College Football - Week 14 (Nov. 30)

[soccer10k]

Announcers during the Georgia game kept saying that a conference title game loss won’t be held against a team. Assuming that’s correct, what happens if today, Indiana wins, Penn St loses and Oregon beats Indiana by 3 TDs. It would seem harsh on Indiana to drop them out but at the same time, they would have gotten rolled by the only two playoff caliber teams on their schedule.

[Derwood]

47 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Announcers during the Georgia game kept saying that a conference title game loss won’t be held against a team. Assuming that’s correct, what happens if today, Indiana wins, Penn St loses and Oregon beats Indiana by 3 TDs. It would seem harsh on Indiana to drop them out but at the same time, they would have gotten rolled by the only two playoff caliber teams on their schedule.

Those announcers also boldly announced that Georgia beating Ga Tech was a 100% lock for Georgia to be in the playoffs

 

Either way, PSU is farting in Maryland's faces right now so...

[Tank]

Fun snow game going on in CoMo today. Go Tigers! 

[soccer10k]

Miami has 35 points and over 500 yards of offense, including 349 passing yards with 9.7 yards per attempt. They're down 42-35 and they have 4th and goal from the 9 with 3:42 left. Critstobal decides to kick the FG which means rather than having to score a TD, Miami now still has to score a TD. Plus it cost them 16 yards of field position (assuming an incomplete pass) since on the kickoff, Syracuse fair caught it so the ball was at the 25 rather than the 9.

Auburn also had a weird decision right before the half earlier. They're down 14-3, 4th and goal from the 2. They run the offense out there to ... draw the defense offside? They ended up not snapping the ball, taking the 5 yard penalty and kicked the FG. I don't know why they didn't just send the FG unit out there and let the clock run out anyway. I wouldn't think moving forward 1 yard would convince them to then go for it. It's not like they could get a 1st down. I mean, they should have just gone for the TD in the first place but doing what they did was strange.

Edited December 1, 2024 by soccer10k

[Rex Buckingham]

Miami goes down

[Derwood]

Bama and OSU are going to host home games at this point. All these other teams going down

That said, go Aggies

[Rex Buckingham]

Notre Dame with a 99 yard pick six, followed minutes later by a 100+ yard pick six... USC was down 35-28 when they threw the first one

[CubColtPacer]

2 hours ago, bukie said:

Objectively, what does this do for Ohio State?

Well, now they can't win the B1G and get the 1 seed. How far do they fall?

Hard to put them behind Indiana.
Whoever loses Texas-Georgia will probably be behind Ohio State
Whoever loses Oregon-PSU/Indiana will probably be behind Ohio State
Whoever loses Miami-SMU will be behind Ohio State

So effectively, we're looking at:

1. B1G winner
2. SEC winner
3. ACC winner
4. Boise State (MWC winner)
5. Notre Dame (assuming a win today)
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. B1G champ loser
9. SEC champ loser
10. Indiana
11. Oh great it's going to be Alabama isn't it, maybe ACC champ loser?
12. B12 winner

I agree with this generally, but I think a few things depend on how championship games go.  For instance, I think if Oregon wins tonight and loses the Big 10 Title game, they go to 5th and ND to 6th.  I think a Texas win tonight and loss to Georgia would create a very interesting debate with Ohio State for 6th, and definitely ahead of Tennessee.

Yeah, that 11 spot is down to Alabama/South Carolina/SMU if they lose in the title game (Miami has to win the title game no matter what now).  Or Texas A&M winning the SEC title could essentially make that spot disappear.

[CubColtPacer]

Oops, I forgot Miami didn't even make the ACC title game.  That actually makes it more interesting because now we will have to see how far they fall compared to the trio of Alabama/Ole Miss/South Carolina.  It's possible the committee keeps them ahead of those three.  But we will know that this week and none of them play next week.

And Clemson can still win the ACC, which would make Boise likely the 3 seed and Clemson likely in a fight with the Big 12 winner for the 4 spot if they end up accomplishing that.

[sneakypower]

[UMFan83]

3 hours ago, bukie said:

Hard to put them behind Indiana

interesting that there’s no chance a 1 loss team can’t pass a 2 loss team from the same conference but I can’t make a good argument other than 1 is better than 2 and Ohio State has by far the worst loss between them (who by the way Indiana beat)

But yeah we’ve never seen a resume quite like Indiana’s. Michigan is the only above .500 team they’ve beaten and they’re 7-5. Every other team on their schedule is pretty bad, even if they blew them all out. 

