Jaxon Wiggins Promoted to AAA

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Donzo said:

 Rea/Brown/Assad.

So you think the team won't add a SP this winter?

[Donzo]

19 hours ago, mul21 said:

Sure, but you're advocating for a guy who's going to throw less than 90 innings this year to be on track to throw 160 if he gets a full complement of starts and averages 5 IP per game.  It's just nonsensical to think that's a likely thing to happen.

It's less than 90 inngings, but it's his innings plus ACR training and the Horton comp-(38 innings/24 and 139 innings/25).

Edited September 11, 2025 by Donzo

[Donzo]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So you think the team won't add a SP this winter?

Don't know... Like I posted, trades and free agency could change the rotation dynamic.

[Tryptamine]

51 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So you think the team won't add a SP this winter?

Even if they don't add a SP this offseason, you're still looking at 

Steele/Boyd/Shota/Horton/Taillon. None of these guys are losing their rotation spot outside of the early part of the season that Steele might not be ready for. Honestly that's a pretty damn strong rotation without a FA or Wiggins.

[Donzo]

On 9/7/2025 at 11:03 AM, Bertz said:

There's practically no chance Wiggins opens next year in the MLB rotation.

All said and done it appears you're right. We'll see what happens in spring, but Wiggins looks to be on the same path as Horton. Needing five or so good AAA starts to be ready for the Cubs.

You never know, Wiggins is ending the season healthy where Horton was injured. If Wiggins dominates in spring he could earn a spot, but his clear projection is to begin 2026 at Iowa.

[Bertz]

3 hours ago, Donzo said:

All said and done it appears you're right. We'll see what happens in spring, but Wiggins looks to be on the same path as Horton. Needing five or so good AAA starts to be ready for the Cubs.

You never know, Wiggins is ending the season healthy where Horton was injured. If Wiggins dominates in spring he could earn a spot, but his clear projection is to begin 2026 at Iowa.

The best way to think about this is that any MLB team likely needs 7-8 starters over the course of a season, and if you have eyes in seriously competing you probably wanna bump that closer to 10.  Even if you think Wiggins is MLB ready *right now*, for pure roster management reasons they just can't operate in a way that gives him a direct path to MLB.

I'd expect the pitching depth to look something like this heading into ST

- 4 veteran locks: Likely Boyd, Shota, Taillon, and a TBD new acquisition

- 1 optionable near lock: Cade Horton

- 1 Justin Steele recovering from injury

- 1 veteran swingman.  This is probably Rea but maybe the team makes a swap 

- 2-3 optionable depth types.  This is likely some combo of Assad/Brown/Wicks.  I could see one getting moved or shifted to short relief but at least two will enter camp stretched out

- Wiggins and to a lesser extent Sanders as off the 40 man prospect depth

The season is long, and pitching depth erodes quickly. Like this year the Cubs at damn near any given time had 2-3 starters on the IL and Brown/Wicks didn't perform like we'd have liked.  Wiggins is fun and we all want to see him ASAP, but the inherent cost to giving him an easy avenue to make the team early next year is leaving yourself dangerously vulnerable to attrition.

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, Donzo said:

All said and done it appears you're right. We'll see what happens in spring, but Wiggins looks to be on the same path as Horton. Needing five or so good AAA starts to be ready for the Cubs.

You never know, Wiggins is ending the season healthy where Horton was injured. If Wiggins dominates in spring he could earn a spot, but his clear projection is to begin 2026 at Iowa.

I think there is a non-zero chance he could end up winning a spot in the Cubs rotation out of the gate, but it's almost assuredly a bad thing overall. It would likely mean that a pitcher the Cubs didn't want to be hurt is. And while I like Wiggins a lot, I do think there's progress to be made on the secondaries yet. Horton was a little further along, IMO, as a pitcher. His strike throwing gave him a leg up over a lot, and he's tinkered and changed even in the MLB, but he's capable of doing that with how many strikes he throws.

Wiggins doesn't tend to throw as many strikes and the secondaries need some tinkering. Not a negative, he's just a young pitcher. I do think we'll 100% see him next year baring catastrophic injury, but don't think he'll be in the April plans.

