Bears Week 2 at Texans: SNF on NBC

[Brian707]

Still thinks Rome sits Sunday but would think he will be back vs the Colts

[Derwood]

21 hours ago, cwood218 said:

Any GM that drafts any RB in the first round 1.1 through 1.32 absolutely must be fired immediately. No exceptions. I don't care if you think you're drafting Barry Sanders etc. no RB is ever remotely close to being worthy of a first round pick. A select few might be worthy of a second round pick but that is questionable.  

 

 

I would say that Christian McCaffrey was worth a 1st rounder

[Soul]

9 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

That is why Flus' seat is NOT even warm right now, much less hot. So unless the Bears are something like 2-7 after 9, I don't expect Flus seat to be hot until possibly next season. 

Yes, Poles overhauled the team especially the offense.  Then he entrusted it to a head coach who has shown nothing for 2 seasons.  If Eberflus succeeds, good.  But I don’t understand why Poles decided to stick with the old while bringing in the new.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

14 minutes ago, Soul said:

Yes, Poles overhauled the team especially the offense.  Then he entrusted it to a head coach who has shown nothing for 2 seasons.  If Eberflus succeeds, good.  But I don’t understand why Poles decided to stick with the old while bringing in the new.

 

You don't think the defense significantly improving last season and going 7-6 after an 0-4 start counts as showing something?

[cwood218]

12 hours ago, Derwood said:

I would say that Christian McCaffrey was worth a 1st rounder

I, of course, strongly disagree.

For example when Carolina used pick 1.8 in 2017 on McCaffrey.

they passed on

QB Mahomes 1.10

CB Lattimore 1.11

LB Reddick 1.13

CB Humphrey 1.16

DE Allen 1.17

OLB Watt 1.30

OT Ramczyk 1.32

Any one of the above players along with one of the following RB's would have been much better use of resources then just McCaffrey.

Cook went 2.41

Mixon went 2.48

Kamara went 3.67

Jones went 5.182

Eckler was a UDFA

I just don't think the drop off from McCaffrey to one of the above Running Backs comes close to making up for missing out on one the players in the first list.

The Running Back Paradox

Why Running Backs Don't Matter

Edited September 12, 2024 by cwood218

[BigbadB]

LA Rams put both their starting LT and LG on injured reserve. That should make Stafford a more easy target when the Bears play them. 

[Old Style]

CMC might not have been the BEST pick there but it was in no way a mistake to draft him in the first round. 

[WrigleyField 22]

2 hours ago, cwood218 said:

I, of course, strongly disagree.

For example when Carolina used pick 1.8 in 2017 on McCaffrey.

they passed on

QB Mahomes 1.10

CB Lattimore 1.11

LB Reddick 1.13

CB Humphrey 1.16

DE Allen 1.17

OLB Watt 1.30

OT Ramczyk 1.32

Any one of the above players along with one of the following RB's would have been much better use of resources then just McCaffrey.

Cook went 2.41

Mixon went 2.48

Kamara went 3.67

Jones went 5.182

Eckler was a UDFA

I just don't think the drop off from McCaffrey to one of the above Running Backs comes close to making up for missing out on one the players in the first list.

The Running Back Paradox

Why Running Backs Don't Matter

Yep. Now McCaffrey would have been worth a 20 something first, but 8 was a moderate over draft. Though I've seen plenty worse.  It was in some ways a risk averse pick since the floor was so high.  But like all RB they also have to stay healthy and he missed plenty of snaps over his 6 years in Carolina.

[WrigleyField 22]

I feel like the RB formula should be roughly:

1-6: no

7-16: would I draft this same skills set as a slot only receiver at this pick

17-45: 3 down player who can run, catch, and block. Does not need to be subbed out in any situation

46-70: can catch ball but not necessarily strengrh

71+ : is good RB

 

May be a few exceptions but don't disprove the rule.

Edited September 12, 2024 by WrigleyField 22

[raw]

I think this game helps the offense improve a bit. The Bears match up well against the Texans D. The Texans gave up 27 points and were middle of the pack in yards allowed. They don't have the DTs to test the interior OL (they are starting Bears legend, Mario Edwards at one spot). They have very good edge guys, but the Bears tackles are pretty good. But DeMeco Ryans is also very good, so he could do some things to confuse Caleb. And if the Bears are missing Rome and have a less than 100% Allen, he has the ability to scheme to limit DJ and force Caleb to spread the ball to other people. 

They are also pretty good against the run. Allowed 3.5 per carry last year, which was 2nd best in the league. Held Jonathan Taylor under that in Week 1. 

But the Bears kind of match up poorly against their offense. They are similar to the Titans in that they have 3 pretty good WRs. The difference is the Texans guys are younger and much better. And of course, they have a real QB. 

Stroud is one of those elite pocket passers that people have been wondering if the Bears could beat. Unlike a guy like Goff, Stroud can move just enough to give them trouble getting home. Stroud doesn't take a ton of sacks. And most importantly, he doesn't turn the ball over. 5 INTs in 18 career games (including playoffs). 3 of those INTs came in 1 game. Also, only 4 fumbles lost, 2 in the same game, the other 2, one each in his first 2 games. So you can't count on the defense scoring to save your ass this week. Probably can't even count on a short field unless the non-Velus special teams are great again.

