Jim Bowden's FA Contract predictions

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

There is no reason the Cubs can’t have a higher payroll. There is also no reason they can’t trade for Cease and then do something crazy like sign him to a long term deal. They can’t be afraid to use prospects for proven talent. And I am using Cease as an example because he is on the last year of his deal, therefore the talent they lose to get him is less than getting a guy like him who also has years left on a deal and or years of control left. Someone like Logan Gilbert would be better, because he has more control. Or even Crochet. But both would cost a good deal more in prospects. Maybe someone like Mitch Keller works. While he isn’t the level of Cease, Gilbert or Crochet, he is signed through 28. So he will cost a little more because of additional years, but not as much as Crochet or Gilbert, because he isn’t as good. Maybe he settled into a solid MOR starter for the Cubs. So since you are so concerned about losing talent for a proven major leaguer, which makes more sense to you if the cost to acquire the pitcher is Alcantara and a 10-15 prospect in the system. Keller and have him thru 28, or Cease for a year and hope to sign him long term. Do you like 4 years of decent pitching or 1 year of TOR pitching with the possibility of signing him long term. Or would you rather lose a top 3 prospect in the system along with another guy at the back end of baseballs top 100 and probably another one or two decent prospects (maybe another top 100) and get Logan Gilbert. They would have him for at least 3 years. The thing is,  what are they going to do with all these guys? They need to trade some. They can’t keep them all. There isn’t a place for them. So trade a few and bring a few along through the system and to the majors. Use them now, when they are at their highest value. 

If they traded Alcantara+ for Cease and signed him to an longterm extension Cease would be 30 y/o at the start of the extension.  Why not just keep Alcantara and sign 30 y/o Burnes as FA?  Fried is only a year older too.  Possible to even sign Cease next offseason as FA.

I agree they'll likely need to trade some of their prospects.  If it were me i'd keep most or all of the very best prospects who are in the upper minors (top 5 or so) and trade guys like Triantos, Bellasteros etc.  They also need to hold on to some prospects to deal in deadline trades if needed.

Alcantara, Caissie etc are still very young.  If they stay in the minors another season its not a big deal and they may even need it.  If Soto isn't signed then Alcantara/Caissie can figure into the solution in the OF/DH in 2026 and beyond.  That's 5 players for 4 spots with PCA, Happ, and Suzuki.  Happ is gone after 2026, Seiya after 2027.  Could trade both of them not long before they hit FA and reload the farm.  Now you have some cheap pre-arb players that will free up payroll to spend on star players and extend other guys, maybe Steele or PCA.  Which is why I support signing Soto.

By the time Cam Smith might be ready Paredes will be more expensive and close to FA, so if Smith progresses well then trade Paredes a year or 2 months from FA and restock the farm.  Let Nico walk in FA for a QO or trade him at next year's deadline and have Shaw replace him.  We'd have the payroll space to acquire multiple elite players like Soto.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Alcantara, Caissie etc are still very young.  If they stay in the minors another season its not a big deal and they may even need it.

On the contrary, it is actually a very big deal if Alcantara spends another season in the minors because he needs it. He will be out of minor league option years at the start of the season, meaning his value will absolutely tank the following year.

[LBiittner]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

 We'd have the payroll space to acquire multiple elite players like Soto.

Cubs could aquire multiple elite players like soto?

I love the offseason, bless us cubfans, one and all

[Illiterate Scholar]

Mooney and Sharma mentioned in their podcast yesterday that they are less sure that Bellinger will opt out now. They said a week ago they were more confident in the opt out but something might have changed. Didn't sound super confident either way though. 

[LBiittner]

8 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

Mooney and Sharma mentioned in their podcast yesterday that they are less sure that Bellinger will opt out now. They said a week ago they were more confident in the opt out but something might have changed. Didn't sound super confident either way though. 

I'd have a difficult time walking away from 27.5mil plus a 5mil buyout after 2025 season. 

But then again, I can't hit the curveball...nor the fastball

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

Mooney and Sharma mentioned in their podcast yesterday that they are less sure that Bellinger will opt out now. They said a week ago they were more confident in the opt out but something might have changed. Didn't sound super confident either way though. 

