Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-22-25

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at Louisville, 5:35 pm
Knoxville vs. Pensacola, 6:00 pm
South Bend at Dayton, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Columbia, 6:05 pm
ACL Cubs at ACL Giants, 8:00 pm - link to livestream of the game
DSL Cubs Blue vs. DSL Marlins, 10:00 am
DSL Cubs Red at DSL White Sox, 10:00 am

Probable Starters:

Iowa: RHP Chris Kachmar (10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 14 K, 4 BB)
Knoxville: RHP Antonio Santos (54.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 45 K, 21 BB)
South Bend: RHP Connor Schultz (45.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 46 K, 12 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Ronny López (Myrtle Beach debut; at ACL: 32 IP, 7.03 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 30 K, 20 BB)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Juan Cabada left yesterday's game after a groundout and isn't in today's DSL Red lineup.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

22-year old Ronny López is getting the start for Myrtle Beach today. It'll be his first appearance in full season ball.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Juan Tomás: 0/1, BB, K, SB (7)
Frankelly Desis: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR
Wilfri de la Cruz: 1/2, 2 BB, K, 2B (7)
Leonel Vivas: 2/3, BB, K, 3B (1), HR (3)
Anthony Feliz: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

No Juan Cabada

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Might see some new names in the ACL lineup tonight:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[chibears55]

4 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

This guy better be in LF for the Cubs in 2026

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

3 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Mackenzie Gore or bust.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Miguel Amaya DHing in the ACL.

[chibears55]

9 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Mackenzie Gore or bust.

I prefer him in LF at WF for the next 10+ years

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Cubs420psd]

10 hours ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Mackenzie Gore or bust.

This is the only name I wouldn't be super upset about trading Cassie for (of the names we have heard so far)

 

If he is traded for something like Alcantara I'm gonna be super pissed.

[Jason Ross]

I understand Caissie is really having a great two months, but fair reminder that three moths ago these same sentiments were being said about Moises Baesteros by many on here, that he was essentially untouchable, and think about how the feeling has probably shifted some. 

I really like Caissie, but there is a reason he hasnt rise above top-40 status. He is a good prospect who is having a great run, but him being traded for less than a pure-Ace is the likely outcome (and fair value).

As it stands, I think there will be a lot of posters who will be upset over the trade Caissie is used in. But I don't think that will be a failing on Jed Hoyer's part.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

fair reminder that three moths ago these same sentiments were being said about Moises Baesteros by many on here, that he was essentially untouchable

[Bobson Dugnutt]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I understand Caissie is really having a great two months, but fair reminder that three moths ago these same sentiments were being said about Moises Baesteros by many on here, that he was essentially untouchable, and think about how the feeling has probably shifted some. 

I really like Caissie, but there is a reason he hasnt rise above top-40 status. He is a good prospect who is having a great run, but him being traded for less than a pure-Ace is the likely outcome (and fair value).

As it stands, I think there will be a lot of posters who will be upset over the trade Caissie is used in. But I don't think that will be a failing on Jed Hoyer's part.

In your opinion, is it reasonable to draw a line and say “I don’t want to trade Caissie for a rental?”

If so, the list gets pretty damn short for me. I’m not into dealing him for Mitch Keller. Edward Cabrera is interesting but the recent elbow issue is scary. Alcantara is also interesting but holy horsefeathers have the results been bad. Mackenzie Gore and Joe Ryan obviously are on the list but I don’t think either of them are going anywhere.

Realistically, I think he ends up going for one of the Marlins pitchers.

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I really like Caissie, but there is a reason he hasnt rise above top-40 status. He is a good prospect who is having a great run, but him being traded for less than a pure-Ace is the likely outcome (and fair value).

I don't know.  The problem I have with it is Caissie is very possibly already better than the guy we have in LF today.  I'm not suggesting the Cubs should replace Happ right now, but it has to at least be a consideration for next season.  Happ and Suzuki will be in the last years of their deals next year and Tucker probably won't be here, so there are going to be holes in the corner outfield spots.  I think trading the team's best Outfield prospect who is ready to plug into one of those holes for a mid-rotation starting pitcher would be a mistake.  I am much more open to trading some combination of Alcantara/Ballasteros/Rojas/Triantos... Basically anything but Caissie or Wiggins UNLESS it means getting a real top tier pitcher back.

[Outshined_One]

The recent lessons learned from Shaw and PCA should really educate the decision-making process around Caissie (as well as guys like Alcantara, Long, and Ballesteros, to various extents).  He's prone to Ks and has shown the need to make adjustments with each promotion. He's made them so far in AAA, which is great! He looks ready!

Except the reasonable expectation for him should be that he will fall flat on his face at the plate after being called up. Unlike Shaw or PCA, he's  not a premium defender, so it will make things even worse by comparison.

For whatever reason, the gulf between AAA and the majors for hitters is even more pronounced now than it was even a decade ago. We expect the 2026 Cubs to be just as competitive as now; can they carry Caissie for 200-300 PAs while he figures things out, especially if he's manning a position like LF or 1B that should produce a lot of offense?

