2025 MLB Draft Thread

[Bertz]

Take Wood at 17 and Russell at 56, get arguably the two best RH fastballs in the draft and call it a day IMO

[Jason Ross]

I'll update this when I have some more concrete information (I know the guy who runs Savermetrics quite well and have asked him to check something for me), but Gage Wood on the surface checks off all of the Cubs boxes. One of the biggest ones we probably haven't talked about is the Ty Nichols factor. To remind anyone who doesn't follow, Nichols is the lead scout in the region. He has had his fingers all over the Jordan Wicks (KSU), Cade Horton (OU) and Jaxon Wiggins (UA) picks. Gage Wood being Arkansas means he's right there under Nichols nose. That likely means:

1. If he's on the board and the Cubs take him, this is another Nichols special.
2. If he's on the board and the Cubs don't take him, either Nichols is less enamored with him, or the Cubs love-love the other guy. 

Maybe he won't be here, and we won't know at all. But if he is, it's probably very telling with how they handle his presence. My hunch is that based on the BA 5.0 mock where they had the Cubs passing on Wood for Aloy, that they would be wrong in that scenario. I have a feeling that if Wood is on the board at 17, that'll be the dude. 

Edit: Update on the top; Ty Nichols himself follows Wood's social medias. I'll see if there are any other local crosscheckers and/or scouts. But you can start to figure out Cubs picks through their social follows. That Nichols himself follows Wood, and he's the guy in the region? Keep that name in your pocket.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

53 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'll update this when I have some more concrete information (I know the guy who runs Savermetrics quite well and have asked him to check something for me), but Gage Wood on the surface checks off all of the Cubs boxes. One of the biggest ones we probably haven't talked about is the Ty Nichols factor. To remind anyone who doesn't follow, Nichols is the lead scout in the region. He has had his fingers all over the Jordan Wicks (KSU), Cade Horton (OU) and Jaxon Wiggins (UA) picks. Gage Wood being Arkansas means he's right there under Nichols nose. That likely means:

1. If he's on the board and the Cubs take him, this is another Nichols special.
2. If he's on the board and the Cubs don't take him, either Nichols is less enamored with him, or the Cubs love-love the other guy. 

Maybe he won't be here, and we won't know at all. But if he is, it's probably very telling with how they handle his presence. My hunch is that based on the BA 5.0 mock where they had the Cubs passing on Wood for Aloy, that they would be wrong in that scenario. I have a feeling that if Wood is on the board at 17, that'll be the dude. 

Edit: Update on the top; Ty Nichols himself follows Wood's social medias. I'll see if there are any other local crosscheckers and/or scouts. But you can start to figure out Cubs picks through their social follows. That Nichols himself follows Wood, and he's the guy in the region? Keep that name in your pocket.

Or #3: They don't like Wood's medicals. He missed time this spring with a shoulder injury which is a lot less cut and dry than Horton and Wiggins' TJS.

And yes, Ty Nichols would be Gage Wood's area scout...but he would also cover Wehiwa Aloy.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Or #3: They don't like Wood's medicals. He missed time this spring with a shoulder injury which is a lot less cut and dry than Horton and Wiggins' TJS.

And yes, Ty Nichols would be Gage Wood's area scout...but he would also cover Wehiwa Aloy.

Oh, I meant #2 as an all encompassing reasoning for not being enamored. Either stuff, projection, injuries...all of it! Mostly, I think if Wood is on the board at #17, regardless of taking him or not, it'll tell us, maybe not exactly  how they feel about him, but be very telling. I think it'll be more cut-and-dry than most "passes".

And yeah, Nichols would. I usually associate Nichols with pitching, however. At least as of recently, most of the Nichols pulls have come on the mound. But certainly, Aloy would be a possibility. I like Aloy, though I waffle on whether or not he hits the Cubs likes. One day I'll convince myself he fits, and other I wonder if he does.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

25 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Oh, I meant #2 as an all encompassing reasoning for not being enamored. Either stuff, projection, injuries...all of it! Mostly, I think if Wood is on the board at #17, regardless of taking him or not, it'll tell us, maybe not exactly  how they feel about him, but be very telling. I think it'll be more cut-and-dry than most "passes".

And yeah, Nichols would. I usually associate Nichols with pitching, however. At least as of recently, most of the Nichols pulls have come on the mound. But certainly, Aloy would be a possibility. I like Aloy, though I waffle on whether or not he hits the Cubs likes. One day I'll convince myself he fits, and other I wonder if he does.

While Aloy is normally available at 17 in most mocks, I honestly would be surprised if he hadn't been picked already on draft day. His profile just doesn't seem like one that should be available that far into the draft (a for-sure college SSs with 20 HR power potential).

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

While Aloy is normally available at 17 in most mocks, I honestly would be surprised if he hadn't been picked already on draft day. His profile just doesn't seem like one that should be available that far into the draft (a for-sure college SSs with 20 HR power potential).

