Spring Training Moves/Transactions Thread

[thawv]

13 minutes ago, Michael Busch Light said:

Man is that embarrassing.  People need to try to force the Ricketts to sell.  They suck and they are cheap.  horsefeathers them.  

Nightengale isn't the most accurate reporter, but he's certainly not a liar.  Unless the front office guy flat out lied, it looks like 220 is their budget. 

They did say that the Cody money is not going back in to payroll, but will be reallocated to another part of the team. 

 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Michael Busch Light said:

Man is that embarrassing.  People need to try to force the Ricketts to sell.  They suck and they are cheap.  horsefeathers them.  

I agree. And I also admit I am part of the problem. I have been a fan for over 50 years. I love going to the game and watch just about every game they play. And I know for the owners to start spending money people will have to stop going. But I also know that if I don’t go someone else will. I probably have another 10-15 years of going to 15-20 games a year. If I knew one year of boycotting the games would create change I would not go. But it will take years before people actually stop going. And my that time I might be too old to go again. So I separate myself and my distain for the ownership from my love of going to the game, and go. Not going doesn’t hurt the owners. As I said, someone else will take my seat. All it does is deprive me of doing what I enjoy. Somehow the math has to work to show Ricketts winning makes more money. More playoff games create more revenue. That is the only way he will spend more money. And he most likely wont sell. Cubs make money.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, thawv said:

Nightengale isn't the most accurate reporter, but he's certainly not a liar.  Unless the front office guy flat out lied, it looks like 220 is their budget. 

They did say that the Cody money is not going back in to payroll, but will be reallocated to another part of the team. 

 

$220M in pure money spent is different than money when determine the LT. I think I saw that Nightengale could be right with that $220 figure and the Cubs would be at around $231 for LT purposes. It still absolutely sucks, but the Cubs might have closer to $20M to spend to get to Nob’s number and he still be right. I think in pure money they are just under $200M spent. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

$220M in pure money spent is different than money when determine the LT. I think I saw that Nightengale could be right with that $220 figure and the Cubs would be at around $231 for LT purposes. It still absolutely sucks, but the Cubs might have closer to $20M to spend to get to Nob’s number and he still be right. I think in pure money they are just under $200M spent. 

I hope it's the "real money" payroll!  But whenever any team talks about payroll, it's always the CBT payroll.  Right now the Cubs real money payroll is about 191.2 million, with the CBT payroll number at around 209.4.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, thawv said:

I hope it's the "real money" payroll!  But whenever any team talks about payroll, it's always the CBT payroll.  Right now the Cubs real money payroll is about 191.2 million, with the CBT payroll number at around 209.4.

I get that. But I remember when this topic first came up and people were suggesting either Nightengale was wrong or Ricketts was wrong when he said he expects the number to end up close to the LT line. The explanation we got from someone here was both can be right. I think they can spend $20M and still have enough to make TDL deals on guys who might have a high salary. Now, that said, it absolutely doesn’t mean they will spend it. If they spend $20M now and added another $5M to $7M at the deadline both Nightengale and Ricketts could be correct. The problem is, I don’t see them spending that money. And really there isn’t much to spend it on if you believe Peller isn’t trading Cease. I think they may add a bat in a $5M or less contract and maybe a one arm, but I am not sure it is Robertson at $10M. Might end up Chafin at $5M. Tom still gets to pocket $20M - $25M. It is a win for Tom. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

If the Cubs don't spend the money saved via the Bellinger trade then the Tucker trade sucks.  The difference between Tucker and Bellinger is 2 wins, but we lose 3 seasons of a top 10 3B making pre-FA money, plus one of our best prospects, plus Wesneski.

3B was a black hole last year and we have a rookie with hardly any 3B experience plus a bunch of nobodies gunning for the job, and the middle infield coming back from surgery including a 2B who isn't even throwing on the field yet.

If the Bellinger money isn't spent then Shaw has to put up close to Paredes numbers for the Tucker trade to not be a wash even on a 1-year basis, and counting on a rookie for that is insane, and it would still look like a stupid deal long-term.

The difference based on projections is 2 wins. I believe it'll be more like 4. You really prop up projections as concrete. I see this as a 90+ win season. The defense is going to be insane and projections can never properly account for that. Look at the Brewers last year. The expectations for Shaw should be high. We shouldn't be so scared to throw him into the fire.

Edited February 16, 2025 by We Got The Whole 9

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The difference based on projections is 2 wins. I believe it'll be more like 4. You really prop up projections as concrete. I see this as a 90+ win season. The defense is going to be insane and projections can never properly account for that. Look at the Brewers last year. The expectations for Shaw should be high. We shouldn't be so scared to throw him into the fire.

I do think they will be close to 90 wins and maybe even win in the low 90’s. I also believe Shaw will be good. But they did not take full advantage of what they could have done to be dominate the division and be a real challenger to win the WS. If they were willing to go that high for Bregman I wish they would have had the same urgency with Burnes and signed him instead of Rea. IMO that would have made them a real threat to win a WS this year. And they could have done that and been under the LT line. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, thawv said:

If we assume that Nightengale or his front office source wasn't lying about the new budget being 220 million, they are pretty much done spending, while leaving about 10 million to spend during the season. 

Oh man.  Do you know where they said that?

I really hope this is all just for negotiation leverage, but Jed shoots pretty straight and will usually not comment rather than be deceptive.

[thawv]

16 hours ago, Stratos said:

Oh man.  Do you know where they said that?

I really hope this is all just for negotiation leverage, but Jed shoots pretty straight and will usually not comment rather than be deceptive.

A Nightengale article.  Now I'm seeing that he said that the 220 number is the cash payroll and not the CBT payroll.  Using that number, their end of season CBT payroll would land in the upper 230's. 