[JBears79]

24 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think there is a non-zero chance he could end up winning a spot in the Cubs rotation out of the gate, but it's almost assuredly a bad thing overall. It would likely mean that a pitcher the Cubs didn't want to be hurt is. And while I like Wiggins a lot, I do think there's progress to be made on the secondaries yet. Horton was a little further along, IMO, as a pitcher. His strike throwing gave him a leg up over a lot, and he's tinkered and changed even in the MLB, but he's capable of doing that with how many strikes he throws.

Wiggins doesn't tend to throw as many strikes and the secondaries need some tinkering. Not a negative, he's just a young pitcher. I do think we'll 100% see him next year baring catastrophic injury, but don't think he'll be in the April plans.

i imagine hes on the exact same plan as Horton. If everything goes well I think we see him up in May 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

i imagine hes on the exact same plan as Horton. If everything goes well I think we see him up in May 

If needed. But that is also close to a Steele return too. So if they have Boyd, Horton, Tailon, a FA pitcher and Shoto and Steele returning, Wiggins might not come up. To me, the longer they can hold him off, the better the major league team is probably doing. I don’t think the Cubs plan for Horton was coming up when he did and pitching as much as he did. That was out of necessity. If all pitchers stay relatively healthy or at least not multiple guys out at the same time, Wiggins might made a debut in relief. 

[JBears79]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If needed. But that is also close to a Steele return too. So if they have Boyd, Horton, Tailon, a FA pitcher and Shoto and Steele returning, Wiggins might not come up. To me, the longer they can hold him off, the better the major league team is probably doing. I don’t think the Cubs plan for Horton was coming up when he did and pitching as much as he did. That was out of necessity. If all pitchers stay relatively healthy or at least not multiple guys out at the same time, Wiggins might made a debut in relief. 

im hoping we trade one of Taillon or Shota in the offseason. Taillon isnt bad but hes overpaid and shota is very overrated, he just doesnt fit Wrigley as a fly ball pitcher. Id reinvent the rotation around Horton. We go Horton Boyd, Whoever doesnt get traded between Taillon and Shota, Steele (when he comes back) and fill in the 5th spot with a FA. 

 

Still a very mediocre rotation but its really our only option at the moment with how cheap and awful Hoyer is with pitching,

[NorthsideAvenger]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

 Wiggins might made a debut in relief. 

I've always loved the idea of starting young SP arms in the bullpen until they get their feet wet at the ML level. 

[Jason Ross]

13 hours ago, JBears79 said:

im hoping we trade one of Taillon or Shota in the offseason. Taillon isnt bad but hes overpaid and shota is very overrated, he just doesnt fit Wrigley as a fly ball pitcher. Id reinvent the rotation around Horton. We go Horton Boyd, Whoever doesnt get traded between Taillon and Shota, Steele (when he comes back) and fill in the 5th spot with a FA. 

 

Still a very mediocre rotation but its really our only option at the moment with how cheap and awful Hoyer is with pitching,

It's hard to say the Cubs are "awful" with pitching. They have frankly, done very well. Shota has outpitched his salary, the Cubs have found interesting BP options others ignored (Brad Keller, Caleb Theilbar, etc) and when everyone was freaking out about Boyd/Rea both were better than expected. 

The Cubs do need another horse in the rotation, but let's not undersell the team's ability to find pitchers, either by calling it awful. 

[muntjack]

Agree that the team has found some quality relievers,  but if you throw enough arms at the proverbial wall, some are going to stick. 

The Cubs aren't the only team to take this approach, but they do seem to struggle with it,  in some sense. 

They consistently pay for past performance with guys nearing the aging cliff and then cling too tightly after the fall.   This has become a pattern, now.

If they are going to give long leashes, it should be to young, high-ceiling arms.  

[Rcal10]

16 hours ago, JBears79 said:

im hoping we trade one of Taillon or Shota in the offseason. Taillon isnt bad but hes overpaid and shota is very overrated, he just doesnt fit Wrigley as a fly ball pitcher. Id reinvent the rotation around Horton. We go Horton Boyd, Whoever doesnt get traded between Taillon and Shota, Steele (when he comes back) and fill in the 5th spot with a FA. 

 

Still a very mediocre rotation but its really our only option at the moment with how cheap and awful Hoyer is with pitching,

I will agree to Hoyer (following Rickett’s payroll guidelines) is cheap when it comes to pitchers. But he is not awful. Imanaga, Rea, & Boyd have all out pitched their contracts. Tailon has been a decent MOR starter for his MOR contract. And if you want to add pen arms to this, guys like Theilbar, Pomeranz and Keller have all been great signings. I think he is very good at finding pitching with a limited budget. 

