Cubs Planning To Add Starting Pitcher In Offseason

[Matthew Lenz]

Recently, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic ($) reported "the Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to a group that includes Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad."

The 2024 version of the starting rotation was a solid, yet unspectacular group that finished in the middle of MLB in multiple metrics, including K-BB%, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA among others.

While they do have young arms who will compete for a role in 2025, it's hard to settle with Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and or Cade Horton when the upcoming free agent class features names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and possibly Blake Snell, if he opts out of his deal with the San Francisco Giants. Even if they don't land one of the big names, one of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer, and or Justin Verlander could provide more production and reliability than one of their younger arms.

Darragh McDonald of MLBTR goes on to suggest a few trade partners for our Cubbies, stating "the trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussenreturned from longs absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on."

If these reports are true and the Cubs are in fact going to add a starter, who would you like for them to target?

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[Bertz]

I like Nate Eovaldi.  Gives us that jolt of velocity we don't currently have, proven big game guy, and personally I am very "age is just a number" when it comes to pitchers.  Fits very well as this generation's John Lackey IMO.

He is a bit south of being a true impact arm.  So I do think there's a bit higher baseline of what I want added to the offense if he's the SP add.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I like Nate Eovaldi.  Gives us that jolt of velocity we don't currently have, proven big game guy, and personally I am very "age is just a number" when it comes to pitchers.  Fits very well as this generation's John Lackey IMO.

He is a bit south of being a true impact arm.  So I do think there's a bit higher baseline of what I want added to the offense if he's the SP add.

Eovaldi does fit this FO MO. Probably get him for at most a 3 year deal. I would be more comfortable with 2, but he might get 3. That said, if he is the main pitcher they bring in they need to also spend on a pen arm or even 2, and a bat. He can’t be the big addition. Has to be a bigger move somewhere, IMO. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

trade for the SP, buy the C & RP, and try to trade for the bat

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

trade for the SP, buy the C & RP, and try to trade for the bat

I'm sure you have this broken out elsewhere so apologies, but is there a way to do that and also somewhat effectively allocate the $55m or so (before Cody) coming off the books? I generally agree with your statement, just...want to fill out the budget and keep the money out of Tom's pockets and haven't been able to square the two. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, squally1313 said:

I'm sure you have this broken out elsewhere so apologies, but is there a way to do that and also somewhat effectively allocate the $55m or so (before Cody) coming off the books? I generally agree with your statement, just...want to fill out the budget and keep the money out of Tom's pockets and haven't been able to square the two. 

Yes, the trades are likely for players on somewhat hefty arb salaries. This avoids making your biggest adds being more speculative(a la the Busch deal), and by adding an Arb 3 guy you're able to preserve a little 2026 flexibility where there's basically nothing coming off the books but you have a lot in internal increases(Steele, Paredes, Shota).

 

In practice, the SP could be Luis Castillo or Mitch Keller, the bat could be Vlad, Tucker, or Josh Naylor.  Combine with spending ~25 million on 2 relievers and a C and you fill up the spending bucket pretty quick.

[squally1313]

29 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Yes, the trades are likely for players on somewhat hefty arb salaries. This avoids making your biggest adds being more speculative(a la the Busch deal), and by adding an Arb 3 guy you're able to preserve a little 2026 flexibility where there's basically nothing coming off the books but you have a lot in internal increases(Steele, Paredes, Shota).

 

In practice, the SP could be Luis Castillo or Mitch Keller, the bat could be Vlad, Tucker, or Josh Naylor.  Combine with spending ~25 million on 2 relievers and a C and you fill up the spending bucket pretty quick.

Yeah makes sense. I think part of my issue is that I'm less enamored with Castillo/Keller/Eovaldi than I am with the other names thrown out there who I think are better but also happen to be cheaper. Agreed that one of the big trade bats most likely adds a big salary, and Kelly isn't insignificant. 

[Bertz]

From my POV, I don't LOVE any FA SPs this winter.  Of the SPs this year north of 100 IP, only 6 are top 20 in xFIP:

Jack Flaherty (#7)

Blake Snell (#8)

Yusei Kikuchi (#12)

Max Fried (#16)

Nate Eovaldi (#20)

Flaherty and Kikuchi each only pitched at an elite level for half of this season, and didn't have the most ironclad resumes coming into the year.  Max Fried is a command over stuff guy, Blake Snell has major consistency issues, and Nate Eovaldi has a pretty long track record of modestly underperforming his peripherals (as does Kikuchi).

