Non-Soto FA thread

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

I won't pretend like it's the most efficient use of resources, but in terms of LT concern for 2026 and (less so) going forward, I could us being in a position similar to where the Astros find themselves with Tucker or Jays find themselves with Vlad. Guys like Happ, Suzuki, Hoerner aren't at that caliber, but I think would still be moderately attractive as trade targets on a one year deal and we would be in a spot where we'd have ready to go replacements in AAA for league minimum. I'm not really advocating for that kind of move before next offseason, but if we make some big splashes this year it's a path to explore. 

I agree.  I have, as recently as yesterday, poopooed sell trades for any of those guys (plus Taillon).  But I do wonder if having $70M and 13.5 WAR (in 2024 production) slated to walk out the door all at the same time is something Jed wants to get ahead of? 

And even if he doesn't do anything about any of those guys, does having them all on hand make additional two year deals problematic?  Like I've been stumping for Nate Eovaldi and Tyler O'neill.  But is the prospect of having to replace Eovaldi and Taillon at the same time or O'neill, Happ, AND Suzuki at the same time make either of those a non-starter?

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I agree.  I have, as recently as yesterday, poopooed sell trades for any of those guys (plus Taillon).  But I do wonder if having $70M and 13.5 WAR (in 2024 production) slated to walk out the door all at the same time is something Jed wants to get ahead of? 

And even if he doesn't do anything about any of those guys, does having them all on hand make additional two year deals problematic?  Like I've been stumping for Nate Eovaldi and Tyler O'neill.  But is the prospect of having to replace Eovaldi and Taillon at the same time or O'neill, Happ, AND Suzuki at the same time make either of those a non-starter?

Yeah I've yet to see a compelling argument for taking pieces of that group (Happ, Seiya, Hoerner, Taillon) and moving them off the roster in a way that improves the 2025 team. They all performed, we have plenty of money, and there's no sure thing in Iowa forcing them out. But I think if things go south in 2025 or kinda regardless next offseason, you have to start thinking about breaking that group up into smaller chunks one way or another. Hopefully that's forced by us bringing in a couple big name guys this offseason. But it's too much turnover at once and it comes about a year (maybe a year and a half) too late to align with the internal replacements. 

[Jason Ross]

My offseason expectations/predictions (whatever you want to call 'em) are something like this:

1. Cubs will acquire one starting level hitter to replace Bellinger. It won't necessarily be an OF'er, but it will be some sort of starting level guy. 

2. The Cubs will acquire one SP who can comfortably slot into the top-3 with Steele and Imanaga. Or...at least they will believe that pitcher will do that (I can see them thinking a healthy Buehler or Bieber would do just this). 

One of these first two will be via a trade. I hesitate to guess which it will be. But it'll probably be like a Parades type where they're controlled. 

3. The Cubs will acquire a catcher capable of playing 60-100 games if the hitter they acquire isn't like, Logan O'Hoppe. 

4. Some sort of bench bat who hits LHP. A WIsdom-type replacement

5. One back end RP. 

6. 1-3 other relievers who could break camp with the team if things go well, but could also provide Iowa depth.

I think your wild cards are if the Cubs feel like they can do a Vlad or a Tucker type trade as their version of Mookie Betts/Francisco Lindor where they expect to extend them at some point. I think this will also depend a bit on Jed Hoyer. Is Hoyer ready to be a bit more aggressive? 

Agree with the idea that someone like Morsi (it'll probably be Morosi or Levine) will throw the Cubs in as a hot name for Soto or Burnes. But it'll quickly fizzle. Probably come in $5-$8m under the LT. Though there was some thought that the Cubs might still make the LT line if Bellinger opts out. If that's the case, it might open up another small amount of spending.

I have a feeling the FA pick up will come before the trade. So, like, if the Cubs sign Santander or Teoscar Hernandez or something (consider these names placeholders and not predictions) they'd trade for a SP come...mid-Jan or something. But I'm expecting the Cubs to probably do both post-WM's. But maybe they do an Eovaldi at the WM's or a quick jump on Buehler in late Nov on a 1+1 year thing.

[Cuzi]

My offseason expectations are simply to be left wanting more from the 4th largest market in baseball.

[JBears79]

What kind of deal does Walker Buehler get this offseason? I was interested in him before the playoffs but his performance there probably bumped up his price a bit. He's gonna be an interesting guy to follow this year.

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

What kind of deal does Walker Buehler get this offseason? I was interested in him before the playoffs but his performance there probably bumped up his price a bit. He's gonna be an interesting guy to follow this year.

He's pitched 140 innings in the last 3 years and was bottom 20th percentile in pretty much everything coming off his 2nd TJS. He's not getting more than 1 guaranteed year from a team like the Pirates. The Cubs need to be past the point of rebuilding flip candidates.

Edited October 31, 2024 by Cuzi

[Illiterate Scholar]

I expect that this offseason I'll like each move individually but will end up feeling a bit underwhelmed when it's over. That's the Jed experience. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

What kind of deal does Walker Buehler get this offseason? I was interested in him before the playoffs but his performance there probably bumped up his price a bit. He's gonna be an interesting guy to follow this year.

I'm assuming something along the lines of a 1+1 deal where that "+1" is mostly just a formality and would be a true one year deal. He's not super young, but also on the right side of 30 (for a short time). The velo came back, he's over 95mph. 

So I think some team is going to say "Hey, if I can get a healthy Buehler, he can be that guy we just saw in the World Series. There's a lot there". I don't think it'll be a top-top team who brings him in, but I think he'll be above the Oakland/Chicago Southside level, as well. 

I think the Cubs should aim higher. But I can also see the Cubs being the exact team I just spoke about. 

