Non-Soto FA thread

[Outshined_One]

I'm wondering if Jed would go hard after Sugano as an SP option, given there would be no issues with the QO and his age might depress his price tag enough to make him a bargain.

[Bertz]

God help me I'm on the same side of an issue as Cuzi but yeah to whatever extent older pitchers are riskier I think it's more than made up for by the way the market has recoiled in fear at them.  I'd MUCH rather sign a 34 year old to a 3 year deal than sign a 24 year old with identical stats and repertoire to a 5 or 6 year deal.  It's not even close in my mind.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

I have them tendering 4 guys in arbitration.  My numbers show that if Belli opts out, it's going to be over 90 million to spend.  It's mid 60's if he doesn't opt out.  I'm using Cot's arb numbers and only bringing back 4 guys in arb. 

Ah ok, I just used a very rough estimate with about 10-15m for arb and other raises and typical bench/pen small contracts.  

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

You just got done using Marcus Stroman to justify your point in multiple posts.

I'm going to agree that older pitchers are more likely to regress in the aggregate, but that's also not a unique viewpoint. It's shared across baseball and baked into the contracts that are handed out for pitchers of that ilk. Jack Flaherty is going to get more money and more years than Kikuchi and Eovaldi even though they've put up similar production over the last two years. If you choose to play in these waters (with the upside being immediate production at cheaper rates than what a 29 year old would cost you), the onus is on the front office to do whatever they can to identify the skill sets/health profiles that are likely to stay steady for a couple more years. 

Older guys seem to get less years but the AAV isn't much or at all affected.  Sonny Gray got 3 years at 25m AAV last year.   Before that Verlander and Scherzer got 3 yrs and 43m AAV, which at the time I said were dumb high risk contracts.

Flaherty seems quality but only has 1 season of recent success so there's some risk there, and Fried will probably get at least 5 years which means he'll be at least 35 when the contract ends so risk there as well.   Burnes has had some K/9 reductions and velo drops in recent seasons (though velo ex back up last season but Ks still dropped for some reason) so also some red flags.  Will be interesting to see how the Cubs go with SP.

[Cuzi]

Want a really good pitcher on a short term cheap AAV deal? He's in Mexico right now.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm wondering if Jed would go hard after Sugano as an SP option, given there would be no issues with the QO and his age might depress his price tag enough to make him a bargain.

I think there's a chance you can get a guy out of him, but I also hope the Cubs veer away. He's right handed, which is something the Cubs could probably use, but the concerns about how the velocity will play at the MLB level, and how the Cubs rotation is already pretty reliant on a lack of overall stuff has me fairly uninterested in his larger fit into the puzzle. I'd hope the Cubs would be shooting for "definitely better than Taillon" and while Sugano might be marginally better than Taillon there's enough question there that I'd be fairly disappointed if that was the route the Cubs went with.

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Want a really good pitcher on a short term cheap AAV deal? He's in Mexico right now.

NO

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Want a really good pitcher on a short term cheap AAV deal? He's in Mexico right now.

Absolutely not

[Ding Dong Johnson]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Want a really good pitcher on a short term cheap AAV deal? He's in Mexico right now.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

God help me I'm on the same side of an issue as Cuzi

This didn't last long

[Cuzi]

Funny how instant the "absolutely not" come out for an accusation which later turned into fraud and extortion indictments against the accuser.

Some day someone will take a stand.

[NorthsideAvenger]

16 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Want a really good pitcher on a short term cheap AAV deal? He's in Mexico right now.

I thought you said good pitcher. All I see is a guy whose name rhymes with Never Shower.

That is going to be a no for me, too.

[squally1313]

[Cuzi]

At the same time, the majority of baseball is crying that Pete Rose isn't in the HoF after he admitted to statutory rape. Double standards.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Funny how instant the "absolutely not" come out for an accusation which later turned into fraud and extortion indictments against the accuser.

Some day someone will take a stand.

Terribly unlucky that he managed to find 4 different fraudsters to accuse him of sexual assault.

Also he's 34 and was wedged between Zac Grotz and David Reyes in Mexican League performance.  It's over.

[squally1313]

Just now, Cuzi said:

At the same time, the majority of baseball is crying that Pete Rose isn't in the HoF after he admitted to statutory rape. Double standards.

lol yes, nailed it, good work

[Bertz]

 

[Outshined_One]

26 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think there's a chance you can get a guy out of him, but I also hope the Cubs veer away. He's right handed, which is something the Cubs could probably use, but the concerns about how the velocity will play at the MLB level, and how the Cubs rotation is already pretty reliant on a lack of overall stuff has me fairly uninterested in his larger fit into the puzzle. I'd hope the Cubs would be shooting for "definitely better than Taillon" and while Sugano might be marginally better than Taillon there's enough question there that I'd be fairly disappointed if that was the route the Cubs went with.

One thing that I've been meaning to do some deeper digging on is the short term success rate of Japanese pitchers who get posted to MLB. There seems to be a scouting imbalance with those guys, since almost every hitter will have never seen them before and certain teams don't seem to bother scouting Japan at all. My (admittedly anecdotal) memory is that most Japanese pitchers tend to do fairly well in their first 1-2 seasons in MLB before teams are able to adjust.

I agree that velocity is a problem for this team, but if there's a competitive advantage in getting Sugano during that window and he's willing to take a 2-3 year deal, it might be worthwhile.

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

I generally wouldn't sign a 34-35 y/o pitcher to a FA market value deal if there were similar options for guys several years younger.  The odds they will suddenly regress is higher so I don't see the benefit of playing Russian roulette. 

