Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-11-25

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at St. Paul, 7:07 pm
Knoxville vs. Montgomery, 6:00 pm
South Bend at Wisconsin, 6:40 pm
Myrtle Beach at Kannapolis, 6:00 pm
ACL Cubs vs. ACL A's, 8:00 pm
DSL Cubs Blue at DSL Giants Black, 10:00 am
DSL Cubs Red vs. DSL Pirates Black, 10:00 am

Probable Starting Pitchers:

Iowa: RHP Kenta Maeda (40.1 IP, 7.14 ERA, 5.96 FIP, 26 K, 21 BB)
Knoxville: RHP Chris Clarke (9 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.61 FIP, 7 K, 0 BB)
South Bend: RHP Erian Rodríguez (36 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 30 K, 14 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Jostin Florentino (20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 22 K, 8 BB)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jefferson Rojas leadoff HR (#10)

[craig]

amazing, but big Midwest League has only 8 guys with >10 HR's.  Rojas at 10 is within the top 16 HR hitters in that league.  Keep them coming.  

Caissie and Alcantara both out tonight.  Is Caissie hurt again?  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 minute ago, craig said:

amazing, but big Midwest League has only 8 guys with >10 HR's.  Rojas at 10 is within the top 16 HR hitters in that league.  Keep them coming.  

Caissie and Alcantara both out tonight.  Is Caissie hurt again?  

Nope - traveling to the Futures Game. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

34 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Jefferson Rojas leadoff HR (#10)

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

Ariel Armas is on a little bit of a heater.  With his defense if he hits *at all* he's a thing

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Rojas with his 2nd HR of the night.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Alexey Lumpuy followed up his cycle by going 3/5 with a double.

Jostin Florentino: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Rojas with his 2nd HR of the night.

 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Rojas with his 2nd HR of the night.

At this point he's got to be the run away favorite to be considered the #1 prospect in the farm if he's even close to this productive after a AA promotion.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

45 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

At this point he's got to be the run away favorite to be considered the #1 prospect in the farm if he's even close to this productive after a AA promotion.

For sure. This has got to be his last series in South Bend.

[Bertz]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

At this point he's got to be the run away favorite to be considered the #1 prospect in the farm if he's even close to this productive after a AA promotion.

I think it depends on defensive reports on Moises and how much you want to discount Wiggins for the crime of being a pitcher, but yeah honestly if you wanted to argue him #1 even right now I wouldn't push back.

[Donzo]

Interesting comments on Rojas. He's on a heater for sure, but for perspective his heater looks like a slump compared to Cassie's hotstreak. Myself, I'd still have him 3rd behind Cassie and Wiggins as the most valuable Cub prospect.

Cassie is a complete prospect who's ready for the majors today, and Wiggins is the only power pitching prospect above A-ball. With that said, it's a close race with those three. Continued success at AA would add more fuel to Rojas's rising star.

We'll see how the dust settles on August 1st. By then the Cubs #1 prospect may be Triantos or the Cubs #1 pick on Sunday- 😰

[Jason Ross]

Regardless of who you think the best prospect in the system is, Rojas, Wiggins, Caissie or Ballesteros, it's cool to have this kind of talent that we can have those debates on. And it isn't like we're debating between who is the tallest short-king, but instead, looking at four prospects who all have legitimate MLB big-time upside. 

Now, I think the next two-to-three-weeks will cull the herd in some fashion, but a good problem and debate to have for the time being.

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Regardless of who you think the best prospect in the system is, Rojas, Wiggins, Caissie or Ballesteros, it's cool to have this kind of talent that we can have those debates on. And it isn't like we're debating between who is the tallest short-king, but instead, looking at four prospects who all have legitimate MLB big-time upside. 

Now, I think the next two-to-three-weeks will cull the herd in some fashion, but a good problem and debate to have for the time being.

