Non-Soto FA thread

[thawv]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

For market value? Fangraphs market predictions are usually pretty solid when they post those.

For contracts that have been signed? Use Cot's.

Spotrac is really low on most guys, IMO. They have Santander at signing below $90m. I think he'll hit north of $100m, for example, Max Fried they have at $136m. 

All I use is Cot's for current contracts.

As far as Spotrac goes, they are not predicting the contracts.  It's their market value base on similar comps over the last 2 years.  I've been using Spotrac, and the stars usually get 20-25% over their established market value.  Based on that, I think Santander will be in the 105 million range. 

I'll have to try to navigate FG to find their market value.  

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

All I use is Cot's for current contracts.

As far as Spotrac goes, they are not predicting the contracts.  It's their market value base on similar comps over the last 2 years.  I've been using Spotrac, and the stars usually get 20-25% over their established market value.  Based on that, I think Santander will be in the 105 million range. 

I'll have to try to navigate FG to find their market value.  

You do you. But if their market value isn't within 25% of what guys are getting paid, that doesn't sound like it's a good market value to be using, to me, considering their real market value is what a team pays them., Buehler ain't going to sign a 1`/$4m deal, just like Fried ain't signing for $136m. 

[thawv]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You do you. But if their market value isn't within 25% of what guys are getting paid, that doesn't sound like it's a good market value to be using, to me, considering their real market value is what a team pays them., Buehler ain't going to sign a 1`/$4m deal, just like Fried ain't signing for $136m. 

It's a starting point for me.  Of course if they are a good FA, they will get more than that.  I'd say that Walker won't get over 6 million for one year.  If I have to make a prediction, I'd say Fried get in the 170 range. 

[CubinNY]

When will we get the Bellinger decision? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

When will we get the Bellinger decision? 

They are due Monday I believe.

[LBiittner]

10 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

They are due Monday I believe.

I understand they get 5 days after WS. But why do some stretch it out til the last moment? I mean, c'mon they really can't negotiate with other teams during those 5 days, can they? 

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I understand they get 5 days after WS. But why do some stretch it out til the last moment? I mean, c'mon they really can't negotiate with other teams during those 5 days, can they? 

Flip it around, if you're making a decision that could impact you to the tune of 10's of millions of dollars, why would you rush it?

[Cuzi]

48 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I understand they get 5 days after WS. But why do some stretch it out til the last moment? I mean, c'mon they really can't negotiate with other teams during those 5 days, can they? 

No they cant, but lets not act like Boras isn't out there getting feelers for the market right now.

[LBiittner]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Questions: why do you care about waiting 5 days? There are no games until March next year so how is this, in any way let alone negatively, impacting your (edit: or anyone’s) life?

Simple question on my part. My sports news feed has been playing the belli-button in or out speculation from every erzats sports writer wanna-be for like 2 solid weeks. I'm just curious on my own part why the agent usually plays it out til the final moments like it's a super duper Howey Mandel "deal or no deal" final season episode. Im Just like you though, I eat cubs for breakfast lol

[LBiittner]

14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

No they cant, but lets not act like Boras isn't out there getting feelers for the market right now.

I'm sure he has to show up better this time as compared to last years boner. 

[Derwood]

5 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm sure he has to show up better this time as compared to last years boner. 

This is kidn of the buried headline of the off season: Did Boras learn his lesson or is he going to double down?

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

This is kidn of the buried headline of the off season: Did Boras learn his lesson or is he going to double down?

His tactics usually work to get his guys the best contract. They didn't last year. At the end of the day, it's still up to the player. They choose Boras for a reason. 

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Simple question on my part. My sports news feed has been playing the belli-button in or out speculation from every erzats sports writer wanna-be for like 2 solid weeks. I'm just curious on my own part why the agent usually plays it out til the final moments like it's a super duper Howey Mandel "deal or no deal" final season episode. Im Just like you though, I eat cubs for breakfast lol

For Bellinger specifically there's probably not much that can happen in the next three days to influence his decision.  Harrison Bader is likely the only CF competition on the market, and the Cubs don't have any other interesting option QO decisions to make.

However, there's no cost to waiting.  So whether it be something silly like be Scott Boras viewing waiting as a power move, or wanting to just insulate yourself from something surprising (White Sox making Luis Robert a free agent?) or something we can't see (Yankees or Phillies expressing interest) there's a good chance he wants until closer to the deadline.

[thawv]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

I understand they get 5 days after WS. But why do some stretch it out til the last moment? I mean, c'mon they really can't negotiate with other teams during those 5 days, can they? 

MAYBE a last minute effort to sign with their current team?  I'm not sure what the delay otherwise could be. 

[JBears79]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

They would never give him a QO.  He would take it and they would be stuck paying him 21 million.  His market value is closer to 3 million. 

I'm not worried about it and I dont think he does but the Dodgers got money to do weird things. Ive been guessing hes gets like a 1+1 deal with an option for like 26 mil total. 

