What should we be worried about next year?

[Bertz]

There's an argument going in another thread about the workloads Alzolay and Merryweather had late last year and how that torpedoed this year's bullpen. Regardless of where you fall on blame, in hindsight I do think we probably should have been a lot more worried about carry-over from their late season '23 maladies.

So with that in mind, what are some things we should worry about heading into next year that might not be considering three months from now when we're deep into Max Fried watch?  I've got three:

1. We should be prepared for Amaya and PCA to be crappy hitters. Their progression has been THE story of the second half of the year. However, according to Dan Szymborski (the ZiPS guy) 1st half/2nd half splits do not have predictive value on future projections, it's the full year data that matters. On top of that, neither guy has even had 600 MLB plate appearances yet so there's still some risk of them full on washing out like you often see with second year players

2. The rotation is riddled with injury risk. Every SP in the org who likely figures into next year's plans except for Shota and Brandon Birdsell has spent time on the IL this year. All of those except for Jameson Taillon and Ben Brown have been IL'd for an arm injury. The Cubs have great rotation depth, nine guys I'd personally feel comfortable starting a game, but attrition really needs to be top of mind

3. Every bench guy on the team is either outright bad or at least a bad roster fit. Mike Tauchman should stick around if Bellinger leaves, but otherwise this group needs to be completely renovated. The starting lineup is very good. There's also a great crop of hitters at Iowa. But the lack of anything in between leaves the team really exposed to injury, particularly in the first half when you likely can't count on the kids yet. This ties back to point #1 too, we *need* strong backups/low end starters at CF and C especially

What else should we worry about?

[Cuzi]

Being better than teams in your division spending $80M less on their roster.

[jersey cubs fan]

If we should expect PCA and Amaya to be bad hitters (#1) then I’m not quite sure how we can say the starting lineup is very good (#3). I think it’s more accurate to describe the starting lineup as average to above with very limited upside. And the same injury concerns about the rotation apply to this aging lineup, as most of the guys have spent time on the IL with regularity. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We should be prepared for the macro run environment and Wrigley's park factors to revert towards norms in a way that hurts the rotation/pitching staff more than it helps the offense.  For reasons both understandable and frustrating not many people want to hear this but there should be more urgency/net resources given to the pitching staff than the offense.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Definitely worried about this offense, Swanson continued regression. Looks like his last year with the Braves was his peak

[CubinNY]

The pen. I know that’s not new or news, but yeah, it’s bad if it takes two plus months to get sorted again.

[squally1313]

Agreed on the pen but also don't really know any scenario where you go into a season not worried about it. Cleveland has the best pen this year. Last year they were 16th. 

It's the starting pitching by a pretty large margin for me. I would like the offense to be better but realistically we're going to be talking about somewhere between the 8th and 12th best offense and it's just going to be marginal differences one way or another. Shota or Steele goes down for any extended period of time and things can very ugly, very quickly. 

[Outshined_One]

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The pen. I know that’s not new or news, but yeah, it’s bad if it takes two plus months to get sorted again.

Plus bullpen arms are so damned finicky and the Cubs' RP depth is muddled.  The Cubs could sign Clay Holmes and trade for Emmanuel Clase in the offseason, and I'd still be worried about the bullpen going into 2025.

[Sammy Sofa]

[Bertz]

46 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Agreed on the pen but also don't really know any scenario where you go into a season not worried about it. Cleveland has the best pen this year. Last year they were 16th. 

It's the starting pitching by a pretty large margin for me. I would like the offense to be better but realistically we're going to be talking about somewhere between the 8th and 12th best offense and it's just going to be marginal differences one way or another. Shota or Steele goes down for any extended period of time and things can very ugly, very quickly. 

I think the rotation helps the pen too if you get the right guy.  This year Kyle averaged 4.7 innings per start, Wicks 4.2. and Wesneski 5.1.  Replace 30 of those starts with someone who goes closer to 6 on average and it makes a difference, particularly during the sprints where the team has like 20 games in 21 days.  

[JBears79]

If we dont add a power bat, im expecting more of the same. Jed dumpster diving for "value" instead of actually trying to compete.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

If we dont add a power bat, im expecting more of the same. Jed dumpster diving for "value" instead of actually trying to compete.

Where do we put this power bat? I do not disagree we need more power. But not just a power bat. As someone pointed out, replacing Bellinger who could give you 18-22 homers and good defense at multiple positions for someone like Alonso, as an example, does add power. But it doesn’t make the team better. You are replacing one guy who can have a WAR around 3 with another guy who has a WAR around 3. They just do it differently. 
But, I also agree with yiu that we shouldn’t dumpster dive. If Bellinger opts out there is no reason not to go hard and get Soto. There is also no reason not to shop at the high end of the FA pitcher market. And if that doesn’t work, no reason not to go heavy into a bat like Tucker or Vlad . Or go hard after a Seattle pitcher or any other higher end pitcher in a trade. They don’t need power just for the sake of power. They need to add impact players. Not bargain/value players.. Hopefully Jed has some urgency, we have seen yet from him, this year.

