Chicago Bears preseason

[jersey cubs fan]

13 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Wonder if this affects any potential extension for Allen. Feels like he is probably a one and done and I’m ok with that given his age. 

Also I have no idea if this makes sense but I was thinking the other day about how many of the elite teams in football actually carry 3 elite WRs on the roster (assuming Rome becomes elite). Obviously for many teams it’s not feasible because a big chunk of their cap is tied up on the QB. So you see things like the Chiefs getting rid of Tyreek Hill and Bills trading Diggs. Rodgers always bitched about lack of weapons but did just fine with Adams and scraps. Brady had that one monster season with Moss but in general lacked elite WR1s. 
 

It’s great that for Caleb’s rookie season he has 3 potential WR1s on the roster.  It will really help him get him acclimated to the NFL, especially with an extremely QB friendly WR/safety blanket in Allen. But if Caleb progresses like we hope, maybe we try to entice him with a 1-2 year extension. But if the excess cap room we have from Caleb’s rookie contract can better be used at a different position group, then I am on board with not bringing him back because if Caleb really does become an upper echelon QB, the need for numerous elite WRs is lessened greatly. 

I think plenty of teams go with multiple stud receivers for a couple years until they can’t afford it. This trio won’t be together for long, but if they can be for 2 years I’d take it. 

[Outshined_One]

19 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Before anything happens - What will a successful season look like for the Bears? I'm interested in what people think. 

1 - They finish the season with all of their key skill players healthy. Some positions are deep enough to withstand injuries that are part and parcel of any NFL season, and guys are going to get dinged up and need occasional games off, but injuries are also the easiest way to derail what could be an otherwise successful season.

2 - Record above .500, with the team either in a playoff spot or vying for a playoff spot in the last two weeks of the season.

3 - No QB controversies. I don't want the sort of season where people openly clamor for Tyson Bagent as the starter, and their opinions are taken seriously because Caleb is struggling badly.

4 - Top 15 offense, Top 10 defense.

Reasonable things!

[jersey cubs fan]

While I get the hype around the defense, the lack of pass rush really makes me doubt the group as a whole when it comes to overall rankings with the best. There should be a reasonably high floor for both the defense and the offense, and I’d sign up for top 15 by both groups. 
 

I don’t have a lot of faith in Eberflus but a quality season will end with little controversy about any of the coaches keeping their jobs. 
 

If we’re begging for an OC upgrade or Eberflus to be let go then the season has gone off the rails. 

[Bertz]

FWIW DVOA basically hates the team this year.  It doesn't like that the defensive turnaround in the 2nd half was built on hauling in an inordinate number of INTs and it does not like the lack of a 2nd pass rusher of note. 

The offense it doesn't love either, but I don't think DVOA has ever been good at disentangling QBs from their support systems so there is likely a lot more residual Fields baked in there than there should be.  Plus it's inherently not going to project a rookie QB to light the world on fire, it would be irresponsible for a projection to think otherwise.

I'm not that down on the team, and honestly the writeup in the FTN Almanac isn't as down on the team as the projection is either.  But I'm expecting something in that 8-9 win neighborhood and fighting for the last wild card.  I firmly believe Williams is going to eventually be that guy, and probably a very good rookie, but just inherently as a rookie he's going to have a handful of stinkers.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Trade for Judon

[Hairyducked Idiot]

14 hours ago, David said:

I'm not gonna put a number to it (mostly because every time I go through the schedule, I end up with what feels like an absurdly high number), but I think this team is better than most people realize.  I think a top 10 defense and a top 15 offense is likely, with the upside of a top 5ish defense and a top 10ish offense.  Those combinations make for very good teams.

The most likely path to downside seems like it's the OL being abysmal.  Fingers crossed that it's adequate, because I think that's all it needs to be.  The other wild card would be having a tough luck run in that late season gauntlet of divisional games.  The inverse is also true, though (run hot and get into a great position).

If Caleb is THAT dude (the type to have a big rookie year - stroud, herbert, prescott, etc. type - something that should be realistic for a prospect of his caliber) and they steer clear of bad injury luck, I have a hard time putting a ceiling on what this team can do, given what is around him.

I can totally see all that happening as the upside, but I think there's downside risk too.

I'm not 100% sold on the secondary that got torched by good QBs somewhat regularly even after the Sweat trade.  I'm not sold on the DL that I'm not sure has a single good player besides Sweat.

The offensive line has massive downside concerns and is paper-thin.  The QB is a rookie and that's a real crapshoot in terms of immediate performance.  And I think people are overlooking how easy it would be for Keenan Allen to hit the wall overnight at his age.

This is one of the hardest teams to project I can remember.  Our roster is built off of two big draft classes that are entering those year 2/3 make or break seasons where you find out if a guy is good or not.  Being a top-10 team wouldn't shock me, but neither would being a bottom-10.

