Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-11-25

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Over the last 2 combined full seasons, only 10 qualified players (roughly 9%) had a K rate of 28+%.  4 of them had wRC+ of less than 100, only 3 were above 110.  It’s just an extremely rare profile to have repeated success.

A fair point! However, I do want to point something out which makes this a little difficult to see, this is a sample size of just 10 hitters. Striking out this much in general is a rare feat at the MLB level. Within that, however, I'll frame it a slightly different way:

Between 2023 and 2024, ten qualified hitters struck out 28% (or more) of the time. Four of those were under 100 wRC+ but includes Ryan McMahon and Brenton Doyle, both of whom are defensive wizards and their offensive contributions are not really the primary reason they enter the lineup on a night-by-night basis. Three were above 110 wRC+, but Luis Robert and Eugenio Suarez were right at 110 and Elly De La Cruz was at 106 wRC+, meaning of those ten, six  had wRC+ of 110 or better, and two of those who didn't aren't there for their bats, anyways. 

While I agree, it's not a normal profile, I do think Caissie has more in common with the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Stowers, and Teoscar Hernandez than he does, say, Brenton Doyle or Ryan McMahon (not to say he's going to be those guys, but he's not a defensive wizard like Doyle and his profile fits those types much more).

 In that same 10 hitter sample size over 2023-2024, a big differentiator was home run power. If you hit 50+ combined home runs over the course of those two years, you were basically fine. Even Langoliers hit 52 and sat at a 98 wRC+. Now, I think that's a bit of a unique case, as he's a catcher and gets more leeway, so I think that's okay to point out too. Owen Caissie at 98 wRC+ probably isn't good enough! Just to parse that out a little more, if we drop to the very high 27% K% range, we add three more hitters, Tovar, Raleigh and Garcia. Tovar had an 87 wRC, the other two over 110 or above. Again, one of them didn't hit a bunch of home runs and two of them did. I'm sure it's obvious who just based on the names. 

So I think the answer to the Caissie question is two-fold. It's first, can the contact rate sit around the 28-32% range? If yes, that's likely going to keep the strikeouts in check just enough that you can survive. Above that and it becomes untenable, regardless of the second concern. Secondly, is he going to hit 25-30 home runs a season with that K-rate? Because if he is, he's much more likely a 110-115 wRC+ hitter (perhaps some peaks and valleys mixed in) as most players who strike out that much, are able to make that level with home runs offsetting it. If he isn't going to get to the power and hit a bunch of bombs, than the strikeout rate will likely eat him alive.