2024 AFL Thread

[Tryptamine]

10 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

I'm going to go full Tom here. Is it too much to ask for Cowles to be Ben Zobrist?

[Tryptamine]

20 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t necessarily 1:1 post and pre pandemic MiLB stats but Ben Zobrist as a jumbo, switch hitting SS in MiLB:

.315/.427/.455 with a 263:205 BB/K in 1700+ PAs

Cowles in MiLB: .268/.365/.426

Most to highlight how the world still doesn’t appreciate how great a player Zobrist was all the way through 

It's under the assumption that the real Cowles is the one who reduced his K% from 27.5% in 2022 to 17.7% in 2023. If he's that guy, he could end up being a very valuable player.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Another angle on the HR:

 

[Bertz]

Has he lost weight?  He's not skinny by any means but he looks like he's built like a Naylor brother now?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm scared of what we thought Ballesteros looked like before if the slimmer version of him is evoking comparisons to the Naylors

[CubinNY]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

Has he lost weight?  He's not skinny by any means but he looks like he's built like a Naylor brother now?

The uni is baggy, but it definitely looks like he’s lost weight. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Also had an out at 101.3 EV.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Oh horsefeathers elite bat speed

[Bertz]

Me ranking Long 15th in the system a few weeks ago

 

[Tim]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Me ranking Long 15th in the system a few weeks ago

 

I'm going to my grave claiming that leaving him out of my top 20 was a software glitch.

 

(I did intend to have him around 10-12, but there was a brain glitch)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[muntjack]

Most definitely cut some weight.   The next year or so is going to be very interesting. They've had a higher ceiling prospect group, obviously, but no quality logjam like this that I can remember.  Could have 8 top 100 prospects in Iowa at some point next season.  That's bonkers.  

(I'm sure they'll move some of these guys in the next few months, but still.)  

[Irrelevant Dude]

I'm coming around to the idea of giving Ballasteros significantly more time in AAA and giving him every opportunity to develop as a Catcher.  If that means he stays in Iowa for another year plus, that is ok.  Even though his bat may be ready, he is young enough to allow him the time he needs to develop defensively.  There is just too much value in being able to plug a plus bat with power into the Catcher position, even if it takes a little longer to get there.

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I'm coming around to the idea of giving Ballasteros significantly more time in AAA and giving him every opportunity to develop as a Catcher.  If that means he stays in Iowa for another year plus, that is ok.  Even though his bat may be ready, he is young enough to allow him the time he needs to develop defensively.  There is just too much value in being able to plug a plus bat with power into the Catcher position, even if it takes a little longer to get there.

Alternatively, DH is an actual position. Let him DH and work with at the big league level (BP, pregame, off days) on conditioning and defense. There is no value to the club leaving him in AAA if he can handle MLB pitching. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

I don't think you can expect someone to simultaneously DH and improve defensively at catcher.  He needs to be getting game experience.  Are there any other examples of guys with limited Minor League catching experience who have started as a DH in MLB and became a full-time catcher later?

[Outshined_One]

7 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I don't think you can expect someone to simultaneously DH and improve defensively at catcher.  He needs to be getting game experience.  Are there any other examples of guys with limited Minor League catching experience who have started as a DH in MLB and became a full-time catcher later?

A lot of us were hoping the Cubs would figure out a way to do something like that with Kyle Schwarber waaaaay back in the day.

That obviously did not happen.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 10/19/2024 at 11:12 AM, CubinNY said:

Alternatively, DH is an actual position. Let him DH and work with at the big league level (BP, pregame, off days) on conditioning and defense. There is no value to the club leaving him in AAA if he can handle MLB pitching. 

He won't actually learn how to catch doing that.

[Jason Ross]

This is part of the "problem" with Ballesteros (note that I'm saying "problem" a bit...tongue in cheek here)...his bat is well too advanced for his glove. He's going to eventually force the issue with his bat before his glove realistically gets to a point where he's likely a capable enough catcher. I'm kind of expecting the best case as a DH/3rd C type of a thing where he can catch some games when you really want to load up on offense and not entirely kill you behind the plate, but never good enough to really be 1a/1b back there ( ~80 games). I'm thinking like 20 or so...give or take. Maybe he grows into ~60 games a year but even that feels...like pushing it.

[CubinNY]

14 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

This is part of the "problem" with Ballesteros (note that I'm saying "problem" a bit...tongue in cheek here)...his bat is well too advanced for his glove. He's going to eventually force the issue with his bat before his glove realistically gets to a point where he's likely a capable enough catcher. I'm kind of expecting the best case as a DH/3rd C type of a thing where he can catch some games when you really want to load up on offense and not entirely kill you behind the plate, but never good enough to really be 1a/1b back there ( ~80 games). I'm thinking like 20 or so...give or take. Maybe he grows into ~60 games a year but even that feels...like pushing it.