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the rotation helps the pen too if you get the right guy.  This year Kyle averaged 4.7 innings per start, Wicks 4.2. and Wesneski 5.1.  Replace 30 of those starts with someone who goes closer to 6 on average and it makes a difference, particularly during the sprints where the team has like 20 games in 21 days.  

Yeah, it helps by minimizing their load and also by giving yourself whatever combo of Wes/Wicks/Assad as 'go throw as hard as you can for two innings' bullpen options (at basically league minimum!)

[Cuzi]

There is no reason to tie a decision on signing Juan Soto to Bellinger opting in or out.

Regardless of what Bellinger decides to do... put the god damn gas pedal to the horsefeathers floor for Juan Soto.

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

There is no reason to tie a decision on signing Juan Soto to Bellinger opting in or out.

Regardless of what Bellinger decides to do... put the god damn gas pedal to the horsefeathers floor for Juan Soto.

I'm not disagreeing, but does this sound like a Jed/Ricketts move?

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'm not disagreeing, but does this sound like a Jed/Ricketts move?

No. And that's the point.

What Jed/Ricketts are doing doesn't work.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

No. And that's the point.

What Jed/Ricketts are doing doesn't work.

 - how do you beat the game?

 - easy, set it on beginning difficulty and then turn off any rules that makes the game hard

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

 - how do you beat the game?

 - easy, set it on beginning difficulty and then turn off any rules that makes the game hard

The Cubs can have it set to beginning difficulty and would choose to fight war with a stick, making it hard.

Edited September 27, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

There is no reason to tie a decision on signing Juan Soto to Bellinger opting in or out.

Regardless of what Bellinger decides to do... put the god damn gas pedal to the horsefeathers floor for Juan Soto.

I absolutely agree with this. I just don’t see Jed doing something like that. I am very doubtful they do it even if Bellinger opts out. Almost no chance if he stays. But he is exactly who they should get, and  worry about other moves after that. 

[CubinNY]

Inida is a really good offensive 2nd baseman. His defense is not great though. 

[JBears79]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Where do we put this power bat? I do not disagree we need more power. But not just a power bat. As someone pointed out, replacing Bellinger who could give you 18-22 homers and good defense at multiple positions for someone like Alonso, as an example, does add power. But it doesn’t make the team better. You are replacing one guy who can have a WAR around 3 with another guy who has a WAR around 3. They just do it differently. 
But, I also agree with yiu that we shouldn’t dumpster dive. If Bellinger opts out there is no reason not to go hard and get Soto. There is also no reason not to shop at the high end of the FA pitcher market. And if that doesn’t work, no reason not to go heavy into a bat like Tucker or Vlad . Or go hard after a Seattle pitcher or any other higher end pitcher in a trade. They don’t need power just for the sake of power. They need to add impact players. Not bargain/value players.. Hopefully Jed has some urgency, we have seen yet from him, this year.

I really dont know at this point. Its a good question. But we desperately need one. 

[Tim]

Geez, I just looked at the final numbers. The Cubs had five guys who ended their (complete) season at 3.4 WAR or better, and PCA would have joined them with more playing time. That's a hell of a foundation to build from.

[We Got The Whole 9]

4 minutes ago, Tim said:

Geez, I just looked at the final numbers. The Cubs had five guys who ended their (complete) season at 3.4 WAR or better, and PCA would have joined them with more playing time. That's a hell of a foundation to build from.

It's pretty nuts that they also have 5 top 100 prospects already in AAA and 3 SP at least that just posted top 20 ERAs.

 

They need to sharpen some of the gameplanning and strategy that MIL thrives with. There's no reason those teams should have been separated by 10 games.

[Irrelevant Dude]

16 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

It's pretty nuts that they also have 5 top 100 prospects already in AAA

That is a really interesting "problem" to have.  While some of those guys are still really young for AAA, it does feel like a bit of a turning point for the Cubs on a few levels.  Can they make use of that AAA prospect capital now to significantly improve the Major League roster (either directly or through trades)?  At the same time, can they replenish and continue to develop talent in the lower minors to maintain what is clearly a top-heavy Minor League system at the moment?

[Bertz]

The Giants dumped Farhan Zaidi.  SFG is going to be an interesting team to follow.  Farhan and Jed are basically the same guy, both teams are pretty reticent to cross the LT to a meaningful degree, and both teams end the 2024 season within a few games of each other.  The Cubs have more young talent on hand, while the Giants have more money on hand, but overall I'd put their respective org health in a similar place?

SFG will presumably get the top GM on the market this winter, so if you want a glimpse at the alternate reality where PTR dumps Jed it's a pretty good analogue to track the next year or two.