[Bertz]

The Cubs do a great job with pitching given the resources they allocate to it.  People get like apoplectic about e.g. Hector Neris but when you stack everything up they're definitely in the black.  The question is really whether they're allocating enough resources.

Now that the roster is fairly complete, this winter will be interesting to see how much gets thrown at the pitching staff.  Does Jed either A) forgo Tucker to throw a bunch of dollars at it or B) finally throw a couple of the Iowa bats at the problem.

[squally1313]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs do a great job with pitching given the resources they allocate to it.  People get like apoplectic about e.g. Hector Neris but when you stack everything up they're definitely in the black.  The question is really whether they're allocating enough resources.

Now that the roster is fairly complete, this winter will be interesting to see how much gets thrown at the pitching staff.  Does Jed either A) forgo Tucker to throw a bunch of dollars at it or B) finally throw a couple of the Iowa bats at the problem.

Yeah two or three years ago you were looking at a lineup that had basically zero cost controlled talent. Extending Hoerner and Happ, paying for Hosmer/Mancini, having to bring in Bellinger, signing Suzuki, etc. Having Busch, PCA, Shaw, Amaya around and locked up, with Ballesteros looking offensively ready and Caissie not far behind, frees up a lot of cash. Now, maybe it all goes to Tucker. But we can certainly start moving some piles around. 

[craig]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

....I'd expect the pitching depth to look something like this heading into ST

- 4 veteran locks: Likely Boyd, Shota, Taillon, and a TBD new acquisition

- 1 optionable near lock: Cade Horton

- 1 Justin Steele recovering from injury

- 1 veteran swingman.  This is probably Rea but maybe the team makes a swap 

- 2-3 optionable depth types.  This is likely some combo of Assad/Brown/Wicks.  I could see one getting moved or shifted to short relief but at least two will enter camp stretched out

- Wiggins and to a lesser extent Sanders as off the 40 man prospect depth

.....

Coming in way late to discussion.  And after winning today, talking about next year is probably silly.  

But the presumption in your post, Bertz, and I think in others, is that Shota is a vet lock.  I wonder?  

1. Cubs have $57/3 option.  4.86 FIP, 31HR/145 IP, declining velocity, low K-rate, 3.73 ERA.  Between Wrigley and great Cubs defense, he's not the only pitcher where ERA will be lower than FIP (or whatever more sophisticated pitching metric you use.). . 
2. So, $57/3 may not be an option the Cubs are likely to pick up?  Not a lock that they will?  
3. If they don't, Shota basically has $30/2 option, with opt-out after one if he wants. 
4. Probably he'll take that and stay, but perhaps not a lock?  
5. Heh heh, hopefully he pitches great tomorrow, and gets a couple more post-season games to look great!

 

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, craig said:

Coming in way late to discussion.  And after winning today, talking about next year is probably silly.  

But the presumption in your post, Bertz, and I think in others, is that Shota is a vet lock.  I wonder?  

1. Cubs have $57/3 option.  4.86 FIP, 31HR/145 IP, declining velocity, low K-rate, 3.73 ERA.  Between Wrigley and great Cubs defense, he's not the only pitcher where ERA will be lower than FIP (or whatever more sophisticated pitching metric you use.). . 
2. So, $57/3 may not be an option the Cubs are likely to pick up?  Not a lock that they will?  
3. If they don't, Shota basically has $30/2 option, with opt-out after one if he wants. 
4. Probably he'll take that and stay, but perhaps not a lock?  
5. Heh heh, hopefully he pitches great tomorrow, and gets a couple more post-season games to look great!

 

I would bet it's a near lock they pick him up for the final 3 years. His AAV of $13.25m is asking him to be a #4 on a good staff. He had a bumpy year at times, had an injury, and I think his fastball command waned, but that's a pretty easy and inexpensive bet for how good he can be. 

Bertz also brought up how early they have to make the decision. I'd put it at 90/10 they pick it up, and frankly, that might be low as long as he doesn't blow his elbow out in the playoffs.

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, craig said:

Coming in way late to discussion.  And after winning today, talking about next year is probably silly.  