He's already a better catcher than Schwaber ever was. He's not going to be a 1st baseman. I see no reason why the Cubs couldn't carry him as a primary DH and let him learn the position. But I also don't know where the deficiencies lie. He appears to have an adequate arm. I don't know about the rest of it. 

Give him another season in AAA, but if he's killing the ball, don't be afraid to bring him up. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

He's already a better catcher than Schwaber ever was. He's not going to be a 1st baseman. I see no reason why the Cubs couldn't carry him as a primary DH and let him learn the position. But I also don't know where the deficiencies lie. He appears to have an adequate arm. I don't know about the rest of it. 

Give him another season in AAA, but if he's killing the ball, don't be afraid to bring him up. 

Is he better than Schwarber? I'm not really sure he is any better than Schwarber. He's pretty rough back there based on reports. We get some cool highlights of him throwing a guy out...but that's a highlight. The general belief across the industry is that despite the digestible highlights we get on twitter/X that the overall body of work is...not great. Part of that is probably also due to his body size - it's not a normal body size we see. So I'll give some leeway into that - we just don't get good MilB catcher data and we're relying on a lot of subjective views which are probably influenced by his body type and preconceived notions. But I think this idea he's somehow more advanced than Schwarber is tenuous at best. He's been apart of the MiLB for longer, but I'm not sure he's any more advanced back there.

I think it's important to point out what others have though - he's not going to be able to be a DH whilst also learning catcher. He either needs to be a catcher almost every day, or he's not going to learn it. He needs game reps. So he's either going to be in Iowa crushing the baseball learning the position or in the MLB playing DH and falling behind further. 

[CubinNY]

31 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Is he better than Schwarber? I'm not really sure he is any better than Schwarber. He's pretty rough back there based on reports. We get some cool highlights of him throwing a guy out...but that's a highlight. The general belief across the industry is that despite the digestible highlights we get on twitter/X that the overall body of work is...not great. Part of that is probably also due to his body size - it's not a normal body size we see. So I'll give some leeway into that - we just don't get good MilB catcher data and we're relying on a lot of subjective views which are probably influenced by his body type and preconceived notions. But I think this idea he's somehow more advanced than Schwarber is tenuous at best. He's been apart of the MiLB for longer, but I'm not sure he's any more advanced back there.

I think it's important to point out what others have though - he's not going to be able to be a DH whilst also learning catcher. He either needs to be a catcher almost every day, or he's not going to learn it. He needs game reps. So he's either going to be in Iowa crushing the baseball learning the position or in the MLB playing DH and falling behind further. 

There is no doubt he's a better catcher than Schwarber ever was. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

There is no doubt he's a better catcher than Schwarber ever was. 

Can you please prove this with evidence? You've declared this as a fact multiple times, but have mentioned that you "don't know where the deficiencies lie". It seems difficult to make such a confident and declaratory sentiment if you don't know where Ballesteros' deficiencies lie. It would stand, then, that you would be unable to compare Schwarber's to Ballesteros'; deficiencies. 

Schwarber was a bad defensive catcher. I've seen nothing, data wise, to realistically suggest where Ballesteros fits into the greater picture of defensive catchers. What I can say is that for years scouts have been worried about his defense and that's very similar on paper to Schwarber. It feels very early and without much other than "I remember Schwarber was bad" vibes to suggest one is better than the other currently. I certainly hope Ballesteros is better. But that's all it feels like right now...hope.

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Can you please prove this with evidence? You've declared this as a fact multiple times, but have mentioned that you "don't know where the deficiencies lie". It seems difficult to make such a confident and declaratory sentiment if you don't know where Ballesteros' deficiencies lie. It would stand, then, that you would be unable to compare Schwarber's to Ballesteros'; deficiencies. 

Schwarber was a bad defensive catcher. I've seen nothing, data wise, to realistically suggest where Ballesteros fits into the greater picture of defensive catchers. What I can say is that for years scouts have been worried about his defense and that's very similar on paper to Schwarber. It feels very early and without much other than "I remember Schwarber was bad" vibes to suggest one is better than the other currently. I certainly hope Ballesteros is better. But that's all it feels like right now...hope.

Probably the fact that they didn't even try to see if Schwarber could catch. He spent about 1.3 full seasons in the minors and played OF more than catcher and not by a small percentagew. He was never a catcher in professional baseball in any real sense. It's not a "vibe". 

Edited October 21, 2024 by CubinNY