I'll say I expect Cody to opt out, and I'd prefer he opts out, but I don't think it's *that* much of a problem if he stays.  It keeps Seiya firmly planted at DH, and provides some redundancy at CF and 1B, and gives us a left contact bat in the lineup we wouldn't otherwise have unless we made the mistake of starting Tauchman every day.  And we saw in the second half once catcher got resolved the lineup was banging, so while we should strive for upgrades keeping the gang together isn't the end of the world.

$50M to address the bench and the pitching staff is a bit tight, so I'd prefer the $80M with one extra item on the to-door list, but it's marginal.

[Donzo]

What's a good projection for Burns- 6yr $210M?!?

I'd do that.

[squally1313]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

Here are the FG predictions. Haven't dug in yet, but I'm inclined to lean on these a little heavier than any of the other ones I've seen. 

[Stratos]

On 11/1/2024 at 11:01 AM, LBiittner said:

Cubs could aquire multiple elite players like soto?

I love the offseason, bless us cubfans, one and all

Not in one offseason.

[Stratos]

On 11/3/2024 at 10:05 AM, Donzo said:

What's a good projection for Burns- 6yr $210M?!?

I'd do that.

Fangraph crowdsource predictions that was just posted thinks about 6/180.

Fried they say about 5/135

Edited November 4, 2024 by Stratos

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

Here are the FG predictions. Haven't dug in yet, but I'm inclined to lean on these a little heavier than any of the other ones I've seen. 

Holy horsefeathers Wily Adames getting 30M a year? Feeling not bad about Dansby right now. Flaherty for 4/88 sounds pretty good. Robertson at 1/10 is a damn steal. IF Santander is getting 5/100 and Alonso is getting 5/125 I think that's an incredibly simple decision even if I'm one of the lowest people on Alonso.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Holy horsefeathers Wily Adames getting 30M a year? Feeling not bad about Dansby right now. Flaherty for 4/88 sounds pretty good. Robertson at 1/10 is a damn steal. IF Santander is getting 5/100 and Alonso is getting 5/125 I think that's an incredibly simple decision even if I'm one of the lowest people on Alonso.

That Adames projection projection is higher than the crowdsourced one but still should make people feel better about the Swanson contract. 

Burnes at $30m a year but not some monstrous length where you're paying him into his 40s is a pretty acceptable use of money for me if you can't think of anything else more creative to do. Ditto for Fried, let the real analytic nerds figure out which one is better (or, given last offseason, maybe it's just whoever is around the longest).

Think I'm out on the Teoscar/Santander/Alonso group. They aren't good enough hitters to anchor an offense around, and Suzuki's presence, both as a superior hitter and a should-be DH level of defense, means you're giving back some of the offense right away.

Does Carlos Santana and his 161 wRC against lefties do anything for us at 1/$9m?

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

That Adames projection projection is higher than the crowdsourced one but still should make people feel better about the Swanson contract. 

Burnes at $30m a year but not some monstrous length where you're paying him into his 40s is a pretty acceptable use of money for me if you can't think of anything else more creative to do. Ditto for Fried, let the real analytic nerds figure out which one is better (or, given last offseason, maybe it's just whoever is around the longest).

Think I'm out on the Teoscar/Santander/Alonso group. They aren't good enough hitters to anchor an offense around, and Suzuki's presence, both as a superior hitter and a should-be DH level of defense, means you're giving back some of the offense right away.

Does Carlos Santana and his 161 wRC against lefties do anything for us at 1/$9m?

Certainly out on Teoscar, probably out on Santander. The reason Alonso has some appeal to me is he has that kind of pop where even if Wrigley was super pitcher friendly again, it wouldn't matter for Alonso. The only megabat out there is Soto and I think we all know it's not going to happen, but Alonso as a DH who can fill in at 1B if  Busch struggles or needs a break. If they start going 6 or 7 years at 25 a year, I'm hard out. Even 5/150 makes me pause because I think he's going to age like Adam Dunn, but he's the best of the possible bat for the Cub needs.

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Does Carlos Santana and his 161 wRC against lefties do anything for us at 1/$9m?

His age scares me to the point I'd lean no, but I'd consider it.  Belli being back means our righty bat doesn't need to provide OF coverage.

He's pretty low ceiling so I'd want him to be paired with something a little more exciting at catcher or for the reserve infielder we need. 