[JBears79]

36 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

He's pitched 140 innings in the last 3 years and was bottom 20th percentile in pretty much everything coming off his 2nd TJS. He's not getting more than 1 guaranteed year from a team like the Pirates. The Cubs need to be past the point of rebuilding flip candidates.

I agree we should be past it but I'm expecting one FA pitcher in the Burnes tier and at the time a reclamation guy like Buehler or Bieber. The equation changed a bit imo with how well he pitched in the postseason. If he gets a QO from the Dodgers, I'm not interested. 

 

Its a move that just screams Jed to me.

 

Edited October 31, 2024 by JBears79

[Cuzi]

You don't have to worry about him getting a QO. The Dodgers were questioning whether or not to put him on the playoff roster. 15 innings isn't going to change how they feel. It's going to be a thank you and have a good day.

[NorthsideAvenger]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

 

- The Cubs acquire someone who is unambiguously the closer.  Jed spends an uncharacteristic (for him) amount on the guy.  Not an insane package for e.g. Mason Miller, but something in line with the Brandon Morrow or Wade Davis acquisitions

 

I could see the Cubs trading for Josh Hader.

[NorthsideAvenger]

DP. 

Edited October 31, 2024 by NorthsideAvenger

[Layoutman]

On 10/23/2024 at 10:14 AM, Cuzi said:

Funny how instant the "absolutely not" come out for an accusation which later turned into fraud and extortion indictments against the accuser.

Some day someone will take a stand.

If this was the NFL - Bauer would already be playing for the Cleveland Browns.

[Cuzi]

34 minutes ago, Layoutman said:

If this was the NFL - Bauer would already be playing for the Cleveland Browns.

You can probably go down every NFL teams history and find someone accused of something pretty heinous and still giving out second chances, key word being accused.

I've been a Chiefs fan since about '96-97 and you dont have to go back too far in their history to find someone. They drafted Tyreek Hill and not many people were thinking he would be drafted with the off field baggage he was bringing.

Edited November 1, 2024 by Cuzi

[Layoutman]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You can probably go down every NFL teams history and find someone accused of something pretty heinous and still giving out second chances, key word being accused.

I've been a Chiefs fan since about '96-97 and you dont have to go back too far in their history to find someone. They drafted Tyreek Hill and not many people were thinking he would be drafted with the off field baggage he was bringing.

Been a Chiefs fan since 1979 when Bill Kenney was the QB. Suffered through some really bad years...The missed field goal in 96 vs the colts hurt. Fast forward to the Mahomes era and everyone is a Chiefs fan or a hater.

Bauer may go the way of Ray Rice and never get another chance. 

[CubinNY]

Bauer was an horsefeathers before the allegations came out.

[17 Seconds]

7 hours ago, Cuzi said:

You can probably go down every NFL teams history and find someone accused of something pretty heinous and still giving out second chances, key word being accused.

I've been a Chiefs fan since about '96-97 and you dont have to go back too far in their history to find someone. They drafted Tyreek Hill and not many people were thinking he would be drafted with the off field baggage he was bringing.

accepting that there are awful people on all teams doesn't mean you have to actively pine for a rapist to come here

[thawv]

20 hours ago, Cuzi said:

My offseason expectations are simply to be left wanting more from the 4th largest market in baseball.

When winning isn't prioritized, this is what we get.  

[thawv]

20 hours ago, JBears79 said:

What kind of deal does Walker Buehler get this offseason? I was interested in him before the playoffs but his performance there probably bumped up his price a bit. He's gonna be an interesting guy to follow this year.

Maybe 1/4, or 2/7?  

[thawv]

19 hours ago, JBears79 said:

I agree we should be past it but I'm expecting one FA pitcher in the Burnes tier and at the time a reclamation guy like Buehler or Bieber. The equation changed a bit imo with how well he pitched in the postseason. If he gets a QO from the Dodgers, I'm not interested. 

 

Its a move that just screams Jed to me.

 

They would never give him a QO.  He would take it and they would be stuck paying him 21 million.  His market value is closer to 3 million. 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, thawv said:

Maybe 1/4, or 2/7?  

He will get far more than $4m. He's probably looking at something closer to Luis Severino, who made $13m on a one year deal. Expect Buehler to get something along that line. 

You might give him $4m. But someone will go well above that. His market value is not "closer to $3m". You're being pretty silly there.

[thawv]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He will get far more than $4m. He's probably looking at something closer to Luis Severino, who made $13m on a one year deal. Expect Buehler to get something along that line. 

You might give him $4m. But someone will go well above that. His market value is not "closer to $3m". You're being pretty silly there.

I'm basing my number on what Spotrac has his market value at, based on the 4 comps they used.  I meant to say 4 million also.  Sorry.  I would personally be shocked if he got anywhere near 13 million. 

As you know, in the FA market, player get over their market value simply because of a bidding war.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/17639/walker-buehler

Edited November 1, 2024 by thawv

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'm basing my number on what Spotrac has his market value at, based on the 4 comps they used.  I meant to say 4 million also.  Sorry.  I would personally be shocked if he got anywhere near 13 million. 

As you know, in the FA market, player get over their market value simply because of a bidding war.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/17639/walker-buehler

Spotrac is not what I'd use for MLB contracts. It's pretty poor and commonly wrong. I suspect his market will be far closer to Severino based on age and track record. 

[thawv]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Spotrac is not what I'd use for MLB contracts. It's pretty poor and commonly wrong. 

I'd love to know what site you use!  Thanks.  I'm always looking for new sites. 

 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'd love to know what site you use!  Thanks.  I'm always looking for new sites. 

 

For market value? Fangraphs market predictions are usually pretty solid when they post those.

For contracts that have been signed? Use Cot's.

Spotrac is really low on most guys, IMO. They have Santander at signing below $90m. I think he'll hit north of $100m, for example, Max Fried they have at $136m.