But the presumption in your post, Bertz, and I think in others, is that Shota is a vet lock.  I wonder?  

1. Cubs have $57/3 option.  4.86 FIP, 31HR/145 IP, declining velocity, low K-rate, 3.73 ERA.  Between Wrigley and great Cubs defense, he's not the only pitcher where ERA will be lower than FIP (or whatever more sophisticated pitching metric you use.). . 
2. So, $57/3 may not be an option the Cubs are likely to pick up?  Not a lock that they will?  
3. If they don't, Shota basically has $30/2 option, with opt-out after one if he wants. 
4. Probably he'll take that and stay, but perhaps not a lock?  
5. Heh heh, hopefully he pitches great tomorrow, and gets a couple more post-season games to look great!

 

In the context of that post I meant four veteran locks as in we'll have four veterans who are guaranteed rotation spots heading into spring, barring injury of course.  For roster management purposes I think that's important to keep in mind for gameplanning how you'd get Wiggins to MLB.

For the names specifically, I'd say it's very unlikely Shota goes anywhere, but admittedly it's not a lock.  I'd put Taillon in a similar boat.  I think if Tom juices payroll this winter (unlikely, but this would be the time to do it if ever) or if Jed has no intention of holding onto Tucker, then the offseason gameplan would clearly be pitching pitching pitching, and there'd be money to both add a SP outright and also upgrade from one of the mid priced vets.

I'll say I'm not super worried about Shota.  He probably doesn't have another year like last year in him, but he's still missing bats and the models still like his stuff.  There's probably some positive strikeout regression due that would make his peripherals look a lot more mid-rotationy.  I think picking up his option is still a + EV move, even if its not the crazy bargain it looked like a year ago.  

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I would bet it's a near lock they pick him up for the final 3 years. His AAV of $13.25m is asking him to be a #4 on a good staff. He had a bumpy year at times, had an injury, and I think his fastball command waned, but that's a pretty easy and inexpensive bet for how good he can be. 

Bertz also brought up how early they have to make the decision. I'd put it at 90/10 they pick it up, and frankly, that might be low as long as he doesn't blow his elbow out in the playoffs.

Isn’t Shoto’s contract a little more complicated than being suggested. I thought after 2 years the Cubs had the option of going 3 more years and his contract would total out at $80M over 5 years. If they do not exercise that option Shoto has an option to stay with this current deal. If he declines that option, he is a FA. If that is the wording, Shoto is definitely not a sure thing. Cubs have paid him $26.5M so far. Would they go 3 more years at $53.5? I am not sure about that. Would Shoto leave 2/$26.5 to test free agency? I think he would. 

Edited October 1, 2025 by Rcal10

[muntjack]

Shota is such a bizarre case.  He limits hits with the best of them,  but 30% of the hits he allows are HRs.  Curious how much of an outlier that is. 

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Isn’t Shoto’s contract a little more complicated than being suggested. I thought after 2 years the Cubs had the option of going 3 more years and his contract would total out at $80M over 5 years. If they do not exercise that option Shoto has an option to stay with this current deal. If he declines that option, he is a FA. If that is the wording, Shoto is definitely not a sure thing. Cubs have paid him $26.5M so far. Would they go 3 more years at $53.5? I am not sure about that. Would Shoto leave 2/$26.5 to test free agency? I think he would. 

The Cubs hold the first option. I don't think anything else will matter. If the Cubs were to decline it, Shota could decline and become a FA, or could just allow the contract to slide to 4 years. The Cubs probably are not going to decline the option and risk him leaving, 

So it'd be $16m AAV. Still that of a good #4 or so on a contending roster. About what Taillon was given four years prior. 

[craig]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I would bet it's a near lock they pick him up for the final 3 years. His AAV of $13.25m is asking him to be a #4 on a good staff. He had a bumpy year at times, had an injury, and I think his fastball command waned, but that's a pretty easy and inexpensive bet for how good he can be. 

Bertz also brought up how early they have to make the decision. I'd put it at 90/10 they pick it up, and frankly, that might be low as long as he doesn't blow his elbow out in the playoffs.

"....His AAV of $13.25m is asking him to be a #4 on a good staff. ..."

Jason, not sure I'm understanding. 