I said last week that I would be surprised if the Bears didn't cover the spread and stunned if they outright lost, and that game clearly went exactly as I expected it. But this week, they are going to 100% HAVE to score multiple TDs on offense to not get blown out of the water. I do think they get it going a bit. Hopefully, they can keep Stroud off the field by taking time off the clock. Caleb Williams has still not thrown an NFL TD pass, including preseason.  

I'll be surprised if the Texans don't cover the 6.5-7 point spread, depending on where you look. I'll be stunned if the Bears outright win this game. Bears are 0-9 in their last SNF road games. They have lost 7 straight on SNF overall. This game isn't unwinnable, per se. But it's probably unwinnable for the Week 2 Bears, coming off of the Week 1 performance. If they do anything on offense, and control the clock, maybe they hang in there and lose 27-20.

[WrigleyField 22]

All I'm hearing is the Bears are due for a SNF win

[We Got The Whole 9]

How many of those were against the horsefeathers Packers

[Brian707]

11 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

How many of those were against the horsefeathers Packers

Probably most lol. I think last SNF road win was in Pittsburgh 2013 to start Trestman 3-0. Lol

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't care if the defense gets 40 dropped on them by CJ Stroud. I just want to see Caleb Williams look competent.

[BigSlick]

This is a real gut check game. I think, ultimately, the Tennessee game showed the Bears are at least a pretty talented football team up and down the 53 man roster. ST and Defense carrying a huge load. Absolutely not a blueprint for continued success (it is not, and will never be 2005 again), but it could be a good indicator that if the Offense can rise to the occasion, this is a pretty good team. 
 

so with luck, we’ll learn a lot more about that offense on Sunday night. I’m not as strident as Kyle, but I am of the feeling that 90% of this season is keeping an eye on Caleb and his development. Hopefully, he puts it more together this week. A competitive L here with Caleb making strides is a W in general.

[cwood218]

4 hours ago, Old Style said:

CMC might not have been the BEST pick there but it was in no way a mistake to draft him in the first round. 

The best running backs offer so little surplus value, over replacement level running backs, that using any first through third round pick on them is essentially lighting that pick on fire.

[minnesotacubsfan]

10 minutes ago, cwood218 said:

The best running backs offer so little surplus value, over replacement level running backs, that using any first through third round pick on them is essentially lighting that pick on fire.

he had over 2k yards and 21 td's last season and has consistently been very good*, most people would qualify that as worthy of a rd 1 pick

 

*when healthy

Edited September 12, 2024 by minnesotacubsfan

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm sure some RBs are worth early picks.  I hope other teams avail themselves of them.

Meanwhile, watching Caleb Williams college video to reassure myself that he can, in fact, throw a football to the spot he intends to throw it.

[gflore34]

13 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I'm sure some RBs are worth early picks.  I hope other teams avail themselves of them.

Meanwhile, watching Caleb Williams college video to reassure myself that he can, in fact, throw a football to the spot he intends to throw it.

Regardless of what Caleb said I believe he was nervous and hyped.  There's a plethora of evidence that accuracy is not a problem and I don't believe it'll continue.

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I don't care if the defense gets 40 dropped on them by CJ Stroud. I just want to see Caleb Williams look competent.

Would you rather have the Bears win 10-9 but Caleb goes 15-25 for 125 0Tds 2INT 

or

Texans win 31-28 but Caleb goes 20-25 4TDs 320 yards 0 INT?

 

Myself I would go option 2.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, Brian707 said:

Would you rather have the Bears win 10-9 but Caleb goes 15-25 for 125 0Tds 2INT 

or

Texans win 31-28 but Caleb goes 20-25 4TDs 320 yards 0 INT?

 

Myself I would go option 2.

2 ainec

 

I think i take williams 280 2/2 over another TAWWTTA win

Edited September 12, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[gflore34]

5 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Would you rather have the Bears win 10-9 but Caleb goes 15-25 for 125 0Tds 2INT 

or

Texans win 31-28 but Caleb goes 20-25 4TDs 320 yards 0 INT?

 

Myself I would go option 2.

2, all day, any day

[Old Style]

I want to win.  

[minnesotacubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Old Style said:

I want to win.  

same. and I'm totally fine hurting QBs to get there

[raw]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Regardless of what Caleb said I believe he was nervous and hyped.  There's a plethora of evidence that accuracy is not a problem and I don't believe it'll continue.

Definitely. If we take him at his word that he doesn't get nervous, then he was at least amped. I don't believe it will continue either, but the first primetime game of your career with the world watching, against last year's standard for rookie QB play, probably isn't exactly the calm surroundings he needs to settle himself.

 

And I absolutely take big Caleb game and a loss than another stinker and a win. This is an expected loss. Winning would be nice, but they literally face 1 other non-division team that is this good or better (Detroit is better, but didn't include them because the Bears should have swept them last year), a good showing would bode larger than another bad offensive showing,.