 and 2022 because of limited usage in 2020 and have been trending down every year since.

This is also an org that just traded for a SP with declining velo red flags and then immediately threw him on the mound and got immediately hurt.   2 years ago they also pitched their oft-injured closer into the ground because they were desperately short on pitching talent, which doesn't seem much different this year with the rotation.  They also threw Steele back on the mound in late Sept last yr for meaningless games after a couple weeks out with an elbow injury. instead of shutting him down.   This org doesn't have a clue and continually ignores red flags and shouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt.

Edited September 5, 2025 by Stratos

[Stratos]

PCA hit .160/.216/.230 (.430 OPS) in Aug.  Yikes.   .984 OPS in July.  Let's hope he heats up again.

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Yes pitch counts matter more than IP.   Horton;s situation is better than the IP because he's been throwing strikes and been effective/efficient and avoiding walks and K's.  I'm also not arguing his treatment is as bad as Mark Prior.

But they have 2 months to pitch, and they need to be at their strongest in the playoffs, not running on fumes.  It appears obvious the Cubs have no plans for any significant rest for either Boyd or Horton unless they show fatigue (which Boyd could be?) or get injured.  Were Prior and Wood showing fatigue in 2003?  Who knows but it didn't seem that way from what I remember.  Comparing pitch counts from 20 years ago to now is also not 1:1.

Some preventative caution doesn't seem unreasonable at all.  When the load on a part of the body is too much it can cause injury in an instant, it doesn't always come with warnings.  The data shows pitching injuries dramatically increased in 2021 and 2022 because of limited usage in 2020 and have been trending down every year since.

This is also an org that just traded for a SP with declining velo red flags and then immediately threw him on the mound and got immediately hurt.   2 years ago they also pitched their oft-injured closer into the ground because they were desperately short on pitching talent, which doesn't seem much different this year with the rotation.  They also threw Steele back on the mound in late Sept last yr for meaningless games after a couple weeks out with an elbow injury. instead of shutting him down.   This org doesn't have a clue and continually ignores red flags and shouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt.

Tell me more about these two months of baseball you apparently expect the Cubs to be playing. Most posters seem to expect much closer to 1 month. And, tbh, if they misused Boyd and Horton it will be around a month. If they do play 2 months it is pretty much proof they handled them correctly. Because they can’t play 2 months if those guys are not good. 

[mk49]

8 hours ago, Brian707 said:

Who would you rather face? Padres or Mets? Padres might fall to #6 soon

Definitely, Mets.  They are good only at home, well usually.

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

PCA hit .160/.216/.230 (.430 OPS) in Aug.  Yikes.   .984 OPS in July.  Let's hope he heats up again.

Yeah, even Seiya who's been struggling for a while, is way better than Pete.  Maybe, Castro is better than Pete, too, which is very sad.

[squally1313]

35 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Yeah, even Seiya who's been struggling for a while, is way better than Pete.  Maybe, Castro is better than Pete, too, which is very sad.

You can't put up a .430 OPS, even if you're prime Andruw Jones out there. But the amount of value PCA brings to the table defensively means you can't just look solely at the offensive output.

Obviously isn't apples to apples, but kinda works since WAR is a cumulative stat. In 2023 Castro had 409 PAs, put up a .750 OPS, very good baserunning (15th in baseball metrically, 31 SBs) and slightly above average defense and was worth 2.5 fWAR. PCA in 2024 had 410 PAs, so an equal amount, had a .670 OPS (down 80 points), very good baserunning (17th in baseball metrically, 27 SBs) and elite defense, and was worth 2.6 fWAR. Oversimplifying by a lot, but based on this comparison, what PCA brings defensively is worth like 80 points of OPS. 

Seiya Suzuki as a .670 OPS guy would be pretty downright unplayable, though, in a somewhat separate topic, there's no reason to think that's his talent level at the moment. 

 

[mk49]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You can't put up a .430 OPS, even if you're prime Andruw Jones out there. But the amount of value PCA brings to the table defensively means you can't just look solely at the offensive output.