[WrigleyField 22]

3 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Good teams sign good players to extensions all the time. You can’t win without keeping your best players for more than a couple years. 

Many of those teams also tend to manage the cap aggressively (I.e. Philly).  Other teams like KC only would do a deal that early for a Mahomes and otherwise manage the cap much more conservatively, like Poles has.

 

If Poles is about to enter his Howie Roseman era, then sign me up.  But based on how he has shown his cap mgmt style to date it's definitely a questionable risk level to extend DJ two years early.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Good teams sign good players to extensions all the time. You can’t win without keeping your best players for more than a couple years. 
 

and while it was theoretically “unnecessary” because he had two years remaining, that ignores the reality of the situation. You are basically daring him to become a problem next offseason. This team has cap space now. Sign him now to a reasonable number or wait a year and give him more. Both sides had some leverage to not get screwed over. 

Letting him play out his two years and walking was also an option.  

People *hate* the idea of letting players walk because https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion, but it's a perfectly valid play to balance against the risk of overpaying for decline years.

Five years ago, Allen Robinson and Deandre Hopkins were both superestar WRs at about the same age Moore is now, and both turned out to only have one more good season left in them.

I don't hate the Moore extension because we got some discount as repayment for taking on such a large risk, but it's extremely likely we'll be counting down the days until that contract gets off the books before it's over.

[WrigleyField 22]

Also teams who get those discounts with early extension also often times wipe out that benefit by... Extending the player early again.

 

Lane Johnson in Philly comes to mind. He was early extended at least  twice now and for like 9 months in 2022/23 he was the biggest upcoming bargain in the world until Roseman extended him again before the last extension even started to hit.  

[David]

 

 

Edited July 31, 2024 by David

[David]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

FWIW DVOA basically hates the team this year.  It doesn't like that the defensive turnaround in the 2nd half was built on hauling in an inordinate number of INTs and it does not like the lack of a 2nd pass rusher of note. 

The offense it doesn't love either, but I don't think DVOA has ever been good at disentangling QBs from their support systems so there is likely a lot more residual Fields baked in there than there should be.  Plus it's inherently not going to project a rookie QB to light the world on fire, it would be irresponsible for a projection to think otherwise.

I'm not that down on the team, and honestly the writeup in the FTN Almanac isn't as down on the team as the projection is either.  But I'm expecting something in that 8-9 win neighborhood and fighting for the last wild card.  I firmly believe Williams is going to eventually be that guy, and probably a very good rookie, but just inherently as a rookie he's going to have a handful of stinkers.

Given the drastic amount of change on this roster and coaching staff, I think the value of any DVOA numbers is essentially nil until they've had 4-5 weeks worth of games this season.

[UMFan83]

What if anything should we be excited about watching tonight?  Seeing how Bagent has progressed over the offseason?  Velus Jones has seemingly gotta a little buzz in camp, might be worth seeing if there's any validity to that.  Presumably Tory Taylor will play, so I guess looking forward to his punts? lol

TBH I keep forgetting there's a game tonight, but I'll be watching.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Bagent is the only player I really care about seeing.

I think he was a fun case study last year in showing exactly what Justin Fields wasn't doing in the offense, but he wasn't actually good, even for a backup.  The arm was just too erratic.

But, I think he's got the raw athleticism and arm strength to have an NFL adequate arm, the erraticism came from god-awful mechanics.  Which can sometimes be fixed.  Heck, I stilll think there's a very small, very thin probability where his arm takes a leap forward someday and he becomes an NFL starter.  It's a huge longshot, but it's worth keeping an eye on. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Roughly 30 minutes until I remember preseason sports are awful and I watch something else.

[jersey cubs fan]

Can’t wait to just get so pissed off at the tv every Sunday 

[Tryptamine]

#45 might not have a job by 10PM tonight. That was awful. 

[Tryptamine]

"he was good" both announcers talking up Bagent who had 3TD 6INTs

[NOLA]

There’s going to be some TD returns in the NFL this season with the new kickoff rules. A returner makes one guy miss and he’s gone.

[Tryptamine]

Well that drive was tremendously familiar. Get stuffed on a 3rd and 1 run, false start going for it on 4th and 1 so they have to punt. 

[Brian707]

Backup punter too?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We don't even get to see the good punter?

That's all the fake NFL I can handle for one night.

[Tryptamine]

What exactly is the point of this game? Half these guys aren't even 2nd stringers.

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

What exactly is the point of this game? Half these guys aren't even 2nd stringers.

It’s really just to have a game as a showcase for HOF weekend. It’s been like this for years, it’s basically a giant burden for every team involved which is why I’m surprised the NFL made the Bears do this, sacrifice a home game for a UK game and do Hard Knocks all in the same season. 

[Tryptamine]

Let's hope most of these guys on defense tonight don't actually see many snaps, because they are bad.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

What exactly is the point of this game? Half these guys aren't even 2nd stringers.

Part of the HOF festivities. It's like a pre-preseason game.