Owen Caissie Is Progressing More Than We May Have Realized

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Owen Caissie feels like he's been in the Cubs' system forever, to the point where it's easy to forget that he's not even 23 yet. To put it another way, Owen Caissie is younger than Pete Crow-Armstrong (who was in the same draft class as Owen) and Matt Shaw, despite being acquired before either of them. With that, I do believe prospect fatigue can creep in, a real-life version of the Toy Story meme where we want to focus on the new and forget the old. Don't feel like I'm coming at you, I've spent more time paying attention to Ivan Brethowr this year than Owen Caissie, and I've been the self-anointed captain of the Caissie Fan Club dating back to the 2020 draft!

Beyond just prospect fatigue, however, it's easy for progress to hide in plain sight. Jumping over to Caissie's FanGraphs page will show you his 2025 season line. On the year, the left-hander has a pretty darn good 131 wRC+, a .273/.377/.518 batting line, a 13.2 walk rate, and a pretty uninspiring 31.2 strikeout rate. Reading that line lets you know some important things: Caissie has hit the ball really well, but has struck out more than you'd like (and more than he's done in recent times). 

However, I think diving deeper into what our protagonist is doing will help us see that some impressive progress has been happening under the hood, and that, coupled with prospect fatigue, suggests he's been better than those numbers indicate. To do so, we'll have to go all the way back to 2024, when Caissie was first promoted to Iowa. Through the MiLB All-Star break, Caissie showed improved contact, striking out 27.8% of the time, while also posting a solid 113 wRC+. He wasn't hitting the ball out of the ballpark, but it was progress.

After the ASB, something changed in Caissie. The wRC+ remained virtually identical, as after the pause, he had a 117 wRC+, but the change was hidden; Caissie started hitting the ball in the air more and with authority. We can see this reflected in his isolated slugging, which jumped nearly .80 points, from .164 to .240; a massive shift. We can see this just in the raw numbers as well, as he hit eight home runs through his first 331 plate appearances and then 11 over his last 218. There was an associated launch angle shift that helped this out. Not everything was perfect, as this shift also saw Caissie's K% and contact rate go backward. He was sacrificing some contact for home runs. But the progress was happening.

Entering this year, and being blocked at the highest level, Caissie was again placed in Iowa. As I've already pointed out, Caissie is having a better season in terms of wRC+, jumping from good-not-great to being a top-10 wRC+ hitter in all of Triple-A, but the K% appears to be improving as the year has moved along. According to Bryan Smith, Caissie has dropped his whiff rate for three consecutive months, and his K% in June is currently sitting at 28.4%. This is right around where Caissie was in the first half of last season, which suggests he's getting more comfortable with his approach and swing change and seeing the ball better.

As the year has gone on, there's been a significant increase in zone-swing, in not chasing pitching out of the zone and a downward trend in strikeouts on the whole have gone with it. By looking just at the 2025 K%, you'd come away thinking he's not making progress, but these trends have been occurring all year. By swinging more often in the zone, he can avoid getting into bad counts. There's been a further evolution in his approach over his last 100 plate appearances or so. 

If you're going to hold out hope that the Cubs' prospect is going to magically drop to a sub-25% strikeout rate, then I have bad news for you; it's not going to happen. He's likely to always run inflated K rates; it's a feature not a bug. But with the improvements in his launch angle, his willingness to hit more home runs, with the excellent exit velocity, he's more than capable of trading some strikeouts for home runs. The approach change of swinging more often in the zone while whiffing less will help to keep these down. He's a patient hitter, and has probably been too patient. Jumping on strikes early in the count (and specifically, fastballs) will help eliminate these issues. 

There's a common saying in prospect-land and that "development is not linear" and I think the last one and a half months of Caissie's time in Iowa can help show that. It looked like he had taken a step forward with his contact rates at the beginning of last year only to look like he had taken two steps backwards. But within those steps we can see the progression of his power, his swing, and his approach. His contact rate over his last 100 PA's mirrors that of his first-100, just now with much more power and damage. We're seeing the best version of the outfielder right now, someone who's capable of keeping the strikeouts in check just enough to where he is a menace at the plate. 