Obviously isn't apples to apples, but kinda works since WAR is a cumulative stat. In 2023 Castro had 409 PAs, put up a .750 OPS, very good baserunning (15th in baseball metrically, 31 SBs) and slightly above average defense and was worth 2.5 fWAR. PCA in 2024 had 410 PAs, so an equal amount, had a .670 OPS (down 80 points), very good baserunning (17th in baseball metrically, 27 SBs) and elite defense, and was worth 2.6 fWAR. Oversimplifying by a lot, but based on this comparison, what PCA brings defensively is worth like 80 points of OPS. 

Seiya Suzuki as a .670 OPS guy would be pretty downright unplayable, though, in a somewhat separate topic, there's no reason to think that's his talent level at the moment. 

 

I was just talking about Pete's offense.  His defense is always great, anyway.  He could win Platinum Glove this year.  If he doesn't win at least Gold Glove, I'd be disappointed.  

And, to be honest, I don't know why Counsell uses Castro so often.  Like for the last game, I wanted to see Alcantara over Castro at the center field.  But, Castro had an RBI single, and that was the only run, so I shouldn't complain.😄

Edited September 5, 2025 by mk49

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Tell me more about these two months of baseball you apparently expect the Cubs to be playing. Most posters seem to expect much closer to 1 month. And, tbh, if they misused Boyd and Horton it will be around a month. If they do play 2 months it is pretty much proof they handled them correctly. Because they can’t play 2 months if those guys are not good. 

I'm not saying I expect them to throw for 2 more months but they need to obviously prepare for that possibility if they have plans to go deep in Oct.  Do they really expect Boyd and Horton to do that?  Or are they just using them now while they're healthy and effective and rolling the dice in the playoffs?

[Hot Sauce]

8 hours ago, Derwood said:

Matthew Boyd is 18th in the league in innings pitched. No one else is in the top 50

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[CubinNY]

They will go as far as the pitching will take them. I like the starters, I do not like the pen. It's time for PCA to decide he's not going to be Javy Baez with more contact skills. 

Warts and all, they have a shot once they get in the playoffs. 

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They will go as far as the pitching will take them. I like the starters, I do not like the pen. It's time for PCA to decide he's not going to be Javy Baez with more contact skills. 

Warts and all, they have a shot once they get in the playoffs. 

Fair. But I do like the one a little. Playoff pen is different than regular season pen. They have Kittredge, Keller, Theilbar and Palencia(hopefully we get good Palencia). It would be nice if Hodge showed up down the stretch. There are definitely question marks in the pen, which is why I said I like them “a little”. But on the whole I agree with you, they have warts. But by suggesting they have a shot it seems you are acknowledging all teams do. And I agree with that as well. All we can ask for is a horsefeathers. And they will have it this year. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Fair. But I do like the one a little. Playoff pen is different than regular season pen. They have Kittredge, Keller, Theilbar and Palencia(hopefully we get good Palencia). It would be nice if Hodge showed up down the stretch. There are definitely question marks in the pen, which is why I said I like them “a little”. But on the whole I agree with you, they have warts. But by suggesting they have a shot it seems you are acknowledging all teams do. And I agree with that as well. All we can ask for is a horsefeathers. And they will have it this year. 

There are no great teams this year, for whatever reason. Right now, if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the Phillies in the NL and the Tigers in the AL. 

[Rcal10]

56 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

There are no great teams this year, for whatever reason. Right now, if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the Phillies in the NL and the Tigers in the AL. 

I think the Phillies are the Cubs worst match up. 3 lefties in the rotation would be troubling for the Cubs. Fortunately as long as they don’t pass the Brewers I don’t see the Cubs facing them until the NLCS. Hopefully someone else beats them. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

They will go as far as the pitching will take them. I like the starters, I do not like the pen. It's time for PCA to decide he's not going to be Javy Baez with more contact skills. 

Warts and all, they have a shot once they get in the playoffs. 

How do you figure? Are you saying that with the assumption that the bats will wake up? 

Edited September 5, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[BigSlick]

Everyone's got a shot in the playoffs. the stupid 2006 Cardinals won a world series with an 83 win team. We gotta stop being so kooky about this