Cubs (Assad) vs Marlins (Oller): 8/25/24, 12:40pm

[Tank]

People love to poo poo on Assad but he gave us a quality start and a winnable game.

[chibears55]

Cam Smith is powering it up at Myrtle Beach,  he has a homer in 5 consecutive games now.

Ladt 5 games

9 for 16   double , 5 HRs, 9 RBI

[Tank]

We don't deserve Mike Tauchman.

[jumbo]

Tinoco was lighting it up

[Soul]

It feels like the Cubs have put up an explosion of runs, and then the next day almost no offense quite a few times.

[Tank]

1 minute ago, Soul said:

It feels like the Cubs have put up an explosion of runs, and then the next day almost no offense quite a few times.

The offense has a recharging period of 2-4 business days. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Cam Smith is powering it up at Myrtle Beach,  he has a homer in 5 consecutive games now.

Ladt 5 games

9 for 16   double , 5 HRs, 9 RBI

There's a minor league forum you know 

[Bertz]

So as far as I can tell that was the lowest velo of Merrweather's career by nearly a full MPH.  Savant has it was lower than his season average by 2.4.

He's probably hurt again.

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So as far as I can tell that was the lowest velo of Merrweather's career by nearly a full MPH.  Savant has it was lower than his season average by 2.4.

He's probably hurt again.

Yeah, he definitely shouldn't be counted on as a part of the 2025 bullpen at this point.

[chibears55]

Wow..

https://x.com/Pelicanbaseball/status/1827835186010038436?t=IzyEjvI7LkHXx4dID87L4Q&s=19

[Derwood]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Wow..

https://x.com/Pelicanbaseball/status/1827835186010038436?t=IzyEjvI7LkHXx4dID87L4Q&s=19

 

an unembedded X link. Wow indeed

[LBiittner]

4 hours ago, Tank said:

I'll take 7 innings of 5-hit, 3-run ball from a 5th spot in the rotation all year. The offense has got to do better. 

Just asking, if assad is a 5, does that make Hendricks a 4?

[Tank]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Just asking, if assad is a 5, does that make Hendricks a 4?

I would call Hendricks 5b at this point. 

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I have no desire to see Assad as a starter next year.

Assad has a 3.11 ERA as a SP and a career 3.05 ERA as a SP, which is better Steele's career SP ERA (in half the IP though).  Very likely not sustainable with that LOB% but still.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Bertz said:

So as far as I can tell that was the lowest velo of Merrweather's career by nearly a full MPH.  Savant has it was lower than his season average by 2.4.

He's probably hurt again.

Well he was also out for half the season, that's going to atrophy some of your muscle strength if you can't throw for that long.  You could be right though hard to say i guess.

[Bull]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Well he was also out for half the season, that's going to atrophy some of your muscle strength if you can't throw for that long.  You could be right though hard to say i guess.

But he's been back for a month. Dead arm period?

[Tryptamine]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Assad has a 3.11 ERA as a SP and a career 3.05 ERA as a SP, which is better Steele's career SP ERA (in half the IP though).  Very likely not sustainable with that LOB% but still.

He also rarely makes it through the 6th and while he has proven to be  a FIP/xFIP/xERA beater over a 200+ inning sample at this point, I find it extremely hard to believe he's going to keep doing so by almost a full 1.5 runs. It's not like I want him off the team, but I'd rather he be used for piggy backing or for 2 to 3 inning stretches from the pen. 

[squally1313]

I think it's fine to simultaneously say that Javier Assad is perfectly in line with average to above average production from the 5th starter spot around baseball and also strongly prefer that we sign someone better or some internal option pushes him to the bullpen where he can face 9 hitters once.

[Bertz]

Yeah adding a starter closer in talent to Steele/Shota than Taillon is a very straightforward and weirdly under-discussed way to add a bunch of wins to this team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Yeah adding a starter closer in talent to Steele/Shota than Taillon is a very straightforward and weirdly under-discussed way to add a bunch of wins to this team.