If you're concerned that all of this is just him being a repeater at the level, I think that's a fair critique but one that I'm not entirely sure is the answer here. With a swing change and an approach change, as well as being just 22-years-of-age (as of this writing, his birthday is just in a few days) I believe that this is likely something else; that Caissie has been specifically working on fixing his swing and his approach. To assuage those fears a bit more, Michael Busch was already 24 in his first go at Triple-A with the Dodgers when he posted a middling 111 wRC+ only to come back a year later at the not-as-ripe-age of 25, hitting to the tune of a 155 wRC+ in his second go. While anecdotal, his career has been just fine, and it's pretty clear that progress was made over those two years and it wasn't just repeating. I think we're seeing something more akin to what Michael Busch was able to do over his time than just saying "well, he's just a repeater". Nuance is key.

What happens with Owen Caissie and the Cubs will be interesting moving forward. There's an argument to be made that if the Cubs are unwilling to spend on Kyle Tucker that their best internal option in right-field next year may be the former 2020 second-round selection which creates an interesting conundrum for the team as the deadline approaches. If they're willing to pony up for Tucker, it means that Caissie may not realistically have a spot with the organization if they view him behind potential DH Moises Ballesteros in the prospect pecking order. As well, it's likely that teams will also be privy to the approach improvement and that the will coming asking for him as a primary return in any trade. How the Cubs approach that this will be important and could help signal how they internally feel about his long term projections.

The overall point, however, is that while it's easy to look at the data and think that he's had a down-season or hasn't lived up to the hype, that I think there's things occurring below the surface that point to the outfielder rounding into the player we hoped for. And whether or not this aides the Cubs directly on the field (either in 2025 or 2026) or through trade, that real progress is happening. Don't let a shiny new toy or a full-season line cloud the change; Owen Caissie is turning into a much better player right before our eyes.

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What do you think of Owen Caissie? Do you think he's tradebait? Are you encouraged with the approach improvements? Let us know in the comment section below

 

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[Bertz]

Yeah Caissie's batted ball profile has been better basically from the jump this year.  And whether by coincidence or consequence it took until basically now for his contact numbers to get back to even the lowly levels they were at last year.

But YoY he has:

- Cut 6 points from his GB rate

- Added 11 points to his hard hit rate

- More than doubled his barrel rate

- Added 3 points to his pull rate

Add it all together and it's quite a bit of change.  His batted ball profile last year was in line with 2025 Nick Castellanos.  His batted ball profile this year looks like what Kyle Stowers is doing during his breakout.

I think it's a good question of whether it's enough considering he's ~800 PAs deep at AAA.  But it is a lot.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah Caissie's batted ball profile has been better basically from the jump this year.  And whether by coincidence or consequence it took until basically now for his contact numbers to get back to even the lowly levels they were at last year.

But YoY he has:

- Cut 6 points from his GB rate

- Added 11 points to his hard hit rate

- More than doubled his barrel rate

- Added 3 points to his pull rate

Add it all together and it's quite a bit of change.  His batted ball profile last year was in line with 2025 Nick Castellanos.  His batted ball profile this year looks like what Kyle Stowers is doing during his breakout.

I think it's a good question of whether it's enough considering he's ~800 PAs deep at AAA.  But it is a lot.

I'm fairly encouraged, myself. He's still more-than-young-enough that I think we're short of "repeated bias" on him, and I think the improvement he's showing is more along the lines of real change. 

The good news is that if he can show up at, say, age-23 or age-24 and repeat what Kyle Stowers is doing, that there's probably more ceiling in there than even Kyle has at his age. But I think Kyle Stowers is a pretty good blueprint for what we could see Caissie become, albeit, potentially a slightly better fielder. I think there's a bit more athleticism to Caissie's game (at least at his age), than Kyle's statcast page suggests he possesess but I also cannot say I've seen enough of Stowers out there to make a definitive answer. 

[CubinNY]

Is he less or more likely to get traded at the deadline? It would’ve been great if they locked up Tucker making OWNKC or Alcantara easily traded. 
 

I tend to be a prospect hugger, so I’d rather they keep him at least until the offseason and see what happens. 

[Jason Ross]

44 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Is he less or more likely to get traded at the deadline? It would’ve been great if they locked up Tucker making OWNKC or Alcantara easily traded. 
 

I tend to be a prospect hugger, so I’d rather they keep him at least until the offseason and see what happens. 