[Bull]

On 2/16/2025 at 2:56 AM, Stratos said:

If the Cubs don't spend the money saved via the Bellinger trade then the Tucker trade sucks.  The difference between Tucker and Bellinger is 2 wins, but we lose 3 seasons of a top 10 3B making pre-FA money, plus one of our best prospects, plus Wesneski.

3B was a black hole last year and we have a rookie with hardly any 3B experience plus a bunch of nobodies gunning for the job, and the middle infield coming back from surgery including a 2B who isn't even throwing on the field yet.

If the Bellinger money isn't spent then Shaw has to put up close to Paredes numbers for the Tucker trade to not be a wash even on a 1-year basis, and counting on a rookie for that is insane, and it would still look like a stupid deal long-term.

While I agree with most of what you said, I'll eat my hat at the end of the year if the difference between Bellinger and Tucker is less than 3 wins.

[Tryptamine]

They'd have been a better team if they had just not salary dumped Cody.

[CubinNY]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

They'd have been a better team if they had just not salary dumped Cody.

The Ricketts have another building to renovate or a balloon payment due on one of the properties they already own. 

[Petrey10]

I do not see this as a 90min team. 88 wins is my guess and that’s if things go well. Which doesn’t seem to happen much lately for the cubs.

 

I feel you guys at 90 or over are insane…..

 

just my opinion

[Tryptamine]

19 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

I do not see this as a 90min team. 88 wins is my guess and that’s if things go well. Which doesn’t seem to happen much lately for the cubs.

 

I feel you guys at 90 or over are insane…..

 

just my opinion

Has anyone said 90+? I've got them in the 86-87 range personally.

[Bertz]

Baseballprospectus has the team at 90-91 wins

Fangraphs Depth Charts (which is a combo of ZiPS and Steamer) has the team at 84-85

ZiPS only has the team at 86

I haven't dug into BPs numbers to know who it's particularly high/low on, but for those latter two if you presume the team is going to add Justin Turner and another reliever you can tack another win onto where they're at currently.

If you want a reason to take the over I think it's because of how insanely talented Iowa is.  But then again not sure guys are going to have the luxury of ~200 PAs of runway to get their feet under them before they figure things out like PCA got last year.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Petrey10 said:

I do not see this as a 90min team. 88 wins is my guess and that’s if things go well. Which doesn’t seem to happen much lately for the cubs.

 

I feel you guys at 90 or over are insane…..

 

just my opinion

So 88 is your guess and people who are at 90 are insane? So are people at 86 insane too? I mean that is also only 2 away from your guess. PECOTA has them at 91. I agree they have to play well to get to 90. They probably also need to either add a starting pitcher or a young guy has to step up. Maybe both. But I would never suggest anyone who thought they could win 90 has to be insane if I had then at 86-87 wins with the current team. I would say any team projected to win 86 games can easily be an 81-91 win team. 

[Bertz]

Mets still have SP depth, but you wonder if this pushes them over the edge on Cease.

 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Mets still have SP depth, but you wonder if this pushes them over the edge on Cease.

 

I’ve already given up hope for Cease, so doesn’t matter to me what happens there. But I really hope the Cubs at least add either Turner or Canha and either Robertson, Chafin or Finnegan this week. I don’t see them doing much else, and honestly not even sure they do this. 

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I’ve already given up hope for Cease, so doesn’t matter to me what happens there. But I really hope the Cubs at least add either Turner or Canha and either Robertson, Chafin or Finnegan this week. I don’t see them doing much else, and honestly not even sure they do this. 

I don't know why they haven't signed Canha yet.  I guess Jed is trying to wait him out and save another $50.

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

17 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I don't know why they haven't signed Canha yet.  I guess Jed is trying to wait him out and save another $50.

 

Why hasn't any team signed the guy who has 7 consecutive years of being an above average hitter? Maybe he's hurt, IDK. 2 months ago he said he had absolutely no market and here we are about to start the season and he's never mentioned being linked to any team. It's a little strange. 

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

I do not see this as a 90min team. 88 wins is my guess and that’s if things go well. Which doesn’t seem to happen much lately for the cubs.

 

I feel you guys at 90 or over are insane…..

 

just my opinion

As the roster is now, id go with 85 wins.

I think they just keep their heads above water all season, no long streaks either way.

 

[Rcal10]

59 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

As the roster is now, id go with 85 wins.

I think they just keep their heads above water all season, no long streaks either way.

 

I don’t know how they get there. I am sure there will be winning streaks and losing steaks but I can see 85 as a realistic number. Personally I have them at 86-87, but basically it is the same. With what both of us think, they can win 80-90 games and no one should be shocked. Things fall right they make 90. Things go poorly they are at 80. I would like to see a decent bat added and maybe another pen arm and they cut Merryweather. Might bring that win total up another game. And if they are contending at the TDL maybe adding a pitcher adds another win. They had a decent off season and should be a slight favorite in the division. But they should have done more. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Time for Jed to swoop in and take Devers off Boston's hands. How many 30m/yr 3b does one team need? 

He's about to be real unhappy it seems. Would be a ridiculous outcome to this offseason. 

Any word on a Vladdy extension yet? From what I can find he's running a countdown on his IG to tomorrow. Does he get moved if they know they can't extend him? Would it be now, or at the deadline?

 

 

[Hot Sauce]

My apologies if this is old news. Reports out of the enemy camp is that Arenado submitted a list of 5 or 6 teams that he would accept a deal, but isn’t discussing who those teams are/were. Uprooting his family seems to be one of his top concerns with waiving his NTC and would “have to make sense.” 

[Bertz]