Also makes it a lot easier to talk yourself out of paying for a particular reliever if you've got e.g. Assad/Wesneski/Brown all slated for the MLB pen on opening day.

Jed has been pretty consistent so far in his tenure of making money investments in at least 1 SP and 1 bat per offseason(Stroman/Seiya, Taillon/Dansby, Shota/Bellinger).  Maybe that reaches a point of diminishing returns, and it doesn't necessarily mean a Steele/Shota caliber arm. But especially with the young pitching injuries limiting the IP they can get from them in 2025, I would expect to see a material SP addition.

[Bertz]

53 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Also makes it a lot easier to talk yourself out of paying for a particular reliever if you've got e.g. Assad/Wesneski/Brown all slated for the MLB pen on opening day.

Jed has been pretty consistent so far in his tenure of making money investments in at least 1 SP and 1 bat per offseason(Stroman/Seiya, Taillon/Dansby, Shota/Bellinger).  Maybe that reaches a point of diminishing returns, and it doesn't necessarily mean a Steele/Shota caliber arm. But especially with the young pitching injuries limiting the IP they can get from them in 2025, I would expect to see a material SP addition.

Yeah I think it has some real compounding effects in a positive direction:

- You're getting a direct upgrade by more or less replacing Hendricks with a guy you expect to be 2.5-3 runs of ERA better

- Like you said you're bolstering the pen, I'd anticipate Wesneski and Assad there, the former in short relief the latter in long

- The opening day Iowa rotation, even with the above assumed in the pen, is Horton, Birdsell, Noland, and whichever of Brown/Wicks doesn't get the 5th starter spot

- I think with that level of depth, you can more comfortably hunt for upside with that 5th spot and give it to Brown and take a big swing to try for star caliber production

- While we've seen how quickly pitching depth can fade away, assuming the veteran we bring in doesn't have notably scary medicals you can probably afford to trade one of the pre arb SPs.  Including an MLB ready (or damn close) SP is a really good way to differentiate a trade offer to either win a bidding war or potentially convince an obstinate southern California GM to stop being a wuss and make a deal already

[squally1313]

Yeah I generally lean to the side that you shouldn't care much about where your production comes from (offense, pitching, defense), and so a significant update in your rotation equals a significant update in your offense. I think it's harder to point to specific options, and I think people generally think that offensive production is more reliably projectable? Given injuries, BABIP, etc. 

On the free agent side, there's Burnes (small gap) Snell Fried (gap) Flaherty. And then from there, for me, you run into a bunch of flawed and/or old options (Bieber, Eovaldi, Montgomery, Wacha) where you're probably still looking at multiple year commitments (with an implied multi year commitment to a starting role) with a pretty limited ceiling (basically: more Taillons). And yes, pitchers don't stay healthy, but that's multiple years committed to Steele/Shota/Taillon/new guy with only "one" real spot for Horton/Brown/Wicks/Wes/Assad/Kilian/Birdsong/etc. Odds are most of them end up sucking, but makes it hard to give multiple of them that extended you look you need to see if we can produce another top line starter or two.

Trade options are more interesting. Empty the farm for Skubal? Swap offense for pitching with Seattle? Few ways to play that.

[chibears55]

I expect to see a couple of trades this offseason to upgrade areas. 

They have a few pieces in the system that they can move, plus if Caissie and Alcantara are ready to come up they have to decide with the current outfielders who to go with.

Then you got Shaw and Triantos who are about ready too.

Hoyer gonna have money available, a few players he can trade, and prospects ready to come up to upgrade this roster quite a bit.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

He also rarely makes it through the 6th and while he has proven to be  a FIP/xFIP/xERA beater over a 200+ inning sample at this point, I find it extremely hard to believe he's going to keep doing so by almost a full 1.5 runs. It's not like I want him off the team, but I'd rather he be used for piggy backing or for 2 to 3 inning stretches from the pen. 

Yeah he'd be fine in a piggy-back or swing guy role.  Hopefully we have enough healthy SP to make that happen.

He might just have had some control issues since coming back from injury.  He did a bit better last year getting deeper in games.