I'm a far bigger fan of moving Alcantara over Caissie. Granted, that's probably for a few reasons; Owen has always kind of been "my guy" so I'm a little biased. Beyond just that, Alcantara's not having as good of a year and he's super struggling on anything not-a-fastball this year. His defensive position gives him a wider runway, but the bat has some concerning flags in it. 

I do think the Cubs kind of have to start hitching some wagons to some guys. Even if they don't sign Tucker, there's probably only two, maximum spots for the crew of Alcantara, Caissie, Ballesteros, and Long. At some point you have to pick some and move others. The Cubs are too good this year to skip the deadline and if you can use some of these prospects to get controllable pieces, I think you have to do it. 

My personal hope would be that teams see Alcantara's ceiling (6"6 CF'er who can play the position at a 55-60 grade with power) and tend to overlook the flags I see; or see a fix and that the Cubs can use him (plus some others) to fill the rotation in a nice way. Others are probably more interested in moving Caissie. 

[JBears79]

Personally i dont think you can trade ONKC until you have Tucker locked up.

[muntjack]

Had I finished my rankings, Caissie would have been my #1.  His ceiling is still nuts, and I'm more confident than ever that his floor is at least a decent major-league career.  Do not trade unless for a holy- horsefeathers, no doubt ace.  

[baseball_GSP]

5 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm fairly encouraged, myself. He's still more-than-young-enough that I think we're short of "repeated bias" on him, and I think the improvement he's showing is more along the lines of real change. 

The good news is that if he can show up at, say, age-23 or age-24 and repeat what Kyle Stowers is doing, that there's probably more ceiling in there than even Kyle has at his age. But I think Kyle Stowers is a pretty good blueprint for what we could see Caissie become, albeit, potentially a slightly better fielder. I think there's a bit more athleticism to Caissie's game (at least at his age), than Kyle's statcast page suggests he possesess but I also cannot say I've seen enough of Stowers out there to make a definitive answer. 

What's interesting, as most people probably don't know, is Kyle Tucker repeated AAA at the same ages as Caissie. The main difference is Tucker was really good his first year, and got a taste. His second year was actually worse, still very good, and then he got another taste. In my opinion, if the cubs have any ideas of keeping Caissie, you have to give him exposure to MLB pitching at some point this season. I'm a big Caissie guy, definitely bias there, so I am naturally inclined to say let Tucker walk, and let Caissie take Right. But, I am assuming Seiya will take right, and Caissie plays DH. Or, they spilt time in right together. I imagine Seiya is less willing to play DH behind a rookie than he is sacrificing for the team for a player like Tucker. I could care less personally, I just want a lineup with Caissie, PCA, and Shaw. But, mainly, as much as I like Happ, I would pay Tucker, put him in left, and let Caissie take right. Others might not agree. I understand that, and respect it as Happ is a pretty good player overall, and he helps make the cubs outfield defense spectacular. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, baseball_GSP said:

What's interesting, as most people probably don't know, is Kyle Tucker repeated AAA at the same ages as Caissie. The main difference is Tucker was really good his first year, and got a taste. His second year was actually worse, still very good, and then he got another taste. In my opinion, if the cubs have any ideas of keeping Caissie, you have to give him exposure to MLB pitching at some point this season. I'm a big Caissie guy, definitely bias there, so I am naturally inclined to say let Tucker walk, and let Caissie take Right. But, I am assuming Seiya will take right, and Caissie plays DH. Or, they spilt time in right together. I imagine Seiya is less willing to play DH behind a rookie than he is sacrificing for the team for a player like Tucker. I could care less personally, I just want a lineup with Caissie, PCA, and Shaw. But, mainly, as much as I like Happ, I would pay Tucker, put him in left, and let Caissie take right. Others might not agree. I understand that, and respect it as Happ is a pretty good player overall, and he helps make the cubs outfield defense spectacular. 

Welcome to NSBB!