 

But the problem is younger guys similar to an older guy in results would want a longer contract that would take them through his older years.  Using Eovaldi and Fried in this example, my guess is Fried gets a 6 year deal. So you have him 34-37 years old anyway. Just not next year. Eovaldi would probably get a 2-3 year deal. Sure he may drop off. But Fried could also drop off towards the end of his contract. But along with the risk of Fried falling off older, he is also a risk to get hurt even before he gets older. Sure, if the discussion is Eovaldi on a 2 or 3 year deal or Fried on a 2 or 3 year deal, give me the younger guy every time. But that isn’t the choice. The younger guy will want to be paid until 35-36. So taking the younger guy on a longer contract is just kicking the can down the road on the risk if having an older pitcher who breaks down. Between Eovaldi and Fried, IMO Eovaldi is way more likely the guy who the Cubs sign. 

[Tryptamine]

38 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Funny how instant the "absolutely not" come out for an accusation which later turned into fraud and extortion indictments against the accuser.

Some day someone will take a stand.

At the very least, you have a man who has basically been hated by all of his former teammates who, even if she was ok with it, choked a women into unconsciousness and had sex with her. Hard no thanks.

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

One thing that I've been meaning to do some deeper digging on is the short term success rate of Japanese pitchers who get posted to MLB. There seems to be a scouting imbalance with those guys, since almost every hitter will have never seen them before and certain teams don't seem to bother scouting Japan at all. My (admittedly anecdotal) memory is that most Japanese pitchers tend to do fairly well in their first 1-2 seasons in MLB before teams are able to adjust.

I agree that velocity is a problem for this team, but if there's a competitive advantage in getting Sugano during that window and he's willing to take a 2-3 year deal, it might be worthwhile.

I think there's a point in the offseason where Sugano could help. But I don't think the Cubs should have to reach that point, if that makes sense? This isn't really a "horsefeathers on Sugano" situation but "he feels like too much of a square peg for a round hole". The Cubs, whether or not Bellinger opts in, should have plenty of money and prospects to either sign someone who fits better (velocity and a more known quantity) before they get to a point where they should really be at Sugano on the checklist. There comes a point where you can sacrifice a bit of surplus value for getting "the" guy. 

Some Japanese pitchers do succeed initially - Senga and Imanaga are two recent examples. Kikuchi, on the other hand, was not particularly good right away, Fujinami is an example of a recent failure. Yamamoto should be fine long term, but he struggled initially in his first few starts. I think the top end ones are generally going to be good, I just don't think Sugano is necessarily a top-end guy with his build, putting him more in the mid-field. His Japanese success is undeniable, but we also know that the Japanese game does run a bit different in what works and what doesn't. 

Long winded answer (sorry, it's my nature), I just don't think Sugano would be my top-5 guys I'd be looking for. If it's mid-January, the Cubs have struck out across the board (through real efforts) and we are still looking for the rotational piece? I'd cycle back to Sugano as I don't think he's a turd. I just don't think he's anything atop my wish list and the Cubs should be at a point where being picky early and getting the best guy should be their priority.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

At the very least, you have a man who has basically been hated by all of his former teammates who, even if she was ok with it, choked a women into unconsciousness and had sex with her. Hard no thanks.

Not denying he was/is a douche but guys like Mookie Betts have gone on record to say they love him and hope he gets another chance. And the whole unconscious story was provided by someone who lied, so...

I didn't expect anyone to like the idea, because media drives narrative and the media hates him so therefore the majority of people will hate him and he becomes a poison pill. It's just funny to me how accusations, none of which were founded, turns a Cy Young pitcher into someone no one wants to touch.

[LBiittner]

For all of us contemplating the Cubs having somewhere between $50-70million depending on belli, the Mets currently have roughly $195million coming off the books post W.S. After tasting the playoffs, they will be the other team not named the Yankees or dodgers to compete against for virtually every quality free agent jed may look into.

This is a sobering thought.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think there's a point in the offseason where Sugano could help. But I don't think the Cubs should have to reach that point, if that makes sense? This isn't really a "horsefeathers on Sugano" situation but "he feels like too much of a square peg for a round hole". The Cubs, whether or not Bellinger opts in, should have plenty of money and prospects to either sign someone who fits better (velocity and a more known quantity) before they get to a point where they should really be at Sugano on the checklist. There comes a point where you can sacrifice a bit of surplus value for getting "the" guy. 

Some Japanese pitchers do succeed initially - Senga and Imanaga are two recent examples. Kikuchi, on the other hand, was not particularly good right away, Fujinami is an example of a recent failure. Yamamoto should be fine long term, but he struggled initially in his first few starts. I think the top end ones are generally going to be good, I just don't think Sugano is necessarily a top-end guy with his build, putting him more in the mid-field. His Japanese success is undeniable, but we also know that the Japanese game does run a bit different in what works and what doesn't. 

Long winded answer (sorry, it's my nature), I just don't think Sugano would be my top-5 guys I'd be looking for. If it's mid-January, the Cubs have struck out across the board (through real efforts) and we are still looking for the rotational piece? I'd cycle back to Sugano as I don't think he's a turd. I just don't think he's anything atop my wish list and the Cubs should be at a point where being picky early and getting the best guy should be their priority.

While this is true, I don't even think this was a case of Fujinami not translating to MLB. It was a case of Fujinami can't throw strikes.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

While this is true, I don't even think this was a case of Fujinami not translating to MLB. It was a case of Fujinami can't throw strikes.

My somewhat pedantic counter point would be this: isn't that kind of the same thing, though? The reason he didn't translate is because he didn't throw enough strikes. I'd say that's the same thing. We have seen this with MiLB arms too - guys appear to not walk hitters until hitters become better and don't chase their stuff. Fuinami didn't walk hitters in the NPB very often (most years).