Cubs (Imanaga) vs Diamondbacks (Pfaadt): 3/29/25, 7:10pm

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Dansby gets redemption for not catching that ball in 2023

[Crusader]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

Part of me gets that there was no one covering 3rd and he was hoping Dansby would make a throw somewhere but if you do that as the tying run with 2 outs in the 9th you’d better make sure you don’t get thrown out

Technically he didn’t get thrown out lol.

[Dfan25]

2 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

I know Jed promised him the role, but he’ll be on a short leash

I should have probably said high leverage situations . Even if you don’t use him in the 9th , he isn’t going to help them pitching like this . They need Merryweather to step up . 

[Andy]

I don't know what the QT commercial is but I am so damn sick of Chuck GPT that I'll happily find out

And thank goodness we won, I'm really not in the mood for White Hector Neris all year

[Derwood]

blah blah blah long season, but 2-3 feels so much better than 1-4

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, Andy said:

I don't know what the QT commercial is but I am so damn sick of Chuck GPT that I'll happily find out

And thank goodness we won, I'm really not in the mood for White Hector Neris all year

Pressly this year, Neris last year, Fulmer two years ago, different names same script - get shelled early, have a streak of effectiveness, build a little trust, get shelled again.

[Derwood]

3 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Pressly this year, Neris last year, Fulmer two years ago, different names same script - get shelled early, have a streak of effectiveness, build a little trust, get shelled again.

It's sad when we long for the days of Carlos Marmol or Rod Beck (RIP)

[gflore34]

Just now, Derwood said:

It's sad when we long for the days of Carlos Marmol or Rod Beck (RIP)

At least Pressly doesn't walk the world like Neris, granted he's throwing batting practice still, not as frustrating as watching walk after walk after walk.

[UMFan83]

27 minutes ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

Dansby gets redemption for not catching that ball in 2023

Not catching that ball single handedly kept us out of the playoffs and allowed Arizona to win a pennant.  (yeah yeah butterfly effect and all that).  Dansby has done a lot of awesome things but that one still eats away at me.

[Bertz]

Honestly pretty okay with that Pressly outing.  Velo was back where it's supposed to be, he got a bunch of whiffs, and aside from pitching around Marte he threw a bunch of strikes.

Geno Suarez is Soriano-level streaky and clearly on fire right now.  But process wise that was a good outing IMO.  I feel better about Pressly than I did this morning.

[gflore34]

I guess even the Braves are not immune, Neris blew opening day.  I'd be willing to bet, the Braves, unlike the Cubs, will not give Neris as long a leash.  He'll be gone well before June.

[muntjack]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Honestly pretty okay with that Pressly outing.  Velo was back where it's supposed to be, he got a bunch of whiffs, and aside from pitching around Marte he threw a bunch of strikes.

Man, I really appreciate your takes and think you're a wonderful part of this community but i fear you have outsmarted yourself here.  

In his last three seasons (ages 33,34,35),  Pressly's K% has gone from 35 to 27 to 23.  Opponents BA has gone from .178 to .215 to .259.  WHIP from 0.89 to 1.07 to 1.34.

If you want to say the guy isn't 100% washed, fine, that's fair.  Put him in low leverage spots and see how he fares.

To believe so strongly that this pattern will not continue at age 36 that you make the guy your closer is just an obvious mistake.   

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you've been convinced that Pressly should be a low leverage reliever since he was acquired I guess that's one thing, but we just can't do this on March 30th and pretend we have clear insight to what the rest of the season will look like based on 5 games across 2 weeks(and continents).  This goes doubly for pitchers who have had their season ramp disrupted more with the Tokyo trip, and have started with road games against 2 of the best offenses in the game.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I am going to wait till the Cubs get out of Arizona before I start getting annoyed with Pressly.

[muntjack]

Yeah,  I was annoyed the second he was promised the closer's role,  presumably because of the gray in his beard. 

Hodge was fantastic, but he needs to shave out a bald spot or something. 

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

I am going to wait till the Cubs get out of Arizona before I start getting annoyed with Pressly.