• $13.25, that's been his lux line assuming Cubs DO NOT pick up his option.  $13.25 is based on the guaranteed money *IF* Cubs decline option, and assuming Shota does pick up his.  
• Do you know what happens if previously non-guaranteed options do get picked up by Cubs?  $57/3 is $19 AAV.  Would Cubs get luxed at $19.0 for next 3 years?  Or would some of that get back-luxed?  Combine the upcoming $57/3 with the previous $23/2, the pre-option and post-option would sume to $80/5 = $16.0 AAV? 
• In other words, if the Cubs pick up the new 3-year option, would they get luxed at $19 for each of those new years?  Or would they get down-luxed to only $16 by adding in cheaper 2-years past?  And the previous two seasons would get retroactively upluxed from $13.25 up to $16.0 instead?  (So the Cubs would then get retroactively given a little more tax bill from 2024?). 
• Not sure, but to me the logic would seem that if/when the Cubs claim the higher-ave $57/3 option for the future, they should get luxed based on that for the future.  $19/year, not $13.25.  
• $19 seems kinda high for a #4 who has partially lived on Wrigley and Cubs defense.  But maybe that's just dumb, and $19 multi-year-guaranteed is market norm for a #4.
• But yeah, to me it seems like if you have a choice on how to invest $57/3, they might think they could do better on the market.  Maybe somebody with a little more velocity, or a little younger, or somebody whose pitch mix they think they can optimize a bit as they've done successfully with some pitchers?  
• Anybody they sign will get to pitch in Wrigley, so the HR-suppression that has helped Shota will help anybody else also.  And anybody new that they sign will also get the Cubs defense suppressing even more runs.  So anybody added to replace Shota will also get some of the major Cubs/Wrigley run suppression that Shota has enjoyed, right?  
• I think they'd prefer Shota on $30/2, with ongoing $13.25 AAV, than $57/3 with $19 AAV.  
• So, my guess is that Cubs will decline, and then it will up to Shota to then make his choice.  Stay for $30/2-guaranteed, with opt-out after 2026?  Or hit the market this winter at age 32 and try to get better than $30/2?  That decision, for Shota, seems more uncertain to me than the Cubs decision regarding the $57/3 guarantee at $19-per.  
• You mentioned some early decision timelines.  Assuming Cubs have early decision and they decline their option, how much time will Shota have before his option decision?  Given my idea that his decision is the more uncertain one, I'm wondering how much time he'll have to explore the market, and when the Cubs will know whether they've got him at $30/2 and $13.25 for lux, versus looking for a replacement on the market.  If that makes sense?  
• Obviously the third potential outcome is that Cubs and Shota simply renegotiate a new compromise contract together, less than the $57/3.  Beats me.  
• Other thought:  his injury was in May, he's been pitching since June.  17 starts since IL.  Maybe he's been heroically pitching injured for the last 3+ months and 17 starts. But kinda thinking the start-of-May injury isn't that relevant to his post-all-star performance.  
• Again, not trying to diminish Shota's production.  Just thinking that locking in at $19/year, plus unnecessarily guaranteeing a 3rd year at that rate, doesn't seem Hoyer-esque.  

 

 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Shota is such a bizarre case.  He limits hits with the best of them,  but 30% of the hits he allows are HRs.  Curious how much of an outlier that is. 

A bit of column A and a bit of column B. His fastball shape is one that will be prone to HR's if he gets too much of the bottom 2/3rds of the zone, which he did this year. He lowered his arm angle a further few degrees which caused more arm-side run (dropping arm slots do that). I think this caused his fastball to come in more shallow and catch the zone more. High-ride fastballs have a tendency to "rise" into the hitting zone when kept low.

What he needs to do is keep it up more. I would not be surprised to see his arm angle move closer to the 40-degree mark he was last year. Nothing else really concerns me in the profile. 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs hold the first option. I don't think anything else will matter. If the Cubs were to decline it, Shota could decline and become a FA, or could just allow the contract to slide to 4 years. The Cubs probably are not going to decline the option and risk him leaving, 

So it'd be $16m AAV. Still that of a good #4 or so on a contending roster. About what Taillon was given four years prior. 

I do think they will keep him. But it isn’t a simple $13.5M a year decision. It is closer to $18M a year for the next 3. Sure the 5 year AAV works out to $16M. But the AAV for the next 3 years is $17.83. 

Edited October 1, 2025 by Rcal10