[Rex Buckingham]

17 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

interesting that there’s no chance a 1 loss team can’t pass a 2 loss team from the same conference but I can’t make a good argument other than 1 is better than 2 and Ohio State has by far the worst loss between them (who by the way Indiana beat)

But yeah we’ve never seen a resume quite like Indiana’s. Michigan is the only above .500 team they’ve beaten and they’re 7-5. Every other team on their schedule is pretty bad, even if they blew them all out. 

it's yet another problem with these huge conferences... schedules are just all over the place

Edited December 1, 2024 by Rex Buckingham

[bukie]

49 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

interesting that there’s no chance a 1 loss team can’t pass a 2 loss team from the same conference but I can’t make a good argument other than 1 is better than 2 and Ohio State has by far the worst loss between them (who by the way Indiana beat)

But yeah we’ve never seen a resume quite like Indiana’s. Michigan is the only above .500 team they’ve beaten and they’re 7-5. Every other team on their schedule is pretty bad, even if they blew them all out. 

Plus it was literally a week ago that IU was blown out by Ohio State

[Derwood]

aTm is not putting up much of a fight here

[Andy]

5 hours ago, Derwood said:

Does OSU fall far enough to end up with a road game in the first round of the CFP?

OSU still has two top 10 wins. I think it's more likely they stay ahead of my team than fall far enough to go on the road in round 1.

[Andy]

I'm trying to imagine what September 7 Andy would've said if someone had told him that Notre Dame was going to follow up the Northern Illinois loss by dealing 10 consecutive opponents their most lopsided beatings of the season (by scoring margin anyway)

[Soul]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

it's yet another problem with these huge conferences... schedules are just all over the place

Yeah, how much of a conference is it when teams don’t regularly play each other…

[javy knows my name]

30 minutes ago, Derwood said:

aTm is not putting up much of a fight here

I was hoping for a game here but the only time aTm looks capable on D is when Texas completes passes short of the line 

[Outshined_One]

What better way to respond to tOSU's saltiness than with pepper spray?

[Old Style]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

aTm is not putting up much of a fight here

Game wasn’t as close as the score. Got completely dominated in the trenches. And our OC is a goddamn horsefeathers stupid piece of donkey horsefeathers. How he has a horsefeathers job is beyond my comprehension.  

[soccer10k]

6 minutes ago, Old Style said:

Game wasn’t as close as the score. Got completely dominated in the trenches. And our OC is a goddamn horsefeathers stupid piece of donkey horsefeathers. How he has a horsefeathers job is beyond my comprehension.  

You mean you didn't like them just barreling straight ahead on 3rd and 4th and goal from the 1 in a jumbo formation so Texas would know exactly what was coming?

[Andy]

2 hours ago, Andy said:

I'm trying to imagine what September 7 Andy would've said if someone had told him that Notre Dame was going to follow up the Northern Illinois loss by dealing 10 consecutive opponents their most lopsided beatings of the season (by scoring margin anyway)

Well this only lasted like an hour because IU beat Purdue 66-0 (ND only beat them 66-7, chumps)

[bukie]

Now that BYU won and the Big 12 mess is sorted out, here's what the CFP looks like going into Championship week:

Playoff locks that are done playing: Notre Dame, Ohio State
Playoff locks that are playing in championship games and are in win or lose: Oregon, Penn State, Texas, Georgia
Other playoff guarantees: ACC winner (SMU or Clemson), B12 winner (Iowa State or Arizona State), 5th conference champ (Boise State if they win, chaos if they don't).

That's 9 of 12 spots. For the last 3, I think Indiana is probably the likeliest, just due to having one loss and good analytics (and are already in a playoff spot and likely won't drop).

After that, it's take your pick of SEC teams (Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss), or SMU if they lose (honestly probably the best case for a remaining at-large), or BYU if you squint hard enough (they did beat SMU). And yes, I think 3 loss Georgia is still a lock, even if they end up as the 11 seed.

Here's what I'm predicting for next week:

Oregon over PSU
Georgia over Texas
SMU over Clemson
Iowa State over Arizona State
Boise State over UNLV

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Penn State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Iowa State

[Derwood]