Starting rotation options available now

[Bertz]

54 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The think with Tucker, thou I do think they will retain him, is if they don’t where do they spend the money? Schwarber? Bellinger? Who? I think they will add a big bat and maybe an arm, depending on what they add this season. If they added Schwarber at something like 6/$162m  would that make up for not getting Tucker? Maybe Bellinger 6/$138m? As I said, I think they will retain Tucker, but there are other, cheaper, options. 

Pitching.  Let's call it Michael King at something like 6/$150M a year and Ryan Helsley at something like 4/$80M.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Pitching.  Let's call it Michael King at something like 6/$150M a year and Ryan Helsley at something like 4/$80M.

Also an option. Maybe bat AND pitching. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A not entirely fair but not entirely unfair observation from today's games:

Seth Lugo: 5.2 IP, 0 R, 8 Ks vs the Dodgers

Sandy Alcantara 6 IP, 7 R, 4 K vs the Dbacks

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

A not entirely fair but not entirely unfair observation from today's games:

Seth Lugo: 5.2 IP, 0 R, 8 Ks vs the Dodgers

Sandy Alcantara 6 IP, 7 R, 4 K vs the Dbacks

But Lugo is lucky so he can’t be good. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Can anyone explain to me the disparity in team fWAR and team bWAR? Why are the cubs ranked number 2 in bWAR while tied for 10th in fWAR with Toronto and behind Seattle and Minnesota?

Edited June 29, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Can anyone explain to me the disparity in team fWAR and bWAR totals? Why are the cubs ranked number 2 in bWAR while tied for 10th in fWAR with Toronto and behind Seattle and Minnesota?

I don't think your charts cover the same date ranges, because that's not what FG is showing for YTD right now

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't think your charts cover the same date ranges, because that's not what FG is showing for YTD right now

I googled it 2 hours ago. Is there page that’s up to date that I missed? Seems odd they’re tied with a team with a 112 run differential disparity.

i assume they’re projecting the remaining 79 games?

Edited June 29, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I googled it 2 hours ago. Is there page that’s up to date that I missed? Seems odd they’re tied with a team with a 112 run differential disparity.

I'm kinda of wondering if that page from FG is projected rest of season and not current YTD?  Do you still have the links?

[Geographyhater8888]

Just now, Bertz said:

I'm kinda of wondering if that page from FG is projected rest of season and not current YTD?  Do you still have the links?

That’s my assumption that they’re projecting the next 79 games. I wish I could find their current totals. Just curious what it’s based off of. Mariners Twins and Blue Jays are these sleeping giants?

[Geographyhater8888]

bWAR strongly prioritizes run differential/SOS and pythag win loss record.

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm kinda of wondering if that page from FG is projected rest of season and not current YTD?  Do you still have the links?

It’s projected rest of the season, another table projects the full season. Very conservative estimates. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You have to add from two different pages but best I can tell the Cubs are 2nd in season to date fWAR as well.  

But to your question, the simplest way to think about how they differ is they are using different defensive metrics(fWAR's are generally better), and bWAR tends to be more reflective of results(especially for pitchers) while fWAR's is more predictive but can in smaller samples diverge from actual results.  The easy difference to conceptualize is bWAR's pitching WAR is looking at ERA while fWAR is looking at FIP.  Generally speaking I don't really have much use for bWAR, though it's fine for stuff like HOF arguments.

[Geographyhater8888]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

You have to add from two different pages but best I can tell the Cubs are 2nd in season to date fWAR as well.  

But to your question, the simplest way to think about how they differ is they are using different defensive metrics(fWAR's are generally better), and bWAR tends to be more reflective of results(especially for pitchers) while fWAR's is more predictive but can in smaller samples diverge from actual results.  The easy difference to conceptualize is bWAR's pitching WAR is looking at ERA while fWAR is looking at FIP.  Generally speaking I don't really have much use for bWAR, though it's fine for stuff like HOF arguments.

That’s my understanding, although bWAR doesn’t think highly of the cubs pitching staff either being 25th in bWAR and 15th in team ERA. 
 

my issue with fWAR if they’re too conservative. Tigers will have the best record in the AL with only 93 wins?

Edited June 29, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

Luis Severino is 0-7, 6.79, 1.59 WHIP at home and 2-1, 2.27, 1.03 WHIP on the road

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

my issue with fWAR if they’re too conservative. Tigers will have the best record in the AL with only 93 wins?

That's not fWAR, WAR is just the measure used to express Fangraphs' projections.  As for those projections, the conservative nature is just how those projections work.  It may help to think of it not as a guess at what the season will happen, but as the most likely outcome for each individual team.  But the fun of sports is that teams and players will inevitably not match their projection, so the projections have use to be an objective measure of team/player quality, but they also aren't giving you a confident answer to 'how many games will this team win'.

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Luis Severino is 0-7, 6.79, 1.59 WHIP at home and 2-1, 2.27, 1.03 WHIP on the road

Home xFIP: 4.40
Away xFIP: 4.75

He's managed that 2.27 ERA on the road with a K% under 13 with a BABIP against of .230. Severino has been really bad everywhere, but has luck hurting his home-ERA and luck aiding his road-ERA. Regardless, he's just been bad.

[Geographyhater8888]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That's not fWAR, WAR is just the measure used to express Fangraphs' projections.  As for those projections, the conservative nature is just how those projections work.  It may help to think of it not as a guess at what the season will happen, but as the most likely outcome for each individual team.  But the fun of sports is that teams and players will inevitably not match their projection, so the projections have use to be an objective measure of team/player quality, but they also aren't giving you a confident answer to 'how many games will this team win'.

It’s unlikely that the second best record n baseball has 93 wins, because I don’t know of an instance where that’s happened beyond strike shortened seasons but I understand the nature of it. No different than Vegas setting the highest NFL win totals at 10.5 over under.

 

I wish wins above average was a more popular metric. 

[Dfan25]

Looks like Mich Keller was the pitcher Levine was talking about . Nightendale saying Pirates have been in serious talks with Cubs for the last 10 days about him . Keller beat the Mets on Friday .

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Looks like Mich Keller was the pitcher Levine was talking about . Nightendale saying Pirates have been in serious talks with Cubs for the last 10 days about him . Keller beat the Mets on Friday .

I would be perfectly fine with adding him. He is signed through 2028.  Basically they can trade for him, use him half a year and get back similar prospects in the off season. Means you get a MOR starter without depleting the system. Leaves them the ability to add someone else. Or if they want to keep him he is a decent MOR starter who perhaps the Cubs pitching lab can get a bit more out of, for a reasonable salary for a few years. 

[Bertz]

24 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Looks like Mich Keller was the pitcher Levine was talking about . Nightendale saying Pirates have been in serious talks with Cubs for the last 10 days about him . Keller beat the Mets on Friday .

Mitch Keller is not my favorite arm.  But if you offered me the choice between taking a Keller/Bednar deal now or waiting in hope someone significantly better comes available over the next month, I'd lock in a deal with the Pirates.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Mitch Keller is not my favorite arm.  But if you offered me the choice between taking a Keller/Bednar deal now or waiting in hope someone significantly better comes available over the next month, I'd lock in a deal with the Pirates.

I can agree with that. Keller isn’t my favorite either. But he is better than Rea and probably Horton too, right now. Plus maybe he limits some innings for Horton. And if they add another pitcher at the deadline like Alcantara or someone else with control they could trade Keller next year. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Mitch Keller is not my favorite arm.  But if you offered me the choice between taking a Keller/Bednar deal now or waiting in hope someone significantly better comes available over the next month, I'd lock in a deal with the Pirates.

This is type of deal where Hoyer needs to be creative and make it like hes doing the Pirates a favor by taking Keller with a Bednar trade, who would be a great addition to the bullpen. 

Keller would be good to help keep the work load off of Horton in September and actually they could just shut Horton down for the season then.

Also, this cannot end up being the only SP they get cause they definitely need another top guy to go with Imanaga and Boyd.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

This is type of deal where Hoyer needs to be creative and make it like hes doing the Pirates a favor by taking Keller with a Bednar trade, who would be a great addition to the bullpen. 

Keller would be good to help keep the work load off of Horton in September and actually they could just shut Horton down for the season then.

Also, this cannot end up being the only SP they get cause they definitely need another top guy to go with Imanaga and Boyd.

Not sure what you mean by top guy. I don’t think they need a #1 type guy. I think a second pitcher being a rental would be ok. Kelly, Lugo sort of guy. Or a guy who has control left but isn’t as established like Cabrera or Soriano of the Angels. It would be great to get a guy like Gore or some other TOR starter, but I don’t see it happening. Maybe Alcantara, but I am. It sure where he fits in a rotation. TOR/MOR? 

Edited June 29, 2025 by Rcal10

[Dfan25]

Yeah , I think the only way I would jump on Keller right now is if Bednar comes as well . Even if that happens they would need another rental SP as well .
 

Not interested at all in giving Horton / Brown playoff innings , if they are fortunate enough to get into the playoffs .

Edited June 29, 2025 by Dfan25

[Dfan25]

If they don’t bring Tucker back , my backup would be Schwarber to DH and a top SP . Michael King and I believe Framber is a FA as well .