I like the idea of keeping him, but, in a way, he represents one of the best chances this team has to make the WS this season due to his trade value. I'm not saying trade him for anyone, but if it means getting someone like Gore? I'm all in favor.

[Jason Ross]

44 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I don't know.  The problem I have with it is Caissie is very possibly already better than the guy we have in LF today.  I'm not suggesting the Cubs should replace Happ right now, but it has to at least be a consideration for next season.  Happ and Suzuki will be in the last years of their deals next year and Tucker probably won't be here, so there are going to be holes in the corner outfield spots.  I think trading the team's best Outfield prospect who is ready to plug into one of those holes for a mid-rotation starting pitcher would be a mistake.  I am much more open to trading some combination of Alcantara/Ballasteros/Rojas/Triantos... Basically anything but Caissie or Wiggins UNLESS it means getting a real top tier pitcher back.

The Cubs have lots of options in the OF. They can slide Suzuki, they can play Ballesteros at DH (the player the Cubs thought this spring was more ready for DH duties)...

Caissie is a cool prospect. I really like him. But he represents likely the best case for the Cubs to acquire solid SP. It likely wont be for a Gore. In fact, based on underlying data, I am not entirely certain the value of Caissie and Alcantara are not much closer than we realize. If the Cubs did swing that trade I expect two things;

1. The Cubs believe Alcantara is very fixable. The stuff is there

2. This board will go nuts

But I also don't think in that case it would be necessarily bad or a failure on Jed misreading the market as many will say.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

The recent lessons learned from Shaw and PCA should really educate the decision-making process around Caissie (as well as guys like Alcantara, Long, and Ballesteros, to various extents).  He's prone to Ks and has shown the need to make adjustments with each promotion. He's made them so far in AAA, which is great! He looks ready!

Except the reasonable expectation for him should be that he will fall flat on his face at the plate after being called up. Unlike Shaw or PCA, he's  not a premium defender, so it will make things even worse by comparison.

For whatever reason, the gulf between AAA and the majors for hitters is even more pronounced now than it was even a decade ago. We expect the 2026 Cubs to be just as competitive as now; can they carry Caissie for 200-300 PAs while he figures things out, especially if he's manning a position like LF or 1B that should produce a lot of offense?

I like the idea of keeping him, but, in a way, he represents one of the best chances this team has to make the WS this season due to his trade value. I'm not saying trade him for anyone, but if it means getting someone like Gore? I'm all in favor.

I think it's because every AAA stadium now has Statcast data, cameras, etc, so opposing teams can far more easily and efficiently see every minor leaguers flaws and exploit it immediately in the majors.

Caissie has a 30% K rate at AAA, it's going to be really ugly when he first comes up and I wouldn't be shocked if he takes over a year to become playable in the bigs (but I do think a Kyle Stowers-like profile eventually would materialize).

The hope is Tucker re-signs next year and you have 4 established OFers and DHs. As I sad earlier, I think Caissie will need a lot of major league runway to become a productive big leaguer and he wouldn't get that if Tucker is re-signed. If he doesn't play in the big leagues, his trade value will diminish. Flipping Caissie for a controllable SP is the best way to manage assets.

Replacing Happ's production in 2027 won't be hard in free agency/trade and you'd hope one of Conrad and Kepley prove themselves as worthy of getting into the same discussion as Caissie is now.

[gflore34]

4 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I understand Caissie is really having a great two months, but fair reminder that three moths ago these same sentiments were being said about Moises Baesteros by many on here, that he was essentially untouchable, and think about how the feeling has probably shifted some. 

I really like Caissie, but there is a reason he hasnt rise above top-40 status. He is a good prospect who is having a great run, but him being traded for less than a pure-Ace is the likely outcome (and fair value).

As it stands, I think there will be a lot of posters who will be upset over the trade Caissie is used in. But I don't think that will be a failing on Jed Hoyer's part.

As stated above I don't think you trade Cassie for a rental.  Ryan or Cabrera?  I could get on board.  Not Alcantara, I still believe that deal could get done without Cassie or Wiggins.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

As stated above I don't think you trade Cassie for a rental.  Ryan or Cabrera?  I could get on board.  Not Alcantara, I still believe that deal could get done without Cassie or Wiggins.

It may be true. But I think we have to accept this; if it takes Caissie, it probably couldn't be done for less and it's likely that the Cubs feel comfortable that they can take all of the stuff and movement that Sandy has and help him relatively quickly get back to a dominant arm.

[CubinNY]

All of the Cubs top prospects have big question marks. For me his K rate is a glaring red flag. 
 

I’m going to let Jed and Co work. Fifteen year old me remembers when they traded Mel Hall and Joe Carter for Rick Sutcliffe. 
 

I couldn’t believe it. He was 4-5 with a 5something ERA. It worked out well afterwards.