Oh, yeah, agree. I think it was back in...April or even March...I mentioned him near my top board. I like the skillset. I do wonder if some of the swing and miss question in his game scares the Cubs away; they have tended to shy more contact profile (though aggressive contact). It's why I waffle on Aloy. Do they like some of the contact he's shown and the power and position? Do they go away from a Cape performer? Do they take some of the swing and miss questions? 

He's an interesting name. Gut says Wood fits a profile the Cubs like, but the injuries are concerning. Gut says they like a Steele Hall (they've been connected each of the last two years to a "Trea Turner" type). Zumach mentioned they really liked Pierce. 

It'll be interesting to see how they go here.

[CubinNY]

I want no part of Gavin Kilen so I hope he gets picked before 17.. I know BPA and all but, they are chalk full of those profiles and don't need another one. 

[Tryptamine]

5 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I want no part of Gavin Kilen so I hope he gets picked before 17.. I know BPA and all but, they are chalk full of those profiles and don't need another one. 

I'd not enthralled with the thought of another fairly safe bet with a ceiling of more solid major league hitter than star type pick, but I'm not exactly enthralled with guys like Aloy either. The Cubs haven't really shown any ability to get hitters to reduce their swing and miss issues. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[JBears79]

Aloy screams Dansby Swanson to me minus the elite D. And im not shiting on Swanson here. Hes been a good MLB player for his career.

[Tryptamine]

I'll probably change my mind a dozen times but this is kind of where I am right now.

Who I want:

Steele Hall

Gage Wood

Tyler Bremner

 

Who I expect the Cubs to take:

Gavin Kilen

Wehiwa Aloy

Tyler Bremner

 

[Outshined_One]

It's the curse of picking where they're picking; their options will either be lottery tickets with lingering injury/production/inexperience questions or productive college guys whose realistic best case scenario involves a career on the bench or in the bullpen.

The only way I'm going to be upset this draft is if they pull another Hayden Simpson-esque reach and pinch pennies in later rounds.  Otherwise, I can't get mad if they pop someone like Aloy or Kilen.

[Hrubes20]

On 7/1/2025 at 8:54 AM, CubinNY said:

I want no part of Gavin Kilen so I hope he gets picked before 17.. I know BPA and all but, they are chalk full of those profiles and don't need another one. 

Same.  He's easily my least favorite of the names being bandied about.  He swung a wet noodle in nearly 200 PAs on the Cape.

He probably won't be there, and the K's are horrendous, but Jace Laviolette would be fun as hell.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Named After Maddux]

On 6/30/2025 at 3:12 PM, Jason Ross said:

I'll update this when I have some more concrete information (I know the guy who runs Savermetrics quite well and have asked him to check something for me), but Gage Wood on the surface checks off all of the Cubs boxes. One of the biggest ones we probably haven't talked about is the Ty Nichols factor. To remind anyone who doesn't follow, Nichols is the lead scout in the region. He has had his fingers all over the Jordan Wicks (KSU), Cade Horton (OU) and Jaxon Wiggins (UA) picks. Gage Wood being Arkansas means he's right there under Nichols nose. That likely means:

1. If he's on the board and the Cubs take him, this is another Nichols special.
2. If he's on the board and the Cubs don't take him, either Nichols is less enamored with him, or the Cubs love-love the other guy. 

Maybe he won't be here, and we won't know at all. But if he is, it's probably very telling with how they handle his presence. My hunch is that based on the BA 5.0 mock where they had the Cubs passing on Wood for Aloy, that they would be wrong in that scenario. I have a feeling that if Wood is on the board at 17, that'll be the dude. 

Edit: Update on the top; Ty Nichols himself follows Wood's social medias. I'll see if there are any other local crosscheckers and/or scouts. But you can start to figure out Cubs picks through their social follows. That Nichols himself follows Wood, and he's the guy in the region? Keep that name in your pocket.

The other factor to consider is what the pitching development team thinks of Gage Wood. He’s a heavy North-South pronator and the org has primarily targeted supinators. It wouldn’t surprise me to see quite the discussion where the scouting side (you got the area scout right) and PD have some hearty debates on Gage Wood.

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Named After Maddux said:

The other factor to consider is what the pitching development team thinks of Gage Wood. He’s a heavy North-South pronator and the org has primarily targeted supinators. It wouldn’t surprise me to see quite the discussion where the scouting side (you got the area scout right) and PD have some hearty debates on Gage Wood.

Oh for sure! That's a good point on his pronate/supernate; wasn't even thinking about it right then. I find Wood fascinating. Lance Brodzowski swayed me on Kyson Witherspoon as a massive developmentally fun arm too in his recent breakdown on him (I always thought he looked funky when he threw, but probably factored that too much into things). I've probably been too focused on hitters (between Hall and Pierce who you have mentioned, Aloy, etc) so lately been digging more into the college arms. Just doesn't feel they'll go prep arm, but who knows?

I'm really excited for this pick. Maybe more than other years because of the discourse on it being a "less exciting" year in terms of prospects and where the Cubs pick. I really like how Kantrovitz and Co run the draft and they seem to do well (the 2022 draft hasn't been the best so far and the Cubs found Horton and Ferris - who was used to bring in Busch - despite it being an "off the board" pick in away). Interested to see what they go with picking a little deeper into the first round.

