Cardinals (Fedde) vs Cubs (Boyd): 7/6/25, 5:10pm

[chibears55]

3 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

Cardinals really don’t have anything on us. If Jed improves the roster at the deadline, it’s over for the Cards. 

They came into the season with it being sort of a rebuild year, I think this series has just reminded them that they should stick to that plan.

Brewers dont usually spend much to upgrade and with their upcoming schedule the rest of month which ends with the Cubs, hopefully there will be enough distance between the two teams after that series that they decide not to do much of anything at the deadline. 

[Derwood]

Jordan Hicks in relief? Is he not taking Taillon's spot in the rotation? Does this mean a deal for a SP is iminent?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Derwood said:

He's not just fine. Results are results.

Results aren't predictive. Our goal isn't to determine "what Ian Happ is going to do last April 18th" but "what is Ian Happ going to do tomorrow". It's why teams don't function like reactionary fans. We live in the moment, the Cubs live for the next 3 months. 

Predictive models, expected data, processes, batted ball, BABIP, all of these things suggest he's doing things fine. For example, Ian Happ has a 117 wRC+ over his last 115 PA's. His BA is .177 but has a .145 BABIP. He's running a 10% barrel rate (about career norm), with a 15.7 BB% and a 23.5 K%. It's blatantly obvious that the processes should be around the .340 wOBA we are accustomed to, but a .145 BABIP is unsustainable.

He's fine. If he continues to keep these processes, he will be, roughly, the hitter we expect.

[BKHoo]

9 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

Cardinals really don’t have anything on us. If Jed improves the roster at the deadline, it’s over for the Cards. 

How about the Brewers? Their starting rotation is superior to ours. 

[Derwood]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

Results aren't predictive. Our goal isn't to determine "what Ian Happ is going to do last April 18th" but "what is Ian Happ going to do tomorrow". It's why teams don't function like reactionary fans. We live in the moment, the Cubs live for the next 3 months. 

Predictive models, expected data, processes, batted ball, BABIP, all of these things suggest he's doing things fine. For example, Ian Happ has a 117 wRC+ over his last 115 PA's. His BA is .177 but has a .145 BABIP. He's running a 10% barrel rate (about career norm), with a 15.7 BB% and a 23.5 K%. It's blatantly obvious that the processes should be around the .340 wOBA we are accustomed to, but a .145 BABIP is unsustainable.

He's fine. If he continues to keep these processes, he will be, roughly, the hitter we expect.

He's fine going forward is not the same as he's been fine over the last 100+ AB's

[Tryptamine]

Wicks doing a lot of pitching up in the zone, don't think that's a recipe for success with him

[BKHoo]

I like getting Boyd out after 87 pitches. He has been so fantastic and in this game there is no reason to get his pitch count up. 

[chibears55]

10 minutes ago, cubfansince77 said:

Yeah, he's been on my horsefeathers list for quite some time. He's really slowed down in all aspects....running, hitting, defense is still decent I guess. Just looks tired frankly. Off day tomorrow and he needs it. 

If they had a decent enough backup he could take a couple days off.

[Irrelevant Dude]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

No, he's just fine. He's had a bunch of bad luck. 

I cannot confirm or refute this analysis.  All I know is Happ seems to have a lot of terrible at bats.  To be fair though, the same could be said for PCA, so "terrible at bats" probably are not a good metric.

[bukie]

3 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

How about the Brewers? Their starting rotation is superior to ours. 

The Cubs' starters fWAR is 21st in baseball, lots of starting rotations are superior. Turns out having the best hitters, fielders, runners, and relievers also counts.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Derwood said:

He's fine going forward is not the same as he's been fine over the last 100+ AB's

No, he is also fine then, too. If he was making a ton of soft contact, if he was chasing a ton, if he was not controlling the strike zone, if his processes were poor, then we can blame him a bit for the .145 BABIP (though no MLB hitter can sustain a BABIP that low).

