Cubs Season Flow Thread

[musclemom]

I do love this season so far, but I'm also being a little crititcal, I'm not sold yet on the pitching holding up for one. 

[Wilson A2000]

Bruce Levine is so bad. Completely in the pockets of the owners. 
 

 

[CubinNY]

The Cubs have a real opportunity in these next two (division) series to put the division away for all practical purposes. 

Edited June 15, 2025 by CubinNY

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs have a real opportunity in these next two (division) series to put the division away for all practical purposes. 

Way too early for this talk. Even a sweep of the Brewers doesn’t put them away. Yes, it makes things difficult for them but there are 86 games to go after these 3. And, I doubt the Cubs sweep. This next series is going to be tough. Hopefully they  win the first one then get one of the  next two after that. Last two pitchers in the series are going to be tough. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Ohtani has overtaken PCA slightly for the NL lead in fwar. PCA still leads the NL in dwar but Ke'Bryan Hayes is now .1 under him and Mason Wynn of all people is creeping up right behind them at 8.9. 

[Derwood]

Ohtani will jump ahead for good if he starts pitching as well

 

[17 Seconds]

I absolutely love PCA but i'd be shocked if he finishes close to the league lead in war

Edited June 16, 2025 by 17 Seconds

[We Got The Whole 9]

I want him to get the platinum glove. I still think he will finish with over 6 fwar, maybe 7. Somewhere in the top 3-5. Even this month he's still hitting above-average and his other tools provide such a sturdy foundation to build on. 

[Hot Sauce]

On 6/13/2025 at 9:45 AM, Wilson A2000 said:

Bruce Levine is so bad. Completely in the pockets of the owners. 
 

 

Tom Ricketts buys him a grande coffee every Wednesday. 

[Bertz]

Got curious about Ben Brown's season so I did some math.  86 guys last year pitched at least 50 innings in both the first half and the second half of the season. 

Amongst those guys their 1st half ERA had a correlation of 0.19 with their 2nd half ERA.  Their first half xFIP had a correlation of 0.46 with their 2nd half ERA.  Nearly 2.5x.

I know there's an impulse to say "who cares about underlying numbers he's getting shelled now" but the fact of the matter is this stuff tends to sort itself out sooner rather than later.  

(also on the flip side the Cubs' bullpen is outperforming its xFIP by a full run, so steel yourself for that inevitable regression)

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

(also on the flip side the Cubs' bullpen is outperforming its xFIP by a full run, so steel yourself for that inevitable regression)

yeah, we're going to need some strikeouts in a bad way. Nico and PCA can't get to everything.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

yeah, we're going to need some strikeouts in a bad way. Nico and PCA can't get to everything.

Apparently PCA can get to 95% of balls so I'm not real worried. 😜

[We Got The Whole 9]

Wrong thread

Edited June 20, 2025 by We Got The Whole 9

[Bertz]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

(also on the flip side the Cubs' bullpen is outperforming its xFIP by a full run, so steel yourself for that inevitable regression)

[Bertz]

Looking at roster resource the pitching opponents are finally slowing down.  They have us missing Sonny Gray against the Cardinals this week, and missing Hunter Brown against the Astros this weekend.  We do get Framber Valdez on Sunday, but otherwise nothing really scary. 

Although on the flip side I don't know that anyone coming up can really be called bad.  A lot of young guys who are mostly just solid at this stage of their career.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Looking at roster resource the pitching opponents are finally slowing down.  They have us missing Sonny Gray against the Cardinals this week, and missing Hunter Brown against the Astros this weekend.  We do get Framber Valdez on Sunday, but otherwise nothing really scary. 

Although on the flip side I don't know that anyone coming up can really be called bad.  A lot of young guys who are mostly just solid at this stage of their career.

Last I looked Gray was going Thursday. Did that change? And even if he does go, he isn’t anywhere near the Skubal, Skenes level. He is just a good pitcher. Nothing that special. 

Edited June 23, 2025 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Last I looked Gray was going Thursday. Did that change? And even if he does go, he isn’t anywhere near the Skubal, Skenes level. He is just a good pitcher. Nothing that special. 

The Athletic this AM mentioned that the Cardinals have been very diligent about giving their SPs five days of rest, and credit that with much of their surprising success.  So they could pitch Gray on Thursday, but it would be a break from what they've been doing all year.

[gflore34]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Looking at roster resource the pitching opponents are finally slowing down.  They have us missing Sonny Gray against the Cardinals this week, and missing Hunter Brown against the Astros this weekend.  We do get Framber Valdez on Sunday, but otherwise nothing really scary. 

Although on the flip side I don't know that anyone coming up can really be called bad.  A lot of young guys who are mostly just solid at this stage of their career.

I believe, with a few exceptions, they won't be facing guys with the swing and miss stuff like Skenes, Skubal, Gilbert, Gore and Wheeler, etc. for a while.  There's reason to be optimistic, facing a bunch of SP without overpowering stuff, who keep the ball down trying to generate the GB.  Believe, the Cubs, on the whole, have crushed these types. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

The Athletic this AM mentioned that the Cardinals have been very diligent about giving their SPs five days of rest, and credit that with much of their surprising success.  So they could pitch Gray on Thursday, but it would be a break from what they've been doing all year.

Ok, I just see he is listed as the starter. 

[Geographyhater8888]

On 6/16/2025 at 10:26 AM, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Ohtani has overtaken PCA slightly for the NL lead in fwar. PCA still leads the NL in dwar but Ke'Bryan Hayes is now .1 under him and Mason Wynn of all people is creeping up right behind them at 8.9. 

Out of curiosity, why is fWAR cited mote than bWAR? 

Edited June 24, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

On 6/13/2025 at 9:45 AM, Wilson A2000 said:

Bruce Levine is so bad. Completely in the pockets of the owners. 
 

 

Slash $40 million off of the payroll, sign Matt Boyd instead of Max Fried, Tom vetos signing Bregman over deferrals…… If Tucker isn’t a Cub next year it’ll confirm  The obvious.

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Out of curiosity, why is fWAR cited mote than bWAR? 

For pitchers, bWAR uses a formular that is more results based than fWAR. I find fWAR, thus, a better indicator for future performance as it uses xFIP over things like runs created.

For offense fWAR relies on wRC+ as its foundation where as bWAR uses OPS+. wRC+ is a better weighted offensive statistic than OPS+, which isnt horrible, but wRC+ was created to fix the issues inherent in OPS+.  In terms of "silver bullet offensive metrics" wRC+ stands the tallest and gives fWAR a better foundation for their numbers. 

On both sides I find fWAR a better model. WAR is imperfect and has some inherent flaws like all data points (no where near enough to discredit it however) but fWAR is the best publicly available all-encompassing number we have because foundationally, it uses better input data. At least in my opinion. 

(Though as an aside it remains somewhat interesting at times to compare the two).

Edited June 24, 2025 by Jason Ross

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

For pitchers, bWAR uses a formular that is more results based than fWAR. I find fWAR, thus, a better indicator for future performance as it uses xFIP over things like runs created.

For offense fWAR relies on wRC+ as its foundation where as bWAR uses OPS+. wRC+ is a better weighted offensive statistic than OPS+, which isnt horrible, but wRC+ was created to fix the issues inherent in OPS+.  In terms of "silver bullet offensive metrics" wRC+ stands the tallest and gives fWAR a better foundation for their numbers. 

On both sides I find fWAR a better model. WAR is imperfect and has some inherent flaws like all data points (no where near enough to discredit it however) but fWAR is the best publicly available all-encompassing number we have because foundationally, it uses better input data. At least in my opinion. 

(Though as an aside it remains somewhat interesting at times to compare the two).

What does wRC+ measure that OPS+ doesn’t? Do they account for opponents ERAs? Hit by pitches? Stolen bases? Taking advantage of hitter freindly dimensions in a hitter neutral park like Houston where you have a short porch and deep alleys? Etc 

[Outshined_One]

6 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What does wRC+ measure that OPS+ doesn’t? Do they account for opponents ERAs? Hit by pitches? Stolen bases? Taking advantage of hitter freindly dimensions in a hitter neutral park like Houston where you have a short porch and deep alleys? Etc 

The last one. It basically provides additional context based on things like park factors and league offensive environment in a given season.

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What does wRC+ measure that OPS+ doesn’t? Do they account for opponents ERAs? Hit by pitches? Stolen bases? Taking advantage of hitter freindly dimensions in a hitter neutral park like Houston where you have a short porch and deep alleys? Etc 

OPS by nature is flawed because of how it weighs OBP (on a scale from 0-1.000) and SLG (on a scale from 0-4.000), By weighing them equally, despite different scales, it creates an issue. Think of it like this, if I have two quarters, and four nickels, saying I have "six" is misleading. Having four quarters and two nickels is also "six" but one of these is more than the other. By saying that "one coin = the same" we create a situation where it could look like both are the same "six" but in one situation I have $.70 and the other I have $1.10. In a similar way, this is how OPS treats OBP and SLG, where two 100 OPS+ hitters are not really the same.

The "+" is helpful, in any data set, as when you see "+" it means that the number is adjusted for things such as hitting environment (we know that the steroid era was a different offensive environment than, say, the dead-ball era) and ballpark. Things like that. It can help us compare data sets year to year, but also player to player. We know hitting 80 games in Coors isn't like hitting 80 games in, say, Seattle. OPS+ does do this because it has the "+" involved, but the scaling issue is the prime culprit of where the issues are.

If you see an "x" this is "expected"; also using league data to determine what we should "expect" - useful to determine luck. 

wRC+ looks to fix the scaling issues within OPS while also still adding in the "+" that adjusts for hitting environments. It scales the two more accurately and thus creates a better silver-bullet one data point. In my coin example, it would determine one of us had 70 cents and the other a dollar-ten. From a personal standpoint, it's the best way to value offense in 2025. Using anything else is purposefully using outdated methods. OPS+ had it's time in the sun a decade or more ago, but we're beyond that. It's like using an iPod Touch instead of an iPhone with spotify on it. You-do-you, but there's more efficient ways of doing it, ya know?

bWAR fo pitching will factor in ERA, or at least, a version of it. But this is inherently where my issues come from bWAR; results based data doesn't really always equate well to prediction models. If the goal of data is not only to determine current value, but also help us predict value in the future, using results based like bWAR is less useful. FIP, which looks to eliminate noise around a pitcher, is better, IMO. Now, it does create an interesting conundrum with someone like Ben Brown. xFIP can tend to hide pitchers who give up contact that doesn't land as a HR; a double isn't really found within xFIP's data set, for example (FIP looks at things only a pitcher controls, such as Ks, BBs and HRs as a double would involve defense and that creates that "noise"). But the idea behind xFIP is that in situations like we see with Brown, eventually he'll give up home runs and we'll find the data.