Yep, Cubs have to make all of them available in order to get a difference maker who also comes with years of control left. I am not saying they deal all of them. I am saying not one of them should be off limits, for the right guy. (Gore or Ryan). Until yesterday I probably would have had Cabrera in that list too. So, as you said, the list will most likely look different 3 weeks from now. Hopefully sooner. 

Edited July 12, 2025 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

40 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Interesting comments on Rojas. He's on a heater for sure, but for perspective his heater looks like a slump compared to Cassie's hotstreak. Myself, I'd still have him 3rd behind Cassie and Wiggins as the most valuable Cub prospect.

Cassie is a complete prospect who's ready for the majors today, and Wiggins is the only power pitching prospect above A-ball. With that said, it's a close race with those three. Continued success at AA would add more fuel to Rojas's rising star.

We'll see how the dust settles on August 1st. By then the Cubs #1 prospect may be Triantos or the Cubs #1 pick on Sunday- 😰

It's less about the heat of their current heaters (we shouldn't let a few weeks move us too far on any prospect) and more that Rojas is a middle infielder who only strikes out half as often.

Caissie being pretty clearly MLB ready is a big deal, but he's got enough warts that I personally don't think he's ahead of the rest of the pack in the system, and definitely don't think that if he is it's by a super wide margin.

[Jason Ross]

FWIW, I've got Caissie #1, with Rojas and Wiggins nipping at his heels at #2. I'm a bigger believer in Caissie than others and want to see small things from Rojas (production at a new level, this isn't particularly his fault right now, the Cubs are on a promotion freeze) and Wiggins (more innings, a little progress in non-fastballs) before I give them a bump over him. With that said, I don't think any way you could possible rank Ballesteros, Caissie, Rojas and Wiggins is wrong. Like, if you had Triantos #1, I'd have some questions, but between those four, it's pretty clearly "when you squint, what do you see?" and if you see a catcher in Ballesteros, a 120 wRC+ SS in Rojas, a 135 wRC+ RF in Caissie or a TORP in Wiggins, then I can't say that's a ridiculous thing to squint and see. 

[Donzo]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

Caissie being pretty clearly MLB ready is a big deal, but he's got enough warts

Strikeouts.

[Donzo]

57 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I've got Caissie #1, with Rojas and Wiggins nipping at his heels at #2.  

Me too.

Going into this year I wated to see improved power and a better SO ration from Cassie. He's delivered on the power; SLG up over .100%  and he has as many HRs as he did last year. The SO are still an issue. His SO ratio has been .24% the last month, which is better. Just concerned it could blow up in the majors.

Edited July 12, 2025 by Donzo

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Mee too.

Going into this year I wated to see improved power and a better SO ration from Cassie. He's delivered on the power; SLG up over .100%  and he has as many HRs as he did last year. The SO are still an issue. His SO ratio has been .24% the last month, which is better. Just concerned it could blow up in the majors.

Yeah, with any prospect you'll have questions. Caissie's contact ability at higher levels is a question. I do think that the first few hundred PA's could look rather ugly. But do think after a decent learning curve, he will setting into a 28-32% K% hitter, and at that range, the batted ball quality and power would be able to carry him through as a good hitter regardless. 

But once it creeps over that, you're far more questionable. 

[muntjack]

Yeah,  Riley Greene is around 32% and has a 139 wRC+.  Caissie should walk more than Greene out of the gate.  I think he's ready. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, muntjack said:

Yeah,  Riley Greene is around 32% and has a 139 wRC+.  Caissie should walk more than Greene out of the gate.  I think he's ready. 

Maybe, but ready can still be ugly when he first comes up. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Over the last 2 combined full seasons, only 10 qualified players (roughly 9%) had a K rate of 28+%.  4 of them had wRC+ of less than 100, only 3 were above 110.  It’s just an extremely rare profile to have repeated success.

[muntjack]

Obviously a K rate that high is a red flag, and correlates strongly with offensive struggles.  I was only saying there exist precedents where it has worked.