2025 ZiPS projection

[Rex Buckingham]

 

 

preliminary look at the Cubs...

[KCCub]

Add another SP and one or two backend RP pieces and we are cooking. Guessing the breakdown is something like Tucker 5.7 and Suzuki 3.3 between RF and DH.

[squally1313]

These are....really good, right?

[mul21]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

These are....really good, right?

Position players outside of Tucker feel bullish and starting pitching feels a little bearish, so probably about on point as a whole in my amateur opinion.

[Cuzi]

Really need another top end SP, imo. 2.1 out of Boyd seems bullish and putting Assad down in Wicks spot seems so much more palatable.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Position players outside of Tucker feel bullish and starting pitching feels a little bearish, so probably about on point as a whole in my amateur opinion.

Luzurdo at 2.2 adds another win, but yeah, I guess pitching is a little lower than I'd like. Kinda drooling at the offensive projections though. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Szymborski did say DH should say 3.5 instead of 4.5, but still... optimistic

[Outshined_One]

Dansby's projection is certainly optimistic.

Going to guess these projections put us in the 90-95 win range?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

We really need Shaw to be a thing.

[mul21]

10 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Dansby's projection is certainly optimistic.

Going to guess these projections put us in the 90-95 win range?

If the base is still 48 for replacement level, then this is around 92.

[KCCub]

 

Fun little compare with the Red Sox -

[Bertz]

Wow, ZiPS has liked a number of players more than Steamer for a few years, namely Swanson and Busch, but I expected ZiPS to be like 2-3 wins north of steamer not like 6-7.

[squally1313]

Some very quick back of the envelope math on Cubs and other teams of interest (they have yet to do any other NL Central team):

• Cubs 48.6
• Braves 53.1
• Phillies 42.2
• Dodgers 56.5
• Giants (without Adames) 39.9
• Arizona 43.7

[Transmogrified Tiger]

yeah you add Luzardo and a good pen arm or two and you're neck and neck with the Braves for 2nd best projection in the NL

[Bertz]

26 minutes ago, mul21 said:

If the base is still 48 for replacement level, then this is around 92.

Something I learned recently from a Szymborksi chat is that the replacement level is 47.5, and that there is exactly 1000 WAR to be earned in a given season.  I guess that maths out to have league-wide WAR and league-wide wins line up at the end of the year.

[Derwood]

2.7 from 3B would be great.

4.5 from Tucker (if healthy) would be disappointing

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

2.7 from 3B would be great.

4.5 from Tucker (if healthy) would be disappointing

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I took it as positional fWAR and not player. Tucker and Suzuki are both listed in the RF/DH spot for a combined 9 fWAR. I would think it would be more like 5.5 for Tucker and 3.5 for Suzuki.

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I took it as positional fWAR and not player. Tucker and Suzuki are both listed in the RF/DH spot for a combined 9 fWAR. I would think it would be more like 5.5 for Tucker and 3.5 for Suzuki.

He updated DH to 3.5 (See my screenshot above for the updated sheet). But yes, it's positional value and probably around 5 for Tucker total and 3 for Suzuki from those two positions. We might see some games from Tucker at 1b, LF, or CF as well. 

[UMFan83]

Damn I'm blown away.  Hopefully it looks as good on the field as it does on paper

[David]

2 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

Dansby's projection is certainly optimistic.

Going to guess these projections put us in the 90-95 win range?

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Wow feels a bit like 16-17 again. If PCA hits, look out. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

If PCA goes down do they use Tucker in CF or just call up Alcantara?

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If PCA goes down do they use Tucker in CF or just call up Alcantara?

I would think Tucker moves to center and they bring up whoever is hitting best at AAA. But if that person is Alcantara, Tucker would just stay in right, 

[CubinNY]

44 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If PCA goes down do they use Tucker in CF or just call up Alcantara?

NOBODY BETTER START A horsefeathers INJURY LIST THREAD THIS YEAR. 

[BigSlick]

I haven't paid super close attention to anything with this team for a while, but 4.0 WAR for Crow-Armstrong sounds really...optimistic doesn't it? 

EDIT: Well looking at his stats from last year, he had 2.3 with less than a season starting and half the year not being able to swing the bat, so maybe not

Edited December 19, 2024 by BigSlick