There are several guys in this market who I like at #3 starter salaries like Jameson Taillon.  But 9 figure guys?  I would groan for a while and then I guess take Max Fried.  If SP is the biggest addition this winter I agree it's ideally via trade.

[Rob]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If SP is the biggest addition this winter I agree it's ideally via trade.

I mean, ideally, Sasaki would come over. IIRC, he'd be capped-out at something like $5-6M kinda like Ohtani was when he came over early. So if Jed made the right sales pitch, we could get the best pitcher on the market for a pittance.

Of course, if he does come over a year early he's probably signing with a better team than us. But maybe if we made an impact signing or trade to signal our intent to compete... So I guess we'd just have to sign Soto too.

[CubinNY]

This is one area that I trust them to make the correct decision if they target a guy. They have a pretty good track record. I'm more worried about injury than performance. 

[muntjack]

With the logjam of top 100 guys in AAA and a set OF if Bellinger returns,  does it make sense to overwhelm the Tigers for the one year of Skubal?

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

With the logjam of top 100 guys in AAA and a set OF if Bellinger returns,  does it make sense to overwhelm the Tigers for the one year of Skubal?

From your typing finger to God's  eyes

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

With the logjam of top 100 guys in AAA and a set OF if Bellinger returns,  does it make sense to overwhelm the Tigers for the one year of Skubal?

The Tigers are about to be a really good team. They are not trading Skubal. 

[muntjack]

I only proposed that because I think the Tigers could still field a competitive team next season while setting themselves up for a sustained run.  Skubal will likely be gone in FA after 25.     

A deal centered around Horton, Wicks/Brown and Alcantara or along those lines would be productive for both teams.   

[CubinNY]

NM

Edited September 30, 2024 by CubinNY

[Tryptamine]

Flaherty should be the guy. I have little to no interest in giving Burnes the 6+ year deal he's going to get. Flaherty provides the highest mix of stuff with a likely 4 year or less contract option out there. Fried is probably #2 on that list. and safer option to repeat his results. 

[CubinNY]

10 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Flaherty should be the guy. I have little to no interest in giving Burnes the 6+ year deal he's going to get. Flaherty provides the highest mix of stuff with a likely 4 year or less contract option out there. Fried is probably #2 on that list. and safer option to repeat his results. 

I'm on the Fried train until he signs elsewhere and we smugly note how bad the contract is. 

[Bertz]

I would guess Burnes gets something approximating Strasburg money (7/$245M), Fried and Snell get something like Aaron Nola money (7/$172M), and Kikuchi/Flahery both get something like Kevin Gausman money (5/$110M).

I don't know that I want to go there for any of these guys, but Fried's the one I would be most into, and Burnes the one I would be least into. 

[Bertz]

I guess just to double up, Corbin Burnes gives me very strong 2016 Jake Arrieta vibes.  The velo is still there, the ERA is still sparkling, and the uber-dominance isn't that far in the rear view mirror.  But you pop the hood open and damn near everything else is going in the wrong direction.

He's still good, after all even with the decline he's coming off an extremely high perch.  But when you consider likely salary I don't want to touch him and even setting salary aside I don't think it takes crazy mental gymnastics to take some other guys ahead of him.

[Tim]

Would anyone be interested in trading for Sandy Alcantara coming off surgery? He's already throwing from a mound, so he should pitch most of 2025.

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Tim said:

Would anyone be interested in trading for Sandy Alcantara coming off surgery? He's already throwing from a mound, so he should pitch most of 2025.

raises hand.

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, Tim said:

Would anyone be interested in trading for Sandy Alcantara coming off surgery? He's already throwing from a mound, so he should pitch most of 2025.

As always, depends on the cost. He's under control for 2 more years with a third year being a team option. If something like Rojas+Triantos+Lottery ticket gets it done I'm game, but I'm not parting with the big names for a guy coming off TJS. 

[Tim]

43 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

As always, depends on the cost. He's under control for 2 more years with a third year being a team option. If something like Rojas+Triantos+Lottery ticket gets it done I'm game, but I'm not parting with the big names for a guy coming off TJS. 

If they don't get at least one big name, they'll hold him until the trade deadline to let him re-establish more value.

[Tryptamine]

28 minutes ago, Tim said:

If they don't get at least one big name, they'll hold him until the trade deadline to let him re-establish more value.

If you're going to give up the big names, then just get a pitcher who isn't coming off TJS then. 

[Tim]

22 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If you're going to give up the big names, then just get a pitcher who isn't coming off TJS then. 

I'd argue that he's a big name coming off TJS, but I get your point

Edited to add ...

This is why I shouldn't post from my phone