Like I'm very much of the mind we poor more resources into pitching than hitting but if our offseason hitting additions are like Santana, Cavan Biggio. and Carson Kelly, that's over correcting IMO.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Santana works best with a bench IF like Brandon Lowe that could also play some OF in a pinch, but he's not a bad lefty bopper option.  Guessing he's probably gonna find a non-competitor to give him every day at bats, and given he's basically collected every Bally-impacted franchise, I suspect the same thing will happen for 2025.

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Certainly out on Teoscar, probably out on Santander. The reason Alonso has some appeal to me is he has that kind of pop where even if Wrigley was super pitcher friendly again, it wouldn't matter for Alonso. The only megabat out there is Soto and I think we all know it's not going to happen, but Alonso as a DH who can fill in at 1B if  Busch struggles or needs a break. If they start going 6 or 7 years at 25 a year, I'm hard out. Even 5/150 makes me pause because I think he's going to age like Adam Dunn, but he's the best of the possible bat for the Cub needs.

I just don't think Alonso is good enough to pay that kind of money to fit into what we have going on. The best hitter on our roster is Suzuki. Alonso pushes him to right field and makes Bellinger the de facto first back up. There's value in the redundancy, but do we want to pay $25m a year to upgrade from Bellinger's bat to Alonso's bat while downgrading from Bellinger's glove to Suzuki's glove?

I think if you're going to spend significant resources on a bat, it needs to be a catcher, paired with another move, or someone a step above the legion of 115-125 wRC/2.5-3.5 fWAR guys we already have. Like, if you're going to sign an Alonso or Santander and make it that much harder for the AAA guys to come up, why not just skip the Alonso/Santander signing and trade whatever of the AAA guys you need to get Vlad or Tucker? 

[Donzo]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Fangraph crowdsource predictions that was just posted thinks about 6/180.

Fried they say about 5/135

TY!

Even better than I thought. The Cubs really need to sign one of them.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Donzo said:

TY!

Even better than I thought. The Cubs really need to sign one of them.

I think a bunch of those predictions you could easily see them getting another year tacked on though.

[Bertz]

Jon is not connected *at all* but he manages the payroll pages at FG and he's way too online so he logics his way into these predictions and updates them frequently throughout the winter.  "This is what makes sense" is a nice complement to "this is what I'm hearing."

 

[Post Count Padder]

FWIW MLB Trade Rumors did their predictions and consensus is we get Fried and Danny Jansen. I wouldn't be displeased with that but I think a good reliever is a must as well. 

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

Jon is not connected *at all* but he manages the payroll pages at FG and he's way too online so he logics his way into these predictions and updates them frequently throughout the winter.  "This is what makes sense" is a nice complement to "this is what I'm hearing."

 

Snell is a good pitcher. He's a weird pitcher in many ways, but he's really good. I'd be alright with that. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

Jon is not connected *at all* but he manages the payroll pages at FG and he's way too online so he logics his way into these predictions and updates them frequently throughout the winter.  "This is what makes sense" is a nice complement to "this is what I'm hearing."

 

Nobody can predict the future but these guesses are pretty reasonable.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

FWIW MLB Trade Rumors did their predictions and consensus is we get Fried and Danny Jansen. I wouldn't be displeased with that but I think a good reliever is a must as well. 

Fried would about 28 AAV, a top reliever around 13m, Jansen about 8m.  That's 49m total.  We may need some other pen arms, a bench guy or 2.  I guess that may be do-able under the tax but it gets tight.

Jed seems to work in FA by highlighting all the players they'd be interested in at each position of need, decide what their market value is, and then sign the player whose contract demand is the best bang for the buck.  Exception is players where there's only 1 good or obvious option at that position and they seem to go aggressive for them, like Bellinger the last 2 offseasons.

[Stratos]

39 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Snell is a good pitcher. He's a weird pitcher in many ways, but he's really good. I'd be alright with that. 

Very good pitcher.  Wish he was more durable, but that will probably be reflected in his contract.  Hasn't been the arm in recent years so that's a plus.  It's an injury that keeps bothering him though.

[Tryptamine]

13 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

FWIW MLB Trade Rumors did their predictions and consensus is we get Fried and Danny Jansen. I wouldn't be displeased with that but I think a good reliever is a must as well. 

If I were to guess, not based on my preferences, but Jed's, I think this is the most likely scenario.