But they weren't. Over the course of 162 games, sometimes the ball goes your way, and sometimes it doesn't. If you're doing the right things and the ball isn't going your way you are fine. Much like if a hitter is doing a lot of things poorly and the ball is just landing...he really isn't doing fine...he's just getting lucky.

I'm sorry, I will not agree with this. 

[BKHoo]

Shaw nice play. 

[JHBulls]

3 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

How about the Brewers? Their starting rotation is superior to ours. 

I didn’t leave them out because I don’t consider them a challenger. They very much are. Was only focussing on the Cardinals for my post. 

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Jordan Hicks in relief? Is he not taking Taillon's spot in the rotation? Does this mean a deal for a SP is iminent?

Yeah I’m not sure what they do the next time Taillon’s spot comes up. They do have the ability to skip his spot this turn in the rotation due to the off day but seems like Craig doesn’t like to do that (and rightfully so tbh with the Cubs in the position they are in and guys like Horton and Boyd going to get many more innings than they have had in recent years. )

[bukie]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I cannot confirm or refute this analysis.  All I know is Happ seems to have a lot of terrible at bats.  To be fair though, the same could be said for PCA, so "terrible at bats" probably are not a good metric.

It's MLB. If you are out 2 of every 3 ABs, you are an above average player (league average OBP is .316).

[BKHoo]

Just now, bukie said:

The Cubs' starters fWAR is 21st in baseball, lots of starting rotations are superior. Turns out having the best hitters, fielders, runners, and relievers also counts.

Agreed - my point was Milwaukee is the team to worry about, not the cards. We are better in every way than the Cards. The Brewers are a good team. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I cannot confirm or refute this analysis.  All I know is Happ seems to have a lot of terrible at bats.  To be fair though, the same could be said for PCA, so "terrible at bats" probably are not a good metric.

I would also posit this, and I don't mean this towards you or anyone; we see a lot of what we want to see. And we remember a lot of what we want to remember. We also tend to remember things that upset us more than we remember other things; it's a lot easier to remember the Ryan Pressly blowup against the Giants than it is a 4-batter-faced appearance against the Pirates where he gave up one hit but struck out two, ya know? 

Data wise, Happ's fine. PA wise? I think subjective. 

[Donzo]

5 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Results are results.

Yes, and @Jason Ross  detailed those results, which shows he's fine.

I'll say this about Happ. Physically he use to look like Nico, now he looks like Schwarber. Losing 10 lbs may be helpful.

[Wilson A2000]

5 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Jordan Hicks in relief? Is he not taking Taillon's spot in the rotation? Does this mean a deal for a SP is iminent?

Maybe due to the off day tomorrow they are waiting a few games to give Wicks a start

[bukie]

I'm so glad in a game thread where the Cubs are throttling the Cardinals the wall of ignorance is focused on how Ian Happ and Matt Shaw are problems.

[Hot Sauce]

This game has been weird.

[Derwood]

The results were not fine, though. "doing everything right" does not mean that the results were good. This is a results-based game. I'm not saying Happ needs to do things differently, but let's not get buried in the analysis to the point where we're giving a player credit for what statistically SHOULD have happened rather than what DID happen

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Wilson A2000 said:

Maybe due to the off day tomorrow they are waiting a few games to give Wicks a start

Wicks was supposed to follow Pomeranz yesterday, but due to Drew getting knocked out early, they went with Flexen and the plan clearly changed. 

I actually think Flexen will get the start next time through or they will go BP game. They only need the rotation spot one more time before July 22nd.

[bukie]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Wicks was supposed to follow Pomeranz yesterday, but due to Drew getting knocked out early, they went with Flexen and the plan clearly changed. 

I actually think Flexen will get the start next time through or they will go BP game. They only need the rotation spot one more time before July 22nd.

Call me an optimist, but I have a feeling there will be another starter on the roster by July 22nd.

[BKHoo]

Matt should have crushed that ball. He is just off