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Named After Maddux said:

The other factor to consider is what the pitching development team thinks of Gage Wood. He’s a heavy North-South pronator and the org has primarily targeted supinators. It wouldn’t surprise me to see quite the discussion where the scouting side (you got the area scout right) and PD have some hearty debates on Gage Wood.

I'm curious to see if this shifts.  I think it'd be pretty easy to imagine this was a Breslow thing that gets phased out under new leadership.

[Named After Maddux]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm curious to see if this shifts.  I think it'd be pretty easy to imagine this was a Breslow thing that gets phased out under new leadership.

It’ll be interesting to see how much sway Zombro has in amateur scouting. I know he’s involved, but does he have veto power or is it more an opinion as one of the people in the room? Not sure.
But Zombro is publicly a huge proponent of supination bias and a good number of recent signings and targets have shown that out.

[Outshined_One]

TIL I learned new words.

Anyone want to expound on pronate/supinate and how they relate to pitching?

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

TIL I learned new words.

Anyone want to expound on pronate/supinate and how they relate to pitching?

I could pretend to do a better job of explaining this than FanGraphs, but I'd be lying to you. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-visual-scouting-primer-pitching-part-three/

This is a great resource. I learned a lot.

[Named After Maddux]

4 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

TIL I learned new words.

Anyone want to expound on pronate/supinate and how they relate to pitching?

Kind of a quick and dirty explanation here. First, it’s an oversimplification and some in the biomechanics-focused pitching side would argue is poor to oversimplify it, but  it’s still helpful to look at a lot of pitchers and put them into buckets.

These terms refer to how a pitcher releases a baseball. Pronators tend to be behind the ball with a wrist that naturally stays more in line with rest of the forearm. Supination is a wrist more to the side. Think supination like “soup” where if you had a bowl of soup that you were trying to eat, your wrist would supinate with your spoon to hold the soup. If you were pronating with a spoon then the spoon would be held sideways and wouldn’t hold soup.

What that means for pitching? Pronators tend to be able to generate a lot of backspin on a fastball. These fastballs have a high active spin%, meaning the majority of spin leads to movement (usually vertical break). Pronators tend to have high carry fastballs, changeups, and a cutter/slider/downward curve. Thats the pronator triangle. Think what the Astros and Dodgers prioritized in 2017-2022: high carry fastballs, hard curve.

Supinators tend to get to the side of the baseball better and often (not always) have deeper arsenals. The fastballs tend to be less sexy on Stuff+ and are these cutty/cut-ride (if you’re able to get ride) four seams. They have historically struggled with changeups though the kick-change was developed to accommodate supinators. Supinators adopting sweepers was the big move a couple years ago. 

All of this is just a motor preference and I believe the most recent data suggests about 6-7% of pitchers can get both heavy carry on their four seam and heavy sweep on a sweeper. This is like Nick Pivetta. Also angle plays in really well so I’d highly recommend this pertinent video from Zombro.

You can bucket pitchers by the active% percentage to at least get an idea of their preferences. <85% (supinators), >95% pronators, middle is a neutral bias. Most fall in one of the first or latter categories.

Ok maybe that wasn’t quick and dirty, but just some thoughts I had!

My personal feeling is that teams shouldn’t zero in on any one bias at the expense of the others. You’re liable to miss talent if you do. And so while I talk about how Zombro feels publicly about supinators, I don’t personally feel it should limit away from a guy like Gage Wood or Bremner or Witherspoon. All really good arms.

[Tim]

Awesome stuff, gents. 

In general, I'd think you'd ideally want a variety of different looks so that hitters don't get locked into the same profile of pitching across a series. I could see some theoretical arguments in the other direction, but I'd need to see data to back them up:

• one style of pitching being much more susceptible to injury
• one style of pitching maximizing probability of success over the other
• much more organizational strength at maximizing one style over the other

The first two would be legitimate reasons to go with one versus the other, but I have no idea if data backs up either point. The third one seems like more of a reason to boost the organization rather than favoring one profile over the other.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 7/5/2025 at 6:02 AM, Named After Maddux said:

The other factor to consider is what the pitching development team thinks of Gage Wood. He’s a heavy North-South pronator and the org has primarily targeted supinators. It wouldn’t surprise me to see quite the discussion where the scouting side (you got the area scout right) and PD have some hearty debates on Gage Wood.

BA had a piece on Statcast data on 15 draft pitching prospects and they mentioned Tennessee's Nate Snead was a supinator who fits the Yankees archetype: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/15-mlb-draft-prospects-with-intriguing-pitch-data-statcast-standouts/

The Riley Quick write-up was interesting too. He seems like he naturally picks up new pitches well and there's still a lot a forward-thinking pitching org can help him with.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45677790/2025-mlb-draft-guide-one-big-question-intel-nationals-angels-mariners

I would think Jace Laviolette wouldn't fit Kantrovitz' models.

[CaliforniaRaisin]