[LBiittner]

41 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m going to sound a little preachy but with <3, not actually looking to attack you or anything so much as I get hot abt the everyday rhetoric: Whatever labor rights are left were earned with blood. People have, you know, the right to utilize their extremely hard earned, quickly disappearing, and always under attack rights. You neither gain nor lose, hell if anything indirectly gain even a smidge from their right to these 5 days. Idk where you’re at in your work life but for anyone under like 70 who wasn’t born into a family with some money this place blows to work in and is getting worse in part because anti-labor thought and rhetoric is the baseline from top to bottom

Your thoughts are failing in my mind. The "laws" negotiated between labor and owner specifications were no negotiations between other teams and client until after 5 days post WS. And if you were to think Jed would be happy to negotiate more $ in belli's account, I'd be thinking you be wrong. At the end of season presser it sounded like jeds anticipating (and probably hoping) for the opt out scenario.

Cuzi made an accurate summation when he pointed out boras probably has feelers to other potentially interested teams. Is this labor ethical? Dunno? 

8 years retired, business owner for almost 26 years. So you can probably guess where I pledge allegiance 

[LBiittner]

54 minutes ago, thawv said:

MAYBE a last minute effort to sign with their current team?  I'm not sure what the delay otherwise could be. 

I think jeds wants the opt out to happen

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

This is kidn of the buried headline of the off season: Did Boras learn his lesson or is he going to double down?

Interesting thoughts. 

Boras has Sosa as a client. I'm of a mind that he's going to devote most of his energies Sosa direction. His other free agent clients might get the lesser amount of negotiating priorities? I'm not sure if boras hands off client's to other members of his work staff to do the numbers?

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Interesting thoughts. 

Boras has Sosa as a client. I'm of a mind that he's going to devote most of his energies Sosa direction. His other free agent clients might get the lesser amount of negotiating priorities? I'm not sure if boras hands off client's to other members of his work staff to do the numbers?

I assume you mean Soto?

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I assume you mean Soto?

 YES. Thanks, Freudian slip haha

[Bertz]

They are not showing up on individual player pages but Steamer projections look like they're live on Fangraphs

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

It loos like all of the pending FAs have been cleared out (including Bellinger) and the Cubs are the #17 team in WAR as currently constituted.  That is #1 in the division, though the Cardinals are right behind them by a fraction of a WAR.  They rank 12th on the position player side, 22nd on the pitching front 

If you go player by player not a ton of surprises, and few things that kind of stand out though

- Steamer has generally been pretty down on Dansby Swanson (while ZiPS has loved him), but 3.4 WAR feels pretty fair

- Busch gets a fairly soft projection (1.9 WAR) as does Taillon (1.3)

- Shaw gets a strong projection, the other prospects not so much.  Generally these systems do not love rookies, so I think the Shaw piece is more of a surprise than the latter

- Steamer likes several members of the bullpen, it does not love any of them (even Hodge).  And generally reliever WAR tends to rack up exponentially as production improves

All in all I don't think anything here is too far away from expectations.  It paints the picture of a team that is a smidge north of .500 heading into a winter where they presumably have a lot of resources to throw around.

[Bertz]

I don't know if they'd come somewhere with such a murky path to 2B playing time but Polanco or Moncada would be good buy low options to get that LHH infielder I've been pining for.

 

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't know if they'd come somewhere with such a murky path to 2B playing time but Polanco or Moncada would be good buy low options to get that LHH infielder I've been pining for.

 

With both being switch hitters and each being able to play multiple positions, maybe the Cubs could convince one of them they would get a decent amount of AB. I think the bigger issue is do the Cubs really want one of these guys and how little could they get them for? I think if the money gets into a 2 or 3 year deal over $10M a year, the Cubs shouldn’t consider either. And I think some team will give that much for either of them. If we are talking 2/$13M or even 1/8M maybe that can work. And it goes without saying this can’t be the Cubs big addition to the offense. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

33 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't know if they'd come somewhere with such a murky path to 2B playing time but Polanco or Moncada would be good buy low options to get that LHH infielder I've been pining for.

 

I will go a step further in that if you have a reasonable amount of confidence that Polanco will be healthy(he had surgery but he had knee issues with the Twins too) and that the injury + Safeco are the big drivers in his 2024 performance, that there's not much daylight between him and Santander.

 

 

But I also agree that getting Polanco in the door could be a challenge given the settled infield and him likely looking to take a 1 year deal with aspirations of proving 2024 was the fluke.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I will go a step further in that if you have a reasonable amount of confidence that Polanco will be healthy(he had surgery but he had knee issues with the Twins too) and that the injury + Safeco are the big drivers in his 2024 performance, that there's not much daylight between him and Santander.

 

 

But I also agree that getting Polanco in the door could be a challenge given the settled infield and him likely looking to take a 1 year deal with aspirations of proving 2024 was the fluke.

So if the Cubs lose Bellinger you would be fine with him being the big addition to the line up? If he was the big addition he might not get 100+ games at any one position, but he would be in the line up most days. 3rd for some games, maybe 2nd when giving Nico a day or even when moving Nico to SS. The rest of the time he could he the DH. He could get 500AB easily, if he deserved them and he was the Cubs big addition. I am just not sure I like him as the big move.