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, baseball_GSP said:

What's interesting, as most people probably don't know, is Kyle Tucker repeated AAA at the same ages as Caissie. The main difference is Tucker was really good his first year, and got a taste. His second year was actually worse, still very good, and then he got another taste. In my opinion, if the cubs have any ideas of keeping Caissie, you have to give him exposure to MLB pitching at some point this season. I'm a big Caissie guy, definitely bias there, so I am naturally inclined to say let Tucker walk, and let Caissie take Right. But, I am assuming Seiya will take right, and Caissie plays DH. Or, they spilt time in right together. I imagine Seiya is less willing to play DH behind a rookie than he is sacrificing for the team for a player like Tucker. I could care less personally, I just want a lineup with Caissie, PCA, and Shaw. But, mainly, as much as I like Happ, I would pay Tucker, put him in left, and let Caissie take right. Others might not agree. I understand that, and respect it as Happ is a pretty good player overall, and he helps make the cubs outfield defense spectacular. 

1st off - welcome to NSBB! Glad you're here. 

The Cubs should in no way let Tucker walk to play Caissie. There's probably room for both if they want, but Tucker is a better player than Caissie will be in 99.5% of outcomes. Tucker's on pace for 6-7 fWAR this year. I really cannot imagine a path for Caissie getting there without him turning into a 50 home run guy...which, let's be real, is pretty unlikely. 

But they may have to make a choice between Happ and Seiya this offseason. Both are signed only one more year, and if they do keep Tucker, I am not sure how much spending they will do. Caissie could conceivably be a DH or a corner OF'er in either spot (he's seen a little run in LF and shouldn't have an issue moving from RF to LF if you think he's capable, which I do, or the interim). 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Ideal scenario is Tucker is resigned, ONKC moves to LF full time when Happ’s contract expires, he’s the next up when an OF is needed. 

He and Wiggins are my only untouchables in the minors, Mo Baller is close.

 

[gflore34]

2 hours ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Ideal scenario is Tucker is resigned, ONKC moves to LF full time when Happ’s contract expires, he’s the next up when an OF is needed. 

He and Wiggins are my only untouchables in the minors, Mo Baller is close.

 

I agree and none of the mentioned SP targets have a price tag that requires either or them. I do believe the Marlins, etc. will ask, as they should, but, they're not getting a Wiggins or Cassie from the Cubs.

[Jason Ross]

12 hours ago, gflore34 said:

I agree and none of the mentioned SP targets have a price tag that requires either or them. I do believe the Marlins, etc. will ask, as they should, but, they're not getting a Wiggins or Cassie from the Cubs.

I think they very well may get Caissie for Alcantara. There seems to be some positive progression in Alcantara's game. The velocity on the season has been around what we have always seen, sitting 97-98mph on average and Stuff+ still likes the shape. He's struggled with location, which to me suggests more along the lines of rust (and potentially Marlins lack of pitching infrastructure). 

Over his last three starts, Alcantara has a 22.4 K%, a sub 5 walk%, a 2.12 ERA, and an xFIP of 3.38. Now, yes, two of those starts were Colorado and Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia is mixed in too. I think there's a decent reason to believe that as Sandy works back from missing 1.5+ years he'll begin to find the consistency he's lacked. With his control and ceiling, he's a decent bet to cost a top-50 prospect + some.

[gflore34]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think they very well may get Caissie for Alcantara. There seems to be some positive progression in Alcantara's game. The velocity on the season has been around what we have always seen, sitting 97-98mph on average and Stuff+ still likes the shape. He's struggled with location, which to me suggests more along the lines of rust (and potentially Marlins lack of pitching infrastructure). 

Over his last three starts, Alcantara has a 22.4 K%, a sub 5 walk%, a 2.12 ERA, and an xFIP of 3.38. Now, yes, two of those starts were Colorado and Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia is mixed in too. I think there's a decent reason to believe that as Sandy works back from missing 1.5+ years he'll begin to find the consistency he's lacked. With his control and ceiling, he's a decent bet to cost a top-50 prospect + some.

Looked at his game logs, as you said, it appears he's on an upward trajectory, today he's facing the Braves.  Another good start may signal he's nearly back.

[Donzo]

22 hours ago, muntjack said:

Had I finished my rankings, Caissie would have been my #1.  His ceiling is still nuts, and I'm more confident than ever that his floor is at least a decent major-league career.

+1

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

I think they very well may get Caissie for Alcantara. There seems to be some positive progression in Alcantara's game. The velocity on the season has been around what we have always seen, sitting 97-98mph on average and Stuff+ still likes the shape. He's struggled with location, which to me suggests more along the lines of rust (and potentially Marlins lack of pitching infrastructure). 

Over his last three starts, Alcantara has a 22.4 K%, a sub 5 walk%, a 2.12 ERA, and an xFIP of 3.38. Now, yes, two of those starts were Colorado and Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia is mixed in too. I think there's a decent reason to believe that as Sandy works back from missing 1.5+ years he'll begin to find the consistency he's lacked. With his control and ceiling, he's a decent bet to cost a top-50 prospect + some.

I would agree with this. I would guess Cassie and a pitching prospect not named Wiggins. Maybe the Cubs have to even throw in a 3rd lower level piece. Alcantara, if healthy and fully back, would be a great add this year and for a few years after as well. If the Cubs are serious about bringing Tucker back they can afford to move Cassie. If/when either Suzuki or Happ leaves Ballasteros, Alcantara or Long can fill in at DH/OF.

[Bertz]

Caissie was very nearly a Marlin this winter already, and Alcantara's likely to be the best SP on the market.  You shouldn't get too attached to specific names when thinking about trades, but at the same time if I was drafting potential trades based on likelihood Caissie for Alcantara would be my #1 pick by a mile.

[JunkyardWalrus]

I know I wouldn’t trade Cassie for Alcantara straight up. It still feels like a trap. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, JunkyardWalrus said:

I know I wouldn’t trade Cassie for Alcantara straight up. It still feels like a trap. 

I think it depends on a lot. If the last-17-innings is an indication of who Alcantara is for the next 1.5 years he's more than worth a top-50 prospect, especially if you believe the Cubs pitching infrastructure is better than Miami's. Thankfully, I doubt there's a trade that's going to go down for the next few weeks so that 17-inning-sample will likely jump to around 30 or so to give you a better idea. 

But the way I think we should approach any trade we discuss (real, rumor, idea or otherwise) is that "if it doesn't feel like it hurts, it's probably not realistic". Would it kind of suck to trade Caissie or Alcantara or Ballesteros or whatever? Yeah it would. But that's what real trades take, generally, a little pain from us to acquire something good.

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Caissie was very nearly a Marlin this winter already, and Alcantara's likely to be the best SP on the market.  You shouldn't get too attached to specific names when thinking about trades, but at the same time if I was drafting potential trades based on likelihood Caissie for Alcantara would be my #1 pick by a mile.

Yeah. I think it's very likely that we lose at least one of the Caissie, Ballesteros, Alcantara, Rojas, or Wiggins group if they acquire something above the Andrew Heaney tier of pitcher. I'm not sure who it'll be, but headlining a trade with like James Triantos and Christian Franklin for a SP you slot in using pen for a playoff rotation is a pipedream that happens only on reddit, bluesky and forums.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even in his hot streaks at AAA there's still a lot of swing and miss with Caissie.  I think you're still looking at someone who is going to have to stretch to be a first division regular, especially as his body continues maturing and playing OF becomes more of a stretch.  If you have someone who is gonna value him more than that, you gotta pull the trigger.

[muntjack]

Agree to disagree.  I think a high-ceiling guy like Caissie has more value to this organization than a guy like Cam Smith, who has a higher floor.  And Cam Smith was the main piece returning an MVP candidate.  Alcantara is controlled, but currently has nowhere near the value of Kyle Tucker. 

 

This is really just personal preference.  Alcantara for Alcantara, that I can live with. Add Birdsell or another non-Wiggins arm of their choosing and a low-level lotto ticket. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

Agree to disagree.  I think a high-ceiling guy like Caissie has more value to this organization than a guy like Cam Smith, who has a higher floor.  And Cam Smith was the main piece returning an MVP candidate.  Alcantara is controlled, but currently has nowhere near the value of Kyle Tucker. 

 

This is really just personal preference.  Alcantara for Alcantara, that I can live with. Add Birdsell or another non-Wiggins arm of their choosing and a low-level lotto ticket. 

Very curious why you'd describe Smith as the high floor trade candidate and Caissie as the high ceiling.  Even ignoring Smith's 2025 since we couldn't have had that information, I would've described them the opposite.

[muntjack]

31 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Very curious why you'd describe Smith as the high floor trade candidate and Caissie as the high ceiling.  Even ignoring Smith's 2025 since we couldn't have had that information, I would've described them the opposite.

I can see that.  For me it's the elite exit velo.  I don't have to squint to see a Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber type bat in time.  Cam Smith has plenty of tools, though.