Obviously he needs to pitch, but he should be on a short leash. He looks pretty washed. 

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, muntjack said:

Man, I really appreciate your takes and think you're a wonderful part of this community but i fear you have outsmarted yourself here.  

In his last three seasons (ages 33,34,35),  Pressly's K% has gone from 35 to 27 to 23.  Opponents BA has gone from .178 to .215 to .259.  WHIP from 0.89 to 1.07 to 1.34.

If you want to say the guy isn't 100% washed, fine, that's fair.  Put him in low leverage spots and see how he fares.

To believe so strongly that this pattern will not continue at age 36 that you make the guy your closer is just an obvious mistake.   

 

I don't care what Pressly was 3 years ago, that is irrelevant.  All that matters is will he he good this year.  

Pressly was very good last year, and my suspicion is if he doesn't have the velo issues he had his first two outings he'll be fine. 

Maybe he won't!  But saying he's washed before we hit April is very very silly.

[BKHoo]

Maybe I am over reacting based on what I am seeing early — but wow do I love Tucker’s swing and don’t like Pressley’s stuff. 

Edited March 30, 2025 by BKHoo

[muntjack]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I don't care what Pressly was 3 years ago, that is irrelevant.  All that matters is will he he good this year. 

I'm having a hard time with this logic.   If he was 28, sure, who cares what he did at 25.

An aging curve is a real thing.  His peripherals getting worse is a pattern likely influenced by his age.  You can use this to help predict how he is likely to perform this year. 

I know you know this, so I'm confused. 

I don't really care that he gave up runs last night, I worry that a guy in decline is again going to be given a long leash in critical situations and it will cost the team wins. I thought this a month ago and if he converts the next 3 saves perfectly,  I'll feel the same. 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, muntjack said:

I'm having a hard time with this logic.   If he was 28, sure, who cares what he did at 25.

An aging curve is a real thing.  His peripherals getting worse is a pattern likely influenced by his age.  You can use this to help predict how he is likely to perform this year. 

I know you know this, so I'm confused. 

I don't really care that he gave up runs last night, I worry that a guy in decline is again going to be given a long leash in critical situations and it will cost the team wins. I thought this a month ago and if he converts the next 3 saves perfectly,  I'll feel the same. 

Aging curves rarely work linearly on an individual player basis.  And for pitchers especially it tends to be velo rather than years that leads to declines.

Case in point, ZiPS projected a 3.35 ERA for Pressly coming into the year.  The only guy better the also old Ryan Brasier (who tends to get shielded from tough lefties). 

A player who has declined is not necessarily bad, it matters if they declined from a really high perch like Pressly did.

[NorthsideAvenger]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Obviously he needs to pitch, but he should be on a short leash. He looks pretty washed. 

I agree but the start to this season has been wonky. ST then to Japan then back to ST and then start the yr @ Arizona.

He should be on a short leash (and Pressly should know this) but I'm still willing to give him a couple of weeks to get right.

[chopsx9]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

"Aging curves rarely work linearly" 

??

It wouldn't be a curve if it worked linearly - the drop pretty universally gets steeper.

I doubt anybody expects Pressley to be on the Cubs for more than a year regardless of how he pitches and he  will likely be out of the league within 3 years.  I'm not panicking at this point but if this was his last year as a MLB pitcher it wouldn't be all that noteworthy. 2024 zips had Ohtani at 3.7 WAR so I don't really know if that is something to hang your hat on.

[gflore34]

14 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

??

It wouldn't be a curve if it worked linearly - the drop pretty universally gets steeper.

I doubt anybody expects Pressley to be on the Cubs for more than a year regardless of how he pitches and he  will likely be out of the league within 3 years.  I'm not panicking at this point but if this was his last year as a MLB pitcher it wouldn't be all that noteworthy. 2024 zips had Ohtani at 3.7 WAR so I don't really know if that is something to hang your hat on.

I'd be surprised if he makes it through this season.

